# Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?

Between 2025 and 2035?

Updated: April 5, 2026

Category: Politics

HTML: /markets/politics/will-any-u-s-state-experience-a-population-decrease-of-at-least-10-between-2025-and-2035/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect that any U.S.** state will experience a population decrease of at least **10%** between 2025 and 2035, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Louisiana property insurance easing may mitigate out-migration from the state.** - Colorado River Tier 3 shortage could drive migration from affected states.
- Illinois's bond downgrades reflect fiscal instability potentially driving out-migration.
- A **1.05%** annual net out-migration results in a **10%** decade decline.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **23%** **probability** (vs 19c **market**) implies a 5.3x payout multiple, noting **10%** decline requires sustained outmigration.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Between 2025 and 2035? | 19.0% | 23.0% | State-level political changes, such as new tax laws or social policies, could drive significant out-migration. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 23.0% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 19.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Between 2025 and 2035?
- Edge: +4.0pp
- Expected Return: +20.9%
- R-Score: 0.40
- Total Volume: $800
- 24h Volume: $0
- Open Interest: $436

- Expiration: December 30, 2036

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for "Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?" has exhibited a stable, sideways trading pattern. The price has remained within a narrow 8-point range, fluctuating between a low of 11.0% and a high of 19.0%. The market opened at 19.0% and is currently at the same level, indicating no significant net change in sentiment over the 42 data points. The upper bound of 19.0% has acted as a resistance level, while 11.0% has served as the primary support. The lack of any significant price spikes or drops means there have been no major market-moving events reflected in the trading activity.

The total trading volume is extremely low, with only 46 contracts traded in total. This low volume suggests a lack of significant market participation and conviction from traders. The price action, characterized by stability rather than volatility, combined with the minimal trading activity, points to a market consensus that has remained largely unchallenged since its inception. Without any specific news or developments provided as context, the price movements within the established range cannot be attributed to any external factors.

Overall, the chart suggests a consistent but low-confidence market sentiment that a U.S. state will see a population decrease of this magnitude. The probability has consistently been priced below 20%, indicating traders view this as an unlikely event. The market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, with the low volume indicating that few participants have felt compelled to take a strong position or react to new information.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if any U.S. state experiences a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opens on August 13, 2025, and will close early if the event occurs, or by December 30, 2036, if it does not. Payout is projected 30 minutes after closing, and persons employed by source agencies or possessing material non-public information are prohibited from trading.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Between 2025 and 2035? | 11% | 19% | 19% | $800 | $436 |

## Do Alaskan Oil or WV Gas Price Floors Project Migration?

Alaska Peak Net Out-migration | Nearly 12,000 residents (2017) [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/article/oil-budgets-migration-and-retirees-alaskas-2015-18-recession.htm) |
Alaska Population Loss Factors | Fewer births, more deaths, ongoing out-migration [[^]](https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2026/03/04/alaska-population-loss-looms-with-fewer-births-and-more-deaths-in-an-aging-population/) |
WV Economic Outlook Reports | West Virginia Economic Outlook 2024-2029 and 2023-2028 [[^]](https://business.wvu.edu/research-outreach/bureau-of-business-and-economic-research/economic-outlook-conferences-and-reports/economic-outlook-reports/west-virginia-economic-outlook-2024-2029) |

**The provided research does not explicitly identify specific price floors**

The provided research does not explicitly identify specific price floors. According to state-level economic forecasting models from sources like Moody's Analytics or state university research centers, precise quantitative projections for crude oil in Alaska or natural gas in West Virginia that would trigger a 7-**10%** net out-migration over a subsequent decade are not offered. While economic outlooks and population trends for both states are discussed, the exact thresholds requested are not specified in the available research.

Alaska's history shows oil price drops correlate with out-migration. During the 2015-2018 recession, crude oil prices significantly declined from over **$100** per barrel in 2014 to below **$30** per barrel in 2016. This decrease led to reduced government spending, job losses, and substantial net out-migration, which peaked at nearly 12,000 residents in 2017 [[^]](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/article/oil-budgets-migration-and-retirees-alaskas-2015-18-recession.htm). Alaska currently continues to experience population loss due to factors such as fewer births, more deaths, and ongoing out-migration [[^]](https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2026/03/04/alaska-population-loss-looms-with-fewer-births-and-more-deaths-in-an-aging-population/).

West Virginia economic outlooks do not specify a gas price floor. Reports from the John Chambers College of Business and Economics at West Virginia University, including the "West Virginia Economic Outlook 2024-2029" and "West Virginia Economic Outlook 2023-2028," provide economic forecasts and discuss population changes [[^]](https://business.wvu.edu/research-outreach/bureau-of-business-and-economic-research/economic-outlook-conferences-and-reports/economic-outlook-reports/west-virginia-economic-outlook-2024-2029). However, these outlooks, along with other news articles on the state's population trends, do not specify a natural gas price floor that would project a 7-**10%** net out-migration over a ten-year period [[^]](https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/in-migration-offers-hope-as-population-tax-base-shrinks/article_412e6e68-f2fd-4d50-839e-4f1270d5489b.html).

## How Are Louisiana Property Insurance Rates and Reinsurance Easing?

Homeowner Rate Cuts | 7.5% by some Louisiana reciprocal insurers [[^]](https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/property/louisiana-reciprocals-cut-homeowners-rates-7-5-as-reinsurance-costs-ease-559956.aspx) |
Catastrophe Bond Secured by Louisiana Citizens | $280 million (Bayou Re 2025-1) [[^]](https://www.artemis.bm/news/louisiana-citizens-secures-its-largest-cat-bond-40-upsized-280m-bayou-re-2025-1/) |
Hurricane Katrina Insured Losses | $40 billion to $60 billion [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL33086.html) |

**Reinsurance rates for 2024-2025 show positive market adjustments in Louisiana for primary property insurers**

Reinsurance rates for 2024-2025 show positive **market** adjustments in Louisiana for primary property insurers. These easing renewal rates have allowed some Louisiana reciprocal insurers to cut homeowners' insurance rates by **7.5%** [[^]](https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/property/louisiana-reciprocals-cut-homeowners-rates-7-5-as-reinsurance-costs-ease-559956.aspx). With reinsurers reportedly seeing profits, there are discussions and expectations for potential drops in home insurance rates across the state [[^]](https://www.nola.com/news/with-reinsurers-seeing-profits-can-louisiana-expect-home-insurance-rates-to-drop/article_29c73466-eb3c-4f68-86db-f8f8744aad7b.html). While available sources do not specify a declared underwriting capacity for primary property insurers in high-risk coastal parishes, the reduction in reinsurance costs and subsequent decrease in primary insurance rates suggest improved **market** conditions, typically correlating with increased insurer **confidence** and willingness to underwrite.

Louisiana Citizens bolstered financial resilience, but a funding gap is not projected. The state's insurer of last resort secured its largest catastrophe bond to date in late 2024, the **$280** million Bayou Re 2025-1, which provides significant reinsurance protection [[^]](https://www.artemis.bm/news/louisiana-citizens-secures-its-largest-cat-bond-40-upsized-280m-bayou-re-2025-1/). Despite Louisiana Citizens reporting a strong financial position and a continued decline in its policy count as of January 2021 [[^]](https://ldi.la.gov/news/press-releases/1-15-21-la-citizens-sees-continued-drop-in-policy-count-and-strong-financial-position), the provided sources do not offer a specific projection for a funding gap in a scenario modeled after Hurricane Katrina's insured losses. Hurricane Katrina resulted in estimated insured losses ranging from **$40** billion to **$60** billion [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL33086.html). While the **$280** million catastrophe bond enhances Citizens' ability to manage large-scale events, the available research does not detail its total financial capacity or quantify a potential shortfall against a multi-billion dollar disaster of Katrina's magnitude.

## What Triggers a Colorado River Tier 3 Shortage and Its Impacts?

Lake Mead Tier 3 Trigger | Below 1,025 feet (Bureau of Reclamation 2007 Interim Guidelines [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45546)) |
Non-Indian Ag Water Reduction | 100% elimination (Central Arizona Project [[^]](https://www.cap-az.com/cap-system/planning-and-processes/shortage-impacts/impacts-by-priority-pool/)) |
Other CAP M&I Pool Reduction | 240,000 acre-feet from normal allocation (Central Arizona Project [[^]](https://www.cap-az.com/cap-system/planning-and-processes/shortage-impacts/impacts-by-priority-pool/)) |

**Lake Mead's 1,025-foot elevation triggers a Tier 3 shortage**

Lake Mead's 1,025-foot elevation triggers a Tier 3 shortage. Under the Bureau of Reclamation's current operating guidelines, a Tier 3 shortage on the Colorado River is declared when Lake Mead is projected to fall below an elevation of 1,025 feet above sea level [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45546). This specific elevation is outlined in the Bureau of Reclamation's 2007 Interim Guidelines, supplemented by the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan, and marks the most severe shortage declaration within the established framework [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45546).

Tier 3 shortage brings severe cuts to Arizona's water. Upon such a declaration, the Central Arizona Project (CAP) faces substantial water reductions. All non-Indian agricultural water allocation from the CAP is eliminated, constituting a **100%** reduction for this priority group [[^]](https://www.cap-az.com/cap-system/planning-and-processes/shortage-impacts/impacts-by-priority-pool/). Furthermore, while municipal and industrial (M&I) supplies for urban areas like Phoenix and Tucson experience cuts in earlier shortage tiers, these reductions become significantly more severe under a Tier 3 scenario [[^]](https://www.cap-az.com/cap-system/planning-and-processes/shortage-impacts/impacts-by-priority-pool/). For instance, the 'Other CAP M&I Pool (Non-Indian Priority)' would see a substantial cut of 240,000 acre-feet from its normal allocation, profoundly impacting urban water availability [[^]](https://www.cap-az.com/cap-system/planning-and-processes/shortage-impacts/impacts-by-priority-pool/).

## What Factors Led to Illinois's Bond Downgrade?

Illinois bond downgrade date | June 2017 [[^]](https://www.illinoispolicy.org/moodys-downgrades-illinois-to-1-notch-above-junk-warns-state-pension-liabilities-top-250b/) |
Illinois unfunded pension liabilities (2017) | Over $250 billion [[^]](https://www.illinoispolicy.org/moodys-downgrades-illinois-to-1-notch-above-junk-warns-state-pension-liabilities-top-250b/) |
Illinois current investment-grade ratings | Baa3 (Moody's), BBB- (S&P) as of August 2025 [[^]](https://capitalmarkets.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/capitalmarkets/documents/presentations/Information%20Summary%20of%20August%202025%20State%20of%20Illinois%20Ratings%20Presentation.pdf) |

**Credit agencies downgraded Illinois's bonds to near-junk status in 2017**

Credit agencies downgraded Illinois's bonds to near-junk status in 2017. In June 2017, both Moody's and S&P downgraded Illinois's general obligation bonds to one step above non-investment grade, or 'junk' status. Moody's specifically cited unfunded pension liabilities exceeding **$250** billion as a significant factor in their decision [[^]](https://www.illinoispolicy.org/moodys-downgrades-illinois-to-1-notch-above-junk-warns-state-pension-liabilities-top-250b/). S&P similarly referenced the state's 'very weak funded status' of its pensions and a prolonged budget stalemate as reasons for its downgrade [[^]](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210330-pension-spotlight-illinois-11877910). As of August 2025, Illinois's general obligation bonds continue to hold the lowest investment-grade ratings: Baa3 from Moody's and BBB- from S&P [[^]](https://capitalmarkets.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/capitalmarkets/documents/presentations/Information%20Summary%20of%20August%**202025%**20State%20of%20Illinois%20Ratings%20Presentation.pdf).

No specific liability threshold or population change data was identified. While credit rating agencies consistently identify substantial unfunded pension liabilities as a major credit challenge for Illinois, the research does not specify a precise unfunded pension liability threshold as a percentage of state GDP that would signal a probable downgrade to non-investment grade status. Furthermore, the available research materials do not contain specific historical 5-year population change data for U.S. sub-sovereign entities, such as Detroit or Puerto Rico, following a downgrade to non-investment grade status. Although Detroit's journey from junk bonds to investment grade is mentioned, population changes during or after its period of non-investment grade status are not detailed [[^]](https://detroitmi.gov/news/detroits-journey-junk-bonds-investment-grade-complete-sp-double-notch-rating-upgrade-second-such-0).

## What Annual Outflow Creates a 10% Population Decline?

Illinois Annual Outflow for 10% Decline | 125,494 exemptions (individuals) [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data) |
West Virginia Annual Outflow for 10% Decline | 17,700 exemptions (individuals) [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data) |
IRS Exemption Definition | Generally represents individuals, including tax filers and their dependents [[^]](https://pioneerinstitute.org/tax-flight-takes-off-irs-data-reveal-surge-of-massachusetts-residents-fleeing-to-tax-friendly-states-following-the-4-percent-surtax/) |

**Achieving a 10% population decline requires significant sustained annual outmigration**

Achieving a **10%** population decline requires significant sustained annual outmigration. To realize a **10%** cumulative population decline over a 10-year period, a state like Illinois would require a sustained annual net outflow of approximately 125,494 exemptions. For a state like West Virginia, the requirement would be an annual net outflow of about 17,700 exemptions. The IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) migration data tracks the movement of "exemptions," which generally represent individuals, encompassing tax filers and their dependents, thus serving as a proxy for population shifts [[^]](https://pioneerinstitute.org/tax-flight-takes-off-irs-data-reveal-surge-of-massachusetts-residents-fleeing-to-tax-friendly-states-following-the-4-percent-surtax/). The IRS provides detailed migration data by state, showing net migration of these exemptions [[^]](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data).

Illinois needs an annual outflow of over 125,000 individuals. Using a recent population estimate for Illinois of approximately 12,549,438 (as of July 1, 2023) [[^]](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2020-2023/methods-statement-v2023.pdf), a **10%** population decline over a decade translates to a total loss of 1,254,944 people. To achieve this cumulative loss, the state would need to experience an average annual loss of 125,494 people. Consequently, Illinois would need a sustained annual net outflow of approximately 125,494 exemptions to reach a **10%** cumulative population decline over a decade.

West Virginia requires a sustained annual outflow of 17,700 individuals. Similarly, for West Virginia, with a recent population estimate of approximately 1,770,000 (as of July 1, 2023) [[^]](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2020-2023/methods-statement-v2023.pdf), a **10%** decline over ten years would mean a total loss of 177,000 people. This necessitates an average annual loss of 17,700 people. Therefore, West Virginia would need a sustained annual net outflow of approximately 17,700 exemptions to experience a **10%** cumulative population decline over the same 10-year period.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** December 30, 2036
- **Closes:** December 30, 2036

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.