# When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? In 2026 Updated: April 19, 2026 Category: Politics HTML: /markets/politics/when-will-the-house-pass-a-reconciliation-bill/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the House to pass a reconciliation bill before Jan 1, 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - House reconciliation vote highly probable mid-2026 or later.** - Republican leadership targets budget reconciliation for fiscal years 2026 or 2027. - Reconciliation bills average 92 days for House passage in new administrations. - House Freedom Caucus poses a key procedural bottleneck for reconciliation bills. - House Republican leadership delayed markups over Senate's "Byrd bath" concerns. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **1.1%** **probability** is marginally above the **1.0%** **market** (100x payout at 1c), citing procedural hurdles for 2026. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Before May 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.1% | Model higher by 0.1pp | | Before May 22, 2026 | 53.0% | 50.4% | Market higher by 2.6pp | | Before Jun 12, 2026 | 55.0% | 52.3% | Market higher by 2.7pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Before May 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.1% | | Before May 22, 2026 | 53.0% | 50.4% | | Before Jun 12, 2026 | 55.0% | 52.3% | | Before Jul 3, 2026 | 62.0% | 59.1% | | Before Jan 1, 2027 | 88.0% | 86.3% | - Expiration: January 1, 2027 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market shows a consistent and strong belief that the House will not pass a reconciliation bill in 2026. The price has remained in a narrow, low-probability band between 0.8% and 12.0% for its entire duration, indicating a sideways trend. After opening at 3.0%, the market's probability assessment has generally declined, currently sitting at 1.0%. The most significant movement was a spike to a high of 12.0%, but this peak was not sustained, and the price quickly returned to the lower end of its trading range. Without external news or context provided, the specific cause for this temporary spike cannot be determined from the chart data alone. The market has established clear technical levels. There is a firm support floor around the 1.0% mark, a price the market has frequently returned to and is currently trading at. The peak of 12.0% has acted as a strong resistance level, representing the highest point of optimism before sellers stepped in. Trading volume appears to be relatively low overall, with a total of 20,616 contracts traded across 173 data points. The low volume suggests that price swings, including the spike to 12.0%, could be caused by a small number of trades rather than a broad shift in market conviction. Overall, the price action reflects a deeply pessimistic market sentiment regarding the passage of a reconciliation bill in 2026. The consistent trading at very low probabilities, combined with the failure to sustain any upward momentum, indicates a strong consensus that this event is highly unlikely. The low trading volume further suggests a lack of significant disagreement with this pessimistic outlook. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Before Jun 12, 2026 #### πŸ“‰ April 17, 2026: 17.0pp drop Price decreased from 75.0% to 58.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### πŸ“ˆ April 12, 2026: 12.0pp spike Price increased from 49.0% to 61.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Before May 22, 2026 #### πŸ“ˆ April 16, 2026: 15.0pp spike Price increased from 42.0% to 57.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### πŸ“ˆ April 11, 2026: 22.0pp spike Price increased from 21.0% to 43.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Before Jul 3, 2026 #### πŸ“‰ April 08, 2026: 11.0pp drop Price decreased from 68.0% to 57.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to "Yes" if the House of Representatives passes a reconciliation bill, typically identified by the phrase "To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…", before May 22, 2026. If no such bill passes by this deadline, the market resolves to "No." The market opened on March 25, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT, and will close early if the event occurs, or by May 22, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT if it does not, with outcomes verified by the Library of Congress and projected payout 25 hours after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Before Jan 1, 2027 | 85% | 87% | 88% | $1,959.21 | $553.21 | | Before Jul 3, 2026 | 78% | 86% | 62% | $1,676 | $857 | | Before Jun 12, 2026 | 51% | 56% | 55% | $8,917.73 | $3,588.73 | | Before May 1, 2026 | 1% | 2% | 1% | $36,550.32 | $28,881.32 | | Before May 22, 2026 | 52% | 53% | 53% | $4,072.99 | $1,662.5 | ## What are the GOP's Post-2024 Budget Reconciliation Plans? Reconciliation Plan | GOP leadership plans to use budget reconciliation for fiscal years 2026 or 2027 [[^]](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/03/gop-moving-forward-with-new-reconciliation-bill-with-money-for-defense-graham/) | Key Fiscal Policy | Explicitly planned large-scale fiscal policy is providing money for defense [[^]](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/03/gop-moving-forward-with-new-reconciliation-bill-with-money-for-defense-graham/) | Package Approach | Senate GOP leadership aims for an "anorexic-like" (focused) reconciliation package [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/senate-gop-leadership-wants-anorexic-150452824.html) | **Republican leadership plans a focused budget reconciliation for fiscal years 2026 or 2027** Republican leadership plans a focused budget reconciliation for fiscal years 2026 or 2027. Following the 2024 election, Republican (GOP) majority party leadership explicitly intends to utilize the budget reconciliation process for fiscal years 2026 or 2027 [[^]](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/03/gop-moving-forward-with-new-reconciliation-bill-with-money-for-defense-graham/). Senate GOP Leadership has indicated a preference for a highly focused, "anorexic-like" reconciliation package [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/senate-gop-leadership-wants-anorexic-150452824.html). This strategic approach aligns with an incoming administration's objective to swiftly enact significant legislative components of a "Trump agenda 2.0" during its initial period, mirroring proposed legislative agendas for a "Trump administration's 1st 30 days" in early 2026 [[^]](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/incoming-gop-senate-majority-leader-unveils-agenda-trump-first-30-days.print). Defense spending is the most explicitly planned reconciliation measure for the GOP. A specific large-scale fiscal policy that the GOP is explicitly advancing for a new reconciliation bill is "money for defense" [[^]](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/03/gop-moving-forward-with-new-reconciliation-bill-with-money-for-defense-graham/). Senator Graham articulated this plan in March 2026, underscoring its urgency and priority within the party's agenda for FY2026/2027 [[^]](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/03/gop-moving-forward-with-new-reconciliation-bill-with-money-for-defense-graham/). While broader legislative agendas for this period, such as the "final framework 2.0" from January 2026 [[^]](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/01/final-framework-2.0.pdf), often encompass major fiscal changes like the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, the explicit link for reconciliation in the provided sources is strongest for defense spending [[^]](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/03/gop-moving-forward-with-new-reconciliation-bill-with-money-for-defense-graham/). Budget resolutions for FY2025 and setting levels for FY2026 through 2034, such as H.Con.Res.14 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14) and S.Con.Res.22 [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/link/bills/119/sconres/22?link-type=pdf), establish the necessary procedural framework for such reconciliation measures. ## How Long Does Budget Reconciliation Take in New Administrations? Historical Average Duration | Approximately 92 days [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20160223_RL30458_7d64b3b93c103876356eea41dbbb8d38c1e727e0.html) | Historical Median Duration | 51 days [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20160223_RL30458_7d64b3b93c103876356eea41dbbb8d38c1e727e0.html) | Range of Duration | 33 days to 326 days [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20160223_RL30458_7d64b3b93c103876356eea41dbbb8d38c1e727e0.html) | **Reconciliation bills average 92 days to House passage in new administrations** Reconciliation bills average 92 days to House passage in new administrations. Between 1980 and 2024, the historical average time from the adoption of a Congressional budget resolution containing reconciliation instructions to the final House passage of the resulting reconciliation bill, specifically during the first two years of a new presidential administration, was approximately 92 days. The median time for this process was 51 days. These figures are derived from six instances, including notable legislation such as the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20160223_RL30458_7d64b3b93c103876356eea41dbbb8d38c1e727e0.html). Timelines for reconciliation bills show significant variation over time. The duration for these reconciliation bills has varied considerably, ranging from a minimum of 33 days for the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 to a maximum of 326 days for the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010. The extensive 326-day period for the 2010 bill, which was integral to the broader Affordable Care Act legislative initiative, substantially impacts the overall average. If this outlier is excluded, the average time would be notably shorter, more closely aligning with the 51-day median [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20160223_RL30458_7d64b3b93c103876356eea41dbbb8d38c1e727e0.html). ## What are the House Freedom Caucus's reconciliation demands? Primary Bottleneck | House Freedom Caucus for reconciliation bills beyond Q2 2026 [[^]](https://cloud.house.gov/posts/freedom-caucus-ready-for-a-big-beautiful-battle) | Key Policy Demands | Immigration freeze and broad spending cuts [[^]](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-freedom-caucus-lays-out-gop-battle-plan-ahead-republicans-huddle-trump?intcmp=xpal_politics) | DHS Funding Stance | Rejected GOP leaders' plan to fund DHS [[^]](https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2026/04/07/House-Freedom-Caucus-Rejects-GOP-Leaders-Plan-Fund-DHS) | **The House Freedom Caucus is a key procedural bottleneck, particularly for reconciliation bills beyond Q2 2026** The House Freedom Caucus is a key procedural bottleneck, particularly for reconciliation bills beyond Q2 2026. This caucus consistently poses a primary procedural bottleneck due to its history of readiness for legislative battles and resulting tension with Republican leadership [[^]](https://cloud.house.gov/posts/freedom-caucus-ready-for-a-big-beautiful-battle). A significant example of this dynamic occurred when the caucus rejected GOP leaders' plan to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2026 [[^]](https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2026/04/07/House-Freedom-Caucus-Rejects-GOP-Leaders-Plan-Fund-DHS), despite having previously advocated for full DHS funding within a GOP-only reconciliation bill [[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5819560-freedom-caucus-dhs-reconciliation/). Their actions regarding reconciliation have frequently generated growing tension among Republicans [[^]](https://punchbowl.news/article/washington/gop-recon-tensions/). Specific policy demands from the Freedom Caucus could significantly delay any reconciliation bill. These demands include an immigration freeze and broad spending cuts, which were outlined in their "battle plan" [[^]](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-freedom-caucus-lays-out-gop-battle-plan-ahead-republicans-huddle-trump?intcmp=xpal_politics). The caucus's stance on DHS funding also represents a major sticking point; their rejection of leadership's funding plan underscores a demand for precise budgetary allocations within any reconciliation framework [[^]](https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2026/04/07/House-Freedom-Caucus-Rejects-GOP-Leaders-Plan-Fund-DHS). While a GOP framework for "reconciliation 2.0" focusing on energy has been unveiled [[^]](https://www.eenews.net/articles/gop-unveils-energy-heavy-framework-for-reconciliation-2-0/) and a specific document "final-framework-2.0.pdf" exists [[^]](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/01/final-framework-2.0.pdf), the Freedom Caucus's distinct demands for immigration reform and spending cuts signal potential friction if these priorities are not adequately addressed [[^]](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-freedom-caucus-lays-out-gop-battle-plan-ahead-republicans-huddle-trump?intcmp=xpal_politics). ## Why Are House Reconciliation Markups Currently Being Delayed? Markup Delays | House GOP leadership has delayed reconciliation markups [[^]](https://cossa.org/house-republicans-delay-markups-reconciliation-subject-to-byrd-bath/) | Senate Review Process | Reconciliation process is subject to the "Byrd bath" in Senate [[^]](https://cossa.org/house-republicans-delay-markups-reconciliation-subject-to-byrd-bath/) | Senate Leadership View | Prefers an "anorexic-like" reconciliation package [[^]](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/senate-gop-leadership-wants-an-anorexic-like-reconciliation-package-not-everyone-agrees) | **House Republican leadership has explicitly postponed reconciliation markups, primarily due to concerns regarding the Senate's "Byrd bath" process [[^]](https://cossa.org/house-republicans-delay-markups-reconciliation-subject-to-byrd-bath/)** House Republican leadership has explicitly postponed reconciliation markups, primarily due to concerns regarding the Senate's "Byrd bath" process [[^]](https://cossa.org/house-republicans-delay-markups-reconciliation-subject-to-byrd-bath/). This procedural review by the Senate Parliamentarian aims to identify and remove any non-germane provisions from the bill. House leaders are reportedly deferring markups to increase the likelihood that provisions in their draft bill will withstand this scrutiny, thereby preventing a floor vote on measures that would subsequently be stripped out in the Senate [[^]](https://cossa.org/house-republicans-delay-markups-reconciliation-subject-to-byrd-bath/). Byrd Rule constraints and Senate preferences shape House reconciliation. The necessity of crafting legislation compliant with the Byrd Rule significantly influences the scope and substance of the House's reconciliation efforts. Senate Republican leadership has expressed a preference for an "anorexic-like" reconciliation package, which heightens the pressure to include only strictly budget-related provisions [[^]](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/senate-gop-leadership-wants-an-anorexic-like-reconciliation-package-not-everyone-agrees). This shared understanding across both chambers, combined with the objective of aligning the House bill with what can realistically pass a Byrd Rule challenge in the Senate, contributes to the current deliberative process and ongoing delays [[^]](https://cossa.org/house-republicans-delay-markups-reconciliation-subject-to-byrd-bath/). ## When Could the House Vote on a Reconciliation Bill? Earliest Budget Markup | February 7, 2025 [[^]](https://kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2025/02/tnf-house-budget-committee-2025-budget-resolution-schedules-markup.html) | Budget Resolution Deadline | April 15 [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R47235.html) | 2025 Summer Recess | July 28 - September 5, 2025 [[^]](https://www.majorityleader.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_house_calendar.pdf) | **The House Budget Committee could begin budget resolution markup by February 7, 2025** The House Budget Committee could begin budget resolution markup by February 7, 2025. This date marks the earliest feasible opportunity for the committee to initiate the Fiscal Year 2025 budget resolution process, as the House is scheduled to be in session [[^]](https://www.majorityleader.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_house_calendar.pdf). Although the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 targets April 15 as the completion date for congressional action on the budget resolution, this deadline is frequently missed [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R47235.html). Such delays often lead to significant postponements in the overall budget process and any subsequent reconciliation efforts [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R47235.html). Scheduled recesses in 2025 will significantly delay a final House vote. Multiple legislative deadlines and planned recesses throughout the year are anticipated to push a final House vote on a reconciliation bill into 2026. Key legislative hard stops include a summer recess from July 28 to September 5, 2025, and the year-end Christmas recess beginning December 22, 2025 [[^]](https://www.majorityleader.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_house_calendar.pdf). Considering the time required for committees to draft legislation following reconciliation instructions, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to score proposals, and floor debates in both chambers, these recesses and the typical legislative pace make it unlikely for a reconciliation bill to pass the House before the end of 2025 [[^]](https://www.majorityleader.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_house_calendar.pdf). Consequently, a final House vote on such legislation is projected to occur in mid-2026 or later. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 03, 2026 - **Closes:** January 01, 2027 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [Which of these African leaders will leave office next?](/markets/politics/international/which-of-these-african-leaders-will-leave-office-next/) - [Will Trump balance the budget?](/markets/politics/trump/will-trump-balance-the-budget/) - [When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General?](/markets/politics/when-will-pam-bondi-depart-as-attorney-general/) - [Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?](/markets/politics/trump/who-will-leave-trump-s-cabinet-next/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.