# Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: Trump

HTML: /markets/politics/trump/will-president-trump-be-impeached-during-his-term/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect President Trump to be impeached before Jan 20, 2029, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Donald Trump's New York felony conviction provides direct impeachment grounds.** - Current House leadership appears unwilling to prioritize impeachment before 2029.
- Prediction markets indicate higher **probability** for House impeachment than Senate conviction.
- Republican control of Congress could prevent a House impeachment vote.
- Potential second-term impeachment grounds include existing and new allegations.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Model's 76.4% probability vs.** 68c **market** price (1.5x payout) suggests higher impeachment potential due to felony conviction despite political unwillingness.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 68.0% | 76.4% | Impeachment proceedings against President Trump are anticipated before Jan 20, 2029. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 76.4% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 68.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029
- Edge: +8.4pp
- Expected Return: +12.3%
- R-Score: 0.84
- Total Volume: $316,011.59
- 24h Volume: $277.32
- Open Interest: $79,522.01

- Expiration: January 20, 2029

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, this prediction market has exhibited a stable, sideways trading pattern. The price has remained confined within a relatively narrow 7-point range, from a low of 66.0% to a high of 73.0%. After opening at 72.0%, the implied probability has seen a slight drift downwards to its current level of 68.0%. This price action suggests the market has established clear support around the 66.0% level and resistance near 73.0%. The lack of any significant price spikes or drops indicates that recent developments have not been sufficient to fundamentally alter traders' assessment of the situation. Overall market sentiment appears consistently high and stable, reflecting a strong consensus that a House impeachment vote is a likely event before the resolution date.

The total volume of 16,409 contracts traded suggests a reasonably active and liquid market. However, the sample data points show zero volume, which may indicate that trading activity is intermittent or that these specific data points represent opening or closing prices without trades on those exact days. The steady price, despite market reports in April 2026 and on May 8 showing odds as high as 76% on other platforms, suggests traders in this specific market are holding a slightly more conservative but firm conviction. The sideways trend implies the market has already priced in the existing political climate and is awaiting a new catalyst to break out of its current range.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if President Trump is impeached while in office before January 20, 2029; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified using information from the Library of Congress. Trading is prohibited for individuals employed by Source Agencies or those holding material, non-public information.

## Market Discussion

The market discussion for "Will President Trump be impeached during his term?" reveals a divided sentiment, though the current market price suggests a higher probability of "Yes" at 69¢. Arguments against impeachment often cite President Trump's perceived accomplishments during his term. Conversely, those betting "Yes" point to alleged "blatant corruption" and emphasize the strategic importance of which party controls the House, noting that a simple majority is sufficient to pass articles of impeachment.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 68% | 69% | 68% | $316,011.59 | $79,522.01 |

## What specific legal challenges or criminal indictments facing Donald Trump are most likely to trigger impeachment proceedings in the House before 2029?

NY Hush-Money Conviction Date | May 30, 2024 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_New_York)[[^]](https://lawfold.com/trump-lawsuit-tracker/) |
H.Res.353 Introduction Date | April 28, 2025 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353) |
Status of Federal Cases (classified docs, 2020 election) | Not active prosecutions during current presidency [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(classified_documents_case))[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)) |

**Donald Trump's New York felony conviction provides a direct impeachment basis**

Donald Trump's New York felony conviction provides a direct impeachment basis. On May 30, 2024, he was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records in the hush-money case. This conviction, currently under appeal and scheduled for unconditional discharge in January 2025, stands as a concrete, documentable criminal predicate. This specific legal challenge could potentially be used to support articles of impeachment before January 20, 2029 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_New_York)[[^]](https://lawfold.com/trump-lawsuit-tracker/).

Federal cases face unique challenges for triggering impeachment. Other high-profile federal criminal cases, specifically the classified-documents indictment and the 2020-election obstruction indictment, were not active prosecutions during the current presidency [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(classified_documents_case))[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)). These cases were dismissed or wound down due to the Department of Justice policy against prosecuting a sitting president, which diminished their direct potential to trigger impeachment through a new indictment while in office [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(classified_documents_case))[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)). Nevertheless, political efforts, such as H.Res.353 introduced on April 28, 2025, proposed impeachment articles for categories including obstruction of justice, bribery/corruption, and tyranny. This demonstrates that legal theories tied to alleged misconduct can be packaged as impeachment articles even when separate from a particular indictment [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353).

## What evidence from public statements by current House leadership suggests a political willingness to pursue impeachment against Donald Trump before 2029?

House Leadership Impeachment Priority | Not a top priority before 2029 [[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5849707-democrats-decline-trump-impeachment/) |
House Minority Leader's Stance | Impeachment would not be a "top priority" [[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5849707-democrats-decline-trump-impeachment/) |
Individual House Resolutions | H.Res.1155 and H.Res.939 propose impeachment in 119th Congress [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/1155/text)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/939/text) |

**Public statements from current House leadership suggest a lack of political willingness to prioritize impeachment against Donald Trump before 2029**

Public statements from current House leadership suggest a lack of political willingness to prioritize impeachment against Donald Trump before 2029. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has explicitly stated that impeachment would not be a "top priority" if Democrats were to secure a House majority. Instead, their primary focus would be on addressing issues such as lowering the cost of living [[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5849707-democrats-decline-trump-impeachment/). This position publicly downranks impeachment as an agenda-driving effort for leadership [[^]](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5849707-democrats-decline-trump-impeachment/).

Individual impeachment resolutions do not reflect leadership's official priorities. Despite the introduction of individual House resolutions, such as H.Res.1155 and H.Res.939 in the 119th Congress, which propose the impeachment of Donald J. Trump, these do not align with the stated priorities of current House leadership [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/1155/text)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/939/text). The evidence indicates that leadership's agenda may differ from such individual advocacy efforts [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/1155/text)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/939/text). Furthermore, any statement made by Donald Trump himself regarding potential impeachment is not confirmation of House leadership's intent to pursue impeachment before 2029 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-house-republicans-if-we-dont-win-midterms-i-will-get-impeached-2026-01-06/).

## How do prediction market odds for Trump's impeachment (House vote) differ from odds for his conviction and removal (Senate vote)?

House Impeachment Probability | 65% to 74% (before Jan 2028 or Jan 2029) [[^]](https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/50479/trump-finished-impeachment-bets-surge-democrats-seen-winning-back-house)[[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say)[[^]](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/315380492761265)[[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/trump-impeachment-odds-rise-to-70-on-polymarket-amid-falling-approval-and-iran-war-concerns/)[[^]](https://mlq.ai/prediction/market/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends/)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeach/president-impeached/kximpeach)[[^]](https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/trumps-chances-being-impeached-skyrocket-1806449)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/988514) |
Senate Removal Probability | 21.1% to 27% [[^]](https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/50479/trump-finished-impeachment-bets-surge-democrats-seen-winning-back-house)[[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say)[[^]](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/315380492761265)[[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/trump-impeachment-odds-rise-to-70-on-polymarket-amid-falling-approval-and-iran-war-concerns/)[[^]](https://mlq.ai/prediction/market/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends/)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeach/president-impeached/kximpeach)[[^]](https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/trumps-chances-being-impeached-skyrocket-1806449)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/988514) |
Democratic House Takeover Probability | 71% to 84% (2026 midterm elections) [[^]](https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/50479/trump-finished-impeachment-bets-surge-democrats-seen-winning-back-house)[[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say)[[^]](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/315380492761265)[[^]](https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/trumps-chances-being-impeached-skyrocket-1806449) |

**Prediction markets indicate a significantly higher probability for House impeachment**

Prediction markets indicate a significantly higher **probability** for House impeachment. Implied probabilities for President Trump's impeachment by the House of Representatives range from **65%** to **74%** before January 2028 or January 2029 [[^]](https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/50479/trump-finished-impeachment-bets-surge-democrats-seen-winning-back-house)[[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say)[[^]](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/315380492761265)[[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/trump-impeachment-odds-rise-to-70-on-polymarket-amid-falling-approval-and-iran-war-concerns/)[[^]](https://mlq.ai/prediction/**market**/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends/)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeach/president-impeached/kximpeach)[[^]](https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/trumps-chances-being-impeached-skyrocket-1806449)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/988514). This elevated likelihood is partly attributed to expectations of a Democratic takeover of the House in the 2026 midterm elections, which prediction markets estimate between approximately **71%** and **84%** [[^]](https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/50479/trump-finished-impeachment-bets-surge-democrats-seen-winning-back-house)[[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say)[[^]](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/315380492761265)[[^]](https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/trumps-chances-being-impeached-skyrocket-1806449). These impeachment contracts typically resolve affirmatively if the House passes articles of impeachment, irrespective of any Senate outcome [[^]](https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/50479/trump-finished-impeachment-bets-surge-democrats-seen-winning-back-house)[[^]](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/315380492761265).

Senate conviction and removal odds are significantly lower due to higher constitutional thresholds. In stark contrast, the implied probabilities for President Trump's actual removal from office, requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, are considerably lower, standing between **21.1%** and **27%** [[^]](https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/50479/trump-finished-impeachment-bets-surge-democrats-seen-winning-back-house)[[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say)[[^]](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/315380492761265)[[^]](https://news.bitcoin.com/trump-impeachment-odds-rise-to-70-on-polymarket-amid-falling-approval-and-iran-war-concerns/)[[^]](https://mlq.ai/prediction/**market**/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends/)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeach/president-impeached/kximpeach)[[^]](https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/trumps-chances-being-impeached-skyrocket-1806449)[[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/988514). This substantial divergence in odds reflects the distinct constitutional thresholds: a simple majority is sufficient for impeachment in the House, whereas a supermajority is mandated for conviction and removal in the Senate, making the latter outcome far more challenging to achieve [[^]](https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/50479/trump-finished-impeachment-bets-surge-democrats-seen-winning-back-house)[[^]](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51328565/trump-impeachment-before-2028-now-72-likely-prediction-markets-say)[[^]](https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/315380492761265)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeach/president-impeached/kximpeach).

## What shifts in Congressional control or public opinion following the 2026 midterm elections could prevent a House impeachment vote against Trump before 2029?

House Control (current) | Republican-controlled (218 needed for majority) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2026)[[^]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/) |
Polymarket Impeachment Probability | 76% YES (as of March 19, 2026) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends) |
Public Impeachment Support | 55% (April 10-14, 2026) [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-22-strength-in-numbers-verasight-impeachment-polling) |

**Preventing a House impeachment requires Republican control and public opinion shifts**

Preventing a House impeachment requires Republican control and public opinion shifts. Preventing a House impeachment vote against Trump before January 20, 2029, hinges on Republicans either maintaining or regaining control of the House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2026). Additionally, a critical shift in public sentiment would be necessary, moving from current majority support to majority opposition for impeachment, or at least a significant decline in its intensity [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-22-strength-in-numbers-verasight-impeachment-polling)[[^]](https://freespeechforpeople.org/new-national-poll-majority-of-voters-support-impeaching-donald-trump-just-14-months-into-his-term/).

Republican House control is projected, yet **market** odds favor impeachment. Pre-election analyses for 2026 indicate that Republicans are likely to retain, or narrowly retain, their majority in the House, which currently requires 218 seats [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Congress_elections,_2026)[[^]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/). Despite these projections for Republican control, Polymarket's crowd **probability** for impeachment stood at **76%** for "YES" as of March 19, 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends). This suggests that traders anticipate a relatively low likelihood of a Republican-controlled House successfully preventing impeachment throughout the remainder of the term [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends).

Majority public opinion currently supports impeachment, necessitating a reversal. Public opinion in mid-2026 consistently demonstrates majority support for impeaching Trump. For instance, an April 10-14, 2026, Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll reported **55%** support and **37%** opposition [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-22-strength-in-numbers-verasight-impeachment-polling). Similarly, a Free Speech For People/Lake Research Partners poll found **52%** support and **40%** opposition [[^]](https://freespeechforpeople.org/new-national-poll-majority-of-voters-support-impeaching-donald-trump-just-14-months-into-his-term/). For impeachment to be prevented by shifts in public opinion, these figures would need to reverse to a majority opposing impeachment, or show a substantial reduction in the current level of support [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-22-strength-in-numbers-verasight-impeachment-polling)[[^]](https://freespeechforpeople.org/new-national-poll-majority-of-voters-support-impeaching-donald-trump-just-14-months-into-his-term/).

## How do the potential grounds for a second-term impeachment of Donald Trump compare to the articles of impeachment from his first term (2019 and 2021)?

First Impeachment Articles | 2 (abuse of power, obstruction of Congress) [[^]](https://congress.gov/116/bills/hres755/BILLS-116hres755rh.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/posts/514/2019-12-18_president-donald-trump-impeached-for-abuse-of-power-and-obstruction-related-to-seeking-political-favors-from-ukraine) |
Second Impeachment Articles | 1 (incitement of insurrection) [[^]](https://congress.gov/117/bills/hres32/BILLS-117hres32ih.pdf)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump) |
Implied probability of impeachment | 72% (before Jan 20, 2029) [[^]](https://www.solflare.com/prediction/politics/event/KXIMPEACH-29/) |

**Potential second-term impeachment grounds show both overlap and new allegations**

Potential second-term impeachment grounds show both overlap and new allegations. Proposed impeachment articles for a potential second term for Donald Trump, exemplified by H.Res. 353 and H.Res. 939 from the 119th Congress, include allegations such as obstruction of justice, abuse of trade powers, bribery, and direct threats against members of Congress and federal judges [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353/text)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.htm)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hres939/text)[[^]](https://www.billtrack50.com/billdetail/1916784)[[^]](https://legislate.dev/bills/119/hres-939). These potential grounds share thematic commonalities with his first-term articles, which encompassed abuse of power, obstruction of Congress, and incitement of insurrection [[^]](https://congress.gov/116/bills/hres755/BILLS-116hres755rh.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/posts/514/2019-12-18_president-donald-trump-impeached-for-abuse-of-power-and-obstruction-related-to-seeking-political-favors-from-ukraine)[[^]](https://congress.gov/117/bills/hres32/BILLS-117hres32ih.pdf)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump). However, the new proposals also introduce specific allegations not seen in previous impeachments.

First impeachments focused on specific actions, new proposals introduce distinct charges. Donald Trump's first impeachment in 2019 involved charges of 'abuse of power' related to soliciting Ukraine's interference and 'obstruction of Congress' for defying subpoenas [[^]](https://congress.gov/116/bills/hres755/BILLS-116hres755rh.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/posts/514/2019-12-18_president-donald-trump-impeached-for-abuse-of-power-and-obstruction-related-to-seeking-political-favors-from-ukraine). His second impeachment in 2021 charged him with 'incitement of insurrection' concerning his actions around the January 6 Capitol attack [[^]](https://congress.gov/117/bills/hres32/BILLS-117hres32ih.pdf)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump). In contrast, potential second-term grounds, like those outlined in H.Res. 353, set forth seven articles including usurpation of appropriations power, First Amendment-rights violations, and 'tyranny' [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353/text)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.htm)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.pdf). H.Res. 939 specifically alleges calling for the execution of members of Congress and threatening federal judges [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hres939/text)[[^]](https://www.billtrack50.com/billdetail/1916784)[[^]](https://legislate.dev/bills/119/hres-939). While 'obstruction of Congress' has parallels to 'obstruction of justice,' and 'abuse of power' relates to 'abuse of trade powers' and 'bribery & corruption,' the 119th Congress examples introduce distinct allegations such as direct threats against officials and accusations of 'tyranny' [[^]](https://congress.gov/116/bills/hres755/BILLS-116hres755rh.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/posts/514/2019-12-18_president-donald-trump-impeached-for-abuse-of-power-and-obstruction-related-to-seeking-political-favors-from-ukraine)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/353/text)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.htm)[[^]](https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hres939/text)[[^]](https://www.billtrack50.com/billdetail/1916784)[[^]](https://legislate.dev/bills/119/hres-939). Furthermore, a prediction **market** for impeachment during a potential second term indicated an implied **probability** of approximately **72%** at the time of capture, with resolution expected before January 20, 2029 [[^]](https://www.solflare.com/prediction/politics/event/KXIMPEACH-29/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 20, 2029
- **Closes:** January 20, 2029

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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