# Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump? Before Apr 8, 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Politics Tags: Trump Congress HTML: /markets/politics/trump/will-any-gop-member-of-congress-call-for-the-25th-amendment-on-trump/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** favor Before May 1, 2026 at approximately **2%** **probability**. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - No GOP member of Congress publicly called for the 25th Amendment.** - Political bar for 25th Amendment invocation remains extremely high. - Republican staffers privately question Trump's mental and physical fitness. - No clear "bright line" exists for non-medical 25th Amendment use. - High-stakes events will scrutinize president during 2025-2026 period. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Market** at **4.0%** prices higher than the **2.4%** **model** estimate, reflecting the extremely high political bar for 25th Amendment. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Before May 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 2.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 2.4% (Yes) - Market Probability: 4.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Before May 1, 2026 - Edge: -1.6pp - Expected Return: -40.4% - R-Score: -0.20 - Total Volume: $16,164.99 - 24h Volume: $461.63 - Open Interest: $9,778.22 - Expiration: May 1, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market shows a consistent and strong downward trend, with the implied probability of a GOP member of Congress calling for the 25th Amendment on Trump falling from a high of 20.0% to its current price of 4.0%. The overall price action indicates a steady decline in market confidence that this event will occur. Two significant downward movements were detected on April 17 and April 22, each registering an 8.0 percentage point drop from 14.0% to 6.0%. The provided context does not include specific news or events that would explain the catalyst for these sharp declines. The trading volume provides further insight into market conviction. While early volume was light, the sample data shows a significant increase in volume accompanying the most recent price drop to 4.0%, suggesting strengthening belief in the "NO" outcome. The price chart indicates a previous level of support around the 14.0% mark, which has now become a potential resistance level. The current price of 4.0% establishes a new support level. Overall, the combination of the sustained downward trend, sharp price drops, and increasing volume indicates a strong and growing market consensus that this event is highly unlikely to happen before the April 2026 resolution date. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 April 22, 2026: 8.0pp drop Price decreased from 14.0% to 6.0% **Outcome:** Before May 1, 2026 **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 17, 2026: 8.0pp drop Price decreased from 14.0% to 6.0% **Outcome:** Before May 1, 2026 **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to "Yes" if any Republican member of Congress publicly calls for Donald Trump's removal as President through the 25th Amendment. This call must occur before May 1, 2026, and be reported by sources such as The Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News, The New York Times, or ABC News. If no such call is made by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT, the market resolves to "No," though it will close and settle early if the "Yes" condition is met before that date. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 4% | 4% | $9,203.15 | $5,206.11 | ## Which Republicans Show Less Fealty to Trump Since 2021? Senator Collins' Stance | Expressed "serious objections" to Trump's 2026 budget and voted "no" on "Trump’s mega bill" [[^]](https://digital-release.thehill.com/homenews/senate/5279900-susan-collins-trump-budget/). Pledged to retire after sixth term if reelected [[^]](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/04/01/politics/elections/maine-senate-election-susan-collins-sixth-term-pledge-retirement/). | Representative Fitzpatrick's Record | Frequently breaks with Donald Trump [[^]](https://digital-dev.thehill.com/homenews/house/5553761-trump-score-fitzpatrick-wicker/). Voted against a Trump-endorsed bill and criticized Trump for a "lack of moral clarity" regarding Putin [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/brian-fitzpatrick-big-beautiful-bill-vote-reelection-20250803.html). | Senator Tillis' Questions | Publicly raised questions about the Trump administration [[^]](https://mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2026/01/21/thom-tillis-republican-senate-trump). | **Senator Susan Collins consistently demonstrated independence from Donald Trump since 2021** Senator Susan Collins consistently demonstrated independence from Donald Trump since 2021. She voiced "serious objections" to specific aspects of Trump's proposed 2026 budget [[^]](https://digital-release.thehill.com/homenews/senate/5279900-susan-collins-trump-budget/). Furthermore, Senator Collins cast a "no" vote on what was described as "Trump’s mega bill" and provided a detailed explanation for her opposition [[^]](https://www.pressherald.com/2025/07/02/sen-collins-explains-her-no-vote-on-trumps-mega-bill/). She has also stated her intention to retire after her sixth term if reelected, aligning her with the category of potential 2026 retirees [[^]](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/04/01/politics/elections/maine-senate-election-susan-collins-sixth-term-pledge-retirement/). Representative Brian Fitzpatrick frequently diverges from Donald Trump, notably in votes and criticism. He is recognized as one of the Republican members who most often break with Donald Trump, based on an analysis of voting records [[^]](https://digital-dev.thehill.com/homenews/house/5553761-trump-score-fitzpatrick-wicker/). His record includes a notable vote against a significant Trump-endorsed bill [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/brian-fitzpatrick-big-beautiful-bill-vote-reelection-20250803.html). Fitzpatrick has also directly criticized Trump, specifically highlighting a "lack of moral clarity" in his dealings with Russian President Vladimir Putin [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/nation/brian-fitzpatrick-interview-trump-fbi-20260116.html). Additionally, Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) has been identified among the few Republican senators who have publicly raised questions regarding the Trump administration [[^]](https://mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2026/01/21/thom-tillis-republican-senate-trump). ## What Defines a 'Bright Line' for 25th Amendment Non-Medical Incapacity? Specific bright line | Not identified for non-medical incapacity (legal analysis) [[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/25th-amendment-how-do-we-decide-whether-the-president-is-competent/) | 25th Amendment Section 4 term | 'Unable to discharge' deliberately left undefined by framers [[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/25th-amendment-how-do-we-decide-whether-the-president-is-competent/) | Invocation threshold | High threshold of bipartisan consensus among VP and Cabinet [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/could-the-25th-amendment-be-invoked-against-trump-heres-how-it-works) | **Legal analyses and constitutional scholars have found no clear 'bright line' for non-medical 25th Amendment invocation** Legal analyses and constitutional scholars have found no clear 'bright line' for non-medical 25th Amendment invocation. There is generally no specific category of presidential action cited as the most plausible 'bright line' for triggering the 25th Amendment's Section 4 on grounds of non-medical incapacity [[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/25th-amendment-how-do-we-decide-whether-the-president-is-competent/). The framers deliberately left "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" undefined, distinguishing it from cases of clear medical incapacity [[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/25th-amendment-how-do-we-decide-whether-the-president-is-competent/). Scholars emphasize the amendment is designed for genuine inability, not for policy disagreements, unpopularity, or general political unfitness [[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/25th-amendment-how-do-we-decide-whether-the-president-is-competent/). Invoking the 25th Amendment for non-medical reasons presents significant political hurdles. Sources highlight the extreme difficulty, high political bar, and intentional vagueness surrounding non-medical incapacity, making a clear bright line elusive [[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/25th-amendment-how-do-we-decide-whether-the-president-is-competent/). Successful invocation requires a high threshold of bipartisan consensus among the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet, inherently making it a political process rather than a clear legal one based on specific actions [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/could-the-25th-amendment-be-invoked-against-trump-heres-how-it-works). Despite advocacy group claims, scholars view Section 4 as unworkable for non-medical reasons. While some advocacy groups have cited specific presidential behaviors as grounds for calls to invoke the amendment, these are typically presented as a pattern, not a universally agreed-upon 'bright line' category of action by constitutional scholars [[^]](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/25th-amendment-how-do-we-decide-whether-the-president-is-competent/). The prevailing view among legal experts is that the 25th Amendment for non-medical reasons remains an 'unlikely and inapt solution' or even 'unworkable' due to the ambiguity of its key terms and the formidable political obstacles required for its activation [[^]](https://www.cato.org/blog/25th-amendment-unlikely-inapt-solution). ## Do Anti-Trump GOP Groups Directly Fund Moderate Members? RAPAC Direct Candidate Contributions (2021-2024) | $0 [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/republican-accountability-pac/C00804856/summary/2022) | Kinzinger PAC Direct Candidate Contributions (2021-2022) | $25,000 [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs//C00522425/summary/2022) | Kinzinger PAC Direct Candidate Contributions (2023-2024) | $0 [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs//C00522425/summary/2022) | **Established anti-Trump GOP organizations lack a direct funding structure for moderate members** Established anti-Trump GOP organizations lack a direct funding structure for moderate members. While groups like the Republican Accountability PAC and those founded by Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger actively oppose former President Trump's influence, direct evidence from FEC filings and PAC summaries does not clearly indicate a robust, direct political support and funding mechanism specifically for current moderate GOP members who might break ranks. These organizations primarily focus on broader anti-Trump efforts, rather than directly funding current congressional members' campaigns to encourage them to take an anti-Trump stance. Specific PACs show limited direct contributions to federal candidates. The Republican Accountability PAC (RAPAC), operating as a Super PAC, made **$0** in direct contributions to federal candidates in both the 2021-2022 and 2023-2024 election cycles, largely focusing on independent expenditures against opposed candidates [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/republican-accountability-pac/C00804856/summary/2022). Liz Cheney's 'Our Great Task' PAC aims to campaign against 2020 election deniers, but sources do not detail specific direct financial contributions to current moderate GOP members [[^]](https://influencewatch.org/political-party/our-great-task). Similarly, Adam Kinzinger's 'Future First Leadership PAC' provided **$25,000** in direct candidate contributions in the 2021-2022 cycle, but **$0** in the 2023-2024 cycle, reflecting a diminished role after his departure from Congress [[^]](https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs//C00522425/summary/2022). Therefore, their current activities do not explicitly demonstrate a direct funding and political support structure designed to aid individual current moderate GOP members in breaking ranks with the former president. ## Do Republicans Publicly Support 25th Amendment for Trump? Private Staffer Concerns | Doubts regarding former President Trump's mental and physical acuity [[^]](https://punchbowl.news/article/polling/republican-hill-staffers-trump-health/) | Public GOP Leadership Stance | No public indication of support for 25th Amendment use [[^]](https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-79-faces-congressional-bid-to-invoke-25th-amendment/) | Primary Calls for 25th Amendment | From Democrats and former Trump allies [[^]](https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-79-faces-congressional-bid-to-invoke-25th-amendment/) | **Republican staffers privately question former President Trump's mental and physical fitness** Republican staffers privately question former President Trump's mental and physical fitness. Off-the-record briefings indicate that Republican Hill staffers harbor private doubts about former President Trump's mental and physical acuity, suggesting an underlying concern regarding his fitness for office [[^]](https://punchbowl.news/article/polling/republican-hill-staffers-trump-health/). These internal sentiments among "GOP insiders" also include suggestions that Trump could be removed via a secret ballot, with one former RNC Chair commenting that Trump "has no respect for the Constitution" [[^]](https://local.newsbreak.com/better-america-333211895/4604008356634-he-d-be-gone-today-gop-insiders-claim-secret-ballot-would-oust-trump-immediately-he-has-no-respect-for-the-constitution-says-former-rnc-chair). This distinction between private Republican opinions and public actions is significant. Senior GOP leadership staff do not publicly support the 25th Amendment. Despite these private concerns, there is no evidence that senior GOP leadership staff publicly consider the 25th Amendment a viable political strategy concerning former President Trump. The research indicates that public calls for invoking the 25th Amendment in relation to Trump have predominantly come from Democrats and former Trump allies [[^]](https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-79-faces-congressional-bid-to-invoke-25th-amendment/). Currently, no Republican member of Congress has publicly advocated for the 25th Amendment regarding Trump. ## What are the high-stakes policy events for a president in 2025-2026? Federal Debt Ceiling | Expected to become a significant concern in 2025, extending into early 2026 [[^]](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/03242025-BPC-X-Date-Projection.pdf) | State of the Union Address | Early 2026 (late January or early February) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_State_of_the_Union_Address) | NATO Summit Location/Year | Ankara, Türkiye in 2026 [[^]](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/2026-nato-summit-in-ankara-to-shape-future-of-global-security-architecture-turkiye-s-communications-director/3914956) | **Between January 2025 and April 2026, several high-stakes events will scrutinize the president** Between January 2025 and April 2026, several high-stakes events will scrutinize the president. A critical domestic policy event is the federal debt ceiling, which projections indicate will likely become a significant concern in 2025 [[^]](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/03242025-BPC-X-Date-Projection.pdf). This statutory limit will potentially require congressional action to avert default, leading to intense negotiations and subjecting the president's leadership to immense public and Congressional scrutiny [[^]](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/03242025-BPC-X-Date-Projection.pdf). The annual State of the Union Address offers direct public assessment. This major domestic event is scheduled for early 2026, typically delivered in late January or early February [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_State_of_the_Union_Address). The nationally televised address is a key communicative and policy-setting occasion, directly subjecting the president's physical and cognitive capabilities to assessment by both the public and Congress [[^]](https://usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/07/state-of-the-union-address-2026-date/88071420007/). An international NATO Summit in 2026 demands robust presidential decision-making. This diplomatic gathering is scheduled to be held in Ankara, Türkiye, in 2026 [[^]](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/2026-nato-summit-in-ankara-to-shape-future-of-global-security-architecture-turkiye-s-communications-director/3914956). NATO summits are crucial for heads of state and government to address security challenges, define alliance policy, and coordinate responses to global events [[^]](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50115.htm?selectedLocale=en). The 2026 summit is expected to be pivotal for global security architecture [[^]](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/2026-nato-summit-in-ankara-to-shape-future-of-global-security-architecture-turkiye-s-communications-director/3914956), necessitating intense preparation, strategic negotiation, and robust decision-making from the president. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 17, 2026 - **Closes:** May 01, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU has a new member before 2030?](/markets/politics/international/eu-has-a-new-member-before-2030/) - [Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?](/markets/politics/scotus-courts/will-trump-s-birthright-citizenship-order-come-into-effect/) - [Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?](/markets/politics/international/which-countries-will-normalize-relations-with-israel-before-2027/) - [Which of these African leaders will leave office next?](/markets/politics/international/which-of-these-african-leaders-will-leave-office-next/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 3 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXMOCTRUMP25-26-APR24: NO (Apr 24, 2026) - KXMOCTRUMP25-26-APR17: NO (Apr 17, 2026) - KXMOCTRUMP25-26-APR10: NO (Apr 10, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.