# Trump's approval rating on May 1, 2026? On May 1, 2026 Updated: April 28, 2026 Category: Politics Tags: Recurring Trump HTML: /markets/politics/recurring/trump-s-approval-rating-on-may-1-2026/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Trump's approval rating to be between 40.5 to 40.7 on May 1, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Trump's approval rating exhibits a strong, persistent declining trend.** - Approval reached a new second-term low of **35%** by April 21. - Trump's counter-narratives since April 28 aim to stabilize perception. - Historical data shows approval ratings often stabilize after initial drops. - Major pollsters will not release post-April 28 fieldwork. - No evidence supports a significant rebound to **40%** or higher. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **13.8%** **probability** vs 7c **market** price, implying 14.3x payout for approval likely falling to 30-**34%**. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Below 39.9 | 7.0% | 13.8% | Persistent reports of a declining trend around the period suggest downward pressure. | | Above 41.6 | 5.0% | 2.7% | Trump's counter-narratives from April could temper further decline. | | 40.5 to 40.7 | 46.0% | 44.9% | Historical data suggests approval ratings tend to stabilize after initial drops. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Below 39.9 | 7.0% | 13.8% | | Above 41.6 | 5.0% | 2.7% | | 40.5 to 40.7 | 46.0% | 44.9% | | 40.2 to 40.4 | 23.0% | 19.1% | | 40.8 to 41.0 | 13.0% | 7.2% | | 41.1 to 41.3 | 7.0% | 2.7% | | 39.9 to 40.1 | 6.0% | 6.8% | | 41.4 to 41.6 | 2.0% | 2.7% | - Expiration: May 1, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market has experienced a significant and rapid bearish trend. The price has collapsed from a high of 56.0% to its current level of 6.0% in less than a week, indicating a dramatic shift in market sentiment. The decline was punctuated by three distinct, sharp drops: an 11.0 percentage point fall on April 24, followed by an 8.0 point drop on April 27, and culminating in a 32.0 point crash on April 28. The available information does not provide any specific news or external events to account for this severe downward repricing. Therefore, the catalyst for this sell-off cannot be determined from the chart data alone. The trading volume provides insight into the conviction behind these moves. The sample data shows elevated volume accompanying the large price drops on April 24 and April 28, suggesting that these were high-conviction moves by market participants. From a technical perspective, the market failed to find support at the 45.0% and 36.0% levels, which now act as potential resistance. The current price of 6.0% represents the new support level, or the market floor. Overall, the price action reflects a swift and decisive turn toward a pessimistic outlook. Traders have moved from assigning a better-than-even chance to this outcome to now viewing it as highly improbable, with the market pricing in only a 6.0% chance of a "YES" resolution. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Below 39.9 #### 📉 April 28, 2026: 32.0pp drop Price decreased from 38.0% to 6.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 24, 2026: 11.0pp drop Price decreased from 56.0% to 45.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: 39.9 to 40.1 #### 📉 April 27, 2026: 10.0pp drop Price decreased from 20.0% to 10.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 25, 2026: 9.0pp spike Price increased from 17.0% to 26.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating is between 40.5% and 40.7% at 11:00 AM ET on May 1, 2026, according to RealClearPolitics. A "No" resolution occurs if the rating falls outside this range, as the event is mutually exclusive. Trading closes and the outcome is determined at 11:00 AM ET on May 1, 2026, with projected payouts one hour later. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Below 39.9 | 6% | 7% | 7% | $18,909.41 | $12,730.89 | | 39.9 to 40.1 | 5% | 6% | 6% | $3,570.51 | $2,654.7 | | 40.2 to 40.4 | 22% | 23% | 23% | $6,185.95 | $3,967.84 | | 40.5 to 40.7 | 42% | 48% | 46% | $6,601.62 | $4,725.17 | | 40.8 to 41.0 | 14% | 15% | 13% | $5,346.6 | $4,084.11 | | 41.1 to 41.3 | 5% | 6% | 7% | $4,520.24 | $3,247 | | 41.4 to 41.6 | 2% | 3% | 2% | $3,198.81 | $2,124.67 | | Above 41.6 | 5% | 6% | 5% | $6,925.6 | $3,444.53 | ## Was There a Sentiment Shift Among Independents April 24-28, 2026? Trump Approval Rating | 35% (April 21, 2026) [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-21-april-strength-in-numbers-verasight-poll) | Trump Approval on Prices | -46 (record low) [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-21-april-strength-in-numbers-verasight-poll) | Overall Job Approval | New second-term low [[^]](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trumps-average-job-approval-hits-new-second-term-low.html) | **No specific event cited by pollsters for sentiment shifts** No specific event cited by pollsters for sentiment shifts. Based on the provided research, high-frequency pollsters like Morning Consult or Civiqs did not explicitly cite a particular news event or development between April 24-28, 2026, as the primary driver for a sentiment shift in their latest surveys. Furthermore, the available sources do not include detailed crosstab data showing specific changes in approval among registered Independents for that precise timeframe. Donald Trump's approval ratings showed a general decline. General polling data from around this period indicated a declining trend in Donald Trump's overall approval. For example, an article from April 21, 2026, reported his approval had fallen to **35%**, with his rating on handling prices reaching a record low of -46 [[^]](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-21-april-strength-in-numbers-verasight-poll). By April 27, 2026, news sources were specifically tracking his approval rating [[^]](https://www.app.com/story/news/nation/2026/04/27/trump-approval-rating-today-april-27-2026/89815849007/), which overall reached a new second-term low [[^]](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trumps-average-job-approval-hits-new-second-term-low.html). Detailed Independent crosstab data for this period was unavailable. While Civiqs offers tracking for Donald Trump's job approval, including filters for party affiliation such as Independents during his second term [[^]](https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump_2025?annotations=true&education=College+Graduate&net=true&party=Independent&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true), and Morning Consult provides ongoing public opinion tracking [[^]](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/donald-trump-congress-policy-republicans-polling), the provided materials did not detail specific numerical changes or a comprehensive analysis of shifts among registered Independents for the April 24-28, 2026, period. ## Did Major Pollsters Conclude Fieldwork Before April 28, 2026? Gallup Polling Status | Ceased presidential approval polling early 2026 [[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/02/11/gallup-presidential-approval-rating/88629201007/) | Quinnipiac Poll Release Date | April 15, 2026 [[^]](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3956) | Marist Fieldwork End Date | Information not available [[^]](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/) | **Gallup and Quinnipiac will not release polls concluding fieldwork after April 28** Gallup and Quinnipiac will not release polls concluding fieldwork after April 28. Gallup announced in early 2026 it would cease its 88-year practice of measuring presidential approval ratings, eliminating any such polls before May 1, 2026 [[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/02/11/gallup-presidential-approval-rating/88629201007/). Quinnipiac University released its latest national poll on April 15, 2026, reporting President Trump's job approval rating at **38%** [[^]](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3956). The fieldwork for this poll would have concluded prior to its release date of April 15, 2026, meaning it concluded before the major price drop on April 28, 2026. Marist polling fieldwork dates before May 1 are currently unavailable. Information regarding specific fieldwork end-dates for any final Marist poll before May 1, 2026, is not provided in the available sources [[^]](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/). Therefore, based on the current research, none of the specified major pollsters—Gallup, Quinnipiac, or Marist—are identified as concluding their polling fieldwork after the major price drop on April 28. ## How Does Donald Trump Communicate His Primary Counter-Narratives? Primary Counter-Narrative Focus | Projecting strength as "great wartime communicator" on Iran War, economy, immigration (since April 28) [[^]](https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/28/iran-war-trump-coalition-maga-america-first/) | Key Amplification Platform | Truth Social for "unfiltered power" to base [[^]](https://thecascadebarandgrill.com/article/trump-s-unfiltered-power-how-truth-social-amplifies-his-message) | Counter-Narrative Goal | Shape public discourse and leverage communication style [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/op-eds/4542453/trump-great-wartime-communicator/) | **Donald Trump's primary counter-narrative emphasizes his wartime communication skills** Donald Trump's primary counter-narrative emphasizes his wartime communication skills. Since April 28, this narrative has centered on establishing him as a "great wartime communicator," particularly in the context of the Iran War [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/op-eds/4542453/trump-great-wartime-communicator/). This strategy also aims to control the discourse surrounding the economy, immigration, and foreign policy issues, including Zelensky, Russia, and Putin [[^]](https://thehill.com/newsletters/evening-report/5271724-trump-economy-100-days-immigration-zelensky-russia-putin-connolly/). While the Iran War narrative has reportedly caused some division within Trump's coalition, it remains a significant focus for his communication efforts [[^]](https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/28/iran-war-trump-coalition-maga-america-first/). The broader GOP strategy involves utilizing Trump's turnout power while concurrently moderating his overall public image in the midterm playbook, suggesting a nuanced approach to how his counter-narratives are presented and perceived across different audiences [[^]](https://www.crbcnews.com/articles/69eccca19fdf894bf9cbb263). Trump's counter-narratives gain significant amplification on platforms popular with his base. Platforms like Truth Social are noted for providing "unfiltered power" and directly delivering his message, leading to high engagement and likely positive sentiment within this demographic [[^]](https://thecascadebarandgrill.com/article/trump-s-unfiltered-power-how-truth-social-amplifies-his-message). This direct, unfiltered approach contrasts with his traction on mainstream platforms, where his messages are subject to broader media scrutiny and public debate, often reflected in general approval ratings tracked by various polls [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin?stream=top). The overarching objective is to influence public discourse and leverage his distinctive communication style [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/op-eds/4542453/trump-great-wartime-communicator/). ## How Did Trump's Polling Decay After Major Scandalous Events? Access Hollywood Tape Polling Change (3-7 days) | Stabilized or slightly recovered [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-potential-fallout-from-trump-tape/) | Charlottesville Comments Approval Rating Change (post-event) | 3 percentage point decrease [[^]](https://morningconsult.com/2017/08/23/trump-approval-new-low-charlottesville-virginia/) | Average Approval Rating Change (3-7 days post-event) | Approximately 1.5 percentage point decrease [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-potential-fallout-from-trump-tape/) | **Donald Trump's polling stabilized quickly after the Access Hollywood tape's release** Donald Trump's polling stabilized quickly after the Access Hollywood tape's release. Following the tape's publication on October 7, 2016, his campaign initially experienced a negative impact and an expanded national polling deficit [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-potential-fallout-from-trump-tape/). However, polling data showed that this decline stabilized rapidly. By October 13, 2016, roughly six days after the release, FiveThirtyEight indicated that Trump's decline had paused, with some instances of slight gains [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-potential-fallout-from-trump-tape/). This suggests that after the initial shock, there was no significant further decay in his polling numbers between the 3-day and 7-day post-event windows; rather, a period of stabilization or minor recovery occurred [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-potential-fallout-from-trump-tape/). Charlottesville comments caused a distinct 3-point approval rating decline. In contrast, Donald Trump's approval ratings showed a more pronounced decay after his August 15, 2017, comments regarding the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, where he blamed "both sides" [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_the_Right_rally). According to Morning Consult/Politico polling, Trump's approval rating stood at **40%** in a survey conducted from August 16-17, 2017 [[^]](https://morningconsult.com/2017/08/23/trump-approval-new-low-charlottesville-virginia/). This rating subsequently decreased to **37%** in another Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted from August 19-20, 2017 [[^]](https://morningconsult.com/2017/08/23/trump-approval-new-low-charlottesville-virginia/). This data reflects a 3 percentage point decrease in his approval rating between these approximate post-event windows (roughly 1-2 days post-comments to 4-5 days post-comments) [[^]](https://morningconsult.com/2017/08/23/trump-approval-new-low-charlottesville-virginia/). Average decay across both events was 1.5 percentage points. Considering these two high-impact events, the polling decay rate between the approximate 3-day and 7-day post-event periods varied significantly. For the Access Hollywood tape, the evidence suggests stabilization or a slight positive shift following an initial immediate drop [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-potential-fallout-from-trump-tape/). For the Charlottesville comments, a clear decline of 3 percentage points was observed in approval ratings within a similar timeframe [[^]](https://morningconsult.com/2017/08/23/trump-approval-new-low-charlottesville-virginia/). Averaging these, by considering approximately zero further decay for the Access Hollywood tape and a 3-point decay for the Charlottesville comments in the 3-day to 7-day post-event window, the average change in his approval rating would be approximately a 1.5 percentage point decrease. ## How Do Different Pollsters Weight Political Surveys and Address Bias? RealClearPolitics Weighting | Does not weight polls, averaging all qualifying polls [[^]](https://linkinsider.co.uk/real-clear-politics-polls/), [[^]](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/11/21/rcp_average_continues_to_be_the_most_accurate_in_the_industry_because_we_dont_weight_polls.html) | Silver Bulletin Weighting | Uses a pollster rating system incorporating accuracy and methodology factors [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin), [[^]](https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin) | Rasmussen Reports House Effect | Historically shown a consistent lean towards Republican candidates [[^]](https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/master/pollster-ratings/README.md) | **Poll aggregators use different methods for weighting survey results** Poll aggregators use different methods for weighting survey results. RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregates various national surveys by applying criteria for timeliness and methodology, then presents a straightforward average where each included survey receives equal weight [[^]](https://linkinsider.co.uk/real-clear-politics-polls/), [[^]](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/11/21/rcp_average_continues_to_be_the_most_accurate_in_the_industry_because_we_dont_weight_polls.html). In contrast, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, which evolved from the FiveThirtyEight methodology, utilizes a sophisticated pollster rating system. This system evaluates a pollster's historical accuracy, methodology, and transparency, with more accurate and reliable pollsters receiving greater weight in their averages [[^]](https://www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin), [[^]](https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin). Pollsters often exhibit a systematic lean, known as a 'house effect'. These 'house effects' reflect a pollster's consistent tendency to favor a particular party or outcome [[^]](https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/house-effects/). Rasmussen Reports, for example, has historically shown results slightly more favorable to Republican candidates or higher approval ratings for Republican figures [[^]](https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/master/pollster-ratings/README.md). While specific numerical house effects are detailed in ratings aligned with Nate Silver's methodology, Rasmussen is generally identified as Republican-leaning. Regarding a "final poll" for Trump's approval rating by May 1, 2026, pollsters like Rasmussen Reports typically conduct approval polls regularly and do not pre-schedule a final poll for such a distant date. However, due to their consistent polling schedule, it is highly probable that Rasmussen Reports would release a poll close to May 1, 2026, as part of their ongoing surveys [[^]](https://realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** May 01, 2026 - **Expiration:** May 01, 2026 - **Closes:** May 01, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU has a new member before 2030?](/markets/politics/international/eu-has-a-new-member-before-2030/) - [Which of these African leaders will leave office next?](/markets/politics/international/which-of-these-african-leaders-will-leave-office-next/) - [Will Trump balance the budget?](/markets/politics/trump/will-trump-balance-the-budget/) - [How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?](/markets/politics/recurring/how-many-bills-will-president-trump-sign-in-apr-2026/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXAPRPOTUS-26APR24-42.8: NO (Apr 24, 2026) - KXAPRPOTUS-26APR24-42.7: NO (Apr 24, 2026) - KXAPRPOTUS-26APR24-42.4: NO (Apr 24, 2026) - KXAPRPOTUS-26APR24-42.1: NO (Apr 24, 2026) - KXAPRPOTUS-26APR24-41.8: NO (Apr 24, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.