# How many Truths will Trump delete in Apr 2026? Apr 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Politics Tags: Recurring HTML: /markets/politics/recurring/how-many-truths-will-trump-delete-in-apr-2026/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect at least 5 Truths to be deleted by Trump in April 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Trump historically deletes posts following negative legal and public pressures.** - Negative legal developments occurred for Trump during late April 2026. - Judge expressed skepticism April 24, indicating potential adverse ruling. - No direct correlation exists between DJT stock and post deletion rate. - Dan Scavino was present, advising Trump on post-deletion decisions. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Market** and **model** align at **98%** (1.0x payout), reflecting Trump's late April legal pressure deletions. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | At least 10 | 98.0% | 98.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 98.0% (Yes) - Market Probability: 98.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: At least 10 - Edge: +0.0pp - Expected Return: +0.0% - R-Score: 0.00 - Total Volume: $27,903.91 - 24h Volume: $780.24 - Open Interest: $13,524.91 - Expiration: May 1, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market shows a distinct upward trend, starting at a 52.0% probability and climbing to a current price of 98.0%. The overall price action suggests that market participants have grown increasingly confident that the outcome will resolve to "YES." This steady climb was punctuated by a period of significant volatility in late April. Specifically, the price saw consecutive drops from 75.0% down to 52.0% between April 23 and April 24, before experiencing a massive 35.0 percentage point spike to 87.0% on April 25. This suggests a brief period of uncertainty or a significant shift in trader positioning before the final trend reasserted itself. Without any specific news or external context provided, the direct causes for the sharp price movements in late April cannot be determined. These fluctuations were likely driven by internal market dynamics, such as large trades or reactions to information not publicly available. The total volume of 5,883 contracts indicates moderate but sustained trading activity over the market's lifetime, suggesting consistent engagement from participants. The 50.0% price level appears to have served as a strong support base, as the market never traded below this point. The current price of 98.0% represents an overwhelming market consensus and reflects extremely high sentiment that the event will occur. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 April 25, 2026: 35.0pp spike Price increased from 52.0% to 87.0% **Outcome:** At least 10 **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 24, 2026: 14.0pp drop Price decreased from 66.0% to 52.0% **Outcome:** At least 10 **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 23, 2026: 9.0pp drop Price decreased from 75.0% to 66.0% **Outcome:** At least 10 **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 18, 2026: 12.0pp spike Price increased from 54.0% to 66.0% **Outcome:** At least 10 **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump deletes at least 5 Truth Social posts created in April 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome will be verified using Roll Call. The market opened on April 13, 2026, closed on April 17, 2026, and payouts are scheduled for May 1, 2026. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | At least 10 | 95% | 99% | 98% | $5,973.83 | $2,311.51 | ## What Ratio of Trump's Deleted Posts Were Corrections vs. Retractions? Ratio of deleted posts (corrections vs. retractions) Q1 2026 | Cannot be determined from available sources [[^]](https://vt.co/news/us/donald-trump-mistake-deleted-truth-social-iran-post). | Example of simple correction-like deletion | Post concerning Iran described as an "embarrassing mistake" [[^]](https://vt.co/news/us/donald-trump-mistake-deleted-truth-social-iran-post) | Example of substantive message retraction-like deletion | Post regarding transgender surgery quietly deleted [[^]](https://wegotthiscovered.com/news/donald-trump-quietly-deleted-a-truth-social-post-one-phrase-about-transgender-surgery-sent-maga-spiraling/) | **The specific ratio of Trump's post deletions is not determinable from current research** The specific ratio of Trump's post deletions is not determinable from current research. Although the available web research provides examples of both types of deletions, it lacks a comprehensive, categorized tally or aggregate data for Q1 2026 (January, February, March) [[^]](https://vt.co/news/us/donald-trump-mistake-deleted-truth-social-iran-post). Without such categorized data, the requested ratio cannot be accurately calculated. Examples of deletions exist, but archival data lacks categorization. These examples include an "embarrassing mistake" post regarding Iran, which could be classified as a simple correction [[^]](https://vt.co/news/us/donald-trump-mistake-deleted-truth-social-iran-post). Another instance involved the quiet deletion of a post concerning transgender surgery, potentially representing a controversial substantive retraction [[^]](https://wegotthiscovered.com/news/donald-trump-quietly-deleted-a-truth-social-post-one-phrase-about-transgender-surgery-sent-maga-spiraling/). Archival sites, such as "Trump's Truth," track removed posts, including records from March 2026, which falls within Q1 [[^]](https://www.trumpstruth.org/?cursor=eyJzdGF0dXNfY3JlYXRlZF9hdCI6IjIwMjYtMDMtMDQgMDI6MTM6MzUiLCJfcG9pbnRzVG9OZXh0SXRlbXMiOnRydWV9&end_date=&per_page=10&query=&removed=include&sort=desc&start_date=). However, these archives typically present the raw content of deleted posts (e.g., [[^]](https://trumpstruth.org/?cursor=eyJzdGF0dXNfY3JlYXRlZF9hdCI6IjIwMjYtMDQtMTMgMDQ6NDM6MTMiLCJfcG9pbnRzVG9OZXh0SXRlbXMiOnRydWV9&end_date=&per_page=10&query=&removed=include&sort=desc&start_date=), [[^]](https://trumpstruth.org/), [[^]](https://www.trumpstruth.org/?cursor=eyJzdGF0dXNfY3JlYXRlZF9hdCI6IjIwMjYtMDMtMDQgMDI6MTM6MzUiLCJfcG9pbnRzVG9OZXh0SXRlbXMiOnRydWV9&end_date=&per_page=10&query=&removed=include&sort=desc&start_date=), [[^]](https://www.trumpstruth.org/?cursor=eyJzdGF0dXNfY3JlYXRlZF9hdCI6IjIwMjYtMDQtMTMgMDY6MzU6NTEiLCJfcG9pbnRzVG9OZXh0SXRlbXMiOnRydWV9&end_date=&per_page=10&query=&removed=include&sort=desc&start_date=)) and do not automatically categorize them into "simple corrections" or "substantive message retractions" based on the specific definitions required. ## What Were Trump's Key Legal Events in April 2026? IRS Lawsuit Skepticism | Judge expressed skepticism on April 24, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/24/politics/judge-questions-trump-irs-treasury-lawsuit) | Immigration Policy Rejected | US appeals court rejected policy on April 29, 2026 [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/29/us-appeals-court-rejects-trumps-immigration-detention-policy) | Election Subversion Trial Date Sought | Trump's lawyers sought April 2026 trial date [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-lawyers-seek-april-2026-trial-date-in-federal-election-subversion-case) | **April 2026 included several significant legal developments for Donald Trump** April 2026 included several significant legal developments for Donald Trump. On April 24, 2026, a judge expressed skepticism during proceedings related to Trump's **$10** billion lawsuit against the IRS and Treasury [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/24/politics/judge-questions-trump-irs-treasury-lawsuit). Additionally, a US appeals court issued a ruling on April 29, 2026, rejecting Trump’s immigration detention policy [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/29/us-appeals-court-rejects-trumps-immigration-detention-policy). Separately, Trump’s legal team actively sought to secure an April 2026 trial date for the federal election subversion case [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-lawyers-seek-april-2026-trial-date-in-federal-election-subversion-case). Historical social media deletions follow Trump's legal pressures and rulings. Past examples include the removal of a Truth Social post complaining about an upcoming hush money trial witness [[^]](https://digital-dev.thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4648421-trump-truth-social-posts-hush-money-criminal-trial/). Deletions also occurred after Judge Merchan imposed fines for violations [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-trial-hush-money-case-live-updates-rcna149906/rcrd40370?canonicalCard=true), and specifically prior to a deadline for a judge's ruling concerning a gag order violation [[^]](https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-deletes-truth-social-posts-just-before-deadline-imposed-by-judges-ruling-he-violated-gag-order/). However, the available sources do not provide quantifiable statistics on a "historical 48-hour deletion frequency" or an average number of deletions within such a timeframe following similar legal events. ## How do Trump's public appearances impact Truth Social deleted posts? Trump Truth Social Post Archives | Comprehensive archives available, including deleted content [[^]](https://trumpstruth.org/?cursor=eyJzdGF0dXNfY3JlYXRlZF9hdCI6IjIwMjYtMDQtMTMgMDQ6NDM6MTMiLCJfcG9pbnRzVG9OZXh0SXRlbXMiOnRydWV9&end_date=&per_page=10&query=&removed=include&sort=desc&start_date=) | Trump Public Appearance Schedule | Archived and filterable by date [[^]](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar) | Direct Comparison of Deleted Posts vs. Public Appearances | Not directly provided in sources for preceding six months [[^]](https://rollcall.com/factbase/topic/twitter) | **Data on Donald Trump's deleted posts is available from several archives** Data on Donald Trump's deleted posts is available from several archives. Various platforms meticulously track and archive Donald Trump's posts on Truth Social, including those that have been subsequently removed. For instance, 'Trump's Truth' provides an option to view removed posts and allows for filtering by date, indicating the existence of historical data on deleted posts [[^]](https://trumpstruth.org/?cursor=eyJzdGF0dXNfY3JlYXRlZF9hdCI6IjIwMjYtMDQtMTMgMDQ6NDM6MTMiLCJfcG9pbnRzVG9OZXh0SXRlbXMiOnRydWV9&end_date=&per_page=10&query=&removed=include&sort=desc&start_date=). Similarly, 'SuperTrumpTracker' offers a complete archive of Trump's posts, which would encompass deleted content [[^]](https://supertrumptracker.com/). These resources are essential for gathering the raw data on deleted posts over any specified period. Public schedule data is archived but not correlated with deleted posts. Donald Trump's public schedule, detailing his physical presence at political rallies or major public events, is also consistently archived. Factba.se, for example, maintains a calendar of the President's public schedule and a social media archive with a calendar map, both of which can be filtered by date [[^]](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar). Although the necessary data points are independently available to conduct such an analysis, none of the provided sources present a synthesized statistical comparison or a "measurable difference" in the rate of deleted posts correlated with his public appearance schedule for the preceding six months. ## Does DJT Stock Volatility Correlate with Trump's Post Deletion Rate? DJT Stock Lowest Price | Hit its lowest price ever [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-disastrous-truth-social-company-184823267.html) | DJT Stock Value Decline | Plunges wiped out billions [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-media-replaces-nunes-as-truth-social-ceo-after-stock-plunge-that-wiped-out-billions) | Post Deletion Reasons Examples | Typos, controversial phrases, judge's ruling [[^]](https://apple.news/ApT0bL-kORRKskZ_ov8L_aA) | **No direct historical correlation exists between DJT stock declines and increased post deletions** No direct historical correlation exists between DJT stock declines and increased post deletions. Research does not establish a causal or correlative link between significant negative price movements (e.g., greater than **5%** daily drops) in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock and an increase in Donald Trump's post deletion rate on Truth Social within a 24-48 hour timeframe. While both phenomena have occurred independently, the available information does not connect them. DJT stock has experienced significant volatility and substantial price declines. The stock has seen notable plunges, including hitting its lowest price ever [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-disastrous-truth-social-company-184823267.html) and experiencing declines that reportedly wiped out billions in value [[^]](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-media-replaces-nunes-as-truth-social-ceo-after-stock-plunge-that-wiped-out-billions). However, the reasons cited for these stock movements relate to broader **market** dynamics and the company's performance, rather than being linked to any activity concerning post deletions [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-disastrous-truth-social-company-184823267.html). Donald Trump's Truth Social post deletions stem from varied, specific reasons. Documented instances of deleted posts are attributed to specific issues such as embarrassing typos [[^]](https://apple.news/ApT0bL-kORRKskZ_ov8L_aA), controversial phrases concerning transgender surgery [[^]](https://wegotthiscovered.com/news/donald-trump-quietly-deleted-a-truth-social-post-one-phrase-about-transgender-surgery-sent-maga-spiraling/), depiction of himself as a Christ-like figure [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/donald-trump-deletes-truth-social-162933024.html), or to comply with a judge's ruling regarding a gag order [[^]](https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-deletes-truth-social-posts-just-before-deadline-imposed-by-judges-ruling-he-violated-gag-order/). These actions are detailed in the available sources with their specific underlying causes, none of which suggest a connection to DJT stock price fluctuations. ## Were Trump's Aides Present During Post Deletions in April 2026? Dan Scavino's Role | Documented adviser to Trump, present in April 2026 [[^]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-adviser-dan-scavino-tries-050051822.html) | Other Aides' Proximity | Jason Miller and Steven Cheung identified as top campaign aides and close to Trump as of April 2025 [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/politics/trump-proximity-to-power-white-house-dg) | Post Deletion Correlation | No available data correlates aides' presence with Trump's post deletion rate [[^]](https://trumpstruth.org/?cursor=eyJzdGF0dXNfY3JlYXRlZF9hdCI6IjIwMjYtMDQtMTMgMDQ6NDM6MTMiLCJfcG9pbnRzVG9OZXh0SXRlbXMiOnRydWV9&end_date=&per_page=10&query=&removed=include&sort=desc&start_date=) | **Specific aides, including Dan Scavino, were present with Trump in April 2026** Specific aides, including Dan Scavino, were present with Trump in April 2026. Dan Scavino was documented advising Trump during this period, notably attempting to initiate a chant at an event as reported in 2026 news coverage [[^]](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-adviser-dan-scavino-tries-050051822.html). While specific travel itineraries for Trump from Factba.se for April 2026 were not detailed [[^]](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/april-2026/), Jason Miller and Steven Cheung were identified as top presidential campaign aides [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/who-are-trumps-top-presidential-campaign-aides-2024-02-01/) and individuals close to Trump's power as of April 2025 [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/politics/trump-proximity-to-power-white-house-dg). This suggests their continued advisory capacities into April 2026. No data links aide presence to Trump's social media post deletion rates. Despite the documented presence of these aides, the available research does not provide historical data or statistics to establish a correlation between their involvement and Trump's social media post deletion rate. Trump did engage in post deletions during April 2026, including the removal of a controversial image around April 13, 2026 [[^]](http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/13/trump-controversial-truth-social-posts/89593605007/), and removed posts for that month were archived [[^]](https://trumpstruth.org/?cursor=eyJzdGF0dXNfY3JlYXRlZF9hdCI6IjIwMjYtMDQtMTMgMDQ6NDM6MTMiLCJfcG9pbnRzVG9OZXh0SXRlbXMiOnRydWV9&end_date=&per_page=10&query=&removed=include&sort=desc&start_date=). However, the research contains no information directly linking these specific deletions to whether Scavino, Miller, Cheung, or any other aide was present or absent at the time. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** May 01, 2026 - **Expiration:** May 01, 2026 - **Closes:** May 01, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU has a new member before 2030?](/markets/politics/international/eu-has-a-new-member-before-2030/) - [Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?](/markets/politics/scotus-courts/will-trump-s-birthright-citizenship-order-come-into-effect/) - [Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?](/markets/politics/international/which-countries-will-normalize-relations-with-israel-before-2027/) - [Which of these African leaders will leave office next?](/markets/politics/international/which-of-these-african-leaders-will-leave-office-next/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 3 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 3 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXTRUMPDELETE-26APR-A7: YES (Apr 17, 2026) - KXTRUMPDELETE-26APR-A6: YES (Apr 17, 2026) - KXTRUMPDELETE-26APR-A5: YES (Apr 17, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.