# How many people will Trump pardon in Apr 2026? Before 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Politics Tags: Recurring HTML: /markets/politics/recurring/how-many-people-will-trump-pardon-in-apr-2026/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** The **model** projects 0 pardons by Trump in April 2026 as less probable (**68.4%**) compared to the **market**'s strong consensus (**87.0%**). ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Trump's first term saw infrequent, backloaded pardon batches.** - Spring 2026 administration focus is on budget and defense policies. - No high-profile pardon pressure points exist for April 2026. - Releasing many pardons could distract from key legislative priorities. - Kash Patel actively advocates for pardons for January 6 defendants. - Historically, large pardon numbers concentrate at term's end. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Market** at 87c (1.1x payout) exceeds **68.4%** **model**, as infrequent batches make a low number more likely. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 87.0% | 68.4% | Trump cannot issue pardons if he is not president in April 2026. | | 10 to 14 | 2.9% | 2.1% | If president, Trump may issue a moderate number of pardons for allies or specific cases. | | 3 to 9 | 9.4% | 7.2% | A few pardons are possible if Trump is president but not in the final phase of his term. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 87.0% | 68.4% | | 10 to 14 | 2.9% | 2.1% | | 3 to 9 | 9.4% | 7.2% | | Above 24 | 6.4% | 4.6% | | 15 to 19 | 10.0% | 7.1% | | 2 | 4.8% | 5.1% | | 1 | 4.9% | 5.2% | | 20 to 24 | 0.0% | 0.4% | - Expiration: May 1, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market has demonstrated a strong and consistent upward trend, starting at a 46.0% probability and climbing to its current price of 87.0%. The price has traded within a wide range, from a low of 46.0% to a high of 96.1%. A significant price movement was detected on April 25, 2026, when the probability jumped 10.0 percentage points from 71.0% to 81.0%. The cause for this specific spike is not apparent from the provided context, as no corresponding news or developments were available. This sharp increase suggests a sudden shift in trader expectations on that day, driven by information not captured in the context. The total trading volume of 2,038 contracts indicates a moderate level of activity over the life of the market. However, without volume data corresponding to specific price movements, it is difficult to assess the conviction behind any particular rally or dip. The market sentiment, as reflected by the price chart, is decidedly bullish. The steady climb from a near-even probability to the current high of 87.0% suggests that traders are increasingly confident that the number of pardons will be greater than zero. From a technical perspective, the market established an initial support level at its starting price of 46.0%. Since then, the price has broken through several potential resistance levels, with the 80% mark appearing to form a new level of support following the April 25th spike. The all-time high of 96.1% currently stands as the primary resistance level, representing the peak of market optimism to date. The consistent upward trajectory implies that market participants have continuously priced in a higher likelihood of an affirmative resolution as the deadline approaches. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: 0 #### 📈 April 25, 2026: 10.0pp spike Price increased from 71.0% to 81.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: 3 to 9 #### 📈 April 22, 2026: 11.0pp spike Price increased from 2.0% to 13.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 21, 2026: 16.8pp drop Price decreased from 18.0% to 1.2% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves to YES if the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to exactly 0 persons between the market's issuance and May 1, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opens on April 1, 2026, and will close early if the event occurs, or by May 1, 2026, at 10:00am EDT. Trading is prohibited for individuals employed by the designated source agencies or those possessing material, non-public information regarding the underlying event. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 86% | 94% | 87% | $3,148.77 | $1,904.37 | | 1 | 0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | $61 | $61 | | 10 to 14 | 0.2% | 3% | 2.9% | $438.47 | $310.47 | | 15 to 19 | 0% | 5.5% | 10% | $92 | $92 | | 2 | 0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | $65 | $65 | | 20 to 24 | 0% | 4.6% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Above 24 | 0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | $214.51 | $214.51 | | 3 to 9 | 1.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | $327.07 | $221 | ## What Were Donald Trump's Pardon Patterns in His First Term? Total Clemency Acts | 237 [[^]](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-j-trump-2017-2021) | Pardons Granted | 70 [[^]](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-j-trump-2017-2021) | Commutations Granted | 167 [[^]](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-j-trump-2017-2021) | **During Donald Trump's first term, clemency was issued in large, infrequent batches** During Donald Trump's first term, clemency was issued in large, infrequent batches. A total of 237 executive clemency actions were granted, comprising 70 pardons and 167 commutations. This pattern often involved bypassing the traditional review process of the Office of the Pardon Attorney (OPA) [[^]](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-j-trump-2017-2021). Clemency actions were heavily concentrated in the final months of his term. The majority of these grants occurred in December 2020 and January 2021. Notable individuals such as Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, and Steve Bannon received clemency during these periods, frequently coinciding with major holidays or other high-profile events [[^]](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-j-trump-2017-2021). The Office of the Pardon Attorney's influence was significantly diminished during this time. The OPA was described as "totally decimated" and "sidelined" throughout Trump's presidency [[^]](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-pardon-office-decimated-ghislaine-maxwell.html). This established trend of operating outside conventional OPA channels is anticipated to continue, suggesting that any future clemency decisions would likely involve large, politically or personally motivated batches rather than a consistent administrative process [[^]](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-pardon-office-decimated-ghislaine-maxwell.html). ## Are Trump Allies Facing Pardon Pressure from April 2026 Legal Deadlines? Steve Bannon Case Status | Dismissal cleared by U.S. Supreme Court (April 2026) [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-supreme-court-clears-way-dismissal-case-against-trump-ally-steve-bannon-2026-04-06/) | Other Allies' April 2026 Deadlines | No federal sentencing or appeal deadlines indicated [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/roger-stone-back-lobbying-game-110000685.html) | DOJ Activities | Paying out allies and undermining investigations (April 25, 2026) [[^]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/25/justice-department-settlements-trump-allies/) | **Steve Bannon's legal issues resolved, negating pardon pressure** Steve Bannon's legal issues resolved, negating pardon pressure. In April 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for the dismissal of a case against Trump ally Steve Bannon, indicating a resolution of his legal challenges rather than a need for a presidential pardon [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-supreme-court-clears-way-dismissal-case-against-trump-ally-steve-bannon-2026-04-06/). News reports on April 6, 2026, confirmed that Bannon appeared likely to have his criminal conviction dismissed following this Supreme Court action [[^]](http://www.guardian.co.uk/us-news/2026/apr/06/steven-bannon-criminal-court-conviction). Consequently, his situation did not create a pressure point for an April pardon [[^]](http://www.guardian.co.uk/us-news/2026/apr/06/steven-bannon-criminal-court-conviction). Other high-profile allies lacked April 2026 pardon pressure points. For high-profile allies such as Roger Stone, Rudy Giuliani, and Ken Paxton, available information does not detail any federal sentencing dates, appeal deadlines, or start-of-imprisonment dates specifically in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/roger-stone-back-lobbying-game-110000685.html). Additionally, an April 25, 2026, report noted that the Department of Justice was paying out Trump allies and undermining former investigations, suggesting a broader trend where legal issues were being resolved or mitigated, rather than escalating to a point requiring pardons during that period [[^]](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/25/justice-department-settlements-trump-allies/). ## What is Kash Patel's role in potential presidential pardons? Key Pardons Gatekeeper | Kash Patel [[^]](http://us.cnn.com/2025/12/08/politics/pardon-trump-who-why) | Primary Beneficiaries Advocated | January 6 defendants / "political prisoners" [[^]](http://us.cnn.com/2025/12/08/politics/pardon-trump-who-why) | Patel's Operational Initiative | Building "shadow transition team" for pardon cases [[^]](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/11/24/kash-patels-acts-of-service) | **Kash Patel has emerged as a central figure influencing potential presidential pardon decisions in a second Trump administration, reportedly acting as a primary gatekeeper for such requests [[^]](http://us.cnn.com/2025/12/08/politics/pardon-trump-who-why)** Kash Patel has emerged as a central figure influencing potential presidential pardon decisions in a second Trump administration, reportedly acting as a primary gatekeeper for such requests [[^]](http://us.cnn.com/2025/12/08/politics/pardon-trump-who-why). He is actively advocating for individuals he characterizes as "political prisoners," a category that notably includes many January 6 defendants [[^]](http://us.cnn.com/2025/12/08/politics/pardon-trump-who-why). Patel is also reported to be assembling a "shadow transition team" specifically to address these pardon cases, suggesting a structured approach to identifying and processing them [[^]](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/11/24/kash-patels-acts-of-service). Advocacy for January 6 defendants is a broad, organized effort. This focus on a wide range of defendants, particularly those involved in the January 6 events, is reinforced by various channels, such as websites like "J6 Pardons" which explicitly campaign for presidential pardons for these individuals [[^]](https://j6pardons.com/). This aligns with a broader sentiment among Trump's allies that certain individuals are unfairly targeted by the justice system [[^]](https://thefederalist.com/2025/11/03/presidential-pardons-are-needed-for-trump-electors-persecuted-by-biden-doj). Advocates like Patel appear to leverage Trump's historical sympathy for those he believes have been unjustly treated in their efforts [[^]](http://us.cnn.com/2025/12/08/politics/pardon-trump-who-why). ## What are the administration's key priorities for Spring 2026? FY2026 Budget Proposal Focus | Massive increase in defense spending; cuts to housing, social services, and health care [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/white-house-budget-proposal-defense-spending-trump) | 2026 National Defense Strategy Release | January 2026 [[^]](https://www.faf.ae/home/2026/1/31/trumps-2026-national-defense-strategy-a-reorientation-of-american-military-priorities-and-strategic-doctrine) | FY2026 Funding Request Release | April 2026 [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/President-Trumps-Fiscal-Year-2026-Discretionary-Funding-Request-Overview.pdf) | **The administration's top legislative priority for Spring 2026 is the FY2026 budget** The administration's top legislative priority for Spring 2026 is the FY2026 budget. Its primary legislative focus centers on the Fiscal Year 2026 discretionary funding request, which was presented in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/President-Trumps-Fiscal-Year-2026-Discretionary-Funding-Request-Overview.pdf). This budget proposal calls for a significant increase in defense spending, while simultaneously suggesting reductions in housing, social services, and health care programs [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/white-house-budget-proposal-defense-spending-trump). This legislative agenda for 2026 is also viewed as a strategic effort to influence the upcoming midterm elections [[^]](https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/trumps-legislative-agenda-in-2026-will-help-shape-midterms). A new National Defense Strategy also reorients American military priorities. In parallel, the administration released its "2026 National Defense Strategy" in January 2026 [[^]](https://media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/2003864773/-1/-1/0/2026-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY.PDF). This document outlines a substantial initiative to reorient American military priorities and strategic doctrine [[^]](https://www.faf.ae/home/2026/1/31/trumps-2026-national-defense-strategy-a-reorientation-of-american-military-priorities-and-strategic-doctrine). The strategic reorientation detailed within the defense strategy aligns with the proposed boost in defense spending described in the FY2026 budget request [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/white-house-budget-proposal-defense-spending-trump). ## What was the shortest lag between Trump's rhetoric and pardons? Shortest Pardon Lag Time | 3 days (for Joe Arpaio) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon_of_Joe_Arpaio) | Total Pardons Granted | 237 pardons [[^]](https://pardons.hackingbutlegal.com/) | Total Commutations Granted | 78 commutations [[^]](https://pardons.hackingbutlegal.com/) | **Donald Trump's rhetoric directly correlated with pardons in specific instances, most notably with Joe Arpaio** Donald Trump's rhetoric directly correlated with pardons in specific instances, most notably with Joe Arpaio. The most direct correlation between Donald Trump's specific public rhetoric and a subsequent pardon announcement is evidenced in the case of Joe Arpaio, demonstrating a 3-day lag [[^]](https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/08/22/trump-signals-may-pardon-arpaio/VKE05Ufg1b0ukbT6jCIQ4K/story.html). At a rally on August 22, 2017, Trump publicly indicated he was "seriously considering" pardoning Arpaio, stating, "I think he's going to be just fine" [[^]](https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/08/22/trump-signals-may-pardon-arpaio/VKE05Ufg1b0ukbT6jCIQ4K/story.html). The official pardon was then issued three days later, on August 25, 2017 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon_of_Joe_Arpaio). Broader rhetoric on 'political prisoners' typically signaled future, not immediate, pardons. While Trump's approach to pardons often involved individuals whose cases caught his attention through media, personal appeals, or the advocacy of his allies and conservative media, favoring those perceived as loyal or victims of overzealous prosecution, his broader rhetoric did not consistently lead to immediate, specific pardon announcements during his presidency [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2025/12/08/politics/pardon-trump-who-why). For example, Trump's frequent use of rallies and social media platforms like Truth Social to express sympathy and call for the release of certain individuals, such as those involved in the January 6 events, typically signaled future intentions rather than immediate actions [[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-rally-north-carolina-speech-jan-6-prisoners-mike-lindell-1696701). Statements promising future pardons, such as for Rep. Henry Cuellar if re-elected, also represented contingent intentions rather than immediate presidential actions [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/henry-cuellar-pardon-trump/?intcid=CNR-02-0623). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 01, 2026 - **Closes:** May 01, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU has a new member before 2030?](/markets/politics/international/eu-has-a-new-member-before-2030/) - [Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?](/markets/politics/scotus-courts/will-trump-s-birthright-citizenship-order-come-into-effect/) - [Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?](/markets/politics/international/which-countries-will-normalize-relations-with-israel-before-2027/) - [Which of these African leaders will leave office next?](/markets/politics/international/which-of-these-african-leaders-will-leave-office-next/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 13 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 2 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAR-6: NO (Apr 01, 2026) - KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAR-24: NO (Apr 01, 2026) - KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAR-22: NO (Apr 01, 2026) - KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAR-2: NO (Apr 01, 2026) - KXPARDONSTRUMP-26MAR-17: NO (Apr 01, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.