# How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (4/26-5/2) Apr 26, 2026 to May 2, 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Politics Tags: Recurring HTML: /markets/politics/recurring/how-many-people-will-trump-endorse-on-truth-social-this-week-4-26-5-2/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Trump to endorse at least 3 people on Truth Social this week, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Trump is scheduled to hold one rally in Central Florida this week.** - Indiana and Ohio primaries are scheduled for May 5, 2026. - Trump often endorses candidates just before upcoming primary elections. - No shift is reported in Trump's endorsement strategy. - No unendorsed GOP candidates publicly met Trump recently. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **89.5%** slightly exceeds the 89c **market**, anticipating higher endorsement activity due to upcoming primaries and a rally. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | At least 20 | 26.0% | 25.4% | Market higher by 0.6pp | | At least 3 | 89.0% | 89.5% | Model higher by 0.5pp | | At least 10 | 66.0% | 66.5% | Model higher by 0.5pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | At least 20 | 26.0% | 25.4% | | At least 3 | 89.0% | 89.5% | | At least 10 | 66.0% | 66.5% | | At least 5 | 75.0% | 75.6% | | At least 15 | 56.0% | 56.2% | | At least 25 | 14.0% | 13.5% | - Expiration: May 3, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics Based on the chart data, this market has exhibited exceptionally low volatility and a clear sideways trend. The price has been tightly range-bound, oscillating between 88.0% and 89.0% since its inception. The market opened at 89.0% and is currently trading at the same level, indicating no net change over the observed period. There have been no significant spikes, drops, or any notable price movements to analyze, suggesting a very stable and unchanging forecast among participants. The absence of price volatility corresponds directly with the lack of any new context or market-moving information. Without any news or developments to influence trader sentiment, the market's initial assessment has remained unchallenged. The price stability indicates that no external events have occurred to cause participants to significantly re-evaluate the probability of the outcome. The total volume of 312 contracts suggests moderate but not aggressive trading activity. This volume, coupled with the flat price, points to a market with a strong and settled conviction. The tight trading range has established a clear support level at 88.0% and a resistance level at 89.0%. Overall, the chart reflects a strong and unwavering market sentiment, with participants consistently pricing in a high probability of a "YES" resolution. The consensus was formed early and has not been meaningfully disputed. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 April 26, 2026: 10.0pp drop Price decreased from 41.0% to 31.0% **Outcome:** At least 20 **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump endorses at least 15 people for their election on Truth Social between April 26, 2026, and May 2, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified from Truth Social, and only new, clear, affirmative statements of support qualify, with reaffirmations of previous endorsements not counting. The market closes for trading on May 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, with a projected payout on the same day at 10:30 AM EDT. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | At least 10 | 65% | 66% | 66% | $290 | $287 | | At least 15 | 56% | 58% | 56% | $86 | $79 | | At least 20 | 26% | 27% | 26% | $383.17 | $352.17 | | At least 25 | 14% | 15% | 14% | $40 | $40 | | At least 3 | 86% | 87% | 89% | $312 | $312 | | At least 5 | 74% | 75% | 75% | $187 | $172 | ## How Many Endorsements Did Trump Make on Truth Social (April 26-May 2)? 2022 Distinct Truth Social Endorsements | 0 (Based on available sources for Truth Social for the period) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_endorsements_by_Donald_Trump) | 2024 Distinct Truth Social Endorsements | 2 (Trent Staggs, Gabe Evans) [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/utah/2024/04/27/donald-trump-endorsed-trent-staggs-for-us-senate-replace-mitt-romney/) | Mean Distinct Endorsements | 1 (Calculated from 2022 and 2024 data) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_endorsements_by_Donald_Trump) | **Donald Trump's Truth Social endorsements varied significantly between election cycles during the specified period** Donald Trump's Truth Social endorsements varied significantly between election cycles during the specified period. For the calendar week of April 26 through May 2, 2024, Donald Trump made two distinct candidate endorsements directly on Truth Social. These included an endorsement for Trent Staggs for the U.S. Senate in Utah, posted on April 27, 2024 [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/utah/2024/04/27/donald-trump-endorsed-trent-staggs-for-us-senate-replace-mitt-romney/), and an endorsement for Congressman Gabe Evans [[^]](https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/30804). In contrast, for the equivalent week in 2022, from April 26 to May 2, no distinct candidate endorsements made by Donald Trump specifically on Truth Social were identified in the available sources. While general lists of his 2022 endorsements exist [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_endorsements_by_Donald_Trump), they do not specify the platform used, resulting in a count of zero for Truth Social postings for that particular week. Statistical analysis reveals a mean of one endorsement across both cycles. Considering the two data points of zero distinct endorsements for 2022 and two distinct endorsements for 2024, the calculated mean number of distinct endorsements is 1. The median number of distinct endorsements for these two data points is also 1. The standard deviation for this set of data points is approximately 1.414. ## Which States Hold Primaries in May 2026 With Trump Endorsements? Indiana Primary Election Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 [[^]](https://www.ballotready.org/elections/indiana-primary-election-88c718cc-59b9-4938-9f43-8f189f9e3729) | Ohio Primary Election Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 [[^]](https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/03/04/ohio-2026-primary-election-date-candidates-ballot-voting-changes/88978232007/) | Trump Endorsement Activity | Several challengers for Indiana state legislative seats actively seeking Trump's favor [[^]](https://eu.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/09/trump-endorses-republican-challengers-redistricting-indiana/89531838007/) | **Indiana and Ohio primaries are scheduled for May 5, 2026** Indiana and Ohio primaries are scheduled for May 5, 2026. Within the May 3-10, 2026 timeframe, both Indiana and Ohio are scheduled to hold their primary elections on Tuesday, May 5, 2026 [[^]](https://www.ballotready.org/elections/indiana-primary-election-88c718cc-59b9-4938-9f43-8f189f9e3729). These dates mark a significant period for political activity in both states. Indiana's GOP primaries show active seeking of Trump's endorsement. Contested Republican primary races are underway in Indiana, particularly for congressional and legislative seats [[^]](https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/indiana-2026-primary-election-guide-statewide-nominations). Several challengers in state legislative races are actively courting former President Trump's endorsement to gain an advantage in these crowded fields, with many Republicans seeking to align themselves with him [[^]](https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/trump-issues-endorsements-for-indiana-republicans-who-supported-redistricting). Trump has already issued multiple endorsements for various Republican candidates in Indiana's GOP primary races, often targeting incumbent state senators who voted against a recent redistricting map [[^]](https://www.wishtv.com/news/indiana-republican-primary-trump/). However, a precise count of candidates still actively and publicly seeking his endorsement, beyond those already endorsed or generally described, is not specified in the available information. Ohio lacks information on candidates seeking Trump's endorsement. Information regarding contested GOP primary candidates actively and publicly seeking Trump's endorsement in Ohio for the May 2026 primary was not found in the provided sources [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_Party_primaries_in_Ohio,_2026). ## Is Trump's Endorsement Strategy Shifting in Primary Races? Shift to batching/late endorsements | No intelligence indicates a shift to batching endorsements by state or holding them until the final days before a primary [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/exclusive-maggie-haberman-jonathan-swan-book-on-trump-regime-change-coming-in-june). | Engagement in Texas primaries | Trump "flooded" the 2026 Texas primaries with endorsements [[^]](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/03/03/donald-trump-texas-endorsements-republican-primaries-2026/). | Selectivity in endorsements | He has selectively "dodged" or "sat out" endorsements in "messy" or "nastiest" GOP Senate primary battles [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3392202/trump-endorsements-messy-gop-senate-primaries/). | **Current reporting suggests no shift in Trump's endorsement strategy** Current reporting suggests no shift in Trump's endorsement strategy. There is no intelligence from journalists with established sources, such as Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, indicating a move towards batching endorsements by state or consistently delaying them until the final days before a primary [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/exclusive-maggie-haberman-jonathan-swan-book-on-trump-regime-change-coming-in-june). Instead, available information shows an active and often early approach to endorsements. For instance, Donald Trump "flooded" the 2026 Texas primaries with endorsements in March, demonstrating a proactive engagement that contradicts any strategy of delaying endorsements [[^]](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/03/03/donald-trump-texas-endorsements-republican-primaries-2026/). Trump's strategy prioritizes selectivity over changes in timing or batching. He has reportedly "dodged" endorsements in "messy" GOP Senate primaries [[^]](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3392202/trump-endorsements-messy-gop-senate-primaries/) and opted out of some of the "nastiest primary battles" where Senate control is at stake, causing concern among Republican leaders [[^]](https://us.cnn.com/2026/02/08/politics/trump-primary-endorsements-senate-house-republicans). Recent endorsements continue to be individual announcements, not batched releases, as seen with a key House race [[^]](https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/04/16/trump-makes-endorsement-in-key-house-race/), State Senator Carrie Buck [[^]](https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/37769), and an entrepreneur in New York [[^]](https://conservativeinstitute.org/politics/trump-endorses-upstart-entrepreneur-over-gop-establishment-pick-for-stefaniks-new-york-house-seat.htm). Furthermore, Trump has committed to endorsing in specific runoff situations, such as the Cornyn-Paxton race in Texas [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/04/politics/trump-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-endorsement), reinforcing a targeted, ongoing endorsement process rather than a shift to delayed or batched releases. ## What is Donald Trump's Schedule and Endorsement Pattern for April 2026? Scheduled Event | Rally in Central Florida on April 27, 2026 [[^]](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/april-2026/) | Other Events (April 26-May 2, 2026) | No multi-day rallies or legal proceedings listed [[^]](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/april-2026/) | Endorsement Pattern | Increased before primaries/visits, e.g., March 2026 Texas primaries [[^]](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/03/03/donald-trump-texas-endorsements-republican-primaries-2026/) | **Donald Trump's public schedule for April 26 to May 2, 2026, indicates one notable event** Donald Trump's public schedule for April 26 to May 2, 2026, indicates one notable event. This is a single-day rally in Central Florida scheduled for April 27, 2026 [[^]](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/april-2026/). The provided sources do not contain details regarding multi-day rallies or legal proceedings for this specific period [[^]](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/april-2026/). Past events show Trump increases endorsements near political events. Evidence from the past twelve months, specifically early 2026, demonstrates a pattern of heightened endorsement activity on Truth Social around significant political events. For example, Donald Trump "flooded" the 2026 Texas primaries with endorsements, particularly ahead of the March 3, 2026, primary date [[^]](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/03/03/donald-trump-texas-endorsements-republican-primaries-2026/). He also released a "massive list of endorsements" on Truth Social "just days ahead of key primaries" [[^]](https://m.americanhertiageco.com/trump-rolls-out-massive-list-of-endorsements-on-truth-social-just-days-ahead-of-key-primaries/). Furthermore, a "flurry of endorsements" was observed "en route to a Texas visit," linking high endorsement activity to campaign stops [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-launches-flurry-endorsements-en-193213228.html). This pattern suggests that significant campaign events or primary periods often precede a surge in endorsement releases from Donald Trump on Truth Social. ## Have Unendorsed GOP Candidates Met Trump at Mar-a-Lago Recently? Unendorsed candidates meeting Trump | Zero (0) (Based on research findings) [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/new-jersey/donald-trump-new-jersey-jack-ciattarelli-bill-spadea-20250327.html) | Relevant timeframe for meetings | 30 days prior to April 26, 2026 (March 27, 2026 - April 26, 2026) [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/new-jersey/donald-trump-new-jersey-jack-ciattarelli-bill-spadea-20250327.html) | Dates of reported meetings outside timeframe | March 2025 (e.g., Ciattarelli, Spadea) [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/new-jersey/donald-trump-new-jersey-jack-ciattarelli-bill-spadea-20250327.html) | **No unendorsed GOP candidates publicly announced recent meetings with Donald Trump** No unendorsed GOP candidates publicly announced recent meetings with Donald Trump. Research indicates no unendorsed Republican candidates publicly announced a meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago or Bedminster within the 30 days prior to April 26, 2026, specifically between March 27, 2026, and April 26, 2026. While many sources detail GOP candidates seeking Trump's endorsement, no public reports of meetings occurring within this specific timeframe were identified. For instance, an article from April 16, 2026, noted that "there has not yet been a public meeting, a private dinner or even a phone call between Trump and any of the major candidates" in Maine's Republican gubernatorial primary, despite their efforts to secure his backing [[^]](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/04/16/politics/elections/donald-trump-endorsement-maine-governor-joam40zk0w/). Past meetings and current endorsements fell outside the specified timeframe. Several news reports detailed meetings between Donald Trump and New Jersey GOP candidates Jack Ciattarelli and Bill Spadea at his Bedminster golf club, or their attendance at fundraisers [[^]](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/new-jersey/donald-trump-new-jersey-jack-ciattarelli-bill-spadea-20250327.html). However, these events are consistently dated to March 2025, which falls outside the required 30-day window prior to April 26, 2026. Other sources mentioned Trump's presence at galas or general efforts by Minnesota Republicans to obtain endorsements, but did not specify any announced meetings within the relevant period [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-palm-beach-gop-gala-202020947.html). Furthermore, an article from April 27, 2026, indicated Trump "may head to Mar-a-Lago" on that day, which is after the period in question and did not report prior meetings [[^]](https://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/story/news/trump/2026/04/27/trump-may-head-to-mar-a-lago-on-first-trip-since-press-dinner-shooting/89819895007/). While an endorsement was issued to Anthony Constantino, a meeting within the timeframe was not specified, and he would subsequently no longer be considered "unendorsed" [[^]](https://www.nny360.com/top_stories/trump-endorses-anthony-constantino-for-ny-21-bucking-state-gop-local-republican-commitees/article_40acabf3-d91a-5ebf-b1d7-e283156ca190.html). Therefore, no candidates meeting the criteria of publicly announced meetings within the stipulated timeframe were identified. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** May 03, 2026 - **Expiration:** May 03, 2026 - **Closes:** May 03, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU has a new member before 2030?](/markets/politics/international/eu-has-a-new-member-before-2030/) - [Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?](/markets/politics/scotus-courts/will-trump-s-birthright-citizenship-order-come-into-effect/) - [Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?](/markets/politics/international/which-countries-will-normalize-relations-with-israel-before-2027/) - [Which of these African leaders will leave office next?](/markets/politics/international/which-of-these-african-leaders-will-leave-office-next/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 12 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 4 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A5: NO (Apr 26, 2026) - KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A3: NO (Apr 26, 2026) - KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A25: NO (Apr 26, 2026) - KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A20: NO (Apr 26, 2026) - KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A15: NO (Apr 26, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.