# How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026? In Apr 2026 Updated: April 28, 2026 Category: Politics Tags: Recurring Trump HTML: /markets/politics/recurring/how-many-bills-will-president-trump-sign-in-apr-2026/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect 4 bills to be signed, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - The market already excludes fewer than four bills signed.** - Midterm Aprils historically average 14 to 16 presidential bill signings. - President Trump previously signed a high volume of minor legislation. - House Republicans indicate strong alignment with a Trump legislative agenda. - Senate pragmatism and midterm campaigning could limit bill volume. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Market** at 59c exceeds the **50.2%** **model** for 4 bills, suggesting overvaluation given historical improbability. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 | 36.0% | 33.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | | 4 | 59.0% | 50.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | | 6 | 6.0% | 9.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 | 36.0% | 33.1% | | 4 | 59.0% | 50.2% | | 6 | 6.0% | 9.4% | | 7 | 4.0% | 7.3% | - Expiration: May 1, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market has demonstrated a strong upward trend, starting at a 9.0% probability and climbing to its current price of 59.0%. The overall price action shows increasingly bullish sentiment over the market's duration. This trend has been punctuated by significant volatility, particularly in late April. The most notable movements include a sharp 8.0 percentage point drop on April 23rd, followed by a series of powerful spikes: a 10.0pp gain on April 18th, a 12.0pp gain on April 27th, and a 17.0pp gain on April 28th. These rapid, consecutive increases pushed the price to a new high for the period shown, signaling a dramatic shift in market expectations as the resolution date neared. The provided context does not offer specific news or events to explain these significant price movements. Therefore, the drivers for the spikes and drops appear to be internal to the market's dynamics rather than a reaction to external information. The total traded volume of 3,774 contracts indicates a moderately active market. However, the sample data shows major price changes occurring on days with zero reported volume, which suggests that these shifts may have been driven by market maker adjustments or a small number of trades rather than broad market participation. In terms of key price levels, the drop to 30.0% on April 23rd established a temporary support level before the subsequent rally. The price broke through previous resistance around the 38%-42% range, and the all-time high of 73.0% remains the next significant resistance level to watch. Overall, the chart indicates a decisive shift in market sentiment from bearish to strongly bullish. The consistent upward trend and the recent acceleration in price suggest that traders have grown increasingly confident in a "YES" resolution. The current price of 59.0% reflects a majority expectation that the number of bills signed will meet the criteria for a "YES" outcome, a stark reversal from the low probability assigned when the market opened. The intense volatility near the end of the month highlights a period of rapid re-evaluation by market participants. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: 4 #### 📈 April 28, 2026: 17.0pp spike Price increased from 42.0% to 59.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 18, 2026: 10.0pp spike Price increased from 15.0% to 25.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: 7 #### 📉 April 27, 2026: 13.0pp drop Price decreased from 15.0% to 2.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: 5 #### 📈 April 24, 2026: 10.0pp spike Price increased from 39.0% to 49.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 23, 2026: 25.0pp spike Price increased from 21.0% to 46.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if President Trump signs exactly 4 bills into law in April 2026, otherwise it resolves to NO. Joint resolutions are included in the count, and the outcome is verified by the White House and Library of Congress. The market opened on April 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, and will close early if the event occurs, or by May 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT. Payout is projected 30 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 | 54% | 58% | 59% | $4,065.94 | $2,372.13 | | 5 | 36% | 41% | 36% | $5,212.71 | $3,147.45 | | 6 | 2% | 8.2% | 6% | $616.59 | $430.66 | | 7 | 0.5% | 4% | 4% | $31.29 | $18 | ## How Does Government Control Affect Bill Signings in Midterm Aprils? Average Bills Signed (Divided Govt) | 15.8 bills [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/app-attributes/bill-signing?items_per_page=10) | Average Bills Signed (Unified Govt) | 14.0 bills [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/app-attributes/bill-signing?items_per_page=10) | Standard Deviation (Divided Govt) | 5.9 bills [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/app-attributes/bill-signing?items_per_page=10) | **Since 1982, bill signings in April vary by government control** Since 1982, bill signings in April vary by government control. An analysis of 11 midterm election years reveals distinct patterns in the number of bills signed by presidents in April, depending on whether government was divided or unified. Under a divided government, where the presidency and at least one chamber of Congress were controlled by different parties, presidents signed an average of 15.8 bills during the six instances of midterm Aprils. Examples include 1982 with 11 bills and 2014 with 8 bills. The standard deviation for this scenario is approximately 5.9 bills, indicating a moderate spread in legislative activity [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/app-attributes/bill-signing?items_per_page=10). Unified government midterm Aprils show fewer bills and less variability. In contrast, during the five midterm April periods under a unified government, where the same party controlled the presidency, House, and Senate, presidents signed an average of 14.0 bills. This includes years such as 1994 with 12 bills and 2022 with 10 bills. The standard deviation for unified government during these periods is approximately 4.7 bills, suggesting a slightly tighter range of legislative activity compared to divided government scenarios. Data for bill signings was obtained by examining public laws enacted each April for the specified midterm election years, with government control determined by party affiliations during each respective April [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/app-attributes/bill-signing?items_per_page=10). ## When Were SBIR/STTR Programs Reauthorized by Congress in 2026? Programs Reauthorized | Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr5371enr/html/BILLS-119hr5371enr.htm) | Reauthorization Date | April 1, 2026 [[^]](https://www.iedconline.org/news/2026/04/01/federal-policy-updates/congress-reauthorizes-the-small-business-innovation-research-sbir-and-small-business-technology-transfer-sttr-programs/) | New Authorization Expiration | September 30, 2030 [[^]](https://www.iedconline.org/news/2026/04/01/federal-policy-updates/congress-reauthorizes-the-small-business-innovation-research-sbir-and-small-business-technology-transfer-sttr-programs/) | **The Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs were a key legislative priority** The Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs were a key legislative priority. These vital programs, designed to support small businesses in federal research and development, were initially authorized through September 30, 2025 [[^]](https://www.insidegovernmentcontracts.com/2026/03/is-congress-finally-reauthorizing-sbir-sttr-and-whats-changing/). Their impending expiration created a pressing need for legislative action within the March-May 2026 timeframe to ensure their continuation. Congress successfully reauthorized SBIR/STTR programs by April 1, 2026. This crucial legislative action ensured the uninterrupted operation of the programs. The reauthorization extended their funding and operational authority through September 30, 2030 [[^]](https://www.iedconline.org/news/2026/04/01/federal-policy-updates/congress-reauthorizes-the-small-business-innovation-research-sbir-and-small-business-technology-transfer-sttr-programs/). Other legislative items have later expiration dates, fitting the March-May 2026 window less directly. While components of the Farm Bill and various appropriations bills also require congressional attention in 2026, their primary expiration dates are generally set for September 30, 2026 [[^]](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/upcoming-congressional-fiscal-policy-deadlines). This earlier expiration date for SBIR/STTR made its reauthorization a more direct and compelling legislative item for action during the March-May 2026 period. ## What Proportion of Laws Are Minor or Symbolic? Total laws signed (2017) | 96 [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/12/27/573546883/trump-signed-96-laws-in-2017-here-is-what-they-do-and-how-they-measure-up) | Significant laws (2017) | 28% [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/12/27/573546883/trump-signed-96-laws-in-2017-here-is-what-they-do-and-how-they-measure-up) | Minor/symbolic laws (2017) | 72% [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/12/27/573546883/trump-signed-96-laws-in-2017-here-is-what-they-do-and-how-they-measure-up) | **During President Donald Trump's first year, minor bills comprised the majority of signed laws** During President Donald Trump's first year, minor bills comprised the majority of signed laws. In 2017, President Donald Trump signed 96 laws, with a content analysis revealing that only 27 of these, or 28 percent, were classified as significant or substantive [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/12/27/573546883/trump-signed-96-laws-in-2017-here-is-what-they-do-and-how-they-measure-up). This indicates that approximately 72 percent of the bills enacted were considered minor, technical, or symbolic [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/12/27/573546883/trump-signed-96-laws-in-2017-here-is-what-they-do-and-how-they-measure-up). For instance, within his initial 100 days in office, just 10 out of 28 signed laws involved major policy changes, with others being more obscure or technical [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/04/27/525753448/white-house-touts-historic-28-laws-signed-by-trump-but-what-are-they). Minor bills continue to appear in the current legislative pipeline. The ongoing presence of such legislation is evident as the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to consider "several postal naming measures," among other legislation [1) H.R. 7274, Federal Acquisition Security Council Improvement Act of 2026; 2) H.R. 2985, Modernizing Government Technology Reform Act; 3) H.R. 4123, Federal Improvement in Technology Procurement Act; 4) H.R. 7283, Ensuring Federal Purchasing Efficiency Act; 5) H.R. 1118, Value Over Cost Act of 2025; 6) H.R. 5438, Incentivize Savings Act; 7) H.R. 5000, Cybersecurity Hiring Modernization Act; 8) H.R. 7256, Federal Workforce Early Separation Incentives Act; 9) H.R. 7265, Vote By Mail Tracking Act; 10) Several postal naming measures. | Committee Repository | U.S. House of Representatives">[^]](https://docs.house.gov/Committee/Calendar/ByEvent.aspx?EventId=118936). This demonstrates that minor or symbolic bills, such as the naming of post offices, remain an active part of the legislative process within the U.S. House of Representatives [1) H.R. 7274, Federal Acquisition Security Council Improvement Act of 2026; 2) H.R. 2985, Modernizing Government Technology Reform Act; 3) H.R. 4123, Federal Improvement in Technology Procurement Act; 4) H.R. 7283, Ensuring Federal Purchasing Efficiency Act; 5) H.R. 1118, Value Over Cost Act of 2025; 6) H.R. 5438, Incentivize Savings Act; 7) H.R. 5000, Cybersecurity Hiring Modernization Act; 8) H.R. 7256, Federal Workforce Early Separation Incentives Act; 9) H.R. 7265, Vote By Mail Tracking Act; 10) Several postal naming measures. | Committee Repository | U.S. House of Representatives">[^]](https://docs.house.gov/Committee/Calendar/ByEvent.aspx?EventId=118936). ## How Do Republicans Align with a Potential Trump Legislative Agenda? House Republican Alignment | United and in sync with Trump's Day One Agenda [[^]](https://www.majorityleader.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=4334) | Senate Leader's Role | Help Trump administration understand 'what's realistic' in the Senate [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-thune-interview-senate-majority-leader-donald-trump-agenda/) | Senate Independent Action | May push legislation 'despite Trump opposition,' risking a veto [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-congress-should-pass-houses-federal-spending-plan-pass-one-bill-2025-02-19/) | **House Republicans plan unified legislative action with a Trump administration** House Republicans plan unified legislative action with a Trump administration. Presumptive House leader Steve Scalise has consistently affirmed that House Republicans are 'united and in sync' with a second Trump administration's 'Day One Agenda' [[^]](https://www.majorityleader.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=4334). This collaborative stance aims to facilitate the passage of 'critical legislation' and 'reverse the Biden administration's policies' [[^]](https://www.majorityleader.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=4334). Scalise has also highlighted an agreement between Republican leadership and Donald Trump to pursue legislative goals through specific strategies, such as focusing on a single reconciliation bill for key priorities [[^]](https://digital-dev.thehill.com/homenews/house/5099197-trump-agenda-republican-united/). This approach signals a preference for pre-negotiated legislative paths to maximize success and ensure bills are signed into law, thereby avoiding potential vetoes. Senate leadership seeks realism but may challenge a Trump administration. In the Senate, presumptive Majority Leader John Thune has articulated a role in helping a potential Trump administration understand 'what's realistic' within the chamber [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-thune-interview-senate-majority-leader-donald-trump-agenda/). This pragmatic perspective focuses on advancing legislation that can successfully pass the Senate and garner presidential assent. While such a stance might lead to pre-negotiated bills, there is also an indication that Senate Republicans could be willing to advance legislation even in the face of opposition from Donald Trump. For example, Senate Republicans have been reported to consider pushing ahead with a border bill 'despite Trump opposition' [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-congress-should-pass-houses-federal-spending-plan-pass-one-bill-2025-02-19/). This suggests a readiness to pursue legislative initiatives that might not have full presidential backing and could potentially provoke a veto, indicating a more nuanced legislative relationship. ## How Might Trump's 2026 Midterm Campaign Affect Bill Signings? Bills Signed (First 100 Days) | 28 [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/04/27/525753448/white-house-touts-historic-28-laws-signed-by-trump-but-what-are-they) | Total Bills Signed (June 2017) | 40 [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/29/politics/president-trump-legislation) | April 2026 (Midterm Context) | Six months prior to November 2026 elections [[^]](https://ktar.com/arizona-election-news/trump-republican-midterms/5849060/) | **Donald Trump's first term balanced legislative action with significant public outreach** Donald Trump's first term balanced legislative action with significant public outreach. During his initial 100 days, President Trump signed 28 bills [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/04/27/525753448/white-house-touts-historic-28-laws-signed-by-trump-but-what-are-they), with the total reaching 40 by late June 2017 [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/29/politics/president-trump-legislation). While some analyses highlighted this legislative output [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2017/04/27/525753448/white-house-touts-historic-28-laws-signed-by-trump-but-what-are-they), others noted a concurrent emphasis on expanding executive power [[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-signs-laws-first-100-days-pushes-expand-executive-power-rcna202208). His presidency was also characterized by a robust schedule of frequent public rallies and extensive media appearances [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/donald-j-trump-event-timeline), which often competed for his time and attention alongside formal bill-signing ceremonies [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/donald-j-trump-event-timeline). These engagements were central to his communication strategy and public persona, influencing the scheduling of other presidential duties. April 2026 suggests Donald Trump's focus will shift heavily to campaigning. The anticipated 2026 midterm campaign calendar, approximately six months before the November elections, marks a critical period for rallying support for his party's candidates [[^]](https://ktar.com/arizona-election-news/trump-republican-midterms/5849060/). Reports confirm plans for him to rally Republicans in anticipation of the midterms [[^]](https://ktar.com/arizona-election-news/trump-republican-midterms/5849060/). This intensified campaign focus, combined with his established preference for rallies [[^]](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/donald-j-trump-event-timeline), indicates that campaign events and media appearances are likely to dominate his agenda, potentially leading to a reduction in formal bill-signing ceremonies unless they strategically align with campaign messaging. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 01, 2026 - **Closes:** May 01, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU has a new member before 2030?](/markets/politics/international/eu-has-a-new-member-before-2030/) - [Which of these African leaders will leave office next?](/markets/politics/international/which-of-these-african-leaders-will-leave-office-next/) - [Trump's approval rating on May 1, 2026?](/markets/politics/recurring/trump-s-approval-rating-on-may-1-2026/) - [Will Trump balance the budget?](/markets/politics/trump/will-trump-balance-the-budget/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-3.0: NO (Apr 27, 2026) - KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-2.0: NO (Apr 27, 2026) - KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-1.0: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-0.0: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXBILLSCOUNT-26MAR-10T: NO (Apr 01, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.