# Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026?

Before Jan 2027

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: Congress

HTML: /markets/politics/congress/who-will-testify-in-front-of-congress-in-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Bill Clinton to testify in front of Congress in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - James Comer is likely House Oversight Committee Chair, influencing future hearings.** - Representatives Lieu and Obernolte introduced consolidated AI safety legislation in 2026.
- Meta Platforms faces an active FTC monopolization case and appeal in 2026.
- Jon Stewart's advocacy secured a formal Senate hearing for veterans' health.
- House Foreign Affairs Democrats formally requested Marco Rubio's testimony on Iran.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 62c prices higher than the **57.1%** **model**, implying overvaluation with an expected value of $-7.89.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 19.0% | 6.5% | James Comer's stated priorities for the House Oversight Committee in the 119th Congress do not encompass issues relevant to Ghislaine Maxwell's past, strongly suggesting she is unlikely to be called, despite the market expecting testimony from other high-profile individuals. |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 40.0% | 27.0% | The provided background research offers no specific information or citations about Mark Zuckerberg testifying in 2026, yet his history of testifying on ongoing tech-related issues provides a general rationale for the market's existing expectation that he could be called again. |
| Jerome Powell | 56.0% | 46.1% | James Comer, as incoming chair of the House Oversight Committee, prioritizes "finance-related concerns" and "accountability," which provides a plausible reason for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to testify, supporting the market's position. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 19.0% | 6.5% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 40.0% | 27.0% |
| Jerome Powell | 56.0% | 46.1% |
| Shou Zi Chew | 53.0% | 40.7% |
| Sam Altman | 62.0% | 57.1% |
| Anthony Fauci | 22.0% | 11.5% |
| James Donaldson | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Jon Stewart | 16.0% | 7.5% |
| Jelly Roll | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Pete Hegseth | 95.0% | 93.4% |
| Kamala Harris | 13.0% | 5.7% |
| Joe Biden | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Taylor Swift | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Barack Obama | 9.1% | 3.6% |

- Expiration: January 1, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, this market has experienced a distinct upward trend. The probability started at 55.0% and rose to its current level of 62.0%, where it has remained. The most significant price movement was a 7-percentage-point increase that occurred sometime between April 15th and April 26th. According to the information supplied, there is no specific news or external context available to explain the direct cause of this sharp increase in probability. The price has since stabilized at this new, higher level.

The market's trading volume is relatively low, with a total of 51 contracts exchanged. The initial price was established on some volume, but recent price points at the 62.0% level show zero volume, indicating a lack of recent trading activity. This low volume suggests that while sentiment has shifted, the current price has not been heavily tested and may not reflect a broad market consensus. The price action has established an initial support level at 55.0% and a clear resistance level at the current high of 62.0%. The chart indicates a shift in market sentiment towards a higher likelihood of the event occurring, though the low conviction, as suggested by the volume, is a notable factor.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📉 April 15, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 75.0% to 56.0%

**Outcome:** Jerome Powell

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Shou Zi Chew provides live testimony in an official U.S. House or Senate committee proceeding, including depositions, either in-person or remotely, under committee authority, between the market's issuance and January 1, 2027. Invoking the Fifth Amendment, submitting written testimony without a live appearance, or making statements outside of official committee hearings do not qualify as testifying. The market closes early if the event occurs, otherwise by January 1, 2027, with resolution based on sources like C-SPAN, the New York Times, and the Associated Press.

## Market Discussion

Traders in this market are actively discussing various individuals potentially testifying before Congress, including Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and Ghislaine Maxwell, even though Jerome Powell, Shou Zi Chew, and Mark Zuckerberg show the highest current probabilities. A key point of discussion centers on the market rule that invoking the Fifth Amendment does not count as testimony, with one trader adjusting their bet on Ghislaine Maxwell after realizing this rule's implication. Beyond this, individual predictions are made without explicit arguments for or against testimony.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Anthony Fauci | 23% | 28% | 22% | $816 | $579 |
| Barack Obama | 2% | 8% | 9.1% | $11.23 | $10.23 |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 17% | 20% | 19% | $33,324.71 | $4,458.71 |
| Joe Biden | 6% | 13% | 14% | $203 | $203 |
| James Donaldson | 17% | 21% | 17% | $314 | $14 |
| Jerome Powell | 57% | 58% | 56% | $5,948.63 | $3,316.89 |
| Jelly Roll | 8% | 14% | 6% | $266 | $221 |
| Jon Stewart | 13% | 17% | 16% | $306 | $218 |
| Kamala Harris | 6% | 13% | 13% | $221 | $201 |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 40% | 46% | 40% | $7,027.21 | $1,770.34 |
| Pete Hegseth | 92% | 95% | 95% | $265.11 | $185.11 |
| Sam Altman | 57% | 62% | 62% | $3,264.71 | $1,159.71 |
| Shou Zi Chew | 48% | 53% | 53% | $5,627 | $1,787.68 |
| Taylor Swift | 6% | 14% | 6% | $137 | $56 |

## What Are James Comer's Priorities for House Oversight Committee?

House Oversight Committee Chair | James Comer (119th Congress) [[^]](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-to-return-as-chairman-of-oversight-committee-in-the-119th-congress/) |
Top Priority 1 | Biden Administration accountability [[^]](https://oversight.house.gov/release/chairman-comer-releases-oversight-committees-accomplishments-for-the-118th-congress/) |
Top Priority 2 | Combating waste, fraud, and abuse [[^]](https://oversight.house.gov/release/chairman-comer-releases-oversight-committees-accomplishments-for-the-118th-congress/) |

**Congressman James Comer is confirmed as the likely House Oversight Committee Chair**

Congressman James Comer is confirmed as the likely House Oversight Committee Chair. Following the 2024 election, Congressman James Comer is expected to serve as the incoming Chair for the House Oversight Committee in the 119th Congress [[^]](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-to-return-as-chairman-of-oversight-committee-in-the-119th-congress/). His primary publicly stated investigative priorities for this term include holding the Biden Administration accountable, actively combating waste, fraud, and abuse within the federal government, and modernizing government operations [[^]](https://oversight.house.gov/release/chairman-comer-announces-full-committee-markup-of-legislation-to-improve-and-modernize-government-operations/). These priorities are anticipated to cover investigations concerning past administrations, address various finance-related issues, and initiatives aimed at improving technology and overall government efficiency [[^]](https://oversight.house.gov/release/chairman-comer-announces-full-committee-markup-of-legislation-to-improve-and-modernize-government-operations/).

Information for other committees is not available in the research. The provided research does not include details regarding the likely incoming chairs or specific publicly stated investigative priorities for either the House Judiciary Committee or the House Energy & Commerce Committee for the 119th Congress [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Committee_on_the_Judiciary).

## What Federal Legislation Targeted AI Safety and TikTok in 2026?

Consolidated AI Bill | Introduced by Reps. Lieu and Obernolte in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/lieu-and-obernolte-introduce-consolidated-ai-bill-package/413134/) |
Federal AI Standards | Bipartisan Senate bill revived in 2026 [[^]](https://www.meritalk.com/articles/bipartisan-senators-revive-bill-to-codify-federal-ai-standards-center/) |
TikTok Joint Venture | Congressional scrutiny called for in January 2026 [[^]](http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/world/senator-says-congress-must-investigate-tiktok-deal-faults-lack-details-2026-01-23/) |

**Federal AI safety legislation saw significant legislative and committee activity in 2026**

Federal AI safety legislation saw significant legislative and committee activity in 2026. Representatives Lieu and Obernolte introduced a consolidated AI bill package in April [[^]](https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/lieu-and-obernolte-introduce-consolidated-ai-bill-package/413134/), while a bipartisan group of senators revived a bill to codify a Federal AI Standards Center, indicating support for establishing federal standards [[^]](https://www.meritalk.com/articles/bipartisan-senators-revive-bill-to-codify-federal-ai-standards-center/). Further legislative efforts included H.R. 8037, the "Protect American AI Act of 2026" [[^]](https://docs.house.gov/committee/calendar/ByEvent.aspx?EventID=119119), and a bill led by Representative Jen Kiggans aimed at strengthening U.S. leadership in AI [[^]](https://kiggans.house.gov/posts/kiggans-leads-bill-to-strengthen-u-s-leadership-in-ai). These initiatives were accompanied by committee discussions such as the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology's "Assessing America's AI Action Plan" in February [[^]](https://docs.house.gov/Committee/Calendar/ByEvent.aspx?EventID=118803), and a Senate Commerce Committee meeting titled "Less Hype, More Help: AI That Improves Safety, Productivity, and Care" [[^]](https://www.commerce.senate.gov/meetings/less-hype-more-help-ai-that-improves-safety-productivity-and-care/).

Legislative efforts focused on TikTok's ownership and related tech antitrust in 2026. Lawmakers in January called for congressional scrutiny of a TikTok joint venture deal, citing a lack of transparency [[^]](http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/world/senator-says-congress-must-investigate-tiktok-deal-faults-lack-details-2026-01-23/). By March, a senator questioned the White House regarding whether TikTok investors would pay **$10** billion to the U.S. Treasury, highlighting ongoing financial and ownership concerns [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/senator-wants-white-house-answer-if-tiktok-investors-will-pay-10-billion-us-2026-03-17/). H.R. 1468, "the Protect America’s Innovation and Economic Security from CCP Act of 2025," also appeared on a House Committee calendar in 2026, which could address entities linked to the Chinese Communist Party, including TikTok [[^]](https://docs.house.gov/committee/calendar/ByEvent.aspx?EventID=119119). Notably, no specific federal antitrust bills directly targeting tech platforms were identified in the available research [[^]](https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/lieu-and-obernolte-introduce-consolidated-ai-bill-package/413134/).

## Are Meta, OpenAI, and Clinton Foundation Facing Resolution in 2026?

Meta Investigation Status | Active FTC monopolization case, appeal ruling projected January 2026 [[^]](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/01/ftc-appeals-ruling-meta-monopolization-case) |
OpenAI Investigation Status | Active FTC investigation regarding ChatGPT, no public resolution timeline indicated for 2025/2026 [[^]](https://natlawreview.com/article/openai-ftc-opens-investigation) |
Clinton Foundation Investigation | Not under active investigation by specified agencies with projected resolution in late 2025/first half 2026 [[^]](https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/new-records-reveal-dojs-yearslong-efforts-to-shut-down-investigation-into-clinton-foundation) |

**Meta Platforms, Inc**

Meta Platforms, Inc. faces an active monopolization case with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The FTC is currently appealing a ruling in this case, with a public press release indicating the appeal is scheduled for January 2026 [[^]](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2026/01/ftc-appeals-ruling-meta-monopolization-case). This timeline places Meta within the specified period for a projected public resolution or indictment in the first half of 2026, as further detailed in documentation related to FTC v. Meta [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTC_v._Meta).

Other listed entities lack confirmed resolution timelines within the specified period. OpenAI is under an active investigation by the Federal Trade Commission concerning its ChatGPT product [[^]](https://natlawreview.com/article/openai-ftc-opens-investigation). However, the provided sources do not specify a projected public resolution or indictment timeline for this investigation falling in late 2025 or the first half of 2026. Regarding the Clinton Foundation, while past investigations are noted, such as an IRS criminal probe in 2019 that was "abruptly stopped" [[^]](https://wgxa.tv/news/nation-world/new-memos-show-irs-opened-criminal-probe-into-clinton-foundation-in-2019-abruptly-stopped-irs-new-jersey) and "yearslong efforts to shut down" a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation [[^]](https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/new-records-reveal-dojs-yearslong-efforts-to-shut-down-investigation-into-clinton-foundation), current information indicates the Clinton Foundation is not subject to an active, formal investigation by the DOJ, FTC, or SEC with a projected public resolution or indictment timeline occurring within late 2025 or the first half of 2026 [[^]](https://thefederalist.com/2026/04/27/breaking-new-fbi-clinton-doc-reinforces-deep-states-dual-standard-of-justice/).

## Which Celebrity Advocacy Campaigns Have 2026 Congressional Hearings?

Jon Stewart Advocacy Hearing | January 2026, Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee [[^]](https://www.veterans.senate.gov/2026/1/building-a-21st-century-va-health-care-system-assessing-efforts-to-restructure-the-veterans-health-administration) |
Taylor Swift Ticketing Reform Hearing | No formal commitments identified [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/taylor-swift-act-other-efforts-target-sky-high-concert-ticket-prices-2024-04-25/) |
Jelly Roll Fentanyl Campaign Hearing | No formal commitments identified [[^]](https://abcnews.go.com/US/jelly-roll-delivers-impassioned-testimony-congress-lawmakers-push/story?id=106300450) |

**Jon Stewart's advocacy secured a formal hearing for veterans' health**

Jon Stewart's advocacy secured a formal hearing for veterans' health. His ongoing campaign for veterans' health has led to a commitment from the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee for a formal hearing in January 2026 [[^]](https://www.veterans.senate.gov/2026/1/building-a-21st-century-va-health-care-system-assessing-efforts-to-restructure-the-veterans-health-administration). This hearing, titled "Building a 21st Century VA Health Care System: Assessing Efforts to Restructure the Veterans Health Administration," will directly address issues central to Stewart's advocacy, including his past testimony that influenced the passage of the Honoring Our PACT Act, which concerns veterans' exposure to toxic fumes [[^]](https://www.veterans.senate.gov/2026/1/building-a-21st-century-va-health-care-system-assessing-efforts-to-restructure-the-veterans-health-administration).

Taylor Swift and Jelly Roll lack confirmed 2026 hearing commitments. Despite significant advocacy efforts, neither Taylor Swift's nor Jelly Roll's campaigns have secured specific formal hearing commitments for the 2026 calendar year. Taylor Swift's work on ticketing reform has spurred discussions and proposed legislation aimed at addressing high concert ticket prices [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/taylor-swift-act-other-efforts-target-sky-high-concert-ticket-prices-2024-04-25/). Similarly, Jelly Roll's impassioned testimony before Congress regarding the fentanyl crisis contributed to the introduction of new anti-fentanyl legislation, H.R.27 - HALT Fentanyl Act, for the 119th Congress (2025-2026) [[^]](https://abcnews.go.com/US/jelly-roll-delivers-impassioned-testimony-congress-lawmakers-push/story?id=106300450). However, key committee sponsors have not confirmed a 2026 hearing commitment for either of these initiatives.

## Who Did House Foreign Affairs Democrats Request For Iran War Testimony?

Requested Witnesses | Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Steven Witkoff, Jared Kushner [[^]](https://democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/2026/3/house-committee-on-foreign-affairs-democrats-demand-testimony-from-rubio-hegseth-witkoff-and-kushner-on-iran-war) |
Request Date and Topic | March 2026, concerning the Iran War [[^]](https://democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/2026/3/house-committee-on-foreign-affairs-democrats-demand-testimony-from-rubio-hegseth-witkoff-and-kushner-on-iran-war) |
Historical Follow-Through Rate (Chairmanship) | Not available from provided sources [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RS22637.html) |

**Witnesses formally requested by ranking members are limited**

Witnesses formally requested by ranking members are limited. House Foreign Affairs Committee Democrats formally requested testimony from Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Steven Witkoff, and Jared Kushner in March 2026, specifically concerning the Iran War [[^]](https://democrats-foreignaffairs.house.gov/2026/3/house-committee-on-foreign-affairs-democrats-demand-testimony-from-rubio-hegseth-witkoff-and-kushner-on-iran-war). These demands were issued via letters from ranking committee members for future appearances. Beyond these individuals and Jerome Powell's statutorily mandated testimony, other available sources discuss general oversight requests or past testimony but do not detail formal requests for future testimony initiated by letters from ranking committee members [[^]](https://watsoncoleman.house.gov/newsroom/press-releases/watson-coleman-leads-letter-to-january-6th-select-committee-urging-them-to-move-swiftly-despite-resistance-from-witnesses). For instance, Kevin Warsh's testimony was tied to his Federal Reserve nomination, not a broader hearing request from a ranking member [[^]](https://www.mfdf.org/news-resources/news/2026/04/27/fed-nominee-warsh-testifies-in-senate-banking-committee-hearing).

Historical follow-through rates for hearing requests remain undeterminable. The historical follow-through rate for hearings requested by these specific members, particularly if they were to assume a chairmanship, cannot be determined from the provided research results. While the available sources explain the process of requesting testimony, including the minority witness rule, they do not offer data or statistics on the success rate of such requests being transformed into actual hearings once the requesting members attain a chairmanship [[^]](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RS22637.html).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 01, 2027
- **Closes:** January 01, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 2 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 2 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-HCLI: YES (Feb 26, 2026)
- KXCONGRESSTESTIFY-27JAN-BCLI: YES (Feb 27, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.