# Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July? Before Jul 1, 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Politics Tags: Congress HTML: /markets/politics/congress/which-tariffs-will-the-house-vote-to-eliminate-before-july/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Brazil, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- House Ways and Means Committee lacks public tariff elimination schedule.** USTR committed to maintaining Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods. Lobbying for tariffs on Mexican goods surged in early 2026. Must-pass legislation in June offers opportunities for amendments. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **1%** **probability** suggests **market** overprices at 5c (20x payout potential if **model** is correct) given USTR's commitment to existing tariffs. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Global | 5.0% | 1.0% | The evidence indicates no public schedule for tariff elimination markups or hearings before July 2026, strongly supporting the market's low probability that the House will vote to eliminate tariffs, despite the introduction of related legislation. | | Mexico | 3.0% | 0.6% | Official committee sources indicate no public information or scheduled legislative action for tariff elimination in the May-June 2026 timeframe, strongly supporting the very low probability reflected by the 1.0% debiased price and suggesting it should be even lower. | | Brazil | 8.9% | 1.6% | The House Ways and Means Committee's publicly available legislative schedules show no planned markups or votes on tariff elimination before July 2026, strongly suggesting the market's 3.5% probability is too high, despite the introduction of some related tariff legislation. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Global | 5.0% | 1.0% | | Mexico | 3.0% | 0.6% | | Brazil | 8.9% | 1.6% | - Expiration: July 1, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market has exhibited a sideways trend, trading within a narrow range between 5.0% and 13.0% probability. The market's starting price was 5.0%, and after a brief period of upward movement, it has returned to this level. The most significant price movement was a sharp 8.0 percentage point drop on April 28, 2026, which saw the probability fall from a peak of 13.0% back down to 5.0%. The provided context does not offer a specific news event or development to explain this sudden reversal. The total volume of 4,494 contracts over the market's life suggests moderate engagement, but the sample data indicates that some price changes have occurred on very low or zero daily volume, which can sometimes signal a lack of broad market conviction behind a move. From a technical perspective, the price action has established clear support and resistance levels. The 5.0% mark has acted as a strong support level, representing the floor from which the price has started and to which it has returned. Conversely, the 13.0% level has served as a firm resistance point, capping the market's optimism before the price fell sharply. This range-bound activity suggests a market struggling to find a clear direction but ultimately defaulting to a pessimistic baseline. Overall, the chart indicates a persistent bearish sentiment regarding the likelihood of the House voting to eliminate tariffs by the July 2026 deadline. The current price of 5.0% is at the bottom of its historical range, reflecting very low confidence among traders. The failure to sustain the brief rally to 13.0% and the subsequent sharp decline reinforce the prevailing view that such a legislative outcome is highly improbable. The market has consistently priced this event as a long shot. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Mexico #### 📉 April 29, 2026: 9.0pp drop Price decreased from 12.0% to 3.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Global #### 📉 April 28, 2026: 8.0pp drop Price decreased from 13.0% to 5.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Brazil #### 📈 April 17, 2026: 8.8pp spike Price increased from 1.2% to 10.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves to "Yes" if legislation terminating or limiting global tariffs imposed by the U.S. President passes the full House of Representatives before July 1, 2026. Conversely, if no such legislation passes the full House chamber by that deadline, the market resolves to "No." The outcome is verified using the Library of Congress, and the market closes upon the event's first occurrence or by July 1, 2026, at 12:00 am EDT. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brazil | 3% | 7% | 8.9% | $11,083.97 | $4,145.75 | | Global | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5% | $24,596.03 | $6,568.7 | | Mexico | 4% | 10% | 3% | $15,373.08 | $6,437.2 | ## What is House Ways and Means Committee's Tariff Elimination Schedule for May-June 2026? Legislative Agenda May-June 2026 | Not publicly available [[^]](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/calendar) | Related Legislation Introduced | Stop Global Tariffs Act [[^]](https://panetta.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-panetta-authors-and-introduces-bipartisan-stop-global-tariffs-act); bills to eliminate specific tariffs/reclaim trade authority [[^]](https://delbene.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=4304) | Tariff Bill Scheduling May-June 2026 | No markups or hearings scheduled for May-June 2026 [[^]](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/calendar) | **The House Ways and Means Committee's legislative agenda for May and June 2026, including specific markups or hearings, is not detailed in publicly available committee calendars, markups, or hearings pages [[^]](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/calendar)** The House Ways and Means Committee's legislative agenda for May and June 2026, including specific markups or hearings, is not detailed in publicly available committee calendars, markups, or hearings pages [[^]](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/calendar). These resources typically provide information on current or recently scheduled committee activities, rather than specific plans for events more than two years in the future. No tariff elimination markups are currently scheduled despite new bills. While no future schedule for specific committee activities is available, legislation related to tariff policy has been introduced in the House. For instance, the "Stop Global Tariffs Act" was authored and introduced by Rep. Panetta [[^]](https://panetta.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-panetta-authors-and-introduces-bipartisan-stop-global-tariffs-act). Additionally, Ways and Means Democrats have introduced legislation to eliminate specific tariffs and reclaim Congress's trade authority, including a bill from Rep. DelBene proposing to eliminate recent tariffs and refund importers [[^]](https://delbene.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=4304). However, the provided research does not indicate any scheduled markups or hearings on these or other bills specifically proposing the elimination of tariffs on goods from Mexico, Brazil, or globally, for the May and June 2026 period [[^]](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/calendar). Therefore, any potential votes on such measures before July 1, 2026, cannot be confirmed through the provided sources. ## What Were the Key Tariff Lobbying Trends in Early 2026? Overall Lobbying Surge | Surged in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.legistorm.com/pro_news/4301/tariff-bill-lobbying-surges-in-q1-amid-trade-concerns.html) | Steel Industry Focus | Increased advocacy on Mexican steel imports [[^]](https://crawford.house.gov/posts/congressional-steel-caucus-leaders-send-letter-to-administration-to-address-surge-of-mexican-steel-imports) | Brazilian Tariff Lobbying | At least R$ 9.8 million in early 2026 [[^]](https://www.em.com.br/economia/2026/02/7355602-companhias-gastaram-ao-menos-rs-98-milhoes-em-lobby-nos-eua-contra-tarifaco.html) | **Lobbying for tariffs on Mexican goods surged in early 2026** Lobbying for tariffs on Mexican goods surged in early 2026. According to Q1 and Q2 2026 lobbying disclosure reports, there was a significant increase in overall spending dedicated to tariff-related advocacy efforts [[^]](https://www.legistorm.com/pro_news/4301/tariff-bill-lobbying-surges-in-q1-amid-trade-concerns.html). The steel industry, in particular, intensified its focus on tariffs concerning Mexican imports. This was evidenced by leaders of the Congressional Steel Caucus dispatching a letter to the administration to address a notable rise in Mexican steel imports, signaling a push for protective measures or against the removal of current tariffs [[^]](https://crawford.house.gov/posts/congressional-steel-caucus-leaders-send-letter-to-administration-to-address-surge-of-mexican-steel-imports). Companies such as O'Neal Industries and Nucor, previously active in steel tariff advocacy, demonstrated the sector's sustained and likely heightened engagement during this period [[^]](https://legis1.com/news/steel-tariff-lobbying-oneal-industries/). Companies significantly increased lobbying against tariffs on Brazilian goods. Regarding trade with Brazil, various companies collectively spent at least R$ 9.8 million on lobbying efforts in the United States during February 2026, specifically targeting a "tarifaco" (big tariff) [[^]](https://www.em.com.br/economia/2026/02/7355602-companhias-gastaram-ao-menos-rs-98-milhoes-em-lobby-nos-eua-contra-tarifaco.html). Concurrently, the automotive industry showed heightened lobbying activity, with General Motors reporting record lobbying expenditures in early 2026, identifying tariffs as a primary area of focus [[^]](https://www.notus.org/money/general-motors-lobbying-spending-tariffs-autonomous-vehicles). This reflects a broader industry-wide engagement in trade policy, which could encompass goods originating from both Mexico and Brazil. ## What is the Consensus on Tariff Impact Among Key House Members? Specific House Members Identified | Not identifiable in 'Toss-Up' or 'Lean' districts for April 2026 [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/cook-house-ratings-2026/) | Consensus on Tariff Elimination Impact | Cannot be determined due to lack of specific member identification [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/cook-house-ratings-2026/) | Relevant Congressional Opinion Source (April 2026) | One broad source on tariffs from unnamed 'local members of Congress' in Orange County [[^]](https://www.ocregister.com/2026/04/02/in-house-opinions-local-members-of-congress-on-trumps-tariff-policies/) | **A comprehensive answer regarding the consensus among House members in 'Toss-Up' or 'Lean' districts on tariff elimination's impact is not possible** A comprehensive answer regarding the consensus among House members in 'Toss-Up' or 'Lean' districts on tariff elimination's impact is not possible. The primary reason is that available sources do not identify specific House members representing districts with these ratings in April 2026 [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/cook-house-ratings-2026/). Consequently, without knowing the individual members, their public statements or local press interviews cannot be analyzed to determine a consensus on the impact of tariff elimination on constituent jobs versus consumer prices. Limited available information does not meet specific research criteria for analysis. While one article dated April 2, 2026, discusses "In-House Opinions" on "Trump's tariff policies" among "local members of Congress" from Orange County, it does not name the specific members, indicate if their districts are rated 'Toss-Up' or 'Lean', or detail their views on the impact of tariff elimination specifically on constituent jobs versus consumer prices [[^]](https://www.ocregister.com/2026/04/02/in-house-opinions-local-members-of-congress-on-trumps-tariff-policies/). Other available sources discussing tariffs or their economic impacts are either dated prior to April 2026 or do not provide specific statements from members confirmed to be in 'Toss-Up' or 'Lean' districts within the required timeframe [[^]](https://bacon.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2886). Therefore, the requested consensus among this specific group of House members cannot be ascertained from the provided information. ## What Is the USTR's Latest Stance on China Tariffs and Trade Practices? Tariff Stance | Vast majority of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods should remain in place (USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer, April 22, 2026) [[^]](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/congressional-affairs/congressional-hearings-and-testimony/2026/opening-statement-ambassador-jamieson-greer-house-ways-and-means-committee) | Enforcement Focus | Aggressively pursuing remedies for unfair trade practices including excess capacity and forced labor [[^]](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/congressional-affairs/congressional-hearings-and-testimony/2026/opening-statement-ambassador-jamieson-greer-house-ways-and-means-committee) | Forced Labor Hearings | Public hearings announced in April 2026 for Section 301 investigations into forced labor [[^]](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/april/public-hearings-regarding-section-301-investigations-relating-failures-take-action-forced-labor) | **The United States Trade Representative (USTR) affirmed its strong commitment to maintaining existing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods** The United States Trade Representative (USTR) affirmed its strong commitment to maintaining existing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods. On April 22, 2026, USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer testified before the House Ways and Means Committee, declaring that the "vast majority of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods should remain in place" [[^]](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/congressional-affairs/congressional-hearings-and-testimony/2026/opening-statement-ambassador-jamieson-greer-house-ways-and-means-committee). This firm stance against the elimination of tariffs may have contributed to **market** uncertainty and a reported sharp drop in **market** price on April 28, 2026 [[^]](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/congressional-affairs/congressional-hearings-and-testimony/2026/opening-statement-ambassador-jamieson-greer-house-ways-and-means-committee). Beyond existing tariffs, the USTR is also pursuing new remedies for unfair trade practices. Ambassador Greer further emphasized the USTR's intention to "aggressively pursue remedies for unfair trade practices including excess capacity and forced labor" [[^]](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/congressional-affairs/congressional-hearings-and-testimony/2026/opening-statement-ambassador-jamieson-greer-house-ways-and-means-committee). Supporting this robust enforcement focus, the USTR announced in April 2026 public hearings for Section 301 investigations regarding failures to address forced labor, which build upon investigations initiated in March 2026 [[^]](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/april/public-hearings-regarding-section-301-investigations-relating-failures-take-action-forced-labor). These ongoing actions signal a trade policy direction centered on continued restrictions rather than reductions, further reinforcing the unlikelihood of tariff elimination and potentially influencing **market** reactions [[^]](https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/april/public-hearings-regarding-section-301-investigations-relating-failures-take-action-forced-labor). ## What Must-Pass Legislation Is Expected in June 2026? House Session | Most of June 2026 [[^]](https://pressgallery.house.gov/schedules/2026-house-calendar?page=0) | NDAA FY2027 Floor Consideration | Late May or early June 2026 [[^]](https://punchbowl.news/article/defense/ndaa-schedule-house/) | FY2027 Appropriations Markups | May-June 2026 [[^]](https://appropriations.house.gov/fy27-information/fy27-markup-schedule) | **June 2026 offers significant 'must-pass' legislative opportunities for amendments** June 2026 offers significant 'must-pass' legislative opportunities for amendments. The House of Representatives is scheduled to be in session for the majority of June 2026 [[^]](https://pressgallery.house.gov/schedules/2026-house-calendar?page=0), providing a legislative window for significant activity. One primary vehicle expected to advance is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2027. This crucial bill, annually considered 'must-pass', is anticipated to undergo full House floor consideration in late May or early June 2026, following its House Armed Services Committee markup in May [[^]](https://punchbowl.news/article/defense/ndaa-schedule-house/). Appropriations bills also provide key legislative vehicles during June 2026. The House Committee on Appropriations has scheduled its markups for the twelve FY2027 appropriations bills to extend through May and June 2026. These bills, which fund government operations and are also considered 'must-pass', are aimed to be passed out of committee by early July 2026, suggesting active movement through the House legislative process during June 2026 [[^]](https://appropriations.house.gov/fy27-information/fy27-markup-schedule). Both the NDAA and appropriations bills typically operate under rules that permit the consideration of various amendments, making them realistic vehicles for a tariff elimination amendment. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** July 01, 2026 - **Closes:** July 01, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU has a new member before 2030?](/markets/politics/international/eu-has-a-new-member-before-2030/) - [Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?](/markets/politics/scotus-courts/will-trump-s-birthright-citizenship-order-come-into-effect/) - [Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?](/markets/politics/international/which-countries-will-normalize-relations-with-israel-before-2027/) - [Which of these African leaders will leave office next?](/markets/politics/international/which-of-these-african-leaders-will-leave-office-next/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.