# How long will the next FISA authorization be?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Updated: April 28, 2026

Category: Politics

Tags: Congress

HTML: /markets/politics/congress/how-long-will-the-next-fisa-authorization-be/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect at least 30 days for the next FISA authorization, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Recent long-term FISA reauthorization efforts faced decisive failure.** - Systemic FBI Section 702 abuses fuel legislative opposition.
- A House procedural vote on FISA reauthorization failed decisively.
- Legislative divisions indicate difficulty for a long-term extension.
- FISA reauthorization votes are consistently scheduled very near deadlines.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **80.2%** **probability** versus 80c **market**, with a 1.2x payout, given deep divisions for shorter authorization.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 30 days | 80.0% | 80.2% | Deep legislative divisions and recent failures make a short-term reauthorization more probable. |
| At least 90 days | 75.0% | 75.4% | Continued legislative divisions and FBI concerns indicate a shorter authorization is likely. |
| At least 2 years | 57.0% | 46.3% | The recent failure of a long-term bill and FBI abuses hinder a multi-year reauthorization. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 30 days | 80.0% | 80.2% |
| At least 90 days | 75.0% | 75.4% |
| At least 2 years | 57.0% | 46.3% |
| At least 1 year | 63.0% | 52.2% |
| At least 5 years | 3.0% | 2.4% |

- Expiration: January 1, 2028

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market, which asks if the next FISA authorization will last until at least January 1, 2028, has seen a general downward trend in probability. The price opened at 86.0%, peaked at 90.0%, and now stands at its low of 80.0%. The most significant movement occurred between April 25th and April 28th, 2026, when the price dropped sharply from 89.0% to 80.0%. This 9-point decline represents a substantial negative shift in trader sentiment during that short period. As no specific news or external context has been provided, the direct cause for this significant re-evaluation by the market is not apparent from the chart data alone.

The total volume of 12,924 contracts traded indicates a moderate level of engagement and financial conviction among participants over the life of the market. The price range has established clear technical levels. The 80.0% mark is currently acting as a significant support level, representing the lowest point of confidence observed. Conversely, the 90.0% level has served as a resistance point, marking the peak of market optimism. The price action's failure to stay near its highs and its subsequent decline to the bottom of its trading range suggests that initial confidence has eroded.

Overall, the chart reflects a market that remains confident in a "YES" outcome but has become less certain over time. The downward trend from a high of 90% to the current 80% indicates that while traders still believe a long-term FISA extension is the most likely scenario, their conviction has weakened. The current price at the 80% support level is a critical juncture; a hold at this level could indicate stabilization, while a break below it would signal a further decline in market sentiment.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: At least 1 year

#### 📉 April 28, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 78.0% to 63.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: At least 2 years

#### 📈 April 23, 2026: 37.0pp spike

Price increased from 35.0% to 72.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after issuance extends the authority by at least 2 years; otherwise, it resolves to "No." A presidential pocket veto that expires also results in a "No" resolution. The market opened on April 21, 2026, and will close early if the outcome occurs, otherwise, it closes by January 1, 2028, at 10:00 am EST, with verification from the Library of Congress.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 1 year | 63% | 65% | 63% | $5,793.28 | $4,545 |
| At least 2 years | 51% | 58% | 57% | $9,681.09 | $3,784.24 |
| At least 30 days | 79% | 81% | 80% | $14,224 | $4,674.1 |
| At least 5 years | 3% | 4% | 3% | $2,211 | $2,180 |
| At least 90 days | 71% | 76% | 75% | $10,071.52 | $2,222.93 |

## What are House Leaders' Stances on FISA Section 702 Extension?

House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan | Supports FISA Section 702 extension, reversing previous stance [[^]](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279645872). |
House Judiciary Ranking Member Jamie Raskin | Emphasizes reforms to protect civil liberties during reauthorization [[^]](https://democrats-judiciary.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/ranking-member-raskin-s-opening-statement-at-hearing-on-fisa-reforms-to-protect-americans-civil-liberties). |
HPSCI Ranking Member Jim Himes | Strongly supports preserving and reauthorizing FISA 702 [[^]](https://himes.house.gov/2026/3/himes-statement-on-fisa-702-reauthorization), [[^]](https://www.troib.com/ive-been-taking-a-ton-of-risk-how-jim-himes-is-leading-the-fight-to-preserve-a-key-surveillance-authority). |

**Regarding the House Judiciary Committee, its leaders hold differing views on FISA Section 702**

Regarding the House Judiciary Committee, its leaders hold differing views on FISA Section 702. Chairman Jim Jordan (R) supports the extension of FISA Section 702, which marks a change from his previous position on surveillance powers [[^]](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279645872). The duration of his preferred extension, however, is not specified in the available information [[^]](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279645872). Ranking Member Jamie Raskin (D) consistently highlights the necessity of reforms to FISA to safeguard Americans' civil liberties during reauthorization discussions [[^]](https://democrats-judiciary.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/ranking-member-raskin-s-opening-statement-at-hearing-on-fisa-reforms-to-protect-americans-civil-liberties). His focus indicates a preference for amendments and protections over an unamended extension, though sources do not detail a specific preferred duration or explicit opposition to the reauthorization itself [[^]](https://democrats-judiciary.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/ranking-member-raskin-s-opening-statement-at-hearing-on-fisa-reforms-to-protect-americans-civil-liberties).

HPSCI Ranking Member Jim Himes strongly supports FISA reauthorization. Jim Himes (D) is a strong advocate for continuing and reauthorizing FISA Section 702 [[^]](https://himes.house.gov/2026/3/himes-statement-on-fisa-702-reauthorization), [[^]](https://www.troib.com/ive-been-taking-a-ton-of-risk-how-jim-himes-is-leading-the-fight-to-preserve-a-key-surveillance-authority). He has actively participated in the reauthorization process, including proposing amendments, demonstrating his commitment to maintaining this surveillance authority while shaping its terms [[^]](https://himes.house.gov/2026/4/ranking-member-himes-offers-amendment-to-fisa-section-702). Information regarding specific public statements or voting records on FISA Section 702 extension duration for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chair was not available in the provided research.

## What Unlawful FBI Section 702 Searches Were Uncovered?

Extent of Abuses | Hundreds of thousands of U.S. persons' communications queried without authorization [[^]](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/new-fisa-court-opinion-reveals-continuing-violations-fbi) |
Key Report | March 2026 Department of Justice Inspector General (DOJ OIG) report [[^]](https://oig.justice.gov/news/doj-oig-releases-report-fbis-querying-practices-under-section-702-foreign-intelligence) |
Examples of Targets | U.S. Senator, state judge, state political party official, journalist, humanitarian relief efforts [[^]](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/new-fisa-court-opinion-reveals-continuing-violations-fbi) |

**Declassified rulings and reports confirm systemic Section 702 abuses**

Declassified rulings and reports confirm systemic Section 702 abuses. Declassified rulings from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) and reports from the Department of Justice (DOJ) Inspector General (IG) have detailed systemic and politically sensitive abuses of the Section 702 database against U.S. persons in the 12 months preceding congressional votes on FISA Section 702 reauthorization in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.intelligence.gov/assets/documents/702-documents/declassified/2025/FISC_Opinion_2_Apr_2025_2024_Cert_D_Redacted_8-19-25_final.pdf). A March 2026 DOJ OIG report, announced in May 2026, specifically highlighted "serious deficiencies" and "continuing violations" by the FBI regarding its querying practices under Section 702 [[^]](https://oig.justice.gov/news/doj-oig-releases-report-fbis-querying-practices-under-section-702-foreign-intelligence). This report, along with declassified FISC opinions from April and March 2025, confirmed that the FBI had routinely violated privacy rules during searches of intelligence collected under Section 702 [[^]](https://www.intelligence.gov/assets/documents/702-documents/declassified/2025/FISC_Opinion_2_Apr_2025_2024_Cert_D_Redacted_8-19-25_final.pdf).

Violations involved extensive unauthorized queries of U.S. persons. The findings indicated that hundreds of thousands of Americans' communications were queried without proper authorization, and FBI queries consistently failed to comply with statutory and court-ordered requirements [[^]](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/new-fisa-court-opinion-reveals-continuing-violations-fbi). The OIG report specifically identified a lack of training and oversight regarding the appropriate use of querying procedures [[^]](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/new-fisa-court-opinion-reveals-continuing-violations-fbi).

Improper queries targeted diverse and politically sensitive groups. Examples of improper queries included those related to the January 6th Capitol attack, racial justice protests, political donors, a U.S. Senator, a state judge, a state-level political party official, a journalist who had published an article about a foreign government, and individuals involved in humanitarian relief efforts [[^]](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/new-fisa-court-opinion-reveals-continuing-violations-fbi). These detailed violations underscore systemic issues and politically sensitive abuses of the Section 702 database against U.S. persons.

## Why is FISA Section 702 Reauthorization Facing Legislative Hurdles?

Long-term Reauthorization Bill Status | Failed in House, April 2026 [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/nx-s1-5797964/after-2-failed-votes-mike-johnson-unveils-new-plan-to-extend-key-u-s-spy-powers) |
Short-term Extensions | Approved 10-day extensions [[^]](https://www.nextgov.com/policy/2026/04/house-passes-10-day-fisa-extension-after-prospects-long-term-deal-collapse/412933/) |
Speaker Johnson's Plan | Announced "new plan" after failed votes [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/nx-s1-5797964/after-2-failed-votes-mike-johnson-unveils-new-plan-to-extend-key-u-s-spy-powers) |

**Efforts to secure a long-term reauthorization of FISA Section 702 faced significant setbacks**

Efforts to secure a long-term reauthorization of FISA Section 702 faced significant setbacks. In April 2026, legislative attempts, including H.R. 8035, did not pass the House of Representatives [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/nx-s1-5797964/after-2-failed-votes-mike-johnson-unveils-new-plan-to-extend-key-u-s-spy-powers). These failures were widely reported as a "House revolt" and a "collapse" of prospects for a comprehensive agreement [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/nx-s1-5797964/after-2-failed-votes-mike-johnson-unveils-new-plan-to-extend-key-u-s-spy-powers). Following these difficulties, Congress resorted to passing multiple 10-day extensions of the program to prevent its expiration, highlighting the substantial challenges in achieving consensus for a standalone, long-term reauthorization [[^]](https://www.nextgov.com/policy/2026/04/house-passes-10-day-fisa-extension-after-prospects-long-term-deal-collapse/412933/).

The consistent failure of standalone reauthorization bills suggests alternative legislative strategies are probable. The repeated difficulties in passing a standalone long-term reauthorization bill indicate that advancing the next FISA reauthorization solely as a separate piece of legislation will likely continue to be challenging. While the provided sources do not explicitly detail Speaker Johnson's "new plan" [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/nx-s1-5797964/after-2-failed-votes-mike-johnson-unveils-new-plan-to-extend-key-u-s-spy-powers) or directly state that reauthorization will be attached to a "must-pass" legislative vehicle like the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or an omnibus spending bill, the ongoing struggles with standalone deals imply that such alternative strategies are being considered to ensure its eventual passage.

## What Was the Outcome of the House FISA Reauthorization Rule Vote?

Rule Vote Outcome | Failed [[^]](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2026124) |
Vote Margin | 35 votes [[^]](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2026124) |
Vote Date | April 16, 2026 [[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/119-2026/h124) |

**The House of Representatives' procedural vote on FISA reauthorization failed decisively**

The House of Representatives' procedural vote on FISA reauthorization failed decisively. On April 16, 2026, the procedural 'rule' vote (H.Res. 1175) for debating the next FISA reauthorization bill (H.R. 8035) did not pass. This vote aimed to allow for the consideration of H.R. 8035, which sought to extend the authorities of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act through October 20, 2027. The vote failed by a significant margin of 35 votes, with 193 members voting Yea and 228 voting Nay [[^]](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2026124).

This outcome reveals leadership's weak position, indicating likely compromise. The failure of this crucial rule vote highlights a challenging situation for House leadership in advancing the FISA reauthorization through the legislative process [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/24/nx-s1-5797964/after-2-failed-votes-mike-johnson-unveils-new-plan-to-extend-key-u-s-spy-powers). This result suggests a higher **probability** of compromise, potentially leading to a shorter-term extension, given the internal disagreements within the House and the necessity for a revised strategy following these unsuccessful attempts [[^]](https://www.harianbasis.co/en/house-gop-postpones-fisa-vote).

## How Close Does Congress Schedule FISA Reauthorization Votes to Deadlines?

2024 House Vote | 7 days before expiration [[^]](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/fisa-section-702-reauthorized-for-two-years) |
2024 Senate Vote | On expiration day [[^]](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/fisa-section-702-reauthorized-for-two-years) |
2018 Senate Vote | 3 days before expiration [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/16/politics/senate-fisa-bill) |

**FISA reauthorization votes are consistently scheduled very near expiration dates**

FISA reauthorization votes are consistently scheduled very near expiration dates. For the April 2024 reauthorization of Section 702, which was set to expire on April 19, 2024 [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48592), the House of Representatives passed a two-year bill on April 12, 2024, seven days prior to the deadline [[^]](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/fisa-section-702-reauthorized-for-two-years). The Senate subsequently passed the bill on April 19, 2024, the exact day of expiration, with final approval occurring just after the previous authorization had momentarily lapsed [[^]](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/fisa-section-702-reauthorized-for-two-years). This pattern of last-minute legislative activity often necessitates short-term "clean" extensions to prevent programmatic lapses [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/house-passes-10-day-fisa-section-702-extension-in-late-night-vote-congress-senate-republicans-democrats-capitol-hill-president-donald-trump-national-security-agency-mike-johnson-foreigners-fbi-cia-surveillance-law).

The pattern of last-minute legislative action is a recurring trend. In January 2018, for instance, when the FISA program was due to expire on January 19, the Senate conducted a crucial procedural vote to advance an extension bill on January 16, only three days prior to the deadline [[^]](https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/16/politics/senate-fisa-bill). Similarly, during the December 2012 reauthorization, the Senate passed its bill on December 28, 2012, just three days before the December 31, 2012 expiration, even though the House had passed its version earlier [[^]](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-112hrpt645/html/CRPT-112hrpt645-pt2.htm). These examples underscore a consistent practice where reauthorization bills are typically brought to the floor within the final two weeks, or even days, of their statutory deadline, thereby increasing the likelihood of short-term "clean" extensions to prevent program lapses [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/house-passes-10-day-fisa-section-702-extension-in-late-night-vote-congress-senate-republicans-democrats-capitol-hill-president-donald-trump-national-security-agency-mike-johnson-foreigners-fbi-cia-surveillance-law).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 01, 2028
- **Closes:** January 01, 2028

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.