# How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during his show?

Lawrence O'Donnell - next The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell

Updated: April 22, 2026

Category: Mentions

Tags: Politicians

HTML: /markets/mentions/politicians/how-many-times-will-lawrence-o-donnell-say-trump-during-his-show/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Lawrence O'Donnell to say "Trump" 35+ times during his next show, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions "Trump" frequently on his show.** He averages 22 "Trump" mentions when legal analysts are guests.
   Current news headlines and scheduled events ensure "Trump's" ongoing relevance.
   Two distinct "Trump"-related headlines emerged from newswires today.
*   Donald Trump has a public Bible-reading event scheduled for today.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** and **market** agree at 99c (**99%** **probability**), showing 1.0x payout with O'Donnell's frequent Trump mentions.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 105+ times | 1.0% | 0.9% | Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions Trump due to ongoing news and relevant scheduled events. |
| 90+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% | Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions Trump due to ongoing news and relevant scheduled events. |
| 95+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% | Lawrence O'Donnell consistently mentions Trump due to ongoing news and relevant scheduled events. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 105+ times | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 90+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 95+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 100+ times | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 80+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 65+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 85+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 50+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 35+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 40+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 75+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 45+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 55+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 70+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 60+ times | 99.0% | 99.0% |

- Expiration: April 25, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market's price action reflects a strong and unwavering consensus. The contract opened at a very high probability of 92% and trended consistently upward within a narrow band, reaching a current price of 99%. The initial high valuation indicates that traders entered the market with a strong presupposition that the "YES" outcome was the most probable. The subsequent price movement toward near-certainty suggests that any minor doubt was quickly erased as trading commenced.

The upward price trend was accompanied by significant volume, totaling over 15,000 contracts traded. A notable increase in trading activity occurred as the price climbed from 95% to 99%, which indicates strong conviction from buyers at these high probability levels. This volume pattern reinforces the validity of the price trend, showing that the move to 99% was not an anomaly but a well-supported consensus. In the absence of external news or context driving this shift, the price action appears to be a reflection of traders reinforcing a shared, pre-existing belief.

From a technical perspective, the market established a firm support level at its opening range of 91-92%, never trading below this floor. The 99% level has acted as a ceiling, where the price has since consolidated. Overall, the chart indicates a market with extremely low uncertainty. The sentiment is decisively bullish on the "YES" outcome, with traders pricing it as a near-foregone conclusion from the moment the market opened and solidifying that belief throughout the trading period.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: 45+ times

#### 📈 April 22, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 79.0% to 99.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: 40+ times

#### 📉 April 21, 2026: 76.0pp drop

Price decreased from 89.0% to 13.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Lawrence O'Donnell says "Trump" 95 or more times during the next live "The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell" show after April 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Resolution is primarily based on video of the broadcast, backed by transcripts, counting exact, plural, or possessive forms of "Trump," including promotional content but excluding advertisements. The market will close after the event occurs or by April 25, 2026, 10:00 AM EDT.

## Market Discussion

The market discussion indicates that Lawrence O'Donnell likely mentioned "Trump" between 95 and 99 times. While the market shows a 99% probability for 95+ mentions, several traders who bet on 100+ or 105+ mentions are realizing losses, with one user explicitly stating the count did not go over 100. This suggests a consensus that the "Yes" outcome for 95+ times was met, but the higher thresholds were not.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 100+ times | 0% | 1% | 1% | $35,466.63 | $26,845.79 |
| 105+ times | 0% | 1% | 1% | $261,255.85 | $260,289.3 |
| 35+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $15,868.63 | $15,285.59 |
| 40+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $14,185.72 | $13,476.77 |
| 45+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $8,394.92 | $7,648.42 |
| 50+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $17,856.61 | $17,431.17 |
| 55+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $8,301.5 | $5,255.63 |
| 60+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $6,886.87 | $5,849.43 |
| 65+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $25,562.84 | $20,499.97 |
| 70+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $7,682.59 | $6,363.01 |
| 75+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $10,633.81 | $7,287.33 |
| 80+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $28,034.1 | $24,753.28 |
| 85+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $21,596.68 | $16,500.46 |
| 90+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $118,069.09 | $110,007.81 |
| 95+ times | 99% | 100% | 99% | $111,553.49 | $96,079.61 |

## What Trump-Related Headlines Emerged and Their Publication Times?

AP News Headline | Trump's approval on economy falls, new poll shows (AP) [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/trump-approval-iran-economy-cost-of-living-poll-fff492898cc8ff34e11df90ec4837a79) |
Reuters News Headline | Trump says he has no plans to fire Fed's Powell; market jumps (Reuters) [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-no-plans-fire-fed-chair-powell-wants-lower-rates-2025-04-22/) |
Article Publication Times | Not provided (available sources) [[^]](https://apnews.com/hub/donald-trump) |

**Two distinct Trump-related headlines were identified from the Associated Press and Reuters newswires**

Two distinct Trump-related headlines were identified from the Associated Press and Reuters newswires. From the Associated Press, a headline reported, "Trump's approval on economy falls, new poll shows" [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/trump-approval-iran-economy-cost-of-living-poll-fff492898cc8ff34e11df90ec4837a79). Concurrently, Reuters published a headline stating, "Trump says he has no plans to fire Fed's Powell; **market** jumps" [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-no-plans-fire-fed-chair-powell-wants-lower-rates-2025-04-22/). Only two specific headlines were found in the available sources, rather than the requested three.

Publication times unavailable, preventing specific analysis. The provided information does not include precise publication times for these articles, only dates in some of the URLs, such as "2025-04-22" for the Reuters article [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-no-plans-fire-fed-chair-powell-wants-lower-rates-2025-04-22/). Without specific timestamps, it is not possible to determine if these stories broke after 3 PM ET or within the specific 6-hour window leading up to the broadcast.

## What Is Lawrence O'Donnell's 'Trump' Mention Count With Legal Analysts?

Average Trump mentions (Legal Analysts) | 22 per episode (May 17, 2022 [[^]](https://www.ms.now/transcript/transcript-last-word-lawrence-o-donnell-5-17-22-n1295595), April 29, 2022 [[^]](https://www.ms.now/transcript/transcript-last-word-lawrence-o-donnell-4-29-22-n1295056)) |
May 17, 2022 Episode Trump Mentions | 21 (Neal Katyal, Elie Honig, Joyce Vance guests) [[^]](https://www.ms.now/transcript/transcript-last-word-lawrence-o-donnell-5-17-22-n1295595) |
April 29, 2022 Episode Trump Mentions | 23 (Neal Katyal, Joyce Vance, Andrew Weissmann guests) [[^]](https://www.ms.now/transcript/transcript-last-word-lawrence-o-donnell-4-29-22-n1295056) |

**Lawrence O'Donnell mentions 'Trump' an average of 22 times with legal guests**

Lawrence O'Donnell mentions 'Trump' an average of 22 times with legal guests. This average is derived from an analysis of two recent episodes. In the May 17, 2022, episode, where legal analysts Neal Katyal, Elie Honig, and Joyce Vance were primary guests, 'Trump' or 'Donald Trump' was mentioned 21 times [[^]](https://www.ms.now/transcript/transcript-last-word-lawrence-o-donnell-5-17-22-n1295595). Similarly, the April 29, 2022, episode, which featured Neal Katyal, Joyce Vance, and Andrew Weissmann, recorded 23 mentions of 'Trump' or 'Donald Trump' [[^]](https://www.ms.now/transcript/transcript-last-word-lawrence-o-donnell-4-29-22-n1295056).

Insufficient data prevents analysis for other guest types or tonight's show. Due to the limited scope of the available research, it is not possible to determine Lawrence O'Donnell's average 'Trump' mention count per segment when his primary guest is a current/former politician or a print journalist, as no transcripts or summaries for such episodes were provided [[^]](https://www.ms.now/transcript/transcript-last-word-lawrence-o-donnell-5-17-22-n1295595). Furthermore, the provided sources do not include any information regarding the announced guests for tonight's show [[^]](https://www.ms.now/transcript/transcript-last-word-lawrence-o-donnell-5-17-22-n1295595).

## Can Trump Mentions Trend Be Calculated for O'Donnell, Maddow, Hayes?

Trend Analysis Data Availability | Not available for 'Trump' mentions week-over-week [[^]](https://podscan.fm/podcasts/the-last-word-with-lawrence-odonnell/episodes/lawrence-trump-is-doing-a-very-good-job-of-sounding-like-the-surrendering-loser-of-his-own-war) |
Lawrence O'Donnell Trump Coverage | Examples include 'Trump is doing a very good job...' and 'Trump's profane and perverse Iran social' [[^]](https://podscan.fm/podcasts/the-last-word-with-lawrence-odonnell/episodes/lawrence-trump-is-doing-a-very-good-job-of-sounding-like-the-surrendering-loser-of-his-own-war) |
Rachel Maddow Trump Coverage | Examples include 'Rachel Maddow warns U.S. is ‘breaking’...' and 'Donald Trump's increasingly wild and desperate behavior' [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/rachel-maddow-warns-u-breaking-224501250.html) |

**Specific quantitative data for 'Trump' mentions is unavailable for analysis**

Specific quantitative data for 'Trump' mentions is unavailable for analysis. The research was unable to provide the precise quantitative data necessary to calculate week-over-week trends in 'Trump' mentions for Lawrence O'Donnell, Rachel Maddow, and Chris Hayes across their past four broadcasts. The exact mention counts per broadcast, which are required for a statistical trend analysis and to determine percentage changes, were not available in the examined sources.

'Trump' is a confirmed prominent topic for all three hosts. Despite the absence of specific numerical data for mention counts, available sources consistently indicate that 'Trump' is a significant subject in content from Lawrence O'Donnell, Rachel Maddow, and Chris Hayes. For instance, Lawrence O'Donnell's episodes include titles such as 'Trump is doing a very good job of sounding like the surrendering loser of his own war' and 'Trump's profane and perverse Iran social' [[^]](https://podscan.fm/podcasts/the-last-word-with-lawrence-odonnell/episodes/lawrence-trump-is-doing-a-very-good-job-of-sounding-like-the-surrendering-loser-of-his-own-war). Rachel Maddow's content features headlines like 'Rachel Maddow warns U.S. is ‘breaking’ as Trump escalates Iran war' and discusses 'Donald Trump's increasingly wild and desperate behavior' [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/rachel-maddow-warns-u-breaking-224501250.html). Similarly, Chris Hayes has addressed the topic, stating, 'Trump pushed us into the ‘worst possible sustainable equilibrium’' [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wrcur8Wv1EE). Without a detailed breakdown of the exact number of 'Trump' mentions in each specific broadcast over a series of four shows, it is impossible to calculate the requested week-over-week percentage changes or conduct a comparative trend analysis.

## Can Chris Hayes' Lead Story Predict Lawrence O'Donnell's Trump Mentions?

Lead Story Data Required | Topics for 'All In with Chris Hayes' (20 episodes) [[^]](https://www.ms.now/all) |
Trump Mention Data Required | Counts for 'The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell' (20 episodes) [[^]](https://www.episodate.com/tv-show/the-last-word-with-lawrence-o-donnell?season=2026) |
Correlation Analysis Result | Cannot be determined without specific data [[^]](https://www.episodate.com/tv-show/the-last-word-with-lawrence-o-donnell?season=2026). |

**Correlation between MSNBC shows regarding Trump mentions could not be determined**

Correlation between MSNBC shows regarding Trump mentions could not be determined. It was not possible to ascertain if there is a statistically significant positive or negative correlation between the lead story of 'All In with Chris Hayes' and Lawrence O'Donnell's subsequent 'Trump' mention count, based on the last 20 episodes. This limitation arose because the available research sources did not contain the specific data required for such an analysis [[^]](https://www.ms.now/all).

Specific data on show content and mention counts was absent. To perform the requested correlation, the research would necessitate the lead story topic for each of the last 20 episodes of 'All In with Chris Hayes' [[^]](https://www.ms.now/all), alongside the exact 'Trump' mention count for each corresponding episode of 'The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell' [[^]](https://www.episodate.com/tv-show/the-last-word-with-lawrence-o-donnell?season=2026). While general details about the shows, their schedules [[^]](http://msnbc.com/schedule/), and episode listings [[^]](https://www.tvmaze.com/shows/9312/the-last-word-with-lawrence-odonnell/episodes) were located, in addition to information on a prediction **market** related to 'Trump' mentions [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlastwordcount/last-word-trump-count/kxlastwordcount-lawr26mar20), these resources did not provide the detailed content analysis or mention counts essential for calculating the correlation. Therefore, without these specific data points, a conclusive answer regarding their correlation cannot be provided.

## What are Donald Trump's April 22, 2026, afternoon events?

Primary Public Event | Bible-reading event with supporters (April 22, 2026 [[^]](https://trumpgov.ai/event/category/next-events/day/2026-04-22/)) |
Event Start Time | 2:00 PM ET (April 22, 2026 [[^]](https://trumpgov.ai/event/category/next-events/day/2026-04-22/)) |
Court Rulings/Filings | None scheduled to conclude after 12 PM ET (April 22, 2026 [[^]](https://www.justsecurity.org/88039/trumps-legal-and-political-calendar-all-the-dates-you-need-to-know/)) |

**Donald Trump has one public event scheduled after 12 PM ET**

Donald Trump has one public event scheduled after 12 PM ET. On April 22, 2026, he is slated to participate in a "Bible-reading event with supporters" starting at 2:00 PM ET [[^]](https://trumpgov.ai/event/category/next-events/day/2026-04-22/). This campaign event, taking place in the afternoon, is expected to conclude later in the day, ensuring any related news or developments would be released after the 12 PM ET cutoff.

No court filings or judicial rulings are scheduled for April 22, 2026. A review of available legal calendars and litigation trackers indicates no specific court hearings, filing deadlines, or judicial rulings for this date that would conclude or have news released after 12 PM ET [[^]](https://www.justsecurity.org/88039/trumps-legal-and-political-calendar-all-the-dates-you-need-to-know/). While ongoing cases involving Donald Trump remain active, including "State of New York v. Donald J. Trump" [[^]](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69623558/state-of-new-york-v-donald-j-trump/?entry_gte=140) and "TRUMP et al v. Internal Revenue Service et al" [[^]](https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/62859494/TRUMP_et_al_v_Internal_Revenue_Service_et_al), no specific future judicial actions or filing events are highlighted for this precise date and time window within the provided sources.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 25, 2026
- **Closes:** April 25, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-95: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-90: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-85: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-80: NO (Apr 16, 2026)
- KXLASTWORDCOUNT-LAWR26APR15-75: YES (Apr 16, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.