# What will Robinhood say during their next earnings call?

On Apr 28, 2026

Updated: April 28, 2026

Category: Mentions

Tags: Earnings

HTML: /markets/mentions/earnings/what-will-robinhood-say-during-their-next-earnings-call/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect International to be mentioned during Robinhood's next earnings call, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Digital ad spend for new Robinhood products remains unquantified by third parties.** - Robinhood recently hired two senior professionals with explicit crypto expertise.
- Robinhood is actively discussing Indonesian **market** expansion with regulators.
- Q4 2025 earnings call responses on growth and competition were vague.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market**'s **57%** is 11.7pp higher than **model**'s **45.3%**, implying 1.8x payout given crypto hires and Indonesia talks.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Trump | 90.0% | 86.8% | The recent IPO of Truth Social and its high market volatility could prompt discussion. |
| Tokenization | 95.0% | 93.4% | Robinhood has been expanding its crypto offerings and discussing potential innovations in digital assets. |
| Bitcoin | 38.0% | 25.0% | Bitcoin's price movements and recent ETF approvals often influence discussions in the crypto trading space. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Trump | 90.0% | 86.8% |
| Tokenization | 95.0% | 93.4% |
| Bitcoin | 38.0% | 25.0% |
| Blockchain | 62.0% | 51.2% |
| Perp / Perpetual | 57.0% | 45.3% |
| Kalshi | 29.0% | 17.0% |
| Indonesia | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Social | 93.0% | 90.8% |
| Retirement | 94.0% | 92.1% |
| SIG / Susquehanna | 45.0% | 32.0% |
| International | 96.0% | 94.7% |
| Credit Card | 84.0% | 78.9% |
| Acquisition | 87.0% | 82.9% |

- Expiration: September 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the chart data, this market has been trading in a relatively narrow, sideways range. The price has fluctuated between a low of 55.0% and a high of 67.0% throughout its history. It opened at 57.0% and is currently trading at the same level, indicating a lack of a sustained directional trend. The market appears to have established a support level around 55.0% and a resistance level at 67.0%. The fluctuations within this range have not been tied to any specific news or developments provided in the context, suggesting the price action is driven by internal trading dynamics rather than external catalysts.

The total trading volume of 1,311 contracts is moderate. The sample data shows periods of zero volume followed by a significant increase to over 140 contracts on the most recent day. This recent uptick in activity, occurring as the price holds near the 57% level, suggests an increase in trader engagement. However, since this volume spike did not cause a significant price move or a breakout from the established range, it indicates that buying and selling pressures are relatively balanced, reinforcing the market's current state of equilibrium rather than strong conviction in a new direction.

Overall, market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic but indecisive. The consistent trading above the 50% mark, currently at 57.0%, implies that participants believe a "YES" outcome is more likely than not. However, the failure to break above the 67.0% resistance level and the persistent sideways movement suggest a lack of a strong catalyst to push conviction higher. The market seems to be in a holding pattern, reflecting a stable consensus that awaits new information.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Indonesia

#### 📉 April 26, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 31.0% to 21.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 25, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 20.0% to 31.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Kalshi

#### 📈 April 20, 2026: 16.0pp spike

Price increased from 22.0% to 38.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if "SIG / Susquehanna" (including plural or possessive forms) is spoken by any Robinhood Markets, Inc. representative or call operator during their next earnings call, including the Q&A segment. It resolves to "No" if the phrase is not mentioned.

Resolution is primarily based on video of the earnings call, with transcripts as a backup, and verified from Robinhood. The market opened on April 17, 2026, and will close shortly after the Robinhood earnings call on April 28, 2026, or by September 30, 2026, if the event does not occur, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Acquisition | 83% | 87% | 87% | $79.05 | $73.73 |
| Bitcoin | 41% | 43% | 38% | $2,342.42 | $1,844.83 |
| Blockchain | 57% | 60% | 62% | $1,529.82 | $1,323.64 |
| Credit Card | 84% | 86% | 84% | $125.41 | $119.41 |
| Indonesia | 13% | 15% | 15% | $1,148.3 | $1,120.43 |
| International | 93% | 96% | 96% | $372.26 | $345.44 |
| Kalshi | 28% | 29% | 29% | $1,338.59 | $1,050.12 |
| Perp / Perpetual | 57% | 58% | 57% | $1,511.01 | $1,296.12 |
| Retirement | 95% | 98% | 94% | $811.57 | $811.57 |
| SIG / Susquehanna | 45% | 49% | 45% | $744.09 | $452.08 |
| Social | 94% | 97% | 93% | $1,054.02 | $1,028.02 |
| Tokenization | 95% | 96% | 95% | $2,430.24 | $2,260.91 |
| Trump | 81% | 91% | 90% | $6,623.68 | $4,390.21 |

## Has Robinhood's Q1 2026 Ad Spend Shifted to Gold Card, IRA Match?

Robinhood Gold Card Launch | March 2024 [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/the-new-gold-standard-introducing-the-robinhood-gold-card/) |
IRA Match for Gold Members | Up to 3% on annual contributions [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/select/robinhood-retirement/) |
Q1 2026 Digital Ad Spend Data | Not available from third-party tracking services [[^]](https://sensortower.com/report/q3-2025-market-index) |

**Robinhood's specific digital ad spend for new products remains unquantified**

Robinhood's specific digital ad spend for new products remains unquantified. Data from third-party tracking services like Sensor Tower or Pathmatics regarding Robinhood's digital advertising spend and creative mix for the 'Gold Card' and 'Retirement IRA Match' products in Q1 2026 are not available [[^]](https://sensortower.com/report/q3-2025-**market**-index). Despite this information gap, the research confirms Robinhood's active promotion of both offerings, indicating a clear strategic focus on these newer products.

The Robinhood Gold Card, launched in 2024, targets premium users. This card was introduced in March 2024, designed to offer benefits such as **3%** cash back on all eligible purchases, primarily aimed at Robinhood Gold subscribers [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/the-new-gold-standard-introducing-the-robinhood-gold-card/). Its launch was notably accompanied by a dedicated 'Gold Campaign,' which suggests a substantial investment in creative and promotional efforts to drive adoption of the new card [[^]](https://www.robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/the-making-of-robinhoods-gold-campaign).

Robinhood's IRA Match program emphasizes retirement savings growth. The 'Retirement IRA Match' program has also been a significant focus, providing up to a **3%** match on annual contributions for Robinhood Gold members and a **1%** match for other users, in addition to transfer bonuses [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/select/robinhood-retirement/). While the existence and details of these programs highlight a strategic intent to boost their usage, the absence of specific Q1 2026 ad spend data from third-party tracking services means it is not possible to quantify the exact shift in digital advertising resources towards these products compared to core stock and crypto trading offerings [[^]](https://sensortower.com/report/q3-2025-**market**-index).

## What Expertise Do Robinhood's New Hires Bring?

Gaëtan Thabot Role | Global Head of Business Development for Institutional Crypto (February 2024) [[^]](https://www.thetradenews.com/robinhood-appoints-global-head-of-business-development-for-institutional-crypto/) |
Zeke Vince Role | Head of Product, Blockchain (October 2023) [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/zeke-vince-a458a64) |
Conference Appearances | Not indicated at recent industry conferences (according to provided sources) [[^]](https://www.thetradenews.com/robinhood-appoints-global-head-of-business-development-for-institutional-crypto/) |

**Robinhood has recently hired two senior-level professionals with explicit experience in key crypto areas within the last 180 days**

Robinhood has recently hired two senior-level professionals with explicit experience in key crypto areas within the last 180 days. Gaëtan Thabot was appointed Global Head of Business Development for Institutional Crypto in February 2024 [[^]](https://www.thetradenews.com/robinhood-appoints-global-head-of-business-development-for-institutional-crypto/). His prior experience includes roles at WalletConnect, a platform facilitating dApp connections to wallets [If you’re building stablecoin payments today, you’re facing a choice:

👎 Rebuild the same payment flows over and over -- for every wallet, for every geography… | Gaëtan Thabot">[^]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gaetanthabot_walletconnect-pay-live-if-youre-building-activity-7392667625467850752-NeDG), and published discussions on "onchain finance" [[^]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gaetanthabot_reown-the-onchain-ux-platform-reown-activity-7305643093498757120-Dm4H) and the "tokenization of RWAs" [[^]](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gaetanthabot_heard-today-from-a-large-us-bank-there-activity-7331044122327199744-LWxm), directly demonstrating expertise in self-custody wallets and tokenization.

Zeke Vince brings extensive product leadership in blockchain and DeFi to Robinhood. Vince joined the company in October 2023 as Head of Product, Blockchain [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/zeke-vince-a458a64). His background includes serving as VP, Product at Dharma, a platform centered on self-custody wallets and DeFi [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/zeke-vince-a458a64). Additionally, he held senior product roles at OpenSea (Head of Product, DeFi) and Paxos (Head of Product, Institutional Products), indicating a strong foundation in blockchain, decentralized finance, and institutional crypto products, which would encompass areas such as tokenization and potentially layer-2 scaling concepts [[^]](https://linkedin.com/in/zeke-vince-a458a64).

Neither new hire has appeared on recent industry conference panels. Based on the available sources, there is no indication that Gaëtan Thabot or Zeke Vince have appeared on panels at recent industry conferences like Consensus or Permissionless.

## What are Robinhood's Q4 2025 Order Flow Disclosures for Susquehanna?

Latest PFOF Disclosure Period | Q4 2025 (October, November, December 2025) [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000007/a287900_606xnmsx2025xq4x.htm) |
Disclosure Regulation | Rule 606 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000007/a287900_606xnmsx2025xq4x.htm) |
Covered Instrument Types | NMS stocks (equities) and listed options [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000007/a287900_606xnmsx2025xq4x.htm) |

**Robinhood's most recent payment-for-order-flow (PFOF) routing disclosures pertain to Q4 2025**

Robinhood's most recent payment-for-order-flow (PFOF) routing disclosures pertain to Q4 2025. These reports, published under Rule 606, cover October, November, and December, detailing how Robinhood routes customer orders for National **Market** System (NMS) stocks, including equities and listed options, to various **market** makers [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000007/a287900_606xnmsx2025xq4x.htm). To assess any material changes or deviations from historical averages in the percentage of options or equity flow directed to Susquehanna (SIG), direct inspection of the detailed tables within these Q4 2025 SEC filings is required [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000007/a287900_606xnmsx2025xq4x.htm).

The Q4 2025 Rule 606 reports itemize Susquehanna's specific order flow percentages. These documents detail the volume and percentages of non-directed orders routed to each **market** maker, including Susquehanna, for both equity and options trades [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000007/a287900_606xnmsx2025xq4x.htm). To determine if a material change or deviation from historical averages has occurred, these Q4 2025 figures for Susquehanna's share of order flow must be directly compared against Robinhood's Rule 606 reports from previous quarters, which are typically accessible through similar SEC filings or public archives [[^]](https://public.s3.com/rule606/hood/). While Robinhood offers general transparency regarding its order routing practices on its support pages [[^]](https://robinhood.com/support/articles/stock-order-routing/), the precise numerical percentages for Susquehanna's order flow in Q4 2025 and a comparative assessment against historical averages are exclusively detailed within the aforementioned official quarterly disclosures [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387926000007/a287900_606xnmsx2025xq4x.htm). Without direct access to the full content of these specific documents for numerical extraction and historical comparison, a definitive statement on specific percentage changes or deviations cannot be made based solely on the provided source titles.

## What are Robinhood's Recent Global Expansion Regulatory Developments?

Indonesia (OJK) Discussions | February 2024 [[^]](https://katadata.co.id/amp/finansial/bursa/69907fa47c31f/bertemu-ojk-robinhood-perjelas-rencana-ekspansi-di-pasar-modal-indonesia) |
UK FCA Authorization | August 2023 [[^]](https://www.robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/fca-authorizes-robinhood-to-operate-in-the-u-k) |
EU Investment Firm License | May 2023 [[^]](https://ellex.legal/ellex-europe-robinhood/) |

**Robinhood is actively discussing Indonesian market expansion with the OJK**

Robinhood is actively discussing Indonesian **market** expansion with the OJK. Within the last six months (approximately November 2023 to May 2024), Robinhood has engaged in active discussions with the Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK) concerning its plans to expand into the Indonesian **market**. Meetings took place in February 2024 where Robinhood clarified its intentions to launch services for both securities and cryptocurrency. The OJK has indicated its readiness to assist Robinhood in navigating the necessary licensing processes and regulatory requirements, which serve as a prerequisite for launching services in Indonesia [[^]](https://katadata.co.id/amp/finansial/bursa/69907fa47c31f/bertemu-ojk-robinhood-perjelas-rencana-ekspansi-di-pasar-modal-indonesia). While sources confirm ongoing engagement and OJK's commitment to assist with future permits, they do not explicitly state that Robinhood has formally filed an application or a memorandum of understanding with the OJK within this specific timeframe.

No new regulatory filings for UK or EU within six months. Conversely, there is no evidence of new regulatory applications, memoranda of understanding, or public consultations filed by Robinhood as a prerequisite for launching services in the UK or any EU member state within the last six months. Robinhood received authorization from the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to operate in the U.K. in August 2023 [[^]](https://www.robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/fca-authorizes-robinhood-to-operate-in-the-u-k). Additionally, Robinhood established its European hub in Lithuania, obtaining an investment firm license from the Bank of Lithuania in May 2023 [[^]](https://ellex.legal/ellex-europe-robinhood/). These key authorizations, which were prerequisites for launching services in those regions, were secured prior to the six-month window specified in the question.

## How Did Robinhood Address Growth and Competition in Q4 2025?

J.P. Morgan Analyst Query | Bias towards user growth vs. monetization strategy for 2026-2027 (Response: "achieve both" without specific prioritization) [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript) |
Mizuho Analyst Query | Top three competitive factors (Response: Omitted "social investing platforms" as a specific threat) [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript) |
Management Response Clarity | Responses perceived as general or omitted specific details regarding strategic emphasis and competitive threats [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript) |

**During Robinhood's Q4 2025 earnings call, analysts from J.P**

During Robinhood's Q4 2025 earnings call, analysts from J.P. Morgan and Mizuho received vague responses regarding strategic direction. Questions concerning user growth, monetization, and competitive threats were met with general answers, providing limited insight into Robinhood's future priorities and perceived competitive landscape [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript). Kenneth Worthington of J.P. Morgan specifically inquired about Robinhood's product development "bias" for 2026 and 2027, asking whether the focus was more on attracting new customers or increasing monetization from existing users [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript). Robinhood's CEO, Vlad Tenev, stated the company aims to achieve both objectives simultaneously, citing IRAs, gold, and credit cards as initiatives designed for both customer acquisition and deeper engagement [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript). However, this response did not offer the specific prioritization or "bias" that the analyst sought [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript).

Mizuho's query about key competitive factors also received general answers. Dan Dolev from Mizuho asked about the "three biggest competitive factors" impacting Robinhood on the retail side over the next 12 to 24 months [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript). Tenev identified innovation, customer experience, and building a trusted brand as primary competitive elements, alongside broad mentions of traditional incumbents and other FinTech companies [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript). Notably, Robinhood's management did not specifically mention "social investing platforms" as one of their key competitive threats in their detailed reply, leaving this particular competitive aspect unaddressed [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4868445-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** September 30, 2026
- **Closes:** September 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.