# What will ON Semiconductor say during their next earnings call?

On May 4, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Mentions

Tags: Earnings

HTML: /markets/mentions/earnings/what-will-on-semiconductor-say-during-their-next-earnings-call/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect ON Semiconductor to discuss EV / Electric Vehicle during their next earnings call, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - ON Semi customer EV production volume decelerated in Q1 2026.** - Chinese silicon carbide competitors did not discuss aggressive **market** strategies.
- Germany's manufacturing new orders show accelerating contraction.
- Automotive leaders prioritize power efficiency for autonomous driving platforms.
- USTR launched new Section 301 investigations and revised export controls.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** and **market** probabilities align at **70%** (70c), reflecting a 1.4x payout multiple and decelerating EV production.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NIO | 64.0% | 49.6% | The provided background research details Q1 2026 production trends for several key ON Semiconductor customers but explicitly states that data for NIO's Q1 2026 deliveries is not available in the provided sources, making it less likely that NIO's specific Q1 performance would be a focal point for ON Semiconductor. |
| Tariff | 50.0% | 37.4% | The provided background research details Q1 2026 EV production trends for ON Semiconductor's customers, offering no specific information to either validate or contradict the market's expectation that tariffs will be mentioned during the earnings call. |
| Market Share | 70.0% | 70.0% | The significant and mixed Q1 2026 EV production trends among ON Semiconductor's key customers, including notable decelerations from Tesla and BYD and strong acceleration from Kia, directly impact ON Semi's automotive business and make a mention of these market conditions during their earnings call highly probable, pushing the probability higher than the debiased anchor. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NIO | 64.0% | 49.6% |
| Tariff | 50.0% | 37.4% |
| Market Share | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| EV / Electric Vehicle | 82.0% | 73.3% |
| Autonomous / Automation | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nvidia | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Headwind | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Backlog | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sineng Electric | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tailwind | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: September 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market shows a distinct upward trend in a short period. The price began at a 59.0% probability and experienced a significant, single-day spike of 11 percentage points to 70.0% between April 27 and April 28. Since this sharp increase, the price has remained stable at the 70.0% level. This level now appears to be a new point of consensus or potential resistance for the market.

The primary driver for the price jump is not apparent from the provided context, as no specific news or developments were available. Therefore, the movement seems to be based on an internal re-evaluation of the odds by traders rather than a reaction to an external catalyst. The trading volume for this market is notably low, with only 20 contracts traded in total. This thin volume suggests that the price movement was not driven by broad market participation and that conviction behind the current 70.0% price may be limited.

Overall, the chart reflects a rapid and significant shift in market sentiment towards a higher probability of the event occurring. The market is currently pricing in a 70% chance, indicating a strong positive expectation. However, the lack of significant trading volume suggests this sentiment, while strong in price terms, has not been heavily tested or confirmed by a wide range of market participants.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📉 April 28, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 90.0% to 82.0%

**Outcome:** EV / Electric Vehicle

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if "Backlog" (including plural/possessive forms) is spoken by any ON Semiconductor Corporation representative during their next earnings call (including Q&A); otherwise, it resolves to NO. The earnings call begins on May 4, 5:00 PM EDT. The market closes after the outcome occurs, with a projected payout 30 minutes later, but no later than September 30, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT. Resolution is primarily based on video of the earnings call, using transcripts as a secondary source if needed, and ignores grammatical/tense inflections beyond plural or possessive forms of the word.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Autonomous / Automation | 75% | 89% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Backlog | 41% | 56% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| EV / Electric Vehicle | 82% | 89% | 82% | $16 | $16 |
| Headwind | 61% | 78% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Market Share | 63% | 70% | 70% | $20 | $20 |
| NIO | 62% | 70% | 64% | $560.3 | $560.3 |
| Nvidia | 37% | 51% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sineng Electric | 39% | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Tailwind | 66% | 77% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Tariff | 38% | 51% | 50% | $50.56 | $50.56 |

## What Were Q1 2026 EV Production Trends for ON Semi's Customers?

Tesla Q1 2026 Deliveries | 386,810 vehicles [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/tesla-tsla-q1-2026-vehicle-delivery-production.html) |
BYD Q1 2026 Passenger EV Sales | 300,114 vehicles [[^]](https://finance.biggo.com/news/jR-5SJ0ByH9TLH69QSVF) |
Kia Q1 2026 EV Sales Growth | 54% surge [[^]](https://electrek.co/2026/04/24/kias-ev-sales-surge-54-in-q1-with-a-full-lineup-of-sedans-to-vans/) |

**Aggregate electric vehicle (EV) production volume among ON Semiconductor's key customers generally decelerated in Q1 2026**

Aggregate electric vehicle (EV) production volume among ON Semiconductor's key customers generally decelerated in Q1 2026. This trend was primarily influenced by significant declines from major volume producers compared to the prior quarter and analyst expectations. Tesla reported Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 386,810, falling below analyst expectations and representing a notable decrease from 494,989 vehicles delivered in Q4 2025 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/tesla-tsla-q1-2026-vehicle-delivery-production.html). Similarly, BYD experienced a sharp drop in Q1 2026, selling 300,114 passenger vehicles, down from 526,409 in Q4 2025 [[^]](https://finance.biggo.com/news/jR-5SJ0ByH9TLH69QSVF).

In contrast, Kia's EV sales surged, while other customer data was limited. Kia's EV sales increased by **54%** in Q1 2026, driven by its diverse lineup of electric sedans and vans, showcasing strong acceleration [[^]](https://electrek.co/2026/04/24/kias-ev-sales-surge-54-in-q1-with-a-full-lineup-of-sedans-to-vans/). Hyundai Motor also announced its Q1 2026 business results, which included EV sales, but specific pure EV volume comparisons to the prior quarter or analyst expectations were not detailed [[^]](https://www.hyundai.com/worldwide/en/newsroom/detail/hyundai-motor-announces-2026-q1-business-results-0000001162). For NIO, Q1 2026 delivery or production figures were unavailable, with sources providing updates only through December, Q4, and the full year 2025 [[^]](https://ir.nio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/nio-inc-provides-december-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025).

Considering the substantial declines from Tesla and BYD, the overall trend points to a significant slowdown. Despite the strong growth observed from Kia, the aggregate electric vehicle production volume for ON Semiconductor's key automotive customers shows an overall deceleration in Q1 2026 compared to the prior quarter and analyst consensus expectations. The absence of Q1 2026 data for NIO prevents a complete aggregate assessment but does not alter the observed trend from the largest contributors.

## Did Sineng Electric or Sanan Opto Discuss Pricing, Share, Inventory?

Sanan Optoelectronics Q1 2026 Net Profit Change | -68.2% year-over-year (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/sanan-optoelectronics-q1-net-profit-down-68-2-y-y-ce7f59dfdd8df223) |
Sanan Optoelectronics Profit Decline Reason | Changes in tax policy and business mix [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/urn:summary_document_report:quartr.com:3259269:0-sanan-optoelectronics-revenue-and-profit-declined-sharply-year-over-year-mainly-due-to-tax-policy-and-business-mix-changes/) |
Sineng Electric Market Focus | Showcasing PV+ESS solutions [[^]](https://en.si-neng.com/about/news/105) |

**Chinese silicon carbide competitors did not explicitly mention aggressive market strategies**

Chinese silicon carbide competitors did not explicitly mention aggressive **market** strategies. Neither Sineng Electric nor Sanan Optoelectronics explicitly discussed aggressive pricing strategies, **market** share gains, or inventory oversupply in the automotive and solar inverter markets in their most recent financial disclosures or investor presentations. Sanan Optoelectronics reported a substantial financial downturn, with its net profit for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, decreasing by **68.2%** year-over-year [[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/sanan-optoelectronics-q1-net-profit-down-68-2-y-y-ce7f59dfdd8df223). This decline in revenue and profit was mainly attributed to changes in tax policy and business mix [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/news/urn:summary_document_report:quartr.com:3259269:0-sanan-optoelectronics-revenue-and-profit-declined-sharply-year-over-year-mainly-due-to-tax-policy-and-business-mix-changes/). Despite the company's activity in the photovoltaic inverter **market** [[^]](https://www.sanan-semiconductor.com/en/pv), its financial reports and news summaries did not detail specific **market** strategies, such as aggressive pricing, or discussions of **market** share shifts or inventory levels within the automotive or solar inverter sectors.

Sineng Electric's disclosures highlight product presence, not pricing or inventory. The information available for Sineng Electric largely consists of news releases regarding its participation in industry events and showcasing PV+ESS solutions, such as Intersolar Europe 2025 and RE+ 2025 [[^]](https://en.si-neng.com/about/news/105). These sources emphasize its product offerings and presence in the new energy **market** but do not include explicit statements from financial disclosures or investor presentations about aggressive pricing, **market** share gains, or inventory oversupply in the automotive or solar inverter markets.

## What are the Manufacturing PMI New Orders trends for ON Semiconductor's key markets?

Germany PMI New Orders (April 2024) | 42.6 [[^]](https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/444f6be3f701474398dfab659db4eda1) |
US PMI New Orders (April 2024) | 49.2 [[^]](https://sw.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-new-orders) |
China PMI New Orders (March 2024) | 53.0 [[^]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/purchasing-managers-index-manufacturing/pmi-new-orders) |

**Manufacturing PMI 'New Orders' show divergent trends across key markets**

Manufacturing PMI 'New Orders' show divergent trends across key markets. Germany has experienced accelerating contraction in its S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 'New Orders' sub-index, registering 42.6 in April 2024. This follows a decline from 44.5 in March and 46.1 in February [[^]](https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/444f6be3f701474398dfab659db4eda1). The United States exhibited a mixed trend, with its sub-index at 49.2 in April 2024, following an expansion to 51.4 in March and a prior contraction to 49.2 in February [[^]](https://sw.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-new-orders). In contrast, China demonstrated sustained expansion, with its Caixin Manufacturing PMI 'New Orders' sub-index rising for a sixth consecutive month in April and reaching 53.0 in March, which marked the quickest rate of new order growth since May 2021 [[^]](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/purchasing-managers-index-manufacturing/pmi-new-orders).

Correlation with management's 'Backlog' and 'Headwind' terms is unavailable. The provided web research does not contain information on the historical correlation between the Manufacturing PMI 'New Orders' sub-index and ON Semiconductor management's use of 'Backlog' and 'Headwind' in earnings calls. The available sources are exclusively focused on economic indicators for the specified countries and do not include ON Semiconductor's earnings call transcripts or analyses of management commentary to establish such a relationship [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-pmi).

## How Do Automotive Leaders Prioritize Power Efficiency for Autonomous Driving?

Nvidia Rubin Platform | Emphasizes extraordinary performance and power efficiency [[^]](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2026-ces-special-presentation) |
Mobileye Challenges | Scaling autonomous driving requires managing power envelope and thermal limits [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4858164-mobileye-global-inc-mbly-presents-at-ces-2026-transcript?sub1=news), [[^]](http://mobileye.com/blog/takeaways-from-the-mobileye-press-conference-with-ceo-prof-amnon-shashua-at-ces-2026/) |
Qualcomm Snapdragon | Notes superior performance-per-watt and power efficiency [[^]](https://s204.q4cdn.com/645488518/files/doc_events/2026/Feb/04/Q1FY26-Earnings-Call-Transcript_2-5-26_Final.pdf), [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/qualcomm-qcom-q1-2026-earnings-225851332.html) |

**Automotive leaders prioritize power efficiency for next-generation autonomous driving platforms**

Automotive leaders prioritize power efficiency for next-generation autonomous driving platforms. Although specific terms such as power management ICs (PMICs) and SiC modules are not frequently mentioned, the critical underlying technical requirements these components address are central to discussions. Nvidia, for instance, highlights the extraordinary performance and power efficiency of its new Rubin platform [[^]](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2026-ces-special-presentation), while Qualcomm similarly promotes the superior performance-per-watt of its Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions [[^]](https://s204.q4cdn.com/645488518/files/doc_events/2026/Feb/04/Q1FY26-Earnings-Call-Transcript_2-5-26_Final.pdf), [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/qualcomm-qcom-q1-2026-earnings-225851332.html). These companies consistently stress the imperative of managing power consumption for advanced autonomous driving systems.

Mobileye explicitly details critical power and thermal management challenges. At CES 2026, CEO Amnon Shashua explained that the power envelope and thermal limits present significant hurdles to scaling autonomous driving systems [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4858164-mobileye-global-inc-mbly-presents-at-ces-2026-transcript?sub1=news), [[^]](http://mobileye.com/blog/takeaways-from-the-mobileye-press-conference-with-ceo-prof-amnon-shashua-at-ces-2026/). He underscored the necessity for computational efficiency and effective management of the increased power demand arising from integrated sensor suites [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4858164-mobileye-global-inc-mbly-presents-at-ces-2026-transcript?sub1=news), [[^]](http://mobileye.com/blog/takeaways-from-the-mobileye-press-conference-with-ceo-prof-amnon-shashua-at-ces-2026/). This growing emphasis on power and thermal management as fundamental platform requirements implicitly drives the need for advanced power management solutions, including PMICs and SiC technologies capable of handling high voltages and high efficiency.

Industry innovations confirm demand for advanced power delivery technologies. External industry developments support this trend, even if direct partnership announcements from the core leaders are absent. For example, Navitas debuted an 800V GaN and SiC power delivery board at NVIDIA GTC 2026, a solution specifically optimized for electric vehicles and relevant to high-performance automotive platforms [[^]](https://navitassemi.com/navitas-debuts-revolutionary-800-v-6-v-power-delivery-board-at-nvidia-gtc-2026/). This demonstrates a clear industry focus on advanced power delivery, SiC, and GaN solutions to meet the demanding requirements for power and thermal management in next-generation autonomous vehicles.

## What Are Recent US-China Trade Actions and Responses?

USTR Section 301 Investigations | Initiated on March 11, 2026, targeting structural excess capacity [[^]](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/USTR%20301%20FRN%20Industrial%20Excess%20Capacity%203-11-26.pdf) |
US Advanced Semiconductor Restrictions | Revised export restrictions and additional tariffs introduced March 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/trade-rules-trump-administration-revises-export-restrictions-advanced--pracin-2026-03-13/) |
China's MOFCOM Response | Announced in April 2026, closely monitoring US legislation like the MATCH Act [[^]](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359756.shtml) |

**USTR initiated new Section 301 investigations and revised semiconductor export controls**

USTR initiated new Section 301 investigations and revised semiconductor export controls. Within 60 days preceding May 4, 2026, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) commenced new Section 301 investigations into structural excess capacity across various manufacturing sectors, formalized by a Federal Register Notice on March 11, 2026 [[^]](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/USTR%**20301%**20FRN%20Industrial%20Excess%20Capacity%203-11-26.pdf). These investigations specifically target the policies and practices of certain economies regarding industrial excess capacity, with public comments submitted to USTR until April 15, 2026 [[^]](https://itif.org/publications/2026/04/15/comments-to-ustr-regarding-section-301-investigations-of-structural-excess-capacity-and-production-in-manufacturing-sectors/). More pertinently for the semiconductor industry, on March 13, 2026, the U.S. government revised existing export restrictions on advanced semiconductors and introduced additional tariffs [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/trade-rules-trump-administration-revises-export-restrictions-advanced--pracin-2026-03-13/).

China's MOFCOM responded by monitoring U.S. legislation and its potential impact. In April 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) publicly stated its intention to 'closely follow the progress of relevant legislation' and 'carefully assess its impact' in response to these U.S. actions [[^]](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359756.shtml). MOFCOM's statement specifically highlighted the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs' passage of the 'MATCH Act and related bills,' indicating China's close observation of U.S. trade policies affecting its industries [[^]](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359756.shtml). This engagement occurs amidst broader U.S. efforts to restrict China's access to chip equipment, which China views as potentially disruptive to global supply chains [[^]](https://thenextweb.com/news/china-us-chip-export-controls-match-act).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** September 30, 2026
- **Closes:** September 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.