# What will Microsoft say during their next earnings call?

On Apr 29, 2026

Updated: April 28, 2026

Category: Mentions

Tags: Earnings

HTML: /markets/mentions/earnings/what-will-microsoft-say-during-their-next-earnings-call/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that OpenAI is most likely, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Analysts did not quantify Azure AI GPU investment impact on Q3 FY26 capex.** - Microsoft significantly expanded Anthropic's Claude **model** availability on Azure in Q1 FY26.
- CISA issued a high-severity cybersecurity alert for Microsoft Intune in Q1 2026.
- Microsoft integrated a new 'Phi' **model** version for on-device AI tasks in April.
- Research did not confirm an 8.0 percentage point price spike on April 24.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** (96c) prices higher than **94.7%** **model**, implying 1.0x payout despite expanded Claude availability on Azure.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| OpenAI | 97.0% | 96.6% | Financial analysis firms highlight Azure AI and capital expenditure as key discussion points for the earnings call, providing strong indirect support for an OpenAI mention, as OpenAI is central to Microsoft's Azure AI strategy. |
| Phi | 25.0% | 10.4% | The provided background research extensively covers Microsoft's Azure AI investments and capex as key discussion points for earnings, yet *never mentions 'Phi'*, strongly suggesting it will not be a public focus during the call, which conflicts with the market's implied probability. |
| Cybersecurity | 40.0% | 27.0% | The provided background research focuses entirely on Azure AI investments and capital expenditure, offering no specific evidence for or against a mention of Cybersecurity during the earnings call, thus remaining neutral to the debiased anchor. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| OpenAI | 97.0% | 96.6% |
| Phi | 25.0% | 10.4% |
| Cybersecurity | 40.0% | 27.0% |
| Frontier | 45.0% | 37.4% |
| Dynamics | 96.0% | 95.1% |
| Fairwater | 81.0% | 75.0% |
| Teams | 96.0% | 94.7% |
| LinkedIn | 96.0% | 94.7% |
| Gaming | 96.0% | 94.7% |
| Windows 11 | 89.0% | 85.5% |
| Anthropic | 77.0% | 69.9% |
| Nvidia | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: September 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has demonstrated a consistent upward trend, starting at a high probability of 85.0% and climbing to its current price of 96.0%. The most significant movement was an 8.0 percentage point spike on April 24, 2026, which saw the price jump from 85.0% to 93.0%. Since then, the price has continued to grind higher. The initial price of 85.0% acted as a strong support level before the breakout. The cause for the sharp increase on April 24 is not apparent from the available context.

Trading volume provides insight into market conviction. The total volume of 209 contracts, combined with increased activity during and after the price spike, suggests growing trader confidence in a 'YES' resolution. For instance, volume was zero on April 17 but rose to over 18 contracts around the time of the spike and has remained active since. This pattern indicates that the upward price movement is backed by increased market participation.

Overall, the price action reflects a market with strong and consolidating bullish sentiment. Traders began with a high degree of certainty (85.0%) that the event would occur, and that conviction has only strengthened over the period, pushing the probability to a new high of 96.0%. The market is pricing this outcome as a near certainty ahead of the April 29 resolution date.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: OpenAI

#### 📈 April 27, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 88.0% to 98.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Teams

#### 📈 April 24, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 85.0% to 93.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Cybersecurity

#### 📉 April 22, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 44.0% to 34.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 21, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 35.0% to 44.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 20, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 44.0% to 35.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if "Frontier," or its plural/possessive form, is spoken by any Microsoft Corporation representative during their earnings call on April 29, 2026, including the Q&A; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is primarily verified from video of the earnings call, with transcripts used if consensus cannot be reached, and is sourced from Microsoft's investor events page. The market opened on April 17, 2026, closes after the event occurs or by September 30, 2026, and payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Anthropic | 78% | 87% | 77% | $37.75 | $33.5 |
| Cybersecurity | 31% | 40% | 40% | $1,243.91 | $1,053.37 |
| Dynamics | 95% | 97% | 96% | $470.49 | $469.49 |
| Fairwater | 81% | 89% | 81% | $373.97 | $364.97 |
| Frontier | 44% | 45% | 45% | $1,012.34 | $840.35 |
| Gaming | 95% | 96% | 96% | $179.69 | $179.37 |
| LinkedIn | 95% | 96% | 96% | $209.47 | $209.47 |
| Nvidia | 75% | 88% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| OpenAI | 97% | 100% | 97% | $2,317.36 | $2,292.46 |
| Phi | 21% | 24% | 25% | $1,973.25 | $916.66 |
| Teams | 94% | 97% | 96% | $237.7 | $232.7 |
| Windows 11 | 86% | 90% | 89% | $65.29 | $60.29 |

## Will Microsoft's Azure AI Investments Influence Q3 FY26 Capex?

Synergy/Canalys Azure GPU Report | None identified directly quantifying significant shift in April 2026 pre-earnings context [[^]](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/neocloud-market-forecast-to-approach-400b-by-2031-driven-by-surging-ai-infrastructure-demand). |
Financial Analyst Focus | Azure AI and capital expenditure are key discussion points for Q3 FY26 earnings [[^]](https://negotiuminfinitum.com/en/articles/microsoft-q3-fy26-earnings-preview-azure-ai-capex-0427). |
Microsoft Nvidia GPU Slots | Over 30,000 secured for AI data center capacity expansion [[^]](https://finance.via.news/corporate-capital-deployment/microsoft-secures-30-000-nvidia-gpu-slots-as-big-tech-races-to-expand-ai-data). |

**Major cloud analysts did not quantify specific Azure GPU shifts**

Major cloud analysts did not quantify specific Azure GPU shifts.
Major cloud infrastructure analysts, such as Synergy Research Group, published reports in April 2026 that did not specifically quantify a significant shift in Azure's enterprise GPU capacity directly referencing new Nvidia hardware deployments in a pre-earnings context for Microsoft's Q3 FY26. Synergy's reports primarily focused on broader **market** trends, including the neocloud **market** approaching **$400** billion by 2031 driven by AI infrastructure demand [[^]](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/neocloud-**market**-forecast-to-approach-400b-by-2031-driven-by-surging-ai-infrastructure-demand), general cloud revenue growth jumping due to GenAI [[^]](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/genai-helps-drive-quarterly-cloud-revenues-to-119-billion-as-growth-rate-jumped-yet-again-in-q4), and AI helping cloud **market** growth rates reach almost **25%** in Q1 [[^]](https://www.srgresearch.com/articles/ai-helps-cloud-**market**-growth-rate-jump-back-to-almost-25-in-q1). These publications discussed the general impact of artificial intelligence on cloud spending but lacked specific, quantified data on Azure's GPU capacity shifts that would directly compel Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance.

Other financial analysts highlighted capital expenditure as a critical topic for Microsoft.
However, pre-earnings previews for Microsoft's Q3 FY26, published in April 2026 by other financial analysis firms, did highlight capital expenditure in relation to Azure and AI as a critical topic. For instance, Negotium Infinitum's preview discussed "The Balancing Act Between a **$40B** Azure AI Run-Rate and **$100B** CapEx," indicating that capital expenditure remains a significant focus for investors and analysts [[^]](https://negotiuminfinitum.com/en/articles/microsoft-q3-fy26-earnings-preview-azure-ai-capex-0427). Similarly, previews from Equity Capital **Market** and Tradingkey for Q3 FY26 earnings also emphasized Azure and AI, alongside capital expenditure, as key variables determining valuation and investor interest [[^]](https://ecmsource.com/microsoft-q3-fy2026-earnings-preview-azure-ai-2026/).

News reports confirm Microsoft's significant Nvidia GPU deployments for AI expansion.
Furthermore, several news outlets have reported on Microsoft's substantial investments in Nvidia hardware. These reports indicate that Microsoft has secured over 30,000 Nvidia GPU slots as part of a global effort to expand AI data center capacity [[^]](https://finance.via.news/corporate-capital-deployment/microsoft-secures-30-000-nvidia-gpu-slots-as-big-tech-races-to-expand-ai-data). Specific mention was made of Microsoft securing 30,000 GPUs for data center expansion in locations such as Norway [[^]](https://www.irecruit.co/insights/microsoft-secures-30000-gpus-norway-data-center-expansion). While these are news items and not pre-earnings reports from the initially specified analysts, they provide concrete evidence of Microsoft's new Nvidia hardware deployments, contributing to the broader discussion surrounding increased capital expenditure in AI infrastructure.

## What's Microsoft's Progress with Anthropic Claude on Azure?

Claude Opus 4.6 Availability | Became available in Microsoft Foundry on Azure (Jan 1 - Mar 31, 2026) [[^]](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/claude-opus-4-6-anthropics-powerful-model-for-coding-agents-and-enterprise-workflows-is-now-available-in-microsoft-foundry-on-azure/) |
Healthcare & Life Sciences Focus | Microsoft announced Claude advancements for these customers (January 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-cloud/blog/healthcare/2026/01/11/bridging-the-gap-between-ai-and-medicine-claude-in-microsoft-foundry-advances-capabilities-for-healthcare-and-life-sciences-customers/) |
Microsoft Foundry Updates | General updates signaling ongoing enhancements (February 2026) [[^]](http://devblogs.microsoft.com/foundry/whats-new-in-microsoft-foundry-feb-2026/) |

**In the first fiscal quarter of 2026 (January 1 to March 31), Microsoft significantly expanded Anthropic's Claude model availability on Azure**

In the first fiscal quarter of 2026 (January 1 to March 31), Microsoft significantly expanded Anthropic's Claude **model** availability on Azure. The company announced substantial advancements in making Anthropic's Claude models accessible on its Azure platform, specifically within Microsoft Foundry. A pivotal development was the release of Claude Opus 4.6, a robust **model** designed for coding, agents, and enterprise workflows, which became available in Microsoft Foundry on Azure [[^]](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/claude-opus-4-6-anthropics-powerful-**model**-for-coding-agents-and-enterprise-workflows-is-now-available-in-microsoft-foundry-on-azure/). This expansion underscores Microsoft's strategic initiatives to attract enterprise clients seeking advanced AI capabilities.

Microsoft demonstrated targeted enterprise adoption, particularly in healthcare and life sciences, during this period. On January 11, 2026, the company detailed how Claude in Microsoft Foundry was enhancing capabilities for healthcare and life sciences customers, showcasing a focused approach for enterprise adoption in critical areas [[^]](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-cloud/blog/healthcare/2026/01/11/bridging-the-gap-between-ai-and-medicine-claude-in-microsoft-foundry-advances-capabilities-for-healthcare-and-life-sciences-customers/). Additionally, general updates on 'What's new in Microsoft Foundry' were published in February 2026, indicating continuous improvements to the Azure AI platform [[^]](http://devblogs.microsoft.com/foundry/whats-new-in-microsoft-foundry-feb-2026/). While general reports mentioned 'Claude 5 Fortune 500 Adoption' in March 2026 [[^]](https://claude5.ai/news/claude-5-enterprise-adoption-fortune-500-2026), the provided sources do not explicitly confirm new Fortune 500 deployments exclusively on Microsoft Azure during this quarter.

## Why Did CISA Issue a High-Severity Alert for Microsoft Intune?

CISA Alert Date | March 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/alerts/2026/03/18/cisa-urges-endpoint-management-system-hardening-after-cyberattack-against-us-organization) |
Named Product | Microsoft Intune [[^]](https://windowsforum.com/threads/cisa-warns-intune-hardening-after-stryker-march-2026-disruption.405552/latest) |
Triggering Incident | Cyberattack on Stryker in March 2026 (attackers wiped devices) [[^]](https://windowsforum.com/threads/cisa-warns-intune-hardening-after-stryker-march-2026-disruption.405552/latest) |

**CISA issued a high-severity cybersecurity alert in Q1 2026**

CISA issued a high-severity cybersecurity alert in Q1 2026. On March 18, 2026, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a significant alert urging organizations to harden their endpoint management systems [[^]](https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/alerts/2026/03/18/cisa-urges-endpoint-management-system-hardening-after-cyberattack-against-us-organization). This directive followed a cyberattack against a U.S. organization, necessitating an urgent response related to cybersecurity practices [[^]](https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/alerts/2026/03/18/cisa-urges-endpoint-management-system-hardening-after-cyberattack-against-us-organization). The nature of the alert and the call for immediate action indicated a high-severity incident requiring a focused cybersecurity response.

Microsoft Intune was specifically targeted in CISA's urgent guidance. Multiple sources confirm this CISA alert specifically named Microsoft Intune as the enterprise product requiring enhanced security measures [[^]](https://windowsforum.com/threads/cisa-warns-intune-hardening-after-stryker-march-2026-disruption.405552/latest). This guidance was prompted by a disruption at Stryker in March 2026, where attackers reportedly leveraged endpoint management capabilities to wipe devices [[^]](https://windowsforum.com/threads/cisa-warns-intune-hardening-after-stryker-march-2026-disruption.405552/latest). CISA’s communication provided urgent hardening guidance, strongly urging organizations to secure their Microsoft Intune environments to mitigate risks and prevent similar incidents [[^]](https://news.windowsforum.com/article/cisa-issues-urgent-intune-hardening-guidance-after-stryker-attackers-wipe-devices-via-endpoint-manag.405820). The critical nature of this vulnerability, leading to device wiping and prompting a federal agency’s urgent directive, would indeed necessitate a "Cybersecurity" mention to reassure investors about proactive measures.

## What Were Key Microsoft Phi Silica AI Updates in April 2026?

Phi Silica AI component update | Version 1.2511.1196.0 released (Source: [[^]](https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/topic/kb5072641-phi-silica-ai-component-update-version-1-2511-1196-0-for-qualcomm-powered-systems-adaea373-5e49-4f6c-b1b3-74e2ae25712e)) |
Targeted hardware | Specifically for Qualcomm-powered systems (Source: [[^]](https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/topic/kb5072641-phi-silica-ai-component-update-version-1-2511-1196-0-for-qualcomm-powered-systems-adaea373-5e49-4f6c-b1b3-74e2ae25712e)) |
Functionality | Multimodal functionality for Phi Silica enabled (Source: [[^]](https://blogs.windows.com/windowsexperience/?p=179634)) |

**During April 2026, a new 'Phi' model version was integrated for on-device tasks**

During April 2026, a new 'Phi' **model** version was integrated for on-device tasks. Microsoft released an update for its 'Phi Silica' AI component, identified as version 1.2511.1196.0, specifically designed for Qualcomm-powered systems during this month [[^]](https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/topic/kb5072641-phi-silica-ai-component-update-version-1-2511-1196-0-for-qualcomm-powered-systems-adaea373-5e49-4f6c-b1b3-74e2ae25712e). This update signifies the integration of a newer version from the 'Phi' **model** family, intended for local processing capabilities on devices. Although specific release notes for developer/beta channels in April 2026 did not explicitly detail this component, its availability within this timeframe highlights its strategic importance within the Windows ecosystem [[^]](https://blogs.windows.com/windows-insider/2026/04/24/were-moving-to-experimental-and-beta-announcing-new-builds/).

This strategic product shift was further emphasized by expanded multimodal functionality. Multimodal capabilities for 'Phi Silica' were also enabled during the same period, enhancing the on-device AI component [[^]](https://blogs.windows.com/windowsexperience/?p=179634). This allows it to process and understand diverse data types beyond traditional text, crucial for advanced AI experiences directly on client devices. The focused development on specific hardware, such as Qualcomm-powered systems, combined with continuous advancements in on-device AI, suggests a concerted effort to improve local AI processing and potentially reduce dependence on cloud-based solutions for certain tasks, impacting Microsoft's overall product strategy.

## Was Microsoft's April 24 Price Spike Tied to Gaming/LinkedIn News?

Reported April 24 Stock Movement | up 2.1% (not 8.0pp) [[^]](https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/04/24/microsoft-nasdaqmsft-trading-2-1-higher-should-you-buy.html) |
Unattributed April 24 Price Spike | 8.0 percentage point (pp) price spike (no specific attribution in research) [[^]](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/23/prediction-microsofts-april-29-earnings-will-be-th/) |
Pre-Earnings Buyer Attraction (as of April 22) | "Agentic AI Strategy" and "cheap valuation" [[^]](https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/04/23/microsoft-msft-share-price-ends-april-22-at-425-69-as-agentic-ai-strategy-and-cheap-valuation-attract-pre-earnings-buyers/) |

**The research does not confirm an 8.0 percentage point (pp) price spike on April 24**

The research does not confirm an 8.0 percentage point (pp) price spike on April 24. There is no definitive attribution to a specific pre-briefing with a major financial news outlet or a top-tier analyst's channel check note highlighting unexpected strength in 'Gaming' or 'LinkedIn'. While Microsoft's stock was indeed trading higher on April 24, one source indicates it was up **2.1%** on that day, not 8.0pp [[^]](https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/04/24/microsoft-nasdaqmsft-trading-2-1-higher-should-you-buy.html).

**Market** sentiment leading up to the April 29 earnings call was generally positive. Reports from April 23 and 24 indicate anticipation for the upcoming earnings call, with pre-earnings buyers attracted by an 'Agentic AI Strategy' and a perceived 'cheap valuation' as of April 22 [[^]](https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/04/23/microsoft-msft-share-price-ends-april-22-at-425-69-as-agentic-ai-strategy-and-cheap-valuation-attract-pre-earnings-buyers/). Analysts, such as Jefferies, were also positioning for the Q3 preview, suggesting it was "time to reset the narrative" for Microsoft shares, though this did not specify a channel check highlighting 'Gaming' or 'LinkedIn' nor link it to an 8.0pp spike on April 24 [[^]](https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1091257/microsoft-q3-preview-jefferies-says-it-s-time-to-reset-the-narrative-1091257.html).

Upcoming earnings discussions highlighted Azure growth and AI capital expenditure. Several sources discussed the importance of the earnings call, with analysts noting that Azure growth and AI capital expenditure could be key drivers impacting the stock [[^]](https://baptistaresearch.com/microsoft-earnings-ai-capex-cloud-growth-preview/). Although there are references to Microsoft's gaming strategy in other reports [[^]](https://www.theverge.com/news/917689/microsoft-xbox-gaming-future-memo-asha-sharma-matt-booty), these discussions do not connect to a specific 8.0pp price spike on April 24 driven by pre-briefings or analyst notes about 'Gaming' or 'LinkedIn' performance being a lead item for the prepared remarks.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** September 30, 2026
- **Closes:** September 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.