# What will Meta say during their next earnings call?

On Apr 29, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Mentions

Tags: Earnings

HTML: /markets/mentions/earnings/what-will-meta-say-during-their-next-earnings-call/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Muse to be mentioned during Meta's next earnings call, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Analysts heavily focused on Meta's significant Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments.** - Meta's senior hiring strategy strongly prioritizes Artificial Intelligence (AI) roles.
- Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro release intensified AI competition, pressuring Meta.
- Analysts frequently inquired about Meta's AI infrastructure and capital expenditures.
- No major news outlets published significant investigative reports on Meta.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** The **market** at 62c implies overvaluation compared to the **43.2%** **model**, despite Meta's intense AI focus.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Llama | 62.0% | 45.2% | The background research, summarizing key analyst questions from sell-side reports, indicates that while "AI investments" was a primary topic, specific mentions of "Llama" were not among the explicit questions, suggesting a focus on the financial impact of AI rather than specific model implementations, although Meta's management might still mention Llama as a key AI initiative in their broader discussion. |
| Oakley | 62.0% | 43.2% | The background research detailing key analyst questions for Meta's Q1 2026 earnings makes no mention of "Oakley," suggesting it was not a focal point, while the market priced its mention at 51.2%, leaving open the possibility of an unexpected or minor discussion. |
| Algorithm | 60.0% | 54.8% | Research indicates Meta's substantial AI investments are a primary topic of analyst scrutiny, making discussion of underlying algorithms highly probable, though management could potentially use alternative terminology. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Llama | 62.0% | 45.2% |
| Oakley | 62.0% | 43.2% |
| Algorithm | 60.0% | 54.8% |
| VR / Virtual Reality | 53.0% | 50.6% |
| Ray-Ban | 81.0% | 71.9% |
| Hyperion | 36.0% | 23.1% |
| Hiring | 73.0% | 64.7% |
| Reels (3+ times) | 77.0% | 69.9% |
| Cloud | 92.0% | 89.4% |
| SAM | 28.0% | 16.1% |
| Muse | 97.0% | 96.0% |
| TikTok | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Dividend | 86.0% | 81.5% |
| Orion | 49.0% | 36.3% |
| Thread / Threads | 95.0% | 93.4% |

- Expiration: September 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited significant volatility within a clear upward trend. The probability of a "YES" outcome has risen from a starting point of 36.0% to its current price of 62.0%, trading within a range of 36.0% to 67.0%. The price action has been characterized by sharp, double-digit percentage point swings over short periods. Notably, the market saw a 15.0pp drop on April 21, followed by a 14.0pp drop on April 24, before experiencing a strong 17.0pp spike on April 26. These rapid movements indicate a reactive and uncertain market, though the specific catalysts for this volatility are not apparent from the provided context.

Technical levels appear to be forming around the mid-60s, with the price retreating from 66.0% in late April, suggesting a potential resistance area near the market's high of 67.0%. Conversely, the mid-to-high 30s have acted as a floor, with the market's initial price at 36.0% and a significant spike originating from 39.0%. The price has also pivoted around the 45-50% level, indicating this may be a key psychological battleground for traders. The total volume of 1,477 contracts suggests moderate activity over the market's lifetime, but without daily volume data, it is difficult to assess the conviction behind individual price swings.

Overall, the chart suggests that market sentiment is optimistic about the likelihood of Meta being mentioned, with the price currently holding firm at 62.0%. The sustained position above the 50% mark and the upward long-term trend point to a prevailing belief in a "YES" resolution. However, the recent history of sharp price reversals indicates that this sentiment is not held with high conviction and could be subject to rapid changes as new information or speculative trading influences the market leading up to the resolution date.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Oakley

#### 📈 April 26, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 45.0% to 62.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 24, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 59.0% to 45.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 21, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 66.0% to 51.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Cloud

#### 📈 April 23, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 75.0% to 88.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Hyperion

#### 📈 April 22, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 23.0% to 37.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if "VR / Virtual Reality" (or its plural/possessive form) is spoken by any Meta Platforms, Inc. representative during their next earnings call, including the Q&A; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is primarily verified using the earnings call video, resorting to transcripts if video consensus isn't reached, and grammatical or tense inflections of the phrase do not count.

The market opened on April 17, 2026, and closes after the outcome occurs (with the earnings call scheduled for April 29, 2026, 5:30 PM EDT), or by September 30, 2026, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Algorithm | 57% | 60% | 60% | $1,296.11 | $1,074.53 |
| Cloud | 92% | 95% | 92% | $426.72 | $381.72 |
| Dividend | 75% | 86% | 86% | $300.78 | $297.33 |
| Hiring | 76% | 84% | 73% | $641.34 | $538.47 |
| Hyperion | 32% | 36% | 36% | $904.65 | $841.26 |
| Llama | 60% | 61% | 62% | $5,032.7 | $3,448.2 |
| Muse | 95% | 97% | 97% | $368.87 | $368.87 |
| Oakley | 52% | 61% | 62% | $1,477.93 | $793.83 |
| Orion | 39% | 49% | 49% | $288.51 | $282.51 |
| Ray-Ban | 78% | 84% | 81% | $958.7 | $783.81 |
| Reels (3+ times) | 71% | 82% | 77% | $445.35 | $386.52 |
| SAM | 20% | 23% | 28% | $389.15 | $357.15 |
| Thread / Threads | 95% | 97% | 95% | $226.81 | $226.81 |
| TikTok | 5% | 9% | 9% | $305.03 | $222.14 |
| VR / Virtual Reality | 53% | 58% | 53% | $1,147.73 | $725.29 |

## What Were Analysts' Key Questions for Meta's Q1 2026 Earnings?

Primary Analyst Focus | Financial impact and growth potential of AI investments (Q1 2026 earnings reports [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/meta-platforms-earnings-preview-what-to-watch-in-q1-2026-report-200679205)) |
Reality Labs Scrutiny | Performance, progress, and financial implications of metaverse development (Q1 2026 earnings reports [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/meta-platforms-earnings-preview-what-to-watch-in-q1-2026-report-200679205)) |
Capital Allocation Queries | Share buybacks and sustainability of the dividend policy (Q1 2026 earnings reports [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/meta-platforms-earnings-preview-what-to-watch-in-q1-2026-report-200679205)) |

**Prior to Meta's Q1 2026 earnings, sell-side analysts dedicated significant attention to the company's considerable Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments**

Prior to Meta's Q1 2026 earnings, sell-side analysts dedicated significant attention to the company's considerable Artificial Intelligence (AI) investments. A primary concern involved understanding how these substantial expenditures would influence future growth, especially within the core advertising business, and their broader effect on overall profitability. Analysts also examined whether the current momentum in advertising revenue growth would be sufficient to sustain these large-scale AI commitments [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/meta-platforms-earnings-preview-what-to-watch-in-q1-2026-report-200679205).

Reality Labs performance and capital allocation strategies were also key analyst inquiries. Another significant area of analyst inquiry centered on the performance of Meta's Reality Labs segment, encompassing the progress and financial ramifications of its metaverse development initiatives [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/meta-platforms-earnings-preview-what-to-watch-in-q1-2026-report-200679205). Furthermore, analysts closely examined Meta's broader capital allocation strategies. This included specific questions about share buybacks and the long-term viability and future trajectory of the company's newly introduced dividend policy, initially announced in Q4 2025. The overall health and growth indicators of the advertising business, such as Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU), consistently remained important points of interest [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/meta-platforms-earnings-preview-what-to-watch-in-q1-2026-report-200679205).

## What Is Meta's Strategic Focus for Senior-Level Hiring?

Senior Hiring Focus | Overwhelmingly Artificial Intelligence (AI) [[^]](https://vellatimes.com/meta-ai-hiring-spree-multimillion-dollar-push/) |
AI Investment | $135 billion [[^]](http://thenextweb.com/news/meta-cuts-hundreds-more-jobs-across-reality-labs-recruiting-and-sales-as-ai-spending-doubles) |
Internal Restructuring | Reality Labs reconfigured into "AI pods" [[^]](https://www.bushletter.com/meta-reality-labs-ai-native-pods-restructure-2026/) |

**Meta's senior hiring prioritizes Artificial Intelligence (AI) across the company**

Meta's senior hiring prioritizes Artificial Intelligence (AI) across the company. An analysis of Director-level and above job postings since the last earnings call reveals an overwhelming strategic focus on AI. This is evident in numerous roles such as "Director, AI Research" [[^]](https://www.huzzle.com/jobs/director-ai-research-309764) and "Director, Technical Program Management (Ranking AI)" [[^]](https://jobsearcher.com/jobs/97ab90f7bc789309ef9821d8294cf9d14148d7d9097b4578eff7e74096dc6d52). This strategic push includes a "multimillion-dollar" AI hiring spree [[^]](https://vellatimes.com/meta-ai-hiring-spree-multimillion-dollar-push/) and a significant **$135** billion investment in AI [[^]](http://thenextweb.com/news/meta-cuts-hundreds-more-jobs-across-reality-labs-recruiting-and-sales-as-ai-spending-doubles), aimed at attracting top talent, including researchers from other leading AI organizations [[^]](https://vellatimes.com/meta-hires-openai-researchers-ai-talent-war/).

Senior roles focus on broad AI integration, not specific products. Job descriptions further indicate specialized AI endeavors, exemplified by roles like "Research Engineering Manager, Post-Training - Meta Superintelligence Labs" [[^]](https://topjobstoday.com/company/meta/job/research-engineering-manager-post-training-meta-superintelligence-labs-usa), signaling a long-term commitment to advanced AI development. Meta is also actively restructuring internal divisions, notably reconfiguring Reality Labs into "AI pods" while simultaneously cutting other positions [[^]](http://thenextweb.com/news/meta-cuts-hundreds-more-jobs-across-reality-labs-recruiting-and-sales-as-ai-spending-doubles). This reinforces a company-wide pivot towards an "AI-native" future [[^]](http://thenextweb.com/news/meta-cuts-hundreds-more-jobs-across-reality-labs-recruiting-and-sales-as-ai-spending-doubles). Crucially, the analyzed senior-level job descriptions do not heavily feature keywords related to unannounced projects like 'Orion' or 'Hyperion', nor do they prominently mention established products such as 'Reels' or 'Threads' [[^]](https://www.huzzle.com/jobs/director-ai-research-309764). Instead, the emphasis is on general AI research, development, and strategic integration across the company, suggesting a broad, foundational AI push at this hiring level.

## How Do Google's AI Advancements Impact Meta's Strategy?

Gemini 3.1 Pro Launch | February 2026, "reclaimed the AI benchmark crown" [[^]](https://www.llmrumors.com/news/gemini-3-1-pro-google-reclaims-benchmark-crown) |
Meta's Partnership Interest | Exploring Google Gemini integration [[^]](https://ainewstoday.net/how-meta-is-rethinking-its-ai-future-by-considering-google-gemini-integration) |
Financial Media Outlook | Meta "stalling" while Alphabet gained significantly [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/meta-vs-alphabet-one-just-170508725.html) |

**Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro release intensified AI competition, pressuring Meta**

Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro release intensified AI competition, pressuring Meta. Google's recent release of its Gemini 3.1 Pro AI **model** in February 2026 significantly intensified the AI competition. Reports indicate this strategic move allowed Google to "reclaim the AI benchmark crown," placing it at the forefront of the AI **model** race and creating substantial pressure on rivals like Meta [[^]](https://www.llmrumors.com/news/gemini-3-1-pro-google-reclaims-benchmark-crown).

Meta faces pressure, exploring Google partnership for AI strategy. The competitive impact is evident as Meta explores a partnership with Google for Gemini integration, following challenges with its own AI **model** development [[^]](https://ainewstoday.net/how-meta-is-rethinking-its-ai-future-by-considering-google-gemini-integration). Financial media highlights this dynamic, drawing comparisons such as "Meta vs. Alphabet: One Just Handed Investors a **40%** Return — The Other Is Still Stalling," underscoring Meta's perceived underperformance amid Alphabet's gains [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/meta-vs-alphabet-one-just-170508725.html). Consequently, Meta's management is anticipated to address its AI strategy, including progress on Llama models and potential collaborations, in upcoming discussions [[^]](https://ainewstoday.net/how-meta-is-rethinking-its-ai-future-by-considering-google-gemini-integration).

## What Do Analysts Ask About Meta's Infrastructure and Workforce?

Recurring CapEx/Infrastructure Inquirers | Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley), Mark Shmulik (Bernstein), Youssef Squali (Truist Securities) [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4780182-meta-platforms-inc-meta-q1-2025-earnings-call-transcript) |
Recurring Headcount/OpEx Inquirers | Youssef Squali (Truist Securities), Mark Shmulik (Bernstein), Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley), Justin Post (Bank of America), Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs) [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4780182-meta-platforms-inc-meta-q1-2025-earnings-call-transcript) |
Direct 'Hiring Freeze' Questions | Not explicitly found in transcripts [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4780182-meta-platforms-inc-meta-q1-2025-earnings-call-transcript) |

**Analysts frequently inquire about Meta's cloud infrastructure and capital expenditures**

Analysts frequently inquire about Meta's cloud infrastructure and capital expenditures. These discussions particularly focus on the company's AI infrastructure build-out and overall capital intensity. Brian Nowak of Morgan Stanley, Mark Shmulik from Bernstein, and Youssef Squali of Truist Securities have consistently raised these subjects across Meta's Q1, Q2, and Q3 2025 earnings calls. Additionally, Douglas Anmuth of JPMorgan and Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs have also posed questions concerning CapEx and AI infrastructure in at least two of the three most recent calls [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4780182-meta-platforms-inc-meta-q1-2025-earnings-call-transcript). Their inquiries often center on the trajectory of capital expenditures, AI infrastructure development, and data center strategy.

Workforce management and headcount consistently feature in analyst discussions. While direct questions specifically about "hiring freezes" are not explicitly found in the transcripts, analysts regularly address "headcount" and "operating expenses," indicating a clear focus on workforce management. Youssef Squali inquired about "headcount outlook" and "total expenses" in Q1 2025, and again about "headcount trends" in Q3 2025 [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4780182-meta-platforms-inc-meta-q1-2025-earnings-call-transcript). Mark Shmulik and Brian Nowak questioned "headcount and expenses" and "headcount and compensation," respectively, during the Q1 2025 call [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4780182-meta-platforms-inc-meta-q1-2025-earnings-call-transcript). Furthermore, Justin Post of Bank of America and Eric Sheridan of Goldman Sachs asked about "headcount growth" and "employee growth" in Q2 2025 [[^]](https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/META-Q2-2025-Earnings-Call-Transcript.pdf).

Information on the upcoming analyst list is currently unavailable. The published analyst list for Meta's upcoming earnings call, scheduled for resolution on April 29, 2026, was not provided within the scope of the web research results.

## Was Meta investigated by major news outlets pre-Q1 2026 earnings?

Major Investigative Report | None found from WSJ or The Information (Research Findings) [[^]](https://thestarnewsnetwork.com/2025/04/28/wsj-metas-ai-chatbots-engaged-in-explicit-sexual-roleplay-with-minors/) |
Relevant Publication Timeframe | April 26-29, 2026 (72 hours before Q1 2026 earnings) (Research Findings) [[^]](https://thestarnewsnetwork.com/2025/04/28/wsj-metas-ai-chatbots-engaged-in-explicit-sexual-roleplay-with-minors/) |
Related Reports Outside Scope | Meta AI chatbot report on April 28, 2025 [[^]](https://thestarnewsnetwork.com/2025/04/28/wsj-metas-ai-chatbots-engaged-in-explicit-sexual-roleplay-with-minors/); TechCrunch policy update on April 23, 2026 [[^]](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/23/meta-will-now-allow-parents-to-see-the-topics-their-child-discussed-with-meta-ai/) |

**No significant investigative reports by major outlets were published within the critical timeframe**

No significant investigative reports by major outlets were published within the critical timeframe. Research indicates that no significant investigative reports from major news outlets, specifically the Wall Street Journal or The Information, were published between April 26 and April 29, 2026. This 72-hour period immediately preceded Meta's earnings call on April 29, 2026. Consequently, no "narrative-setting" article on a specific Meta division or product from these designated sources was identified within this crucial window.

Several identified reports did not meet the established research criteria. While other articles were found, they failed to meet the specified requirements for various reasons. For instance, an article citing the Wall Street Journal about Meta's AI chatbots engaging in explicit sexual roleplay with minors was published on April 28, 2025 [[^]](https://thestarnewsnetwork.com/2025/04/28/wsj-metas-ai-chatbots-engaged-in-explicit-sexual-roleplay-with-minors/), falling outside the required 72-hour window. Similarly, a TechCrunch report from April 23, 2026, detailing Meta's new policy allowing parents to view topics their children discussed with Meta AI [[^]](https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/23/meta-will-now-allow-parents-to-see-the-topics-their-child-discussed-with-meta-ai/), also predated the critical 72-hour period and was characterized as a policy update rather than an investigative report from a designated major news outlet. Furthermore, articles from The Information discussing Meta's AI **market** strategy [[^]](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-briefing/meta-tries-light-fire-ai-**market**), potential layoffs [[^]](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/meta-eyes-layoffs-10-company-starting-may), or an executive departure [[^]](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/exclusive-meta-ai-infrastructure-executive-departs) were classified as briefings or news, not significant investigative reports, and lacked specific publication dates within the critical timeframe.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** September 30, 2026
- **Closes:** September 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.