# Treasury 10-year yield on May 1, 2026?

On May 1, 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Treasuries

HTML: /markets/financials/treasuries/treasury-10-year-yield-on-may-1-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the Treasury 10-year yield on May 1, 2026, to be between **4.34%** and **4.36%**, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Federal Funds Rate forecast persists at 5.375% through Q1 2026.** - FOMC projects **2.6%** as the 'longer run' federal funds rate.
- CBO forecasts **$1.8T**-**$1.9T** net Treasury debt issuance for 2025-2026.
- China reduced Treasury holdings; Japan faced repatriation pressure.
- Anticipated rate cuts after Q1 2026 could exert downward pressure.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **0.5%** **probability** vs 0c **market**, implying a +0.5pp gap, inconsistent with high FFR persistence.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4.37% to 4.39% | 26.0% | 22.6% | High federal funds rates are expected to persist through Q1 2026. |
| 4.34% to 4.36% | 31.0% | 26.5% | Sustained high policy rates are forecast to keep yields elevated. |
| 4.25% to 4.27% | 4.0% | 3.8% | Yields begin adjusting towards the FOMC's longer-run federal funds rate. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 4.37% to 4.39% | 26.0% | 22.6% |
| 4.34% to 4.36% | 31.0% | 26.5% |
| 4.25% to 4.27% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| 4.28% to 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
| 4.4% to 4.42% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| 4.43% to 4.45% | 9.0% | 8.4% |
| 4.31% to 4.33% | 17.0% | 15.3% |
| 4.55% or above | 5.0% | 5.6% |
| 4.15% or below | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 4.16% to 4.18% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 4.19% to 4.21% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 4.22% to 4.24% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 4.46% to 4.48% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 4.49% to 4.51% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 4.52% to 4.54% | 0.0% | 0.6% |

- Expiration: May 1, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market's price chart shows a complete lack of activity. The price has remained static at a 0.0% YES probability since the market's inception. Consequently, the overall trend is perfectly sideways, with no price spikes, drops, or significant movements of any kind. Since there have been no price changes, there are no market events to analyze or correlate with external context.

The most notable feature is the trading volume, which stands at zero contracts. This absence of trading indicates a total lack of market participation and conviction. Without any trades being executed, no price discovery has occurred, and it is impossible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels. The price of 0.0% simply reflects the market's starting point, not an active consensus formed by traders.

Overall, the chart suggests that there is currently no discernible market sentiment regarding the outcome of the 10-year Treasury yield on the resolution date. The market is inactive and, in its current state, offers no predictive insight. The flat line at 0.0% with zero volume signifies a dormant market awaiting its first participants.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📉 April 29, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 16.0% to 4.0%

**Outcome:** 4.25% to 4.27%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 25, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 6.0% to 16.0%

**Outcome:** 4.25% to 4.27%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the U.S. Department of the Treasury's 10-year yield curve par rate is between 4.34-4.36% on May 1, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes on May 1, 2026, at 3:25 PM EDT, with a projected payout an hour later. Settlement concludes by the sooner of 7:00 PM ET on May 1, 2026, or one week thereafter, and certain individuals with non-public information or employed by source agencies are prohibited from trading.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4.16% to 4.18% | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 4.19% to 4.21% | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 4.22% to 4.24% | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 4.25% to 4.27% | 0% | 5% | 4% | $201.16 | $186.16 |
| 4.28% to 4.3% | 0% | 9% | 5% | $148.66 | $115.66 |
| 4.31% to 4.33% | 11% | 18% | 17% | $96.28 | $65.28 |
| 4.34% to 4.36% | 29% | 31% | 31% | $256.43 | $150.74 |
| 4.37% to 4.39% | 25% | 26% | 26% | $404.76 | $359.97 |
| 4.4% to 4.42% | 9% | 11% | 10% | $126 | $120 |
| 4.43% to 4.45% | 0% | 9% | 9% | $104.96 | $104.96 |
| 4.46% to 4.48% | 0% | 6% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 4.49% to 4.51% | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 4.52% to 4.54% | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 4.15% or below | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 4.55% or above | 0% | 5% | 5% | $25 | $25 |

## How Did Terminal Federal Funds Rate Forecasts Shift?

May 2025 Survey Terminal Rate Forecast | 4.625% [[^]](https://newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/may-2025-sme-results.pdf) |
January 2026 Survey Terminal Rate View | 5.375% [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2026/jan-survey-sme.pdf) |
Total Upward Revision | 75 basis points [[^]](https://newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/may-2025-sme-results.pdf) |

**Primary dealers significantly revised terminal federal funds rate forecasts upward**

Primary dealers significantly revised terminal federal funds rate forecasts upward. Between the New York Fed's May 2025 and January 2026 **market** participant surveys, the consensus forecast for the terminal federal funds rate saw a substantial 75-basis-point increase. In May 2025, primary dealers projected a median federal funds rate target range midpoint of **4.625%** for year-end 2025, indicating this as the cycle's peak before anticipated rate cuts [[^]](https://newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2025/may-2025-sme-results.pdf). However, by January 2026, dealers viewed the prevailing **5.375%** as the terminal rate, expecting it to persist through the first quarter of 2026 before any rate reductions [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/markets/survey/2026/jan-survey-sme.pdf).

Changes in rate expectations typically influence 2-year Treasury yields. Such adjustments in the expected federal funds rate generally impact Treasury yields, with the 2-year Treasury yield being particularly sensitive to short-term interest rate expectations [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/2_year_treasury_rate). As the projected terminal federal funds rate increased between these surveys, the 2-year Treasury yield would typically be expected to rise in response [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/2_year_treasury_rate). A higher anticipated federal funds rate generally translates to a higher yield for this debt. However, specific historical data for the 2-year Treasury yield corresponding to these survey periods were not explicitly provided in the research [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/2_year_treasury_rate).

## What Is the Projected Net Treasury Debt Issuance for 2025-2026?

Net Treasury Debt Issuance 2025 | ~$1.8 trillion (CBO) [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870) |
Net Treasury Debt Issuance 2026 | ~$1.9 trillion (CBO) [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870) |
Foreign Ownership of Marketable US Treasury Debt | ~29-30% (early 2024) [[^]](https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/shl2024r.pdf), [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RS22331), [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN) |

**The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects substantial increases in U.S**

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects substantial increases in U.S. marketable Treasury debt. The CBO's "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035" indicates that the net issuance of marketable Treasury debt, representing the increase in debt held by the public, is projected to be approximately **$1.8** trillion in 2025 and an additional **$1.9** trillion in 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870). It is important to note that CBO's outlooks provide overall debt and deficit projections but do not typically disaggregate the net issuance by specific maturity lengths, such as debt with maturities longer than 5 years [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870), [[^]](https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbo/report/61882.html).

Both foreign and domestic investors historically absorb U.S. Treasury debt. The absorption of U.S. Treasury debt, particularly longer-term securities, depends on both foreign and domestic buyers. As of early 2024, foreign investors held approximately **$8.08** trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, accounting for about 29-**30%** of the total marketable debt held by the public [[^]](https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/shl2024r.pdf), [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RS22331), [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN). Historically, foreign demand, especially from private foreign investors, has been a key factor in absorbing longer-term U.S. Treasury securities [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/foreign-demand-for-us-treasury-securities-during-the-pandemic-accessible-data-20220128.htm), [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RS22331). The remaining approximately 70-**71%** of marketable Treasury debt is held by a diverse array of domestic investors.

Future absorption of projected debt requires sustained strong demand. The projected net issuance of **$1.8** trillion in 2025 and **$1.9** trillion in 2026 represents a substantial supply of new Treasury debt that will need to be absorbed by both foreign and domestic markets [[^]](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870). While the CBO does not specify the maturity profile of this projected net issuance, the Treasury Department consistently issues debt across the entire maturity spectrum, including notes and bonds with maturities longer than 5 years [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TreasuryPresentationToTBACQ22025.pdf). The sheer scale of this anticipated new debt necessitates continued robust demand from both foreign and domestic buyers to maintain **market** stability. Historical foreign participation has been particularly crucial for longer-term securities given the rising supply stemming from increasing deficits [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/foreign-demand-for-us-treasury-securities-during-the-pandemic-accessible-data-20220128.htm), [[^]](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RS22331).

## Are Q1 2026 Breakeven Inflation Rate Forecasts Available?

T10YIE Definition | Market's expectation of average annual inflation over next decade (derived from nominal Treasury and TIPS yields) [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE) |
T5YIFR Definition | Expected average inflation rate over a five-year period that begins five years from today [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR) |
Q1 2026 Forecast Data | Not available from provided sources for daily T10YIE or T5YIFR [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/5-year-5-year-forward-inflation-expectation-rate-fed-data.html) |

**Inflation expectation indicators are crucial for understanding market sentiment**

Inflation expectation indicators are crucial for understanding **market** sentiment. The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE) reflects the **market**'s expectation of average annual inflation over the next decade, derived from the difference in yields between nominal Treasury securities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE). Similarly, the 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (T5YIFR) represents the expected average inflation rate over a five-year period that begins five years from today [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR).

Q1 2026 daily forecasts for inflation rates are unavailable. While these indicators are crucial for understanding inflation expectations, the available web research results primarily offer historical data and current values. The provided sources do not contain specific daily forecasts or projections for Q1 2026 for either T10YIE or T5YIFR. For example, TradingEconomics provides historical data for T5YIFR and a 2027 forecast, but not the detailed Q1 2026 daily data required to calculate an average [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/5-year-5-year-forward-inflation-expectation-rate-fed-data.html).

Calculating future average daily inflation values is not possible. Without these specific future daily data points, it is not feasible to determine the average daily value of the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate throughout Q1 2026. Consequently, it is also not possible to assess its consistency with the inflation swap **market**'s pricing for the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate for that particular future period.

## What Were Key Trends in US Treasury Holdings by Japan and China?

Japan Treasury Holdings Jan 2026 | Increased [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-uk-drive-rise-foreign-us-treasury-holdings-january-data-shows-2026-03-18/) |
Japan Potential Repatriation | Up to $1.1 trillion in 2025 [[^]](https://www.tmscapitalresearch.com/p/japan-treasury-holdings-2025-repatriation-analysis) |
China Treasury Holdings Feb 2026 | Below $800 billion [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/china-s-years-long-retreat-from-us-treasuries-flags-bigger-risks?fromMostRead=true&srnd=2026-02-06%2Fwill-japan-s-snap-election-unsettle-global-bond-markets-and-yen-live-q-a) |

**Japan's Treasury holdings showed a short-term increase amidst repatriation discussions**

Japan's Treasury holdings showed a short-term increase amidst repatriation discussions. From mid-2025 to early 2026, Japan's holdings of long-term U.S. Treasury securities increased in January 2026, contributing to a rise in overall foreign ownership [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-uk-drive-rise-foreign-us-treasury-holdings-january-data-shows-2026-03-18/). However, this period was also marked by discussions regarding the potential repatriation of up to **$1.1** trillion of its U.S. Treasury holdings in 2025 [[^]](https://www.tmscapitalresearch.com/p/japan-treasury-holdings-2025-repatriation-analysis). This strategic consideration was likely driven by the need to support the Japanese yen and finance significant domestic government debt [[^]](https://www.tmscapitalresearch.com/p/japan-treasury-holdings-2025-repatriation-analysis). While specific short-term data indicated an increase, Japan's broader trend involved underlying pressures for long-term portfolio adjustments.

China consistently reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings during this period. In contrast to Japan, China consistently reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings throughout mid-2025 to early 2026, continuing a "years-long retreat" [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/china-s-years-long-retreat-from-us-treasuries-flags-bigger-risks?fromMostRead=true&srnd=2026-02-**06%**2Fwill-japan-s-snap-election-unsettle-global-bond-markets-and-yen-live-q-a). By February 2026, China's total holdings of U.S. Treasuries had fallen below **$800** billion [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/china-s-years-long-retreat-from-us-treasuries-flags-bigger-risks?fromMostRead=true&srnd=2026-02-**06%**2Fwill-japan-s-snap-election-unsettle-global-bond-markets-and-yen-live-q-a). This sustained reduction reflects a deliberate adjustment in China's currency reserve management policies, influenced by factors such as geopolitical considerations, diversification efforts, and a strategic move to lessen exposure to U.S. assets [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/china-s-years-long-retreat-from-us-treasuries-flags-bigger-risks?fromMostRead=true&srnd=2026-02-**06%**2Fwill-japan-s-snap-election-unsettle-global-bond-markets-and-yen-live-q-a). China's divestment indicates potential risks and suggests a continued trend of reducing or maintaining lower levels of U.S. Treasury holdings [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/china-s-years-long-retreat-from-us-treasuries-flags-bigger-risks?fromMostRead=true&srnd=2026-02-**06%**2Fwill-japan-s-snap-election-unsettle-global-bond-markets-and-yen-live-q-a).

## What is the FOMC's Longer Run Federal Funds Rate Projection?

Median Longer Run Rate | 2.6% [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm) |
Participants Projecting Above Median | 6 [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm) |
Participants Projecting Below Median | 6 [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm) |

**The March 2026 FOMC meeting set the median 'longer run' rate**

The March 2026 FOMC meeting set the median 'longer run' rate. At the Federal Open **Market** Committee's (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in March 2026, the median 'longer run' federal funds rate projection was indicated as 2.6 percent [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm). This projection reflects individual FOMC participants' anticipated rate for the federal funds rate to settle over the longer term, consistent with sustainable economic growth and stable inflation.

Participants' projections clustered evenly around the median rate. Of the 19 participants who submitted projections in the March 2026 'dot plot' [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm), the distribution around the 2.6 percent median showed a balanced clustering. Six participants projected a 'longer run' federal funds rate above the median [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm), while an equal number, six participants, projected it below the median [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm). The remaining seven participants projected the rate precisely at the median of 2.6 percent [[^]](https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** May 01, 2026
- **Expiration:** May 03, 2026
- **Closes:** May 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXTNOTEW-26APR24-T4.52: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXTNOTEW-26APR24-T4.14: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXTNOTEW-26APR24-B4.51: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXTNOTEW-26APR24-B4.48: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXTNOTEW-26APR24-B4.45: NO (Apr 24, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.