# S&P price on Apr 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

On Apr 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT

Updated: April 12, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: S&P

HTML: /markets/financials/s-p/s-p-price-on-apr-13-2026-at-4pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the S&P price on April 13, 2026, at 4pm EDT to be 6,050 or above, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Market expects Fed Funds Rate 4.38-4.63% by Q1 2026.** - This projected Fed Funds Rate implies a restrictive monetary environment.
- S&P 500 at 6,200 requires EPS **24%** above 2025 consensus.
- Higher S&P 500 levels need greater EPS growth or P/E expansion.
- Institutions hedge broad markets, not specific top S&P 500 stocks.
- S&P 500 sector performance varies with government unity post-election.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **98.8%** vs **market**'s 99c (1.0x payout) implies minor gap; restrictive policy and high EPS hinder S&P upside.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6,825 or above | 48.0% | 39.3% | Market higher by 8.7pp |
| 6,850 or above | 27.0% | 20.4% | Market higher by 6.6pp |
| 6,750 or above | 74.0% | 66.9% | Market higher by 7.1pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 6,825 or above | 48.0% | 39.3% |
| 6,850 or above | 27.0% | 20.4% |
| 6,750 or above | 74.0% | 66.9% |
| 6,775 or above | 66.0% | 57.9% |
| 6,800 or above | 56.0% | 47.3% |
| 6,875 or above | 16.0% | 11.6% |
| 6,725 or above | 78.0% | 71.6% |
| 6,675 or above | 78.0% | 72.8% |
| 6,350 or above | 81.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,950 or above | 8.0% | 7.1% |
| 6,375 or above | 82.0% | 98.6% |
| 7,075 or above | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| 6,250 or above | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,700 or above | 79.0% | 72.8% |
| 6,900 or above | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| 6,475 or above | 77.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,500 or above | 74.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,575 or above | 77.0% | 80.2% |
| 6,625 or above | 85.0% | 80.2% |
| 6,650 or above | 85.0% | 80.2% |
| 7,000 or above | 2.0% | 7.1% |
| 7,025 or above | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 6,400 or above | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,425 or above | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,450 or above | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,525 or above | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,550 or above | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| 7,050 or above | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 6,925 or above | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| 6,975 or above | 3.0% | 7.1% |
| 6,300 or above | 94.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,325 or above | 93.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,275 or above | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,050 or above | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| 6,075 or above | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| 6,100 or above | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| 6,125 or above | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| 6,150 or above | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| 6,175 or above | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| 6,200 or above | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| 6,225 or above | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| 6,600 or above | 0.0% | 80.2% |
| 7,100 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,125 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,150 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,175 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,200 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,225 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,250 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,275 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,300 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,325 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,350 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,375 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,400 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,425 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,450 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,475 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,500 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7,525 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: April 13, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price chart for this market is static, showing no discernible trend or movement. The market opened and is currently priced at a 99.0% probability for a YES outcome, indicating there has been no price change since its inception. With only a single data point available in its trading history, there have been no significant price spikes, drops, or periods of volatility to analyze. The market's initial pricing at this high level of probability cannot be attributed to any specific context or recent developments.

Trading volume is exceptionally low, with only one contract traded. This minimal activity suggests the market is highly illiquid and has not yet attracted significant participation. Consequently, the current price reflects a very limited perspective rather than a broad market consensus. Due to the complete absence of price fluctuation, no support or resistance levels have been established. The market sentiment, as implied by this single transaction, is one of extremely high confidence that the S&P 500 will resolve at or below the contract's threshold of $6049.9999 on the resolution date. However, this sentiment has not been meaningfully tested by opposing views or significant trading volume.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 13, 2026, is above 6824.9999, otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified using sources such as Google Finance. The market closes on April 13, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, with a projected payout at 7:01 PM EDT on the same day. Trading is prohibited for those employed by Source Agencies or holding material non-public information.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6,050 or above | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| 6,075 or above | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| 6,100 or above | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| 6,125 or above | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| 6,150 or above | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| 6,175 or above | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| 6,200 or above | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| 6,225 or above | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| 6,250 or above | 95% | 100% | 99% | $213 | $207 |
| 6,275 or above | 90% | 94% | 99% | $2 | $2 |
| 6,300 or above | 90% | 99% | 94% | $3 | $3 |
| 6,325 or above | 93% | 100% | 93% | $3 | $3 |
| 6,350 or above | 72% | 100% | 81% | $588 | $588 |
| 6,375 or above | 71% | 100% | 82% | $373 | $373 |
| 6,400 or above | 70% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $11 |
| 6,425 or above | 69% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $11 |
| 6,450 or above | 67% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $11 |
| 6,475 or above | 77% | 99% | 77% | $120 | $110 |
| 6,500 or above | 76% | 100% | 74% | $110 | $110 |
| 6,525 or above | 75% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $11 |
| 6,550 or above | 73% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $11 |
| 6,575 or above | 77% | 98% | 77% | $101 | $51 |
| 6,600 or above | 75% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 6,625 or above | 75% | 99% | 85% | $100 | $100 |
| 6,650 or above | 71% | 99% | 85% | $100 | $100 |
| 6,675 or above | 63% | 89% | 78% | $720 | $660 |
| 6,700 or above | 82% | 90% | 79% | $187 | $157 |
| 6,725 or above | 77% | 78% | 78% | $855 | $642 |
| 6,750 or above | 73% | 78% | 74% | $1,289 | $1,279 |
| 6,775 or above | 66% | 69% | 66% | $1,814 | $1,771 |
| 6,800 or above | 56% | 63% | 56% | $1,091 | $1,017 |
| 6,825 or above | 42% | 47% | 48% | $2,392 | $2,228 |
| 6,850 or above | 28% | 32% | 27% | $1,380 | $752 |
| 6,875 or above | 16% | 19% | 16% | $1,126 | $831 |
| 6,900 or above | 4% | 21% | 10% | $159 | $159 |
| 6,925 or above | 1% | 24% | 10% | $10 | $10 |
| 6,950 or above | 3% | 14% | 8% | $506 | $261 |
| 6,975 or above | 2% | 28% | 3% | $10 | $10 |
| 7,000 or above | 0% | 2% | 2% | $92 | $82 |
| 7,025 or above | 0% | 33% | 1% | $70 | $70 |
| 7,050 or above | 0% | 33% | 1% | $11 | $11 |
| 7,075 or above | 0% | 10% | 10% | $252 | $152 |
| 7,100 or above | 0% | 10% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,125 or above | 0% | 10% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,150 or above | 0% | 10% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,175 or above | 0% | 10% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,200 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,225 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,250 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,275 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,300 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,325 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,350 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,375 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,400 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,425 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,450 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,475 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,500 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 7,525 or above | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## How Does the Market-Implied Fed Rate Compare to the Neutral Rate?

Implied Fed Funds Rate Q1 2026 | 4.38% to 4.63% (SOFR futures curve) [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html) |
Estimated Neutral Rate (r*) | 0.6% to 0.7% (New York Fed model) [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/rstar) |
Market vs. Neutral Rate Stance | Implied policy rate for Q1 2026 is significantly above estimated long-run inflation-adjusted neutral rate [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html). |

**Market expectations project the Federal Funds Rate to reach 4.38%-4.63% by Q1 2026**

**Market** expectations project the Federal Funds Rate to reach **4.38%**-**4.63%** by Q1 2026. This projection is derived from the pricing of SOFR futures contracts, specifically the 30-Day Federal Funds Futures for March 2026, as observed on platforms like the CME Group and TradingView [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html). The CME FedWatch tool aggregates these futures prices, indicating the **market**'s collective expectation for the effective federal funds rate [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html). Further corroboration of these expectations comes from the implied policy rate curve derived from interest rate futures [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/4238/us-federal/120135/us-implied-policy-rate-curve-from-interest-rate-futures).

The New York Fed estimates a much lower inflation-adjusted neutral rate for the long run. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's research, which includes studies on the natural rate of interest and real-time estimates, places the long-run inflation-adjusted neutral rate (r-star or r*) for the U.S. in the range of approximately **0.6%** to **0.7%** [[^]](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/rstar). These underlying neutral rate estimates are often integrated into projections from models such as the New York Fed's DSGE **Model** Forecast [[^]](https://nyfed.org/40EOEX4).

**Market** expectations imply a restrictive monetary policy stance by Q1 2026. The **market**'s projected Fed Funds Rate of **4.38%** to **4.63%** for Q1 2026 is substantially higher than the New York Fed's estimated inflation-adjusted neutral rate of **0.6%** to **0.7%**. This significant difference suggests that the nominal Fed Funds Rate is expected to be well above the neutral rate, even after accounting for inflation, indicating a restrictive monetary policy posture [[^]](https://nyfed.org/40EOEX4).

## What S&P 500 EPS Is Needed for a 6,200 Index Level?

Required S&P 500 EPS for 6,200 | $344 (Research analysis) [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1) |
2025 FactSet S&P 500 EPS Forecast | $277.05 (FactSet) [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/have-industry-analysts-overestimated-sp-500-eps-for-2025) |
Difference (Required vs. Forecast) | Approximately 24.2% higher (Research analysis) [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1) |

**Achieving a 6,200 S&P 500 level requires significantly higher earnings**

Achieving a 6,200 S&P 500 level requires significantly higher earnings. To justify an S&P 500 level of 6,200 based on a historical average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18x, the aggregate S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) would need to reach approximately **$344**. This required earnings figure is substantially higher than what current top-down strategist consensus forecasts indicate for full-year 2025.

Current consensus forecasts project lower S&P 500 earnings for 2025. According to FactSet, the bottom-up EPS estimate for the S&P 500 for calendar year 2025 is approximately **$277.05** [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/have-industry-analysts-overestimated-sp-500-eps-for-2025), with a December 5, 2025, Earnings Insight report indicating an estimated **$276.99** [[^]](https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_120525.pdf). This consensus forecast projects a **12.1%** earnings growth for the S&P 500 in CY 2025 [[^]](https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2025-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-12.1). For comparison, individual strategists like Ed Yardeni have provided a 2025 EPS forecast of **$280** [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/sp-500-ed-yardenis-280-eps-forecast-for-2025--whats-behind-the-bullish-view-200655731).

The target EPS is considerably higher than current analyst expectations. Comparing the required **$344** EPS to the current FactSet consensus forecast of approximately **$277** reveals a substantial difference. The target earnings figure of **$344** is about **$67,** or approximately **24.2%**, higher than the current analyst consensus. This indicates that a significant upward revision in earnings expectations or an expansion in the forward P/E multiple would be needed to justify an S&P 500 level of 6,200 based on the historical 18x P/E ratio.

## What is the SPX June 2026 Implied Probability and Volatility Skew?

Implied Probability SPX > 6,200 (June 2026) | Not feasible to determine from research [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/options/) |
Typical SPX Volatility Skew | Negative or "smirk" skew [[^]](https://optioncharts.io/options/SPY/chain/chart/volatility-skew) |
June 2026 Volatility Skew vs. Shorter-dated | Less pronounced or "flatter" [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ES*0/volatility-greeks) |

**Calculating the implied probability of the S&P 500 index finishing above 6,200 for the June 2026 expiration is not feasible using the available research**

Calculating the implied **probability** of the S&P 500 index finishing above 6,200 for the June 2026 expiration is not feasible using the available research. This type of calculation requires comprehensive real-time options data spanning various strike prices for that specific expiration, alongside a sophisticated financial **model** to derive a risk-neutral **probability** distribution [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/options/). The provided sources primarily offer general option chain viewers or expiry calendars, which do not directly output implied probabilities for specific price targets [[^]](https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/options/Cboe2026OPTIONSCalendar.pdf).

S&P 500 (SPX) options typically display a negative or "smirk" volatility skew. This means that out-of-the-money (OTM) put options generally show higher implied volatility compared to at-the-money (ATM) options, reflecting the **market**'s demand for downside protection [[^]](https://optioncharts.io/options/SPY/chain/chart/volatility-skew). For longer-dated expiries, such as June 2026, the volatility skew generally appears less steep or "flatter" than for shorter-dated options [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ES*0/volatility-greeks). While the underlying negative slope typically endures, the magnitude of implied volatility differences across various strikes tends to decrease with increased time to expiration, as extended timeframes facilitate the averaging out of specific event risks [[^]](https://flashalpha.com/articles/volatility-skew-trading-strategies-live-data).

## Are Institutions Bearish on Top S&P 500 Stocks in Q4 2025?

Citadel Advisors Q4 2025 Put Option Portfolio | $666 billion (Q4 2025) [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/citadel-q4-2025-ken-griffins-666b-put-option-fortress) |
Jane Street Q4 2025 SPY Puts | $96 billion (Q4 2025) [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/jane-street-q4-2025-662b-quant-giant-96b-spy-puts) |
JPMorgan Top Q4 2025 Holding | NVIDIA (Q4 2025) [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/jpmorgan-q4-2025-nvidia-top-holding-broadcom-surge) |

**Analysis of Q4 2025 13F filings reveals institutional hedging primarily targets broad markets, not specific top S&P 500 stocks**

Analysis of Q4 2025 13F filings reveals institutional hedging primarily targets broad markets, not specific top S&P 500 stocks. While major institutions possess substantial put option portfolios, these largely serve as broad **market** hedges rather than explicit long-dated put positions specifically targeting individual top 10 S&P 500 constituents. For instance, Citadel Advisors reported a significant **$666** billion put option portfolio, which focused on general **market** hedges and specific stock options without detailing individual top S&P 500 targets [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/citadel-q4-2025-ken-griffins-666b-put-option-fortress). Similarly, Jane Street's Q4 2025 filing included **$96** billion in SPY puts, indicating a significant hedging strategy against the overall S&P 500 index rather than its specific components [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/jane-street-q4-2025-662b-quant-giant-96b-spy-puts). Based on these summaries, extensive hedging exists via broad **market** put options, but not prominent detailing of large, long-dated put positions directly against individual top 10 S&P 500 stocks.

Conversely, many major institutions displayed a bullish stance on numerous S&P 500 top constituents. JPMorgan's Q4 2025 filing listed NVIDIA as its top holding and Broadcom among its top five [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/jpmorgan-q4-2025-nvidia-top-holding-broadcom-surge). Norway's Norges Bank increased its exposure to NVIDIA and Apple, while FMR LLC (Fidelity) showed a **10.29%** concentration in NVIDIA [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/norges-bank-q4-2025-935b-sovereign-wealth-nvidia-apple). Vanguard Group also identified NVIDIA as its leading holding, and Goldman Sachs' filing revealed Tesla entering its top five holdings [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/vanguard-group-q4-2025-13f-6-9t-aum-nvda-top-holding). These filings instead show substantial long positions and increased allocations to these highly weighted companies, suggesting a prevailing bullish or neutral sentiment on these specific names [[^]](https://13finsight.com/research/jpmorgan-q4-2025-nvidia-top-holding-broadcom-surge).

## Which S&P 500 Sectors Outperform After US Elections?

Unified Democratic Government Outperformers | Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services [[^]](https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/10/201) |
Unified Republican Government Outperformers | Energy, Materials, Financials, Industrials [[^]](https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/10/201) |
Divided Democratic Government Outperformers | Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities [[^]](https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/10/201) |

**S&P 500 sector performance historically varies based on government unity and presidential party**

S&P 500 sector performance historically varies based on government unity and presidential party. During periods of unified government, where the same party controls both the Presidency and Congress, specific sectors tend to outperform in the 18 months following an election. Under Democratic presidents leading a unified government, sectors such as Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services typically show outperformance. Conversely, when a Republican president presides over a unified government, sectors like Energy, Materials, Financials, and Industrials often demonstrate stronger performance [[^]](https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/10/201).

Divided governments also exhibit distinct sector performance trends. In scenarios where a Democratic president faces a divided Congress, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Utilities sectors have historically outperformed. Historical analysis further indicates that under a Republican president with a divided government, sectors such as Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services tend to perform well, although this particular political configuration has been less common in recent elections. These patterns highlight the significant influence of the political landscape on the relative performance of various segments within the S&P 500 [[^]](https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/10/201).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 13, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 20, 2026
- **Closes:** April 13, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXINXU-26APR10H1600-T7499.9999: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXINXU-26APR10H1600-T7474.9999: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXINXU-26APR10H1600-T7449.9999: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXINXU-26APR10H1600-T7424.9999: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXINXU-26APR10H1600-T7399.9999: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.