# Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 14, 2026?

On Apr 14, 2026

Updated: April 12, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Oil & Gas

HTML: /markets/financials/oil-gas/oil-price-wti-on-apr-14-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect WTI oil prices to be **$90** or above on April 14, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Geopolitical tensions significantly increase WTI options' implied volatility.** - Saudi Arabia's 2025 fiscal breakeven is projected at **$96.2** per barrel.
- U.S. SPR refill strategy targets purchases at or below **$79** per barrel.
- WTI call option skew is at a four-year high, signaling upside.
- Options **market** signals increased risk of WTI reaching **$150** per barrel.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **91.3%** **probability**, implying 1.2x payout, is driven by options **market** upside risk and Saudi Arabia's high breakeven.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $90 or above | 86.0% | 91.3% | Saudi Arabia's $96.2 fiscal breakeven price creates a strong OPEC+ incentive to support prices. |
| $104 or above | 19.0% | 26.0% | Increased implied volatility and option call skew signal higher upside risk beyond $100. |
| $91 or above | 87.0% | 91.3% | OPEC+ is strongly incentivized to support prices due to Saudi Arabia's $96.2 fiscal breakeven. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $90 or above | 86.0% | 91.3% |
| $104 or above | 19.0% | 26.0% |
| $91 or above | 87.0% | 91.3% |
| $100 or above | 36.0% | 62.5% |
| $99 or above | 46.0% | 62.5% |
| $97 or above | 56.0% | 66.2% |
| $95 or above | 65.0% | 74.2% |
| $94 or above | 75.0% | 82.4% |
| $93 or above | 79.0% | 85.5% |
| $103 or above | 19.0% | 26.0% |
| $98 or above | 44.0% | 62.5% |
| $92 or above | 80.0% | 86.2% |
| $101 or above | 40.0% | 62.5% |
| $96 or above | 65.0% | 74.2% |
| $102 or above | 52.0% | 62.5% |

- Expiration: April 14, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has shown a distinct upward trend, beginning at a 77.0% probability and currently trading at 87.0%. The most significant event in the chart's history was a sharp 13.0 percentage point spike on April 11, 2026, where the price jumped from 77.0% to a peak of 90.0%. Since this spike, the price has slightly pulled back but continues to trade at elevated levels. Without any accompanying news or external context provided, the specific catalyst for this sudden, dramatic repricing is unclear from the data alone. The movement itself, however, represents a fundamental shift in the market's expectation.

The price action suggests key technical levels have been established. The previous price of 77.0% acted as a strong support base before the breakout, while the spike's peak at 90.0% has formed a new resistance level. Trading volume appears to have increased following the price spike, as shown by the 38 contracts traded on April 12 after a period of zero volume. This increase in trading activity suggests growing conviction and participation at these higher probability levels. The market is currently consolidating between the new support and resistance, testing the new price range.

Overall, the chart indicates a strong and decisively bullish sentiment. The sharp upward move and the subsequent consolidation at a high probability suggest that participants have a strong conviction that the WTI oil price will meet the market's resolution criteria on April 14, 2026. The current price of 87.0% reflects a high degree of confidence in a positive outcome, with the market having aggressively priced in new information or a change in outlook on April 11.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: $91 or above

#### 📈 April 12, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 79.0% to 90.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: $92 or above

#### 📈 April 11, 2026: 23.0pp spike

Price increased from 67.0% to 90.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil on April 14, 2026, is above $99.99; otherwise, it resolves to NO. Outcomes are verified from ICE (Intercontinental Exchange). Trading for this market closes on April 14, 2026, at 2:30 PM EDT, with a projected payout at 3:30 PM EDT the same day.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $101 or above | 27% | 45% | 40% | $409 | $409 |
| $102 or above | 16% | 52% | 52% | $136 | $136 |
| $103 or above | 16% | 19% | 19% | $557 | $557 |
| $104 or above | 6% | 19% | 19% | $2,047 | $1,962 |
| $90 or above | 79% | 86% | 86% | $3,628 | $3,475 |
| $91 or above | 72% | 88% | 87% | $2,005 | $1,593 |
| $92 or above | 68% | 88% | 80% | $472 | $469 |
| $93 or above | 78% | 79% | 79% | $565 | $560 |
| $94 or above | 74% | 77% | 75% | $615 | $596 |
| $95 or above | 49% | 73% | 65% | $869 | $814 |
| $96 or above | 43% | 72% | 65% | $187 | $183 |
| $97 or above | 56% | 72% | 56% | $1,520 | $1,234 |
| $98 or above | 35% | 64% | 44% | $474 | $464 |
| $99 or above | 31% | 60% | 46% | $1,870 | $1,838 |
| $100 or above | 36% | 51% | 36% | $1,962 | $1,621 |

## What is Saudi Arabia's 2025 Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price?

Saudi Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price (2025) | $96.2 per barrel [[^]](https://www.imf.org/en/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2025/october/english/text.pdf) |
Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth (2025) | 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2026) |
Breakeven Price Purpose | Price needed for Saudi government to balance its budget [[^]](https://www.imf.org/en/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2025/october/english/text.pdf) |

**Saudi Arabia's 2025 fiscal breakeven oil price is projected at $96.2**

Saudi Arabia's 2025 fiscal breakeven oil price is projected at **$96.2**. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Saudi Arabia will require an average oil price of approximately **$96.2** per barrel in 2025 to balance its budget [[^]](https://www.imf.org/en/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2025/october/english/text.pdf). This critical price point covers all government expenditures, including public spending and debt servicing, preventing the need to draw down financial reserves or accrue new debt [[^]](https://www.imf.org/en/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2025/october/english/text.pdf).

Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ oil supply growth is forecast to increase significantly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a total non-OPEC+ oil supply growth of 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2025 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-january-2026). This robust expansion in global oil production is primarily attributed to key producers such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-january-2026). The IMF's breakeven price addresses the fiscal requirements of a major oil exporter, whereas the IEA's forecast highlights expected volumetric growth in the overall global oil **market** supply [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-january-2026).

## What Are Major Permian Producers' 2025 Capital and Production Plans?

Combined ExxonMobil & Chevron 2025 Capex | $42.5 billion - $44.5 billion (calculated from [[^]](https://energy-analytics-institute.org/2024/12/11/exxonmobil-reveals-2030-corporate-plan-eyes-capex-of-27bn-29bn-in-2025/), [[^]](https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget)) |
ExxonMobil 2025 Permian Production Target | 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day [[^]](https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/companies/news/55337264/exxonmobil-bumps-up-2030-target-for-permian-production) |
Chevron 2025 Production Outlook | Relatively flat [[^]](https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget) |

**ExxonMobil and Chevron detail significant 2025 capital expenditure plans**

ExxonMobil and Chevron detail significant 2025 capital expenditure plans. Their combined projected capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated to be between **$42.5** billion and **$44.5** billion [[^]](https://energy-analytics-institute.org/2024/12/11/exxonmobil-reveals-2030-corporate-plan-eyes-capex-of-27bn-29bn-in-2025/). Individually, ExxonMobil has allocated **$27** billion to **$29** billion for its 2025 capital expenditure [[^]](https://energy-analytics-institute.org/2024/12/11/exxonmobil-reveals-2030-corporate-plan-eyes-capex-of-27bn-29bn-in-2025/), supporting its goal to achieve 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in Permian production by that year [[^]](https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/companies/news/55337264/exxonmobil-bumps-up-2030-target-for-permian-production). Chevron's capital and exploratory spending program for 2025 is set at **$15.5** billion [[^]](https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget), with its anticipated 2025 production projected to be relatively flat compared to its 2024 forecasts, excluding any asset sales [[^]](https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget).

Data is unavailable for other key Permian producers and DUC wells. Specific 2025 capital expenditure plans or projected production growth for Occidental, ConocoPhillips, and Diamondback Energy were not found in the provided sources. Additionally, information regarding the EIA's reported inventory of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells over the past four quarters was also not available.

## How Do EV Sales Impact Global Oil Demand Forecasts?

IEA 2026 Oil Demand Revision | Downward by 83,000 bpd [[^]](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/iea-lowers-2026-global-oil-demand-outlook-by-83-000-barrels-per-day/54666) |
Reason for IEA Revision | Stronger-than-expected EV sales penetration [[^]](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/iea-lowers-2026-global-oil-demand-outlook-by-83-000-barrels-per-day/54666) |
OPEC 2026 Oil Demand Revision | No specific volumetric revision due to EV sales [[^]](https://publications.opec.org/woo) |

**The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 oil demand due to increased EV adoption**

The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 oil demand due to increased EV adoption. The IEA has revised its 2026 global oil demand forecast downwards by 83,000 barrels per day (bpd) in its 'Oil 2024' report [[^]](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/iea-lowers-2026-global-oil-demand-outlook-by-83-000-barrels-per-day/54666). This adjustment primarily stems from stronger-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) sales penetration, particularly in significant markets such as China and India [[^]](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/iea-lowers-2026-global-oil-demand-outlook-by-83-000-barrels-per-day/54666). This revision highlights the significant influence of the accelerating shift towards electric mobility on future oil consumption projections [[^]](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/493a4f1b-c0a8-4bfc-be7b-b9c0761a3e5e/Oil2024.pdf).

OPEC's outlook lacks specific, quantified EV-driven forecast revisions. While the IEA's 'Oil 2024' report explicitly details this revision and its underlying reasons, the available sources for OPEC's 'World Oil Outlook' [[^]](https://publications.opec.org/woo) do not contain a specific, quantified adjustment to its 2026 global oil demand forecast directly attributed to updated projections for EV sales penetration. OPEC's reports typically present their current forecasts without detailing specific volumetric revisions from prior outlooks based on individual factors like EV sales.

## What is the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Refill Strategy and Progress?

Monthly Purchase Volume | Up to 3 million barrels [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-monthly-solicitations-purchase-oil-strategic) |
Target Price Range | At or below $79 per barrel [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-issues-solicitation-purchase-crude-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve) |
Percentage Re-contracted | More than 27% of the 2022 drawdown [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-new-solicitation-purchase-oil-strategic-petroleum) |

**The DOE actively refills the Strategic Petroleum Reserve monthly**

The DOE actively refills the Strategic Petroleum Reserve monthly. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) intends to conduct monthly solicitations to purchase up to 3 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with deliveries scheduled through Fiscal Year 2025 (FY2025) [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-monthly-solicitations-purchase-oil-strategic). The DOE's target acquisition price for these purchases is when crude oil is at or below **$79** per barrel, a strategy designed to benefit American taxpayers [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-issues-solicitation-purchase-crude-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve). Historically, the DOE has successfully purchased oil for the SPR at an average price of **$74.29** per barrel [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-monthly-solicitations-purchase-oil-strategic) and awarded contracts at an average of **$73.85** per barrel [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve).

SPR replenishment efforts have recovered over a quarter of drawdown. In 2022, an emergency drawdown of 180 million barrels was authorized to address global supply disruptions [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-monthly-solicitations-purchase-oil-strategic). As of March 14, 2024, the DOE has secured more than 50 million barrels towards refilling the SPR [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-new-solicitation-purchase-oil-strategic-petroleum). This quantity accounts for over **27%** of the total 180 million barrels released during the 2022 emergency drawdown [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-new-solicitation-purchase-oil-strategic-petroleum). The DOE's approach focuses on replenishing the reserve during opportune **market** conditions, enabling purchases at prices considerably lower than the average **$95** per barrel at which the oil was sold in 2022 [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/us-department-energy-announces-monthly-solicitations-purchase-oil-strategic).

## What Do WTI Options Signals Indicate For Crude Oil Prices?

WTI Call Skew | 4-year high over the last quarter [[^]](https://thetradable.com/commodities/wti-oil-analysis-options-skew-hits-4year-high-signals-upside-risk-for-crude--a) |
WTI $150/Barrel Risk | Increased risk signaled by options market [[^]](http://www.reuters.com/business/energy/with-hormuz-still-shut-options-market-signals-rising-risk-150-oil-2026-03-26/) |
Crude Oil Implied Volatility | Generally increased due to geopolitical tensions [[^]](https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/rising-call-skew-signals-acute-oil-risk-and-a-rare-hedging-window) |

**Geopolitical tensions have significantly increased WTI options' implied volatility**

Geopolitical tensions have significantly increased WTI options' implied volatility. Over the last quarter, implied volatility for WTI options, including those expiring in December 2025, has shown an upward trend. This increase primarily responds to heightened geopolitical tensions impacting global oil supply routes, particularly disruptions and threats in critical areas like the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes. This elevated risk perception has led to higher overall implied volatility, signaling **market** expectations for larger price swings in WTI crude oil [[^]](https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/rising-call-skew-signals-acute-oil-risk-and-a-rare-hedging-window).

WTI call skew has surged, indicating significant upside risk. Concurrently, the call skew for WTI options has seen a significant increase, reaching a 4-year high [[^]](https://thetradable.com/commodities/wti-oil-analysis-options-skew-hits-4year-high-signals-upside-risk-for-crude--a). This rising call skew indicates that out-of-the-money call options are becoming relatively more expensive, suggesting the **market** is pricing in a higher **probability** of substantial upside movements in crude oil prices [[^]](https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/rising-call-skew-signals-acute-oil-risk-and-a-rare-hedging-window). In response to concerns about potential supply disruptions, such as a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the options **market** is signaling an increased risk of WTI oil reaching **$150** per barrel, reflecting a "fear trade" where traders anticipate price spikes driven by geopolitical events [[^]](https://www.tastylive.com/news-insights/bombs-or-a-deal-crude-oil-traders-brace-for-thursday-s-iran-talks).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 14, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 21, 2026
- **Closes:** April 14, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXWTI-26APR10-T110.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR10-T109.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR10-T108.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR10-T107.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR10-T106.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.