# Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 13, 2026?

On Apr 13, 2026

Updated: April 11, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Oil & Gas

HTML: /markets/financials/oil-gas/oil-price-wti-on-apr-13-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that WTI oil prices will be **$81** or above on April 13, 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Confirmed physical crude oil supply disruptions elevate prices.** - Persistent **market** tightness and strong backwardation maintain elevated prices.
- No emergency OPEC+ meetings scheduled; intervention is not expected.
- Coordinated Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases aim to stabilize supply.
- WTI experienced a significant price spike on April 11, 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **97%** vs 95c **market** (1.1x payout) reflects persistent tightness despite SPR releases stabilizing prices.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $91 or above | 74.0% | 79.3% | Confirmed supply disruptions and market tightness are expected to maintain elevated prices. |
| $100 or above | 15.0% | 13.3% | Substantial Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases are designed to stabilize supply and mitigate extreme price increases. |
| $95 or above | 46.0% | 53.0% | Persistent market tightness and lack of OPEC+ intervention suggest continued elevated prices. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $91 or above | 74.0% | 79.3% |
| $100 or above | 15.0% | 13.3% |
| $95 or above | 46.0% | 53.0% |
| $105 or above | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| $93 or above | 56.0% | 62.9% |
| $97 or above | 32.0% | 38.3% |
| $101 or above | 12.0% | 10.4% |
| $92 or above | 69.0% | 74.9% |
| $99 or above | 20.0% | 24.6% |
| $98 or above | 24.0% | 29.3% |
| $96 or above | 37.0% | 43.7% |
| $94 or above | 51.0% | 58.0% |
| $102 or above | 12.0% | 10.4% |
| $90 or above | 78.0% | 82.7% |
| $104 or above | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| $103 or above | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| $89 or above | 79.0% | 83.5% |
| $87 or above | 93.0% | 94.7% |
| $85 or above | 94.0% | 95.5% |
| $83 or above | 91.0% | 95.5% |
| $88 or above | 89.0% | 91.6% |
| $81 or above | 95.0% | 97.0% |
| $86 or above | 89.0% | 94.7% |
| $84 or above | 89.0% | 95.5% |
| $82 or above | 96.0% | 97.0% |

- Expiration: April 13, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This analysis covers the prediction market for the WTI oil price on April 13, 2026, specifically whether it will resolve above $80.99. The market shows a sharp upward trend, defined almost entirely by a single, significant price movement. On April 11, 2026, the probability jumped dramatically by 45.0 percentage points, moving from a neutral 51.0% to a highly confident 96.0%. This singular event established the market's current high price level, where it has remained stable. The cause for this sudden re-evaluation of probability is not indicated by the provided context.

The trading volume provides critical insight into this price action. Nearly all the market's activity, 75 out of 79 total contracts, occurred during the price spike on April 11. This concentration of volume suggests that the move from 51.0% to 96.0% was backed by strong conviction from a burst of trading activity. The low overall volume, however, indicates a relatively thin market where a small number of trades can have an outsized impact on the price.

Due to the limited number of data points and the abrupt nature of the price change, establishing traditional support and resistance levels is difficult. The price has effectively moved from an initial base near 51.0% to a new plateau around 96.0%. This current price indicates that market sentiment has shifted decisively. Traders now assign a very high probability to the WTI oil price being above $80.99 on the resolution date, reflecting a strong consensus that has formed rapidly.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 11, 2026: 45.0pp spike

Price increased from 51.0% to 96.0%

**Outcome:** $81 or above

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is above $80.99 on April 13, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is verified from ICE WTI Crude Futures data. The market closes at 2:30 PM EDT on April 13, 2026, with a projected payout at 3:30 PM EDT on the same day.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $101 or above | 7% | 12% | 12% | $12,733 | $7,351 |
| $102 or above | 4% | 14% | 12% | $7,811 | $4,897 |
| $103 or above | 3% | 17% | 4% | $3,339 | $1,903 |
| $104 or above | 3% | 5% | 4% | $4,609 | $3,424 |
| $105 or above | 4% | 5% | 5% | $16,161 | $10,672 |
| $81 or above | 95% | 99% | 95% | $193 | $175 |
| $82 or above | 84% | 97% | 96% | $10 | $10 |
| $83 or above | 90% | 92% | 91% | $517 | $507 |
| $84 or above | 67% | 92% | 89% | $20 | $20 |
| $85 or above | 85% | 99% | 94% | $683 | $563 |
| $86 or above | 80% | 92% | 89% | $188 | $178 |
| $87 or above | 78% | 94% | 93% | $1,769 | $1,125 |
| $88 or above | 68% | 92% | 89% | $506 | $506 |
| $89 or above | 85% | 91% | 79% | $2,223 | $2,137 |
| $90 or above | 73% | 78% | 78% | $5,244 | $4,538 |
| $91 or above | 71% | 78% | 74% | $19,605 | $11,370 |
| $92 or above | 65% | 68% | 69% | $12,476 | $7,746 |
| $93 or above | 55% | 56% | 56% | $15,654 | $10,230 |
| $94 or above | 47% | 60% | 51% | $7,950 | $5,185 |
| $95 or above | 43% | 47% | 46% | $18,401 | $9,588 |
| $96 or above | 34% | 37% | 37% | $10,268 | $6,547 |
| $97 or above | 30% | 32% | 32% | $12,972 | $7,864 |
| $98 or above | 20% | 23% | 24% | $10,370 | $5,766 |
| $99 or above | 15% | 20% | 20% | $11,683 | $7,527 |
| $100 or above | 14% | 18% | 15% | $18,678 | $9,164 |

## What Caused the WTI Price Spike on April 11?

Crude Oil Surge | 11% [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil/news/538907) |
Saudi Arabia Oil Output Cut | April 9th [[^]](https://d2448.cms.socastsrm.com/2026/04/09/attacks-cut-saudi-oil-output-and-east-west-pipeline-flow-state-news-agency-says/) |
Strait of Hormuz Production Threat | 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/kuwait-oil-infrastructure-attack-strait-hormuz-shutdown-threatens-2-6m-bpd-production-rebound-2604/) |

**The WTI price spike on April 11th was directly influenced by confirmed physical crude oil supply disruptions**

The WTI price spike on April 11th was directly influenced by confirmed physical crude oil supply disruptions. Attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure on April 9th led to reduced output and disrupted flow through the East-West Pipeline [[^]](https://d2448.cms.socastsrm.com/2026/04/09/attacks-cut-saudi-oil-output-and-east-west-pipeline-flow-state-news-agency-says/). Additionally, Kuwaiti oil infrastructure was reportedly under attack [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/kuwait-oil-infrastructure-attack-strait-hormuz-shutdown-threatens-2-6m-bpd-production-rebound-2604/). These incidents occurred amidst a broader regional conflict that had already caused a significant plunge in OPEC oil output in March due to war-forced export cuts [[^]](https://www.oilmonster.com/article/opec-oil-output-plunges-in-march-as-war-forces-export-cuts/8059).

Geopolitical tensions exacerbated **market** anxiety, amplifying the price spike. Concurrently, geopolitical announcements and threats significantly fueled **market** anxiety. A major concern was the potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which prompted warnings from JP Morgan that WTI could reach **$120** if it stalled [[^]](https://www.tradingnews.com/news/oil-price-today-wti-hits-99-usd-dated-brent-at-131-usd). Futures markets on April 11th actively reflected concerns over the "Conflict in the Persian Gulf," indicating that ongoing geopolitical tensions were a primary driver of investor sentiment and price speculation [[^]](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/11/heres-what-the-futures-markets-are-saying-about-oi/?referring_guid=7d3edbb8-c749-4ba4-ba72-0124096b11ee). This environment of instability, coupled with the actual supply impacts, led to an **11%** crude oil surge and a "panicked race for barrels" [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil/news/538907).

## Why Is WTI Futures Contract Data for April 11 Unavailable?

CLM6 Open Interest (April 11) | Not present in research findings (CME Group, Barchart [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-calendar-swap-futures.volume.html)) |
CLM6 Trading Volume (April 11) | Not present in research findings (CME Group, Barchart [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-calendar-swap-futures.volume.html)) |
CLM6 Large vs. Small Lot Trades (April 11) | Not present in research findings (CME Group, Barchart [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-calendar-swap-futures.volume.html)) |

**Specific data for April 11th's WTI futures contract is unavailable for detailed analysis**

Specific data for April 11th's WTI futures contract is unavailable for detailed analysis. The provided web research results lack specific information regarding open interest, trading volume, and the ratio of large block trades to smaller lot trades for the front-month WTI futures contract (CLM6) on April 11th. This absence precludes a detailed analysis of commercial hedger versus speculative fund participation for that particular day. The available sources primarily consist of general links to platforms like CME Group and Barchart, which offer access to historical and real-time **market** data for crude oil futures and options [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/west-texas-intermediate-wti-crude-oil-calendar-swap-futures.volume.html). CME Group does provide daily exchange volume and open interest reports, including a daily bulletin, which are resources for obtaining detailed **market** activity statistics [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/**market**-data/volume-open-interest/exchange-volume.html); however, specific extracted data for April 11th was not present.

**Market** interpretation without data relies on general theoretical principles. In the absence of specific data for April 11th, any **market** interpretation can only be theoretical. Typically, a high proportion of large block trades relative to smaller lot trades, especially when coinciding with significant changes in open interest and trading volume, often indicates increased involvement from institutional participants. These participants can include commercial hedgers adjusting their risk exposure or large speculative funds taking substantial positions. Commercial hedgers generally trade to mitigate price risk associated with their physical assets or liabilities, while speculative funds aim to profit from price movements.

High block trade ratios with rising open interest suggest institutional activity. A higher ratio of large block trades combined with rising open interest during a price move could indicate that significant institutional capital, potentially including commercial entities, is either entering or adjusting positions in response to **market** conditions. Conversely, a predominance of smaller lot trades might point to higher activity from individual traders or smaller speculative entities. Without the actual data for April 11th, 2024, for the CLM6 contract, it is not possible to draw concrete conclusions about the specific roles of commercial hedgers versus speculative funds on that particular trading day.

## What Caused the Crude Oil Price Spike in Q1 2026?

WTI Midland Premiums | Record highs amid Middle East oil disruptions [[^]](https://energynews.pro/en/wti-midland-premiums-hit-record-highs-amid-middle-east-oil-disruptions) |
Oil Futures Market | Strong backwardation (immediate futures prices well above later deliveries) [[^]](https://archive.ph/dd7Nf) |
Overall Crude Oil Prices | Sharp increase in the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424) |

**The April 11th event led to strong backwardation in WTI futures**

The April 11th event led to strong backwardation in WTI futures. Following this event, the crude oil **market** experienced a "panicked race for barrels," resulting in strong backwardation in WTI time spreads where immediate futures prices significantly exceeded those for later deliveries [[^]](https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/the-oil-**market**-is-in-the-grip-of-a-panicked-race-for-barrels). This tightening, characteristic of a supply crunch, signaled an urgent demand for prompt supply, despite some potential "front-end correction" or "cooling" in the oil curve [[^]](https://commodity-board.com/oil-curve-cools-front-end-retreats-while-long-term-prices-slide/). The prevailing **market** sentiment reflected an immediate scarcity, confirming a robust tightening of front-month spreads.

Physical grade differentials also confirmed the supply crunch, validating futures spikes. Concurrently, physical grade differentials reacted sharply, further reinforcing the presence of a genuine supply crunch. WTI Midland premiums, a critical indicator for physical WTI pricing, reached record highs amid Middle East oil disruptions [[^]](https://energynews.pro/en/wti-midland-premiums-hit-record-highs-amid-middle-east-oil-disruptions). This substantial increase in WTI Midland premiums, combined with the tightening futures time spreads, strongly indicates that the futures price spike was validated by a similar tightening in the physical **market**, signaling an immediate supply crunch [[^]](https://energynews.pro/en/wti-midland-premiums-hit-record-highs-amid-middle-east-oil-disruptions). This broader **market** tightness significantly contributed to the sharp increase in crude oil and petroleum product prices observed during the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424).

## What Were the Coordinated Strategic Petroleum Reserve Releases by DOE and IEA?

DOE Total Committed Release | 172 million barrels of oil [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve) |
IEA Total Coordinated Release | 180 million barrels from emergency reserves [[^]](https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026) |
U.S. Contribution to IEA Second Release | 60 million barrels [[^]](https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026) |

**The U.S**

The U.S. Department of Energy detailed significant Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. On April 6, 2026, the DOE announced that the United States would release a total of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to stabilize global oil supply [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve). This commitment encompassed 30 million barrels previously announced for release in March 2026, alongside an additional 142 million barrels to be released over the subsequent six months [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve). As part of this broader initiative, the DOE solicited proposals for 30 million barrels of SPR crude oil on April 9, 2026 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solicits-proposals-30-million-barrels-spr-oil-2026-04-09/). By March 30, 2026, the U.S. had already released 10 million barrels from the SPR, following an earlier release of 30 million barrels in March, amidst oil prices exceeding **$112** per barrel [[^]](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-taps-millions-more-barrels-from-strategic-reserve-critics-warn-drawdown-could-fuel-vulnerabilities).

The International Energy Agency orchestrated two record-setting collective oil reserve releases. The IEA's first collective action, decided on March 1, 2026, involved releasing 60 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves [[^]](https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026). A subsequent announcement on March 11, 2026, detailed a second, record-setting collective action to make 120 million barrels of oil available from emergency stockpiles, which represented the largest oil stock release in IEA history [[^]](https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026). Of this 120-million-barrel release, 60 million barrels were committed by the United States [[^]](https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026). Cumulatively, IEA member countries committed to releasing 180 million barrels through these coordinated efforts [[^]](https://www.iea.org/news/update-on-iea-collective-action-decision-of-11-march-2026).

## Are Emergency OPEC+ Meetings Scheduled for April 12-13, 2026?

Emergency OPEC+ Meetings | None specifically scheduled for April 12-13, 2026 (provided sources) [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/597-5-april-2026.html) |
EIA Brent Crude Forecast | 22% jump for 2026 (April 12, 2026 [[^]](https://www.petroleumnews.com/story/2026/04/12/finance/eia-forecasts-22-percent-jump-in-brent-for-2026/50059.html)) |
Next Major Energy Event | 25th WPC Energy Congress, April 26–30, 2026, Riyadh [[^]](https://wpcenergy2026.org/congress/) |

**No emergency OPEC+ meetings are scheduled for the specified dates**

No emergency OPEC+ meetings are scheduled for the specified dates. Based on available information, there is no exact schedule for any emergency OPEC+ meetings or press conferences involving key energy ministers, such as those from Saudi Arabia or the UAE, explicitly set for Sunday, April 12th, or pre-**market** hours on Monday, April 13th, 2026, that would introduce new supply information. While OPEC and OPEC+ regularly monitor **market** conditions and have previously indicated production adjustments for upcoming months, including a potential boost in May [[^]](https://www.oilandgasadvancement.com/news/opec-signals-oil-production-boost-in-may-amid-**market**-review/), and Russia has suggested the OPEC+ monitoring panel would likely discuss oil price rises [[^]](https://www.oilmonster.com/article/russia-says-opec-monitoring-panel-is-likely-to-discuss-oil-price-rise/8066), these general announcements do not specify emergency meetings on the exact dates requested.

Broader energy sector events fall outside the target timeframe. The provided sources indicate general activities and forecasts around the specified period, but none align with the request for emergency meetings. For instance, the 25th WPC Energy Congress is scheduled for April 26–30, 2026, in Riyadh [[^]](https://wpcenergy2026.org/congress/), which takes place after the target dates. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) did issue a forecast on April 12, 2026, projecting a **22%** increase in Brent crude for the year [[^]](https://www.petroleumnews.com/story/2026/04/12/finance/eia-forecasts-22-percent-jump-in-brent-for-2026/50059.html), but this was a forecast, not an OPEC+ meeting or new supply information. Additionally, OPEC released press details earlier in March and April 2026 that were unrelated to emergency meetings on the specific requested dates [[^]](https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/597-5-april-2026.html). A meeting between Saudi and U.S. energy ministers in Riyadh occurred on April 13, 2025 [[^]](https://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=3225811&language=en), but this was in a prior year and therefore not relevant to the current inquiry.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 13, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 20, 2026
- **Closes:** April 13, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXWTI-26APR10-T110.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR10-T109.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR10-T108.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR10-T107.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR10-T106.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.