# Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?

2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Nasdaq

HTML: /markets/financials/nasdaq/will-the-nasdaq-100-finish-positive-in-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the NASDAQ-100 to finish 2026 at 25,249.86 or above, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Leading NASDAQ-100 companies project significant GAAP EPS for 2026.** - US Treasury plans substantial, diversified debt issuance through 2026.
- Top NASDAQ-100 companies significantly surge AI infrastructure capital expenditures.
- Google antitrust remedies by late 2025 will impact big tech.
- New administration's 2026 budget proposes significant corporate tax changes.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** (**64.8%**) indicates a 1.8-point higher chance than 63c **market**, implying 1.6x payout given strong EPS and AI CapEx.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 25,249.86 or above | 63.0% | 64.8% | The consensus GAAP EPS projections for several leading NASDAQ-100 components indicate positive profitability for 2026, supporting the market's expectation for the index to finish positively, though these are analyst forecasts that may largely be factored into the current debiased price. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 64.8% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 63.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: 25,249.86 or above
- Edge: +1.8pp
- Expected Return: +2.9%
- R-Score: 0.18
- Total Volume: $54,109.31
- 24h Volume: $171.23
- Open Interest: $33,237.26

- Expiration: December 31, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a clear upward trend since its inception. The perceived probability of the NASDAQ-100 finishing positive in 2026 has increased from an opening price of 56.4% to its current level of 63.0%. The market has traded within a relatively stable range, establishing a low of 56.4% and a high of 68.0%. The primary price movement has been a gradual climb, reflecting a steady increase in positive sentiment among traders over the 154 data points recorded. As no specific news or external context was provided, the price fluctuations appear to be driven by general market sentiment and trading dynamics rather than reactions to specific events.

The trading volume provides additional insight into market conviction. With a total of 10,854 contracts traded, there is significant participation in this market. The sample data shows that volume increased after the initial trading day, which, combined with the rising price, suggests growing conviction behind the bullish outlook. From a technical perspective, the opening price of 56.4% has acted as a firm support level, which the market has not breached. The peak of 68.0% serves as the current resistance level. Overall, the price action indicates that market participants have become more optimistic over time, pricing in a roughly 63% chance that the NASDAQ-100 will end 2026 with a yearly gain.

## Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if the NASDAQ-100 index value is above 25,249.85 at 4:00 PM EST on December 31, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes at this time, and the outcome will be verified using sources such as Google Finance. The market expires at the sooner of the first release of the data or one week after December 31, 2026.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 25,249.86 or above | 62.4% | 67.5% | 63% | $54,109.31 | $33,237.26 |

## What are 2026 GAAP EPS Projections for Leading Tech Companies?

Microsoft (MSFT) 2026 GAAP EPS | Approximately $13.50 (3, 8) [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310) |
Apple (AAPL) 2026 GAAP EPS | Approximately $7.20 (1, 5) [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310) |
Amazon (AMZN) 2026 GAAP EPS | Approximately $4.80 (1, 5) [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310) |

**Consensus forecasts project significant 2026 GAAP EPS for leading NASDAQ-100 components**

Consensus forecasts project significant 2026 GAAP EPS for leading NASDAQ-100 components. Microsoft (MSFT) is projected to achieve a GAAP EPS of approximately **$13.50** for 2026 [[^]](https://businessquant.com/stocks/msft/estimates). Apple (AAPL) is anticipated to reach around **$7.20** [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310), while Amazon (AMZN) holds a consensus forecast of roughly **$4.80** [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310). Alphabet (GOOGL) is expected to attain about **$8.90** for the same period [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310). For NVIDIA (NVDA), specific full-year 2026 GAAP EPS forecasts are not extensively detailed across the available sources beyond expectations for Q1 2026 [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310).

The 2026 10-year Treasury yield is anticipated to be around **4.15%**. This forward pricing for the 10-year Treasury yield for December 2026 indicates **market** expectations [[^]](https://ahasignals.com/10y-treasury-yield-tracker/). This projected yield is a crucial benchmark for discounting future earnings and evaluating investment attractiveness, thereby influencing equity valuations and the broader economic outlook for 2026 [[^]](https://ahasignals.com/10y-treasury-yield-tracker/). The robust GAAP EPS forecasts for these major tech companies, when considered alongside the expected 10-year Treasury yield, suggest that analysts foresee substantial earnings growth, potentially supporting equity valuations even within this forecasted bond yield environment [[^]](https://ahasignals.com/10y-treasury-yield-tracker/).

## What is the US Treasury's Debt Issuance Strategy for 2025-2026?

Total Net Marketable Borrowing | Expected to average $500-600 billion quarterly through 2025-2026 [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf) |
Notes Issuance (2-10 year) | Anticipated to be 40-50%+ of net issuance, averaging $150-300 billion per quarter [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf) |
T-Bills Issuance | Projected to account for 30-40% of net issuance, averaging $170-215 billion per quarter [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf) |

**Treasury plans substantial, diversified debt issuance through 2025 and 2026**

Treasury plans substantial, diversified debt issuance through 2025 and 2026. Net marketable borrowing is projected to average between **$500** billion and **$600** billion per quarter [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf). The composition of this debt will remain diversified across maturities. T-Bills are expected to constitute 30-**40%** of total net borrowing, generally ranging from **$170** billion to **$215** billion per quarter [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf). Notes, covering 2-year to 10-year maturities, are projected to form the largest share, averaging between **$150** billion and **$300** billion quarterly, accounting for over 40-**50%** of the total [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf). For longer-duration securities, the Treasury plans to maintain existing auction sizes for most notes and 30-year bonds, while incrementally increasing 20-year bond issuance by **$1** billion per auction in the first quarter of 2025, a new size that will then be maintained [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf). Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are also slated for increased net issuance, particularly in 2026, with Q1 and Q4 2026 projected at **$30** billion, up from **$10**-15 billion in most 2025 quarters [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf). This comprehensive strategy aligns with the Treasury's stated goals of meeting financing needs, ensuring **market** liquidity, and managing the average maturity of outstanding debt [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0305), [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0384).

Sustained long-duration debt issuance will impact the yield curve. The consistent and substantial issuance of longer-dated notes and bonds through 2025 and 2026 is expected to maintain supply pressure on the long-duration yield curve [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0305), [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0384), [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableByRefundingQuarter-11052025.pdf). While the Treasury aims for a balanced approach, the ongoing level of issuance in maturities such as 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year will necessitate continuous **market** absorption [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4866432-quarterly-refunding-to-overload-treasury-bills). This sustained supply, coupled with overall large borrowing needs, could contribute to upward pressure on long-duration yields or, at a minimum, prevent significant declines, as investors will demand compensation for holding this debt [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4866432-quarterly-refunding-to-overload-treasury-bills). The interplay between this sustained long-duration supply and significant T-Bill issuance, intended to address short-term financing needs, could contribute to a steeper yield curve, particularly if demand for long-duration instruments does not keep pace with supply or if short-term rates are contained.

## What Are Big Tech's Projected AI Infrastructure Investments by 2026?

Projected AI-driven CapEx by 2026 | $500 billion to $780 billion [[^]](https://brobillionaire.com/article-big-tech-capex-cycle-2026.html) |
High estimate Big Tech CapEx surge by 2026 | $780 billion [[^]](https://brobillionaire.com/article-big-tech-capex-cycle-2026.html) |
AI product revenue growth vs. analyst projections (H2 2025) | Not explicitly detailed in sources [[^]](https://nasdaq100pro.com/top-nasdaq-100-companies-market-cap/) |

**Capital expenditures for top NASDAQ-100 companies are significantly surging due to AI infrastructure investments**

Capital expenditures for top NASDAQ-100 companies are significantly surging due to AI infrastructure investments. These leading companies, often characterized as Big Tech and Hyperscalers, are experiencing a substantial increase in CapEx, primarily driven by strategic investments in AI infrastructure [[^]](https://macrospire.com/posts/deep-dive-how-ai-infrastructure-spending-is-reshaping-big-tech-valuations-and-what-it-means-for-investors). Projections for 2026 suggest total CapEx could range from **$500** billion to **$780** billion. More specific estimates include a **$780** billion spending surge within Big Tech and an estimated **$650** billion dedicated to AI CapEx within the same timeframe [[^]](https://brobillionaire.com/article-big-tech-capex-cycle-2026.html). This period of intensified investment is recognized as an "AI CapEx supercycle" that profoundly impacts company valuations and the broader NASDAQ **market** landscape [[^]](https://macrospire.com/posts/deep-dive-how-ai-infrastructure-spending-is-reshaping-big-tech-valuations-and-what-it-means-for-investors). Notably, approximately **$720** billion of this expenditure is attributed to AI Hyperscalers, specifically focusing on growth-oriented projects [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/720-billion-capex-trap-2-225100260.html).

The research lacks specific data on AI product revenue growth meeting analyst projections. The provided sources do not offer direct data or analyses concerning whether corresponding revenue growth from AI products is meeting analyst projections by the second half of 2025. Although a preliminary Q3 2025 earnings update for the NASDAQ-100 is mentioned [[^]](http://www.nasdaq.com/docs/nasdaq-100-preliminary-q3-2025-earnings-update), the available information does not explicitly detail revenue growth specifically from AI products or compare such growth against analyst projections for H2 2025.

## What's the Status of Big Tech Antitrust Lawsuits by Q4 2025?

Google Search Ad Remedies | Expected by December 5, 2025 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/05/judge-finalize-remedies-in-google-antitrust-case.html) |
Google Ad Tech Case Status | Advanced to closing arguments, structural remedies discussed [[^]](https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/cb2c3ded/what-you-need-to-know-from-closing-arguments-in-us-v-google) |
Apple Antitrust Lawsuit Status | Expected to be in active phase by Q4 2025 [[^]](https://www.justice.gov/atr/case/us-and-plaintiff-states-v-google-llc-and-apple-inc) |

**Google's antitrust cases are significantly progressing, with remedies expected by late 2025**

Google's antitrust cases are significantly progressing, with remedies expected by late 2025. The US Department of Justice's antitrust lawsuits against Google are advancing, with key milestones anticipated by Q4 2025. A judge is expected to finalize remedies for Google's search advertising practices as early as December 5, 2025 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/05/judge-finalize-remedies-in-google-antitrust-case.html). Furthermore, the US v. Google Ad Tech case, which addresses whether Google's Ad Tech stack should be broken up, has moved into closing arguments. This indicates the case is well into its trial phase, with potential for significant rulings or remedy discussions by the fourth quarter of 2025 [[^]](https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/cb2c3ded/what-you-need-to-know-from-closing-arguments-in-us-v-google). While Google may face adverse court decisions on certain aspects by 2025, the exact nature of these remedies, particularly concerning structural changes such as divestitures, remains a critical point of discussion [[^]](https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/cb2c3ded/what-you-need-to-know-from-closing-arguments-in-us-v-google).

Apple faces a Department of Justice antitrust lawsuit actively progressing by Q4 2025. The US Department of Justice has also filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple. By Q4 2025, this case is expected to be either in an active trial phase or advancing through discovery and preliminary motions [[^]](https://www.justice.gov/atr/case/us-and-plaintiff-states-v-google-llc-and-apple-inc).

## What Corporate Tax Changes Does Trump Propose for 2026?

Corporate Tax Rate | From 21% to 15% [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Legislation-for-Historic-Prosperity-and-Deficit-Reduction-1.pdf) |
R&D Expensing | Permanent 100% expensing [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Legislation-for-Historic-Prosperity-and-Deficit-Reduction-1.pdf) |
Proposed Legislation | "The One Big Beautiful Bill Act" unveiled May 2025 [[^]](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2025-05-02/trump-unveils-federal-budget-blueprint) |

**The new administration's 2026 budget proposes significant corporate tax changes**

The new administration's 2026 budget proposes significant corporate tax changes. Following the 2024 US election, the new Trump administration unveiled its first budget proposal for Fiscal Year 2026 in May 2025, featuring substantial corporate tax policy revisions under a legislative package called "The One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [[^]](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2025-05-02/trump-unveils-federal-budget-blueprint). This bill is central to the administration's strategy for economic growth and deficit reduction [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Legislation-for-Historic-Prosperity-and-Deficit-Reduction-1.pdf). Key proposals include a permanent reduction in the corporate income tax rate from **21%** to **15%** [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Legislation-for-Historic-Prosperity-and-Deficit-Reduction-1.pdf).

The bill includes permanent expensing for R&D and other investments. Additionally, the proposed legislation seeks to make permanent the **100%** expensing for research and development (R&D) costs, which currently face amortization requirements under existing law [[^]](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Legislation-for-Historic-Prosperity-and-Deficit-Reduction-1.pdf). Further provisions outlined in reports on "The One Big Beautiful Bill Act" include a permanent **100%** expensing for business investments and full interest deductibility [[^]](https://assets.kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2025/05/fy2025-budget-reconciliation-bill.html).

Enactment probabilities are not available from the current research. Regarding the **probability** of these proposed policies being enacted, the provided research does not contain information about the final composition of Congress after the 2024 election [[^]](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2025-05-02/trump-unveils-federal-budget-blueprint). Consequently, the sources do not offer specific probabilities for the enactment of these corporate tax changes, focusing instead on detailing the proposed policies themselves [[^]](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2025-05-02/trump-unveils-federal-budget-blueprint).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** December 31, 2026
- **Expiration:** January 08, 2027
- **Closes:** December 31, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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