# Gold price on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 8, 2026

Category: Financials

Tags: Metals

HTML: /markets/financials/metals/gold-price-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the gold price to be above 4276.99 on April 10, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Central bank gold accumulation notably decelerated from 2023 to 2024.** - Reduced institutional gold demand is indicated by this slower accumulation.
- Reports suggest robust physical gold demand persists in China.
- Managed Money's net position in COMEX Gold is currently moderate.
- The implied Fed Funds Rate from March 2026 SOFR futures is unavailable.
- The 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate could not be determined.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** (**98.8%**) estimates gold slightly lower than **market** (**99.0%**) due to decelerating central bank accumulation.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 4676.99 | 83.0% | 80.2% | Market higher by 2.8pp |
| above 4456.99 | 97.0% | 96.4% | Market higher by 0.6pp |
| above 4416.99 | 98.0% | 97.6% | Market higher by 0.4pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above 4676.99 | 83.0% | 80.2% |
| above 4456.99 | 97.0% | 96.4% |
| above 4416.99 | 98.0% | 97.6% |
| above 4656.99 | 81.0% | 80.2% |
| above 4756.99 | 71.0% | 66.8% |
| above 4636.99 | 86.0% | 83.6% |
| above 4696.99 | 75.0% | 76.8% |
| above 4336.99 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above 4816.99 | 57.0% | 51.9% |
| above 4836.99 | 46.0% | 40.7% |
| above 4536.99 | 91.0% | 89.4% |
| above 4776.99 | 63.0% | 58.2% |
| above 4796.99 | 57.0% | 51.9% |
| above 4736.99 | 67.0% | 66.8% |
| above 4476.99 | 94.0% | 92.9% |
| above 4596.99 | 85.0% | 83.6% |
| above 4856.99 | 30.0% | 35.8% |
| above 4516.99 | 94.0% | 92.9% |
| above 4716.99 | 80.0% | 76.8% |
| above 4556.99 | 89.0% | 87.1% |
| above 4876.99 | 41.0% | 35.8% |
| above 4616.99 | 85.0% | 83.6% |
| above 4576.99 | 87.0% | 84.7% |
| above 4436.99 | 95.0% | 96.4% |
| above 4396.99 | 98.0% | 97.6% |
| above 4896.99 | 33.0% | 28.2% |
| above 4376.99 | 97.0% | 97.6% |
| above 4316.99 | 97.0% | 98.8% |
| above 4356.99 | 98.0% | 97.6% |
| above 4916.99 | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| above 4936.99 | 24.0% | 20.0% |
| above 4296.99 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above 4496.99 | 93.0% | 92.9% |
| above 4976.99 | 8.0% | 6.4% |
| above 4276.99 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above 5056.99 | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| above 4956.99 | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| above 4996.99 | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| above 5016.99 | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| above 5036.99 | 0.0% | 3.2% |

- Expiration: April 10, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market shows a clear upward trend, with the probability of a "YES" outcome rising from a starting point of 67.0% to its current level of 99.0%. The price action has been characterized by significant volatility despite the overall bullish direction. Notably, the market experienced a sharp 15.0 percentage point drop on April 5th, followed by an even larger 20.0 percentage point spike the very next day on April 6th. The specific catalysts for this sharp reversal and intense volatility are not apparent from the information provided, as no external context or news was available to explain these movements.

The most critical factor in this analysis is the extremely low trading volume, with only 5 contracts traded in total across all data points. This indicates a highly illiquid market with very few active participants. In such an environment, even small trades can cause significant price swings, and the price may not accurately reflect a broad market consensus. While the current 99.0% price suggests nearly unanimous conviction among the active traders that the outcome will be "YES," this sentiment is based on minimal participation. The market's trading range has been established between a low of 57.0% and the current high of 99.0%, which serves as the immediate resistance level. The low volume undermines the strength of any technical signals.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above 4356.99

#### 📉 April 07, 2026: 13.0pp drop

Price decreased from 93.0% to 80.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above 4316.99

#### 📈 April 06, 2026: 26.0pp spike

Price increased from 69.0% to 95.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above 4296.99

#### 📉 April 05, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 76.0% to 57.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 10, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 4836.99 USD/t.oz; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opens on April 3, 2026, at 5 PM EDT, closes on April 10, 2026, at 5 PM EDT, and has a projected payout on April 10, 2026, at 6 PM EDT. The outcome is verified using Trading Economics - Gold, with the settlement value rounded to the nearest 0 decimal places, and trading is prohibited for individuals with insider information or those employed by Source Agencies.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 4276.99 | 97% | 100% | 99% | $5 | $5 |
| above 4296.99 | 98% | 100% | 99% | $88 | $87 |
| above 4316.99 | 92% | 98% | 97% | $137 | $137 |
| above 4336.99 | 72% | 100% | 99% | $798 | $551 |
| above 4356.99 | 97% | 98% | 98% | $131 | $121 |
| above 4376.99 | 70% | 100% | 97% | $159 | $140 |
| above 4396.99 | 97% | 98% | 98% | $252 | $240 |
| above 4416.99 | 98% | 100% | 98% | $1,876 | $1,204 |
| above 4436.99 | 83% | 98% | 95% | $286 | $233 |
| above 4456.99 | 95% | 99% | 97% | $1,909 | $1,127 |
| above 4476.99 | 71% | 96% | 94% | $608 | $528 |
| above 4496.99 | 89% | 98% | 93% | $55 | $45 |
| above 4516.99 | 88% | 97% | 94% | $505 | $319 |
| above 4536.99 | 67% | 97% | 91% | $691 | $471 |
| above 4556.99 | 66% | 94% | 89% | $353 | $304 |
| above 4576.99 | 65% | 99% | 87% | $290 | $220 |
| above 4596.99 | 63% | 97% | 85% | $597 | $365 |
| above 4616.99 | 62% | 96% | 85% | $301 | $235 |
| above 4636.99 | 86% | 97% | 86% | $887 | $586 |
| above 4656.99 | 73% | 95% | 81% | $1,228 | $763 |
| above 4676.99 | 86% | 88% | 83% | $2,255 | $1,229 |
| above 4696.99 | 54% | 93% | 75% | $800 | $500 |
| above 4716.99 | 51% | 80% | 80% | $411 | $288 |
| above 4736.99 | 60% | 87% | 67% | $626 | $525 |
| above 4756.99 | 57% | 73% | 71% | $1,037 | $456 |
| above 4776.99 | 56% | 79% | 63% | $636 | $301 |
| above 4796.99 | 38% | 64% | 57% | $631 | $515 |
| above 4816.99 | 55% | 62% | 57% | $744 | $377 |
| above 4836.99 | 33% | 61% | 46% | $719 | $672 |
| above 4856.99 | 26% | 44% | 30% | $546 | $510 |
| above 4876.99 | 25% | 43% | 41% | $334 | $135 |
| above 4896.99 | 20% | 53% | 33% | $222 | $142 |
| above 4916.99 | 14% | 27% | 21% | $103 | $101 |
| above 4936.99 | 12% | 43% | 24% | $91 | $70 |
| above 4956.99 | 8% | 37% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above 4976.99 | 6% | 42% | 8% | $7 | $7 |
| above 4996.99 | 5% | 35% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above 5016.99 | 3% | 27% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above 5036.99 | 2% | 35% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above 5056.99 | 2% | 33% | 4% | $4 | $4 |

## Are Key Federal Funds Rate Projections Explicitly Available?

Implied Fed Funds Rate (March 2026 SOFR) | Not explicitly stated in provided research [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.quotes.html) |
Median Fed Funds Rate (Year-End 2025 SEP) | Not explicitly stated in provided research [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260318.pdf) |
Long-Run Fed Funds Rate (SEP) | Not explicitly stated in provided research [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMDLR) |

**The implied Fed Funds Rate from March 2026 SOFR futures is unavailable**

The implied Fed Funds Rate from March 2026 SOFR futures is unavailable. Determining the precise implied terminal Fed Funds Rate from the March 2026 SOFR futures contract is not possible with the provided research. While CME Group, TradingView, and MarketWatch reference quotes for the Three-Month SOFR March 2026 contract, the specific numerical price or the resulting implied rate is not explicitly stated in their titles or descriptions [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/three-month-sofr.quotes.html). The standard calculation to approximate the 3-month SOFR rate, which tracks the effective Fed Funds Rate, typically involves subtracting the futures contract price from 100.

Federal Reserve's SEP projections for 2025 and long-run are not explicit. Similarly, the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) does not explicitly provide the exact numerical median projections for the federal funds rate for year-end 2025 or the long-run rate within the text of the source titles or descriptions. Relevant sources, including the March 2026 FOMC projections table, FRED Blog discussions, and a blog post referencing the Fed Dot Plot, do not explicitly state these specific values [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260318.pdf). Although a FRED series for the longer-run median projection is identified, its value is also not explicitly stated [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMDLR). Accessing the full content of these external resources would be necessary to obtain these precise data points.

## Did Central Banks Decelerate Gold Accumulation from 2023 to 2024?

Net Gold Additions (Dec 2022-2023) | 200.0 tonnes [[^]](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-central-bank-statistics) |
Net Gold Additions (Dec 2023-2024) | 65.2 tonnes [[^]](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-central-bank-statistics) |
Gold Accumulation Trend | Significant deceleration in net additions [[^]](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-central-bank-statistics) |

**The aggregate net change in gold reserves decelerated considerably for the central banks of China (PBoC), India (RBI), and Turkey over the last four reported quarters**

The aggregate net change in gold reserves decelerated considerably for the central banks of China (PBoC), India (RBI), and Turkey over the last four reported quarters. From December 2023 to December 2024, these central banks collectively increased their gold reserves by a net 65.2 tonnes [[^]](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-central-bank-statistics). This represents a significant slowdown compared to the preceding four-quarter period, from December 2022 to December 2023, when their combined net increase was 200.0 tonnes [[^]](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-central-bank-statistics).

China's PBoC was the primary driver of accumulation in the earlier period. Between December 2022 and December 2023, the PBoC increased its gold reserves by 224.9 tonnes. India's RBI also contributed, adding 16.2 tonnes. In contrast, Turkey's gold reserves experienced a net decrease of 41.1 tonnes during this time, resulting in the stated combined net positive change of 200.0 tonnes for the three central banks [[^]](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-central-bank-statistics).

The latest period shows varied activity, reflecting an overall slowdown in gold accumulation. From December 2023 to December 2024, the PBoC's pace of accumulation slowed considerably, adding 28.9 tonnes. However, India's RBI accelerated its purchases, increasing its gold reserves by 42.2 tonnes. Turkey continued its reduction, with a net sale of 5.9 tonnes. The aggregate net change for this most recent period was 65.2 tonnes, highlighting a notable slowdown in overall gold accumulation by these central banks compared to the previous year [[^]](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/monthly-central-bank-statistics).

## How Does Managed Money Gold Positioning Compare Historically?

Current Managed Money Net Position | Moderately above 20% of total open interest [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8444/gold-futures-and-options-np-oi-ratio) |
August 2020 Peak Positioning | Approximately 35-40% of total open interest [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8444/gold-futures-and-options-np-oi-ratio) |
March 2022 Peak Positioning | Approximately 20-25% of total open interest [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8444/gold-futures-and-options-np-oi-ratio) |

**Managed Money's current net position in COMEX Gold is moderate**

Managed Money's current net position in COMEX Gold is moderate. The net position of 'Managed Money' in COMEX Gold futures, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, is currently fluctuating within a moderate range. This positioning is generally above **20%** [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8444/gold-futures-and-options-np-oi-ratio). It is notably lower than the extreme levels observed before the August 2020 gold price peak, yet it generally aligns more closely with or is slightly higher than the levels seen prior to the March 2022 peak [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8444/gold-futures-and-options-np-oi-ratio).

Gold peaks show varied Managed Money positioning extremes. Ahead of the August 2020 gold price peak, 'Managed Money' net positioning reached approximately 35-**40%** of total open interest [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8444/gold-futures-and-options-np-oi-ratio). In contrast, prior to the March 2022 gold price peak, positioning was relatively lower, appearing to be in the range of approximately 20-**25%** of total open interest [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/8444/gold-futures-and-options-np-oi-ratio).

## What Is the Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium/Discount in Early 2026?

SGE Premium Role | Key proxy for physical gold demand in China [[^]](https://metalcharts.org/shanghai/xau) |
China Gold Market Early 2026 | Experienced a strong start, indicating robust demand [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4870009-china-gold-market-update-strong-start-to-2026) |
Specific Data Sources | Daily SGE reports and specialized market analyses provide pricing details [[^]](https://en.sge.com.cn/h5_data_DailyReport?end_date=2026-01-20&inst_ids=&p=&start_date=2026-01-20), [[^]](https://www.isabullion.com/reports/daily-gold-and-silver-market-analysis-06-apr-2026/), [[^]](https://www.isabullion.com/reports/daily-gold-and-silver-market-analysis-07-apr-2026/) |

**The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) premium or discount against the LBMA spot price is a vital gauge of China's physical gold demand**

The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) premium or discount against the LBMA spot price is a vital gauge of China's physical gold demand. Real-time figures for April 2026 and the preceding three months (January-March 2026) are generally available from specialized gold **market** data services, with sources such as "China Gold Price | Shanghai Premium vs US Spot" tracking this relationship [[^]](https://metalcharts.org/shanghai/xau). Pricing details necessary for calculating or directly reporting these premiums are found in daily SGE reports, including data for January 20, 2026 [[^]](https://en.sge.com.cn/h5_data_DailyReport?end_date=2026-01-20&inst_ids=&p=&start_date=2026-01-20), and comprehensive **market** analyses for dates like April 6 and 7, 2026 [[^]](https://www.isabullion.com/reports/daily-gold-and-silver-**market**-analysis-06-apr-2026/), [[^]](https://www.isabullion.com/reports/daily-gold-and-silver-**market**-analysis-07-apr-2026/).

China's gold **market** experienced a robust "strong start to 2026" [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4870009-china-gold-**market**-update-strong-start-to-2026), supporting a stable SGE premium. This strong demand environment typically leads to an elevated or consistent SGE premium, as increased physical gold purchases in China tend to raise local prices relative to international benchmarks. Continuous monitoring of this premium, often depicted through specialized charts, helps assess whether demand has consistently strengthened, remained stable, or moderated during the January-March 2026 period [[^]](https://metalcharts.org/shanghai/xau).

The SGE premium serves as a key proxy for the strength of physical gold demand in China [[^]](https://metalcharts.org/shanghai/xau). A positive and sustained premium signals robust local buying interest, often driven by consumer purchases, investment activity, or central bank acquisitions. Conversely, a discount or a narrowing premium would indicate reduced domestic demand. The "strong start to 2026" cited in **market** updates suggests healthy physical demand in China throughout early 2026 [[^]](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4870009-china-gold-**market**-update-strong-start-to-2026).

## Can the Current 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Be Found?

5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | Available in sources [[^]](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=T5YIEM) |
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | Available in source [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE) |
20-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | Available in source [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T20YIEM) |

**The 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate could not be determined**

The 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate could not be determined. The specific 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, derived from the spread between 2-Year U.S. Treasury yields and 2-Year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), was not explicitly provided in the accessed sources. While breakeven inflation rates for other maturities, such as the 5-Year [[^]](https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=T5YIEM), 10-Year [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE), and 20-Year [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T20YIEM), were mentioned as available, the direct 2-year rate was absent. General interest rate statistics and daily treasury rates from the U.S. Department of the Treasury [[^]](https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield), along with data from other providers for 2-Year Treasury rates [[^]](http://ycharts.com/indicators/2_year_treasury_rate), also did not yield this specific metric.

Breakeven inflation reflects **market** expectations against the Fed's target. The breakeven inflation rate serves as a **market**-derived expectation of the average annual inflation rate over a given period. It is typically calculated by subtracting the yield of a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) from the yield of a nominal Treasury security of the same maturity. The Federal Reserve aims for a long-run average inflation rate of **2%**, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. However, without the current 2-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, it is not possible to assess whether this particular rate is trending above or below the Federal Reserve's target based on the available research.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 17, 2026
- **Closes:** April 10, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 14 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXGOLDW-26APR0317-T4779.99: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXGOLDW-26APR0317-T4759.99: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXGOLDW-26APR0317-T4739.99: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXGOLDW-26APR0317-T4719.99: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXGOLDW-26APR0317-T4699.99: NO (Apr 03, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.