# Nasdaq-100 price on Apr 28, 2026 at 4pm EDT? On Apr 28, 2026 at 4pm EDT Updated: April 28, 2026 Category: Financials Tags: Daily Nasdaq HTML: /markets/financials/daily/nasdaq-100-price-on-apr-28-2026-at-4pm-edt/ ## Short Answer **The model sees potential mispricing: Nasdaq-100 at 24,300 or above on April 28, 2026, at 99.3% model vs 0.0% market.** This outlook is driven by strong projected EPS growth for key constituents and a positive technology sector outlook. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Nasdaq-100's largest constituents project strong Q1 2026 EPS growth.** - AI significantly drives projected earnings per share growth for tech firms. - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on technology sectors for 2026. - Index level 25,000 requires a 32.9x P/E multiple by April 2026. - This required P/E is notably higher than the ZIRP period average. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.3%** **probability** versus 0c **market** highlights strong EPS growth and positive tech outlook. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 0.0% | 99.3% | Model higher by 99.3pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 99.3% (Yes) - Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +99.3pp - Expected Return: +0.0% - R-Score: 14.18 - Total Volume: $25,704.9 - 24h Volume: $21,218.19 - Open Interest: $15,772.72 - Expiration: April 28, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market is currently inactive, with zero contracts traded since its inception. The price has remained completely static, opening and holding at a 99.0% probability for a "YES" outcome. This flat, sideways trend indicates a complete lack of trading activity and price discovery. Without any transactions, the current price does not reflect a collective market sentiment or consensus. Instead, it likely represents the initial price set by the market creator or an automated market maker, which has yet to be challenged or confirmed by any traders. Given the absence of price movement, there are no significant spikes or drops to analyze, and therefore no causal events to identify from external news or context. The zero-volume pattern is the most critical feature of this chart, suggesting a total lack of market conviction or participation at the current price level. Because no trades have occurred, it is impossible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels. The chart's primary insight is not about market sentiment for the Nasdaq-100's future price, but rather the current lack of engagement in this specific prediction market. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to Yes if the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on April 28, 2026, is above 27099.99; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market closes on April 28, 2026, at 4:00pm EDT, with a projected payout at 7:01pm EDT, and the outcome is verified from sources such as Google Finance. Settlement conditions include the market expiring at the sooner of the first data release or one week after April 28, 2026, and a modification by the Exchange to the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## How Does AI Influence Q1 2026 'Magnificent Seven' EPS Growth? Aggregate Q1 2026 EPS Growth | 25% year-over-year (24-26% range) [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310) | Attributed AI Contribution to Growth | 40-50% of incremental EPS growth [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310) | Nvidia Q1 2026 EPS Growth (AI chips) | >60% [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/streetinsider/article/marketminute-2026-1-28-the-s-and-p-7-magnificent-seven-solidifies-dominance-as-2026-profit-projections-outpace-broader-market) | **Wall Street analysts project strong Q1 2026 EPS growth for key tech firms** Wall Street analysts project strong Q1 2026 EPS growth for key tech firms. As of January 2026, and largely reaffirmed in early March 2026, the consensus for the top seven Nasdaq-100 constituents, known as the 'Magnificent Seven,' indicated a robust aggregate year-over-year Q1 2026 EPS growth of approximately **25%**, with projections ranging from **24%** to **26%** [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310). A significant portion of this anticipated strong performance, specifically between **40%** and **50%** of the incremental EPS growth for the group, was directly attributed to these companies' substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and the subsequent expansion of AI-driven services and hardware sales [[^]](https://ibuidl.org/blog/magnificent-seven-q1-2026-earnings-20260310). Artificial intelligence will significantly boost earnings for several major constituents. Nvidia was anticipated to lead this group, with projected Q1 2026 EPS growth surging by over **60%**, primarily fueled by its dominant position in AI chip markets [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/streetinsider/article/marketminute-2026-1-28-the-s-and-p-7-magnificent-seven-solidifies-dominance-as-2026-profit-projections-outpace-broader-**market**). Microsoft's Q1 2026 EPS growth was projected around **20%**, driven by its Azure AI services and Copilot integrations [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/streetinsider/article/marketminute-2026-1-28-the-s-and-p-7-magnificent-seven-solidifies-dominance-as-2026-profit-projections-outpace-broader-**market**). Amazon's AWS division was forecast to drive much of its projected **18%** EPS growth through increasing AI infrastructure spending by enterprises [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/streetinsider/article/marketminute-2026-1-28-the-s-and-p-7-magnificent-seven-solidifies-dominance-as-2026-profit-projections-outpace-broader-**market**). Alphabet was expected to achieve approximately **15%** Q1 2026 EPS growth, with Gemini AI integrations being key drivers [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/alphabet-analyst-momentum-price-target-optimism-2026-2601/). Meta Platforms was slated for about **22%** Q1 2026 EPS growth, primarily benefiting from AI-enhanced advertising tools [[^]](https://www.investing.com/analysis/meta-platforms-earnings-preview-what-to-watch-in-q1-2026-report-200679205). Other constituents show solid growth, with AI underpinning the overall outlook. While Apple and Tesla are integral to the Magnificent Seven's overall performance, their immediate Q1 2026 EPS growth projections of **10%** and **8%** respectively were seen by analysts as having less direct and explicit AI revenue stream attribution compared to the other five [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/streetinsider/article/marketminute-2026-1-28-the-s-and-p-7-magnificent-seven-solidifies-dominance-as-2026-profit-projections-outpace-broader-**market**). Nevertheless, AI advancements were implicitly expected to support their long-term growth trajectories [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/streetinsider/article/marketminute-2026-1-28-the-s-and-p-7-magnificent-seven-solidifies-dominance-as-2026-profit-projections-outpace-broader-**market**). The overall consensus highlighted AI as the paramount factor influencing the strong Q1 2026 earnings outlook for these leading technology firms [[^]](https://concallinsights.com/pre-earnings-strategic-outlook-q1-2026-nasdaq-100-earnings-and-**market**-implications/). ## Why Can't Fed Rate Probability Below 3.50% Be Calculated? Probability Data Source | CME FedWatch Tool [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/78109/probability-fed-rate-325-350-2026) | Target Rate Ranges for Calculation | At or below 3.50% (e.g., 2.75-3.00%, 3.25-3.50%) [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/78109/probability-fed-rate-325-350-2026) | Market-Implied Probability (March 2026) | Cannot be determined from available data [[^]](https://rateprobability.com/fed) | **A precise market-implied probability cannot be determined from the research** A precise **market**-implied **probability** cannot be determined from the research. The provided research does not include the specific numerical data detailing **market**-implied probabilities for various Federal Reserve target rate ranges for the March 2026 FOMC meeting. Consequently, a definitive **market**-implied **probability** of the target rate being at or below **3.50%** cannot be calculated based on the information given. Calculating this **probability** requires specific numerical data from reliable sources. To determine the **market**-implied **probability** of the Federal Reserve's target rate being at or below **3.50%** by the March 2026 FOMC meeting, one would typically sum the probabilities for all Federal Funds Target Rate ranges that are **3.50%** or lower, such as **2.75%** to **3.00%** and **3.25%** to **3.50%** [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/78109/**probability**-fed-rate-325-350-2026). While sources indicate that probabilities for specific ranges for 2026 are tracked by MacroMicro, drawing from the CME FedWatch Tool [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/78109/**probability**-fed-rate-325-350-2026), the actual numerical **probability** values for these ranges were absent from the provided research, making it impossible to compute the aggregate **market**-implied **probability**. ## How Do Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley View Tech Stocks for 2026? Goldman Sachs Tech/Growth Recommendation | Overweight (Q4 2025 reports) [[^]](https://am.gs.com/cms-assets/gsam-app/documents/insights/en/2025/us-market-pulse_dec2025.pdf) | Morgan Stanley US Equities Recommendation | Neutral to cautious (Q4 2025 reports) [[^]](https://advisor.morganstanley.com/the-bpcg-group/documents/field/b/bp/bpcg-group/MSWM_Slides_12092025_herreang.pdf) | GS Global Equity Strategy 2026 Title | Tech Tonic — a broadening bull market [[^]](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2025/12/18/75b33420-7873-4c52-84cb-89951d4a1cd2.html) | **Goldman Sachs officially recommends overweighting US Large-Cap Growth and US Technology stocks** Goldman Sachs officially recommends overweighting US Large-Cap Growth and US Technology stocks. Their Q4 2025 and 2026 outlooks, including "Tech Tonic — a broadening bull **market**," advocate an overweight allocation for institutional clients heading into 2026 [[^]](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2025/12/18/75b33420-7873-4c52-84cb-89951d4a1cd2.html). Goldman Sachs anticipates continued strength in these sectors, propelled by innovation and earnings growth, reflecting a favorable perspective [[^]](https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2025/12/18/75b33420-7873-4c52-84cb-89951d4a1cd2.html). This positive outlook is further reinforced by the December 2025 US **Market** Pulse, which underscores strong fundamentals for growth sectors [[^]](https://am.gs.com/cms-assets/gsam-app/documents/insights/en/2025/us-**market**-pulse_dec2025.pdf). Conversely, Morgan Stanley adopts a more cautious stance on US equities for 2026. Their Q4 2025 reports reflect a circumspect strategy, expressing concerns regarding **market** concentration and foreseeing a potentially more moderate growth environment for US equities [[^]](https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_equitymarketmonitor_q42025.pdf). While explicit numerical "overweight" or "underweight" recommendations for specific sectors like "US Large-Cap Growth" or "US Technology" are not detailed, Morgan Stanley's broader **market** commentary implies a neutral to defensive positioning for institutional portfolios [[^]](https://advisor.morganstanley.com/the-bpcg-group/documents/field/b/bp/bpcg-group/MSWM_Slides_12092025_herreang.pdf). They suggest caution about the ongoing outperformance of highly concentrated growth sectors, prioritizing diversification over strong emphasis on particular growth areas in their asset allocation strategies [[^]](https://advisor.morganstanley.com/the-bpcg-group/documents/field/b/bp/bpcg-group/MSWM_Slides_12092025_herreang.pdf). ## What is the Likelihood of Tech Company Breakups by 2026? Google breakup probability | 12% by end of 2025 (prediction market) [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgooglebreakup/google-breakup/kxgooglebreakup-26) | Google structural remedy view | Unlikely, behavioral changes favored (legal experts) [[^]](https://www.adexchanger.com/antitrust/2025-the-year-google-lost-in-court-and-won-anyway/) | Amazon structural remedy goal | FTC actively seeking structural remedy (divestiture) [[^]](https://project-disco.org/competition/is-the-ftc-trying-to-break-up-amazon-a-judge-just-ordered-it-to-say/) | **Legal analysts assign a low probability to Google's structural remedy** Legal analysts assign a low **probability** to Google's structural remedy. Legal and political risk analysts generally assign a low **probability** to a structural remedy, such as forced divestiture or breakup, being ordered in the Department of Justice's (DOJ) antitrust case against Google before April 2026. A prediction **market** indicates a **12%** **probability** of Google undergoing a breakup by the end of 2025 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgooglebreakup/google-breakup/kxgooglebreakup-26). Many legal experts consider a full breakup of Google a "long shot," suggesting remedies are more likely to focus on behavioral changes within Google's operations [[^]](https://www.adexchanger.com/antitrust/2025-the-year-google-lost-in-court-and-won-anyway/). While the DOJ is reportedly interested in a breakup of Google's ad tech business [[^]](http://nordic.businessinsider.com/google-doj-battle-best-worst-scenarios-2024-10), any court-ordered structural remedy would likely face an extensive appeals process, anticipated to last "several years" or extend "into 2026" [[^]](http://nordic.businessinsider.com/google-doj-battle-best-worst-scenarios-2024-10). FTC seeks Amazon structural remedies, but probabilities are unknown. In the separate antitrust case against Amazon, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has explicitly stated its intention to seek a structural remedy, which could include potential divestiture [[^]](https://project-disco.org/competition/is-the-ftc-trying-to-break-up-amazon-a-judge-just-ordered-it-to-say/). However, available research does not provide specific probabilities or timelines from legal or political risk analysts regarding the likelihood of such a structural remedy being ordered by a court in the Amazon case before April 2026 [[^]](https://project-disco.org/competition/is-the-ftc-trying-to-break-up-amazon-a-judge-just-ordered-it-to-say/). A judge has ordered the FTC to clarify the specific remedies it is pursuing, indicating that discussions around potential structural changes are ongoing [[^]](https://project-disco.org/competition/is-the-ftc-trying-to-break-up-amazon-a-judge-just-ordered-it-to-say/). ## What P/E Multiple Does Nasdaq-100 Need to Reach 25,000? Required Forward P/E for Nasdaq-100 at 25,000 | Approximately 32.9x (based on 2026 EPS estimate of $760.00) [[^]](https://siblisresearch.com/data/nasdaq-100-pe-ratio/) | Average Forward P/E (2018-2021 ZIRP period) | Around 27.5x [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe) | Average Forward P/E (2003-2007 pre-GFC period) | Around 19.7x [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe) | **Reaching 25,000 by 2026 requires a 32.9x forward P/E** Reaching 25,000 by 2026 requires a 32.9x forward P/E. Assuming the Nasdaq-100 meets the consensus 2026 full-year Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate of **$760.00** [[^]](https://siblisresearch.com/data/nasdaq-100-pe-ratio/), the index would need to trade at a forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple of approximately 32.9x to attain the 25,000 level. This valuation is derived by dividing the target index value of 25,000 by the estimated 2026 full-year EPS of **$760.00** [[^]](https://siblisresearch.com/data/nasdaq-100-pe-ratio/). This P/E significantly exceeds recent and prior historical averages. Comparing the required 32.9x P/E multiple to past periods reveals it is considerably higher than historical valuations. During the 2018-2021 Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) era, the Nasdaq-100's forward P/E averaged around 27.5x, experiencing notable peaks in late 2020 and early 2021 [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe). Furthermore, the 2003-2007 period preceding the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) saw the index maintain a substantially lower average forward P/E of approximately 19.7x [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe). Therefore, achieving the 25,000 target by 2026 would necessitate the Nasdaq-100 sustaining a valuation multiple that surpasses its average during the recent ZIRP environment and is substantially greater than its valuation before the 2008 financial crisis. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** April 28, 2026 - **Expiration:** May 05, 2026 - **Closes:** April 28, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction?](/markets/financials/what-will-logan-paul-s-pikachu-illustrator-go-for-at-auction/) - [Crude oil (Brent) price on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/financials/oil-gas/crude-oil-brent-price-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?](/markets/financials/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026/) - [Will the official Settlement Price for the Current Auction of CARB Joint Auction #47 strictly exceed $27.94?](/markets/financials/will-the-official-settlement-price-for-the-current-auction-of-carb-joint-auction-47-strictly-exceed-27-94/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXNASDAQ100U-26APR28H1500-T29289.99: NO (Apr 28, 2026) - KXNASDAQ100U-26APR28H1500-T29279.99: NO (Apr 28, 2026) - KXNASDAQ100U-26APR28H1500-T29269.99: NO (Apr 28, 2026) - KXNASDAQ100U-26APR28H1500-T29259.99: NO (Apr 28, 2026) - KXNASDAQ100U-26APR28H1500-T29249.99: NO (Apr 28, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.