# St. Louis vs Detroit

MVE

Updated: April 3, 2026

Category: Exotics

HTML: /markets/exotics/st-louis-vs-detroit/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Detroit to win, with Kevin McGonigle scoring 1+ and Framber Valdez scoring 3+, showing no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Framber Valdez's career shows modest strikeout and swinging-strike rates.** - Michael McGreevy's 2025 splits against right-handed hitters are key.
- Umpire Alex Tosi demonstrated above-average strike zone accuracy in 2023.
- Riley Greene's multi-hit games correlate to Detroit Tigers' victories.
- Player prop markets offer insights despite restricted late betting data.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** and **market** probabilities are both **0.0%**, reflecting no gap, with data lacking for specific correlations.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| yes Detroit,yes Dillon Dingler: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 4+ | 36.0% | 32.2% | Detroit wins, Dillon Dingler achieves 1+, and Framber Valdez achieves 4+. |
| yes Detroit,yes Javier Báez: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 6+ | 22.8% | 19.0% | Detroit wins, Javier Báez achieves 1+, and Framber Valdez achieves 6+. |
| yes Detroit,yes Kevin McGonigle: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 3+ | 45.4% | 42.1% | Detroit wins, Kevin McGonigle achieves 1+, and Framber Valdez achieves 3+. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| yes Detroit,yes Dillon Dingler: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 4+ | 36.0% | 32.2% |
| yes Detroit,yes Javier Báez: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 6+ | 22.8% | 19.0% |
| yes Detroit,yes Kevin McGonigle: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 3+ | 45.4% | 42.1% |
| yes St. Louis,yes Alec Burleson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Detroit,yes Alec Burleson: 2+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Detroit,yes Riley Greene: 2+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Detroit,yes Alec Burleson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Detroit,yes Riley Greene: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 3+ | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes St. Louis,yes Alec Burleson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 4+ | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Detroit,yes Kevin McGonigle: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Detroit,yes Kevin McGonigle: 2+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: April 6, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

A YES resolution occurs if the condition 'yes St. Louis,yes Alec Burleson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+' is met; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opens on April 3, 2026, at 12:46 AM EDT and closes on April 6, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, which is also the projected payout time. The outcome is verified using official data from the NCAA and NFL.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| yes Detroit,yes Alec Burleson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Detroit,yes Kevin McGonigle: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 3+ | 0% | 100% | 45.4% | $10 | $10 |
| yes Detroit,yes Riley Greene: 2+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Detroit,yes Alec Burleson: 2+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes St. Louis,yes Alec Burleson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 4+ | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes St. Louis,yes Alec Burleson: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Detroit,yes Dillon Dingler: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 4+ | 0% | 100% | 36% | $65 | $65 |
| yes Detroit,yes Javier Báez: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 6+ | 0% | 100% | 22.8% | $18 | $18 |
| yes Detroit,yes Riley Greene: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 3+ | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Detroit,yes Kevin McGonigle: 2+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Detroit,yes Kevin McGonigle: 1+,yes Framber Valdez: 5+ | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What Are Framber Valdez's Career Strikeout Metrics?

Career K/9 | 7.4 [[^]](http://www.bbref.com/players/v/valdefr01.shtml) |
Career Swinging-Strike Percentage | 9.3% [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/framber-valdez-664285?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb) |
Projected Team Start | Detroit Tigers home opener [[^]](https://www.mlive.com/tigers/2026/03/framber-valdez-in-line-to-start-home-opener-when-will-verlander-skubal-pitch-in-detroit.html) |

**Framber Valdez’s career metrics show a modest strikeout and swinging-strike rate**

Framber Valdez’s career metrics show a modest strikeout and swinging-strike rate. Anticipated to start for the Detroit Tigers in their home opener [[^]](https://www.mlive.com/tigers/2026/03/framber-valdez-in-line-to-start-home-opener-when-will-verlander-skubal-pitch-in-detroit.html), Valdez maintains a career strikeout rate (K/9) of 7.4, derived from 824 strikeouts across 1007.0 career innings pitched [[^]](http://www.bbref.com/players/v/valdefr01.shtml). His career swinging-strike percentage stands at **9.3%** [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/framber-valdez-664285?stats=career-r-pitching-mlb). However, the available research does not provide specific historical strikeout rates or swinging-strike percentages for Valdez against individual batters in the projected St. Louis Cardinals' 2026 Opening Day lineup, preventing a direct comparison of his performance against this specific opponent.

Direct comparison to betting odds is currently not possible. The St. Louis Cardinals' projected 2026 Opening Day lineup includes players such as Brendan Donovan, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado [[^]](http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-analysis/68292/projecting-the-st-louis-cardinals-2026-opening-day-roster). While a source for betting odds on Valdez's strikeout prop lines (3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5) was identified [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/st-louis-detroit-odds-april-3-2026-2499354), the specific odds and their corresponding implied probabilities were not provided in the research. Consequently, a comprehensive comparison between Valdez's historical strikeout metrics and current betting **market** expectations cannot be made with the information at hand.

## How Did Michael McGreevy Perform Against Right-Handed Hitters in 2025?

GB% vs RHH (2025 Season) | 48.5% [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P) |
FB% vs RHH (2025 Season) | 28.1% [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P) |
BABIP Allowed vs RHH (2025 Season) | .295 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P) |

**Michael McGreevy's 2025 season splits against right-handed hitters offer key insights**

Michael McGreevy's 2025 season splits against right-handed hitters offer key insights. The St. Louis Cardinals pitcher is scheduled to face the Detroit Tigers on April 3, 2026, a lineup featuring prominent right-handed batters like Javier Báez [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/preview/MLB_20260403_STL@DET/). While specific batted ball data for his last five road starts against right-handed hitters is not directly available, his overall performance profile from the 2025 season provides relevant metrics [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P). Against right-handed batters during the 2025 season, McGreevy recorded a ground ball rate (GB%) of approximately **48.5%** and a fly ball rate (FB%) of **28.1%** [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P). His Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) allowed against this hitter type for the same season was.295 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P).

His profile against right-handed batters generally indicates effective pitch contact management. The **48.5%** ground ball rate and **28.1%** fly ball rate against right-handed hitters in 2025 characterize McGreevy's tendency to induce ground balls more often than fly balls from this group [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P). The accompanying.295 BABIP further suggests a reasonable level of effectiveness in limiting hits on balls put in play by right-handed opposition [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P). Although his overall 2025 road splits (against all hitters) showed slightly different figures, with a ground ball rate of **46.2%**, a fly ball rate of **30.5%**, and a BABIP of.302, the analysis focused on his performance against right-handed hitters to directly address the query's specific emphasis [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/splits?position=P).

## How Did Umpire Alex Tosi Perform in the 2023 Season?

Strikeouts per Game | 15.63 (2023 season) [[^]](https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/umpire_card/236936/) |
Walks per Game | 6.54 (2023 season) [[^]](https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/umpire_card/236936/) |
Correct Call % | 91.8% (2023) [[^]](https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/umpire_card/236936/) |

**Umpire Alex Tosi's 2023 metrics indicate above-average strike zone accuracy**

Umpire Alex Tosi's 2023 metrics indicate above-average strike zone accuracy. During the 2023 season, Alex Tosi recorded a strikeout-per-game rate of 15.63 and a walks-per-game rate of 6.54 [[^]](https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/umpire_card/236936/). His called strike zone percentage, or Called Strike %, for 2023 was **44.5%**, which was slightly above the league average of **44.0%** [[^]](https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/umpire_card/236936/).

Tosi's further analysis reveals high accuracy and consistent call rates. For 2023, Alex Tosi achieved a Correct Call % (Balls/Strikes) of **91.8%**, which exceeded the league average of **91.5%** [[^]](https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/umpire_card/236936/). His Consistent Call % for the same season was **88.3%** [[^]](https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/umpire_card/236936/). There was no evidence of any specific umpire bias towards a favored team identified for Alex Tosi in 2023 [[^]](https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/umpire_card/236936/).

## What is Riley Greene's Batting Performance Against Pitcher Handedness?

Detroit Tigers Wins (2023-2024) | 156 wins [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml) |
Riley Greene Multi-Hit Games (2023-2024) | 64 games [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml) |
Riley Greene 2024 Batting Average vs RHP | .294 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml) |

**A direct statistical correlation linking Riley Greene's multi-hit games to Detroit Tigers wins, specifically by opposing starting pitcher handedness, is not readily available**

A direct statistical correlation linking Riley Greene's multi-hit games to Detroit Tigers wins, specifically by opposing starting pitcher handedness, is not readily available. Over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, the Detroit Tigers achieved a total of 156 wins, with 78 wins in 2023 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml) and 78 wins in 2024 [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/tigers/standings/mlb). During this same period, Greene recorded 64 multi-hit performances, which included 27 games with two or more hits in 2023 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml) and 37 such games in 2024 [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/player/riley-greene-94242/game-log?seasonYear=2024&seasonType=regularSeason&perspective=batting&statType=standard). However, detailed game-by-game analysis to isolate these multi-hit games within Tigers victories based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher is not aggregated in the available sources.

Greene consistently bats better against right-handed pitchers across seasons. Split statistics for Greene's general batting performance against left-handed versus right-handed starting pitchers reveal a notable difference. In the 2024 season, Greene maintained a.243 batting average against left-handed pitchers (27 hits in 111 at-bats) compared to a higher.294 batting average against right-handed pitchers (111 hits in 377 at-bats) [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml). This pattern was also evident in 2023, where he hit.233 against left-handers (21 hits in 90 at-bats) and.297 against right-handers (83 hits in 279 at-bats) [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenri03.shtml). While this data suggests a general tendency for Greene to hit more effectively against right-handed pitching, these figures represent overall batting performance and do not specifically link multi-hit games to Tigers' victories.

## What Are Current Player Prop Odds and Projections?

Alec Burleson Total Bases O/U | 0.5 [[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/mlb/props/alec-burleson/total-bases/) |
Alec Burleson Over 0.5 Total Bases Odds | -195 [[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/mlb/props/alec-burleson/total-bases/) |
Framber Valdez Outs Recorded O/U | 17.5-18.5 [[^]](https://www.scoresandodds.com/prop-bets/503797/framber-valdez) |

**Player prop markets offer insights, but late betting data is restricted**

Player prop markets offer insights, but late betting data is restricted. Player prop markets for Alec Burleson's 'Total Bases' and Framber Valdez's 'Outs Recorded' provide insights into expected performance. However, granular, real-time betting data on the direction and volume of money flowing on these discrete player prop markets in the final two hours before a game is not publicly available [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/matchup/369047/picks). Therefore, direct indicators of late-breaking news or sharp money positions are not accessible through this type of data.

Alec Burleson's Total Bases prop consistently favors the over. For Alec Burleson's 'Total Bases' prop, the over/under line is consistently set at 0.5 total bases. BettingPros indicates the Over 0.5 Total Bases with odds of -195 and the Under 0.5 Total Bases with odds of +145 [[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/mlb/props/alec-burleson/total-bases/). Projections further support the Over, with ATS.io projecting 0.81 total bases [[^]](https://ats.io/mlb/props/alec-burleson-10011466-2/317523/) and BettingPros projecting 0.8 total bases, suggesting a **66%** chance for the Over to hit [[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/mlb/props/alec-burleson/total-bases/). These odds and projections collectively imply an expectation for Burleson to record at least one total base.

Framber Valdez's Outs Recorded prop typically ranges between 17.5 and 18.5. Regarding Framber Valdez's 'Outs Recorded' prop, the over/under lines are generally established between 17.5 and 18.5 outs, with ScoresAndOdds listing an Over/Under of 17.5 outs for Valdez [[^]](https://www.scoresandodds.com/prop-bets/503797/framber-valdez). For instance, if the line is 17.5, the Over 17.5 outs might have odds around -125 and the Under 17.5 outs at -105, indicating a slight favoring of Valdez recording 18 or more outs [[^]](https://www.scoresandodds.com/prop-bets/503797/framber-valdez).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 06, 2026
- **Closes:** April 06, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Related Research Reports

- [Milwaukee vs Kansas City](/markets/exotics/milwaukee-vs-kansas-city/)
- [Indiana at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/indiana-at-charlotte/)
- [San Diego vs Boston](/markets/exotics/san-diego-vs-boston/)
- [Indiana at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/indiana-at-charlotte/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20267F3B9E4ED16-96CE5EF74A4: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026D6DD6213825-7FED7B6FD95: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026CCB5148CC84-1195E5E9899: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026735E10E7D93-7DE0683C00F: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20269A023CA7F2D-702B5CA4591: NO (Apr 03, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.