# New York M vs Los Angeles D MVE Updated: April 14, 2026 Category: Exotics HTML: /markets/exotics/new-york-m-vs-los-angeles-d/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect yes Andy Pages: 1+, yes Max Muncy: 1+, yes Shohei Ohtani: 1+, yes Teoscar Hernández: 1+, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Probable starting pitchers for both New York and Los Angeles are identified.** - Batter versus pitcher statistics for April 14, 2026 are unavailable. - Dodger Stadium will host the Mets vs. Dodgers game on April 14, 2026. - The home plate umpire for the upcoming game is currently unidentified. - Confirmed batting orders for both the Mets and Dodgers are available. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** With a **0.0%** gap, the 0c **market** aligns with the **model**'s **0%** due to absent specific game statistics. ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 0.0% (Yes) - Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +0.0pp - Expected Return: +0.0% - R-Score: 0.00 - Total Volume: $1,515 - 24h Volume: $0 - Open Interest: $1,515 - Expiration: April 16, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics Based on the provided chart data, the "New York M vs Los Angeles D" market has shown no price movement since its creation. With only a single data point available, the price has remained static at a 0.0% probability for the "YES" outcome. Consequently, the trend is completely flat, and there have been no price spikes, drops, or any significant movements to analyze. The lack of context is consistent with the lack of price action, as there are no external events reflected in the market's valuation. The most critical observation is the total trading volume, which stands at zero contracts. This indicates a complete absence of trading activity and market participation. Without any trades, there is no established market conviction, and it is impossible to identify any support or resistance levels. The 0.0% price point, while representing the current market valuation, reflects this lack of engagement rather than an active consensus. In summary, the chart suggests a dormant market with an initial sentiment that assigns a negligible probability to the "YES" outcome, a view that remains unchallenged due to the absence of trading. ## Contract Snapshot A YES resolution occurs if Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, and Teoscar Hernández each achieve 1+. A NO resolution is triggered if this specific condition is not met. The market opens on April 13, 2026, closes on April 16, 2026, and has a projected payout on April 16, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT. Outcomes are verified from the league governing the game, specifically citing ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs and nfl.com. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## What are Key Batter Stats vs. Teams for April 14, 2026 Games? Shohei Ohtani Career vs New York Mets | .222 AVG, 2 HR, 4 RBI (Sources [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/shohei-ohtani-vs-mets-stats)) | Kyle Tucker Career vs Los Angeles Dodgers | .265 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI (Source [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/kyle-tucker-against-dodgers)) | Specific Pitcher Information | Not identified for April 14, 2026 games (Sources [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mets-vs-dodgers/2026/04/14/823965/preview)) | **Specific BvP statistics are unavailable for the April 14, 2026 games** Specific BvP statistics are unavailable for the April 14, 2026 games. The probable starting pitchers for the April 14, 2026 games, including both the Mets' starter and the Dodgers' starter, are not named in the provided sources [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mets-vs-dodgers/2026/04/14/823965/preview). Although Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a notable pitcher for the Dodgers [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/player/yoshinobu-yamamoto-808967?season=2025&team=119), the research does not confirm him as the specific starter for their game against the Mets on that date [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mets-vs-dodgers/2026/04/14/823965/preview). Consequently, detailed Batter vs. Pitcher (BvP) statistics and advanced analytical matchups, such as wOBA/ISO against specific opposing pitcher's primary pitch types, cannot be calculated or cited from the available research. General career statistics against specific teams are available for key players. While specific pitcher matchups are unknown, career statistics offer some context for the players involved. Shohei Ohtani, for instance, has a career.222 batting average, with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs in 27 plate appearances over 8 games against the New York Mets as a team [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/shohei-ohtani-vs-mets-stats). Similarly, Kyle Tucker has recorded a.265 career batting average, 2 home runs, and 9 RBIs in 34 plate appearances when facing the Los Angeles Dodgers as a team [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/kyle-tucker-against-dodgers). ## Can Parlay Hit Probability for All Players Be Calculated? Required Data Missing | Individual 'To Record a Hit' prop odds (sources [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/new-york-los-angeles-odds-april-14-2026-2499903)) | Calculation Status | Cannot be calculated with available research [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/new-york-los-angeles-odds-april-14-2026-2499903) | Relevant Game | New York M vs. Los Angeles D (sources [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/new-york-los-angeles-odds-april-14-2026-2499903)) | **All-player hit probability cannot be calculated from current research** All-player hit **probability** cannot be calculated from current research. The parlay-implied **probability** for all players involved in the New York M vs. Los Angeles D game to record a hit could not be determined. This is primarily due to the absence of individual 'To Record a Hit' prop odds for each player from sharp sportsbooks in the provided research. Consequently, a comparison to the current Kalshi **market** price for this specific 'YES' outcome remains unfeasible [[^]](https://www.kalshi.com/). Individual player prop odds are essential for the required calculation. To accurately calculate the parlay-implied **probability** for the 'all-encompassing YES outcome,' specific individual 'To Record a Hit' prop odds for each player in the New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers game are necessary. These odds would allow for conversion into implied probabilities, which could then be multiplied to ascertain the overall parlay **probability**. However, the conducted web research and available sources do not contain this detailed player-specific data [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/new-york-los-angeles-odds-april-14-2026-2499903). While the sources offer general game odds, betting lines, and expert picks for the New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers games, they lack the granular individual player prop odds critical for performing the requested calculation [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/new-york-los-angeles-odds-april-14-2026-2499903). ## Does Dodger Stadium's Environment Alter Base Hit Probability? Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/LAN202604140.shtml) | Game Date | April 14, 2026 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/LAN202604140.shtml) | Venue | Dodger Stadium (venueId=22) [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/LAN202604140.shtml), [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=22) | **The Dodgers will host the Mets on April 14, 2026** The Dodgers will host the Mets on April 14, 2026. The Los Angeles Dodgers are scheduled to play the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium on April 14, 2026 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/LAN202604140.shtml). Among the players expected to participate for the Dodgers is Kyle Tucker [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/kyle-tucker-dons-dodger-blue). Dodger Stadium's specific hitter-friendly characteristics could not be confirmed. While Statcast Venue Park Factors are available for Dodger Stadium (venueId=22), the provided sources did not offer specific data points or descriptive analysis to definitively establish the stadium as 'hitter-friendly' or featuring a 'high BABIP' [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=22). Consequently, the precise influence of these factors on a player's base hit **probability** remains unquantified based on the available information [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=22). Specific weather conditions for the game date are currently unavailable. The research does not provide particular weather details for the scheduled game on April 14, 2026 [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/mlb/weather). Although weather information for an earlier date, April 11, 2026, was found, it is not relevant to this specific game [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/mlb/weather). Therefore, without concrete data on stadium factors or significant weather conditions such as wind direction or humidity, it is not possible to identify players whose **probability** of a base hit would be materially altered based on these criteria. ## Who is the Home Plate Umpire for Mets vs. Dodgers April 14, 2026? Assigned Home Plate Umpire | Not identified in provided sources (Sources [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814943/mets-dodgers)) | Umpire Historical Strike-Zone Tendencies | Cannot be determined without umpire identity (Sources [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814943/mets-dodgers)) | Hitter Performance Splits | Not ascertainable without umpire identity (Sources [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814943/mets-dodgers)) | **The assigned home plate umpire for the game remains unidentified** The assigned home plate umpire for the game remains unidentified. The available web research does not specify the identity of the home plate umpire for the New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers game scheduled for April 14, 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814943/mets-dodgers). One source [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/LAN202604130.shtml) was found to pertain to a different date, April 13, 2026, and thus did not provide the necessary umpire information for the requested game. Historical strike-zone analysis is not possible without umpire data. Due to the absence of identified home plate umpire information in the research, it is not feasible to determine their historical strike-zone tendencies, including K-rate and BB-rate when compared to the league average. Similarly, an analysis of specific hitters' performance splits against an unusually pitcher-friendly or hitter-friendly zone cannot be conducted without knowing the assigned umpire, given the current information [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814943/mets-dodgers). The consulted sources primarily provided general game previews, summaries, and real-time coverage details for the Mets-Dodgers matchup [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814943/mets-dodgers). ## What are the confirmed Mets and Dodgers batting orders for April 14, 2026? Mets 3rd Batter | Francisco Lindor (SS) [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mets-vs-dodgers/2026/04/14/823965/preview) | Dodgers Leadoff Batter | Mookie Betts (2B) [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mets-vs-dodgers/2026/04/14/823965/preview) | Dodgers 2nd Batter | Shohei Ohtani (DH) [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mets-vs-dodgers/2026/04/14/823965/preview) | **New York's April 14 lineup features Nimmo leading off** New York's April 14 lineup features Nimmo leading off. The confirmed batting order for the New York Mets on April 14, 2026, places Brandon Nimmo (CF) at the leadoff spot, followed by Starling Marte (RF) batting second, and Francisco Lindor (SS) at third. The middle of the lineup features Pete Alonso (1B) batting fourth, Jeff McNeil (2B) at fifth, and J.D. Martinez (DH) at sixth. The Mets' order concludes with Brett Baty (3B) at seventh, Harrison Bader (LF) at eighth, and Francisco Álvarez (C) batting ninth [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mets-vs-dodgers/2026/04/14/823965/preview). Los Angeles's lineup for April 14 places Betts first. For the Los Angeles Dodgers' game on the same date, the batting order is set with Mookie Betts (2B) leading off, Shohei Ohtani (DH) batting second, and Freddie Freeman (1B) at the third position. Will Smith (C) is slated for fourth, Max Muncy (3B) fifth, and Teoscar Hernández (RF) sixth. The bottom three spots are filled by James Outman (CF) at seventh, Gavin Lux (SS) at eighth, and Kiké Hernández (LF) batting ninth [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mets-vs-dodgers/2026/04/14/823965/preview). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 16, 2026 - **Closes:** April 16, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [Portland at Phoenix](/markets/exotics/portland-at-phoenix/) - [Miami at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/miami-at-charlotte/) - [Boston at New York](/markets/exotics/boston-at-new-york/) - [East Play-In](/markets/exotics/east-play-in/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S202621AF182429D-C085DE20646: NO (Apr 14, 2026) - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026151C91D18C2-E9815ABFD0D: NO (Apr 14, 2026) - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026D845C31900E-51CB1540E41: NO (Apr 14, 2026) - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20264487BF4D546-CF3F6DD16B5: NO (Apr 14, 2026) - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20264487BF4D546-4BD075ADEFB: NO (Apr 14, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.