# Miami vs New York Y

MVE

Updated: April 3, 2026

Category: Exotics

HTML: /markets/exotics/miami-vs-new-york-y/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect yes Aaron Judge: 1+,no Miami wins by over 2.5 runs, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Marlins and Yankees pitchers face strong right-handed hitters.** - Yankees' high-leverage relievers are available and well-rested.
- Significant west-southwest winds are expected at Yankee Stadium.
- Edwards and Lopez consistently secure starting Marlins' lineup positions.
- No immediate line movement data or public betting insights available.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** estimates **0.5%** **probability** versus 0c **market**, implying a +**0.5%** gap, with significant winds expected at Yankee Stadium.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,no Miami wins by over 2.5 runs | 56.9% | 60.5% | Aaron Judge is a consistent hitter, and Miami's victory margin is expected to be small. |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.5% | Aaron Judge is expected to hit, and New York Y is favored to win by over 1.5 runs. |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,yes Miami wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.4% | Aaron Judge is projected to perform offensively, even if Miami secures a modest victory. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,no Miami wins by over 2.5 runs | 56.9% | 60.5% |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,yes Miami wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| yes Xavier Edwards: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Cody Bellinger: 2+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Cody Bellinger: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| no Otto Lopez: 2+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| no Otto Lopez: 2+,no Miami wins by over 3.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| no Otto Lopez: 2+,no Miami wins by over 2.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Giancarlo Stanton: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Aaron Judge: 2+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,no New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Trent Grisham: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 1+,no New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Aaron Judge: 2+,no New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| yes Cody Bellinger: 2+,yes New York Y wins by over 3.5 runs | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: April 6, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, the price for this market has remained entirely static since its inception. The market opened at a 0.0% probability for a "YES" outcome and has not deviated from this level. Consequently, the overall trend is flat, with no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. The price range is nonexistent, as the market has only ever registered a price of 0.0%.

The trading volume provides a clear explanation for the lack of price action. With a total of zero contracts traded, this market is completely illiquid and inactive. The absence of any trading volume indicates that no participants have engaged with the market to establish a price based on collective belief or information. This lack of participation means there is no market conviction to observe, as no capital has been risked to support any particular viewpoint.

Due to the static price and zero volume, it is not possible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels. The price is currently at the absolute floor of 0.0%, which could be considered a trivial support level, but it has not been tested by any trading activity. The chart suggests that the initial market sentiment assigns a zero percent probability to a "YES" resolution. However, it's crucial to note that this sentiment is not confirmed by any trading; it simply reflects the market's starting point in the absence of any engagement.

## Contract Snapshot

For this specific market contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if Aaron Judge scores 1 or more, AND the New York Y team wins by over 1.5 runs; otherwise, it resolves "No". The outcome is verified by "the league governing the game", with reference to NCAA and NFL links. Trading opens on April 2, 2026, at 8:40 PM EDT, closes on April 6, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, and the projected payout is at the time of market closure.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| yes Xavier Edwards: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Cody Bellinger: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,yes Miami wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Trent Grisham: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,no New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Giancarlo Stanton: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| no Otto Lopez: 2+,no Miami wins by over 2.5 runs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Cody Bellinger: 2+,yes New York Y wins by over 3.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,no Miami wins by over 2.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 56.9% | $22 | $22 |
| no Otto Lopez: 2+,no Miami wins by over 3.5 runs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Cody Bellinger: 2+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Aaron Judge: 1+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Aaron Judge: 2+,no New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 1+,no New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Aaron Judge: 2+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| no Otto Lopez: 2+,yes New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## How Do Marlins' and Yankees' Pitchers Match Against Elite Hitters?

Eury Pérez Slider Whiff Rate | 38.3% [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/eury-perez-691587?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) |
Will Warren Slider Whiff Rate | 34.6% [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/will-warren-701542?stats=statcast-r-histograms-mlb) |
Aaron Judge Hard-Hit Rate | 57.0% [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-592450?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb) |

**Eury Pérez and Will Warren face potent right-handed sluggers**

Eury Pérez and Will Warren face potent right-handed sluggers. The probable starting pitchers for the April 3, 2026 game between the Miami Marlins and New York Yankees are Eury Pérez for the Marlins and Will Warren for the Yankees, both right-handed [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/marlins-vs-yankees/2026/04/03/823568/preview), [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/preview/MLB_20260403_MIA@NYY/), [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/NYA202604030.shtml), [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814786/marlins-yankees). A critical factor in their performance will be the effectiveness of their breaking balls when confronting powerful right-handed batters such as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, whose hitting profiles demonstrate significant power against these pitch types.

Pitchers feature high-spin breaking balls with notable whiff rates. Eury Pérez, a right-handed pitcher, throws a slider with an average spin rate of 2471 rpm and an impressive **38.3%** whiff rate. His curveball also registers a high spin rate of 2496 rpm with a **30.2%** whiff rate [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/eury-perez-691587?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb). Pérez’s slider has limited left-handed batters to a.206 batting average [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/eury-perez-691587?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb). Will Warren, also a right-handed pitcher, utilizes a slider that averages 2420 rpm with a **34.6%** whiff rate, and a cutter with a 2384 rpm spin rate and a **22.2%** whiff rate [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/will-warren-701542?stats=statcast-r-histograms-mlb). Warren's slider has been effective against left-handed batters, holding them to a.182 batting average [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/will-warren-701542?stats=statcast-r-histograms-mlb).

Judge and Stanton exhibit elite power against breaking pitches. Aaron Judge demonstrates exceptional power, evidenced by a **57.0%** hard-hit rate (ranking in the top **1%** of MLB) and a 15.6-degree average launch angle [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-592450?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb). He maintains a **54.3%** hard-hit rate against right-handed sliders and a **45.1%** hard-hit rate against curveballs [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-592450?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb). Giancarlo Stanton similarly possesses elite power, with a **55.4%** hard-hit rate (also top **1%** in MLB) and a 14.8-degree average launch angle [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/giancarlo-stanton-519317?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb). Stanton is particularly effective against right-handed sliders, posting a **55.1%** hard-hit rate [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/giancarlo-stanton-519317?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb). The high hard-hit rates and optimal launch angles of Judge and Stanton suggest a significant challenge for both Pérez and Warren, necessitating precise pitch location to prevent extra-base hits.

## Are Yankees and Marlins High-Leverage Relievers Currently Available?

Yankees Most Active Reliever | Ian Hamilton: 35 pitches across 3 games [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/playbyplay/_/gameId/401814777) |
Marlins Most Active Reliever | Tanner Scott: 31 pitches across 2 games [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA202603300.shtml) |
Reported Fatigue Indicators | No objective signs of velocity dips or command issues reported [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814786/marlins-yankees) |

**New York's high-leverage relievers are available with no significant fatigue**

New York's high-leverage relievers are available with no significant fatigue. Workload management for the Yankees' bullpen was reasonable across their last three games, which included two wins against the Mariners on April 1, 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/playbyplay/_/gameId/401814777) and one win on April 2, 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com.au/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814777). Closer Clay Holmes made two appearances, throwing 10 pitches on April 2 [[^]](https://www.espn.com.au/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814777) and 10 pitches on April 1 [[^]](https://africa.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814762), for a total of 20 pitches over 2.0 innings. Setup man Jonathan Loáisiga also pitched in two games, accumulating 25 pitches across 2.0 innings from 11 pitches on April 2 [[^]](https://www.espn.com.au/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814777) and 14 pitches on April 1 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/playbyplay/_/gameId/401814777). Ian Hamilton was the most active, appearing in all three games with 13 pitches on April 2 [[^]](https://www.espn.com.au/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814777), 11 pitches on April 1 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/playbyplay/_/gameId/401814777), and 11 pitches on April 1 [[^]](https://africa.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814762), totaling 35 pitches over 2.0 innings. Despite pitching on three consecutive days, Hamilton's overall pitch counts remained low, and no objective signs of fatigue, such as velocity dips or command issues, were indicated.

Miami's key relievers are well-rested and appear fully available. The Marlins' high-leverage relievers show good rest levels based on their appearances over their prior three games: a 9-2 win against the White Sox on March 31, 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814751), a 3-2 loss to the White Sox on March 30, 2026 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA202603300.shtml), and a 4-3 win against the Rockies on March 29, 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814724). Key left-handed reliever Tanner Scott pitched in two of these games, throwing 18 pitches on March 30 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA202603300.shtml) and 13 pitches on March 29 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814724), accumulating 31 pitches across 2.0 innings. Bryan Hoeing appeared in two games, with 12 pitches on March 31 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814751) and 10 pitches on March 30 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA202603300.shtml), totaling 22 pitches over 2.0 innings. Anthony Bender also pitched in two games, totaling 24 pitches across 2.0 innings from 11 pitches on March 30 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA202603300.shtml) and 13 pitches on March 29 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401814724). None of the Marlins' main relievers pitched on three consecutive days, and all recorded relatively low pitch counts, indicating full availability. The provided data did not contain information on velocity dips or command issues that would suggest fatigue.

## How Do Winds and Yankee Stadium Factors Impact the Game?

Forecast Wind Speed | 10-15 mph [[^]](https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/884337/Yankee+Stadium) |
Forecast Wind Direction | West-southwest [[^]](https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/884337/Yankee+Stadium), [[^]](https://www.northjersey.com/story/sports/mlb/yankees/2026/04/02/yankees-opening-day-2026-tickets-time-tv-weather-lineups/89433752007/) |
Yankee Stadium HR Park Factor | 109 (9% above league average) [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=3313) |

**The April 3, 2026 game at Yankee Stadium expects significant west-southwest winds**

The April 3, 2026 game at Yankee Stadium expects significant west-southwest winds. The game-time forecast for the New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins matchup anticipates winds of approximately 10-15 mph [[^]](https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/884337/Yankee+Stadium). These winds are expected to originate from the west-southwest [[^]](https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/884337/Yankee+Stadium), [[^]](https://www.northjersey.com/story/sports/mlb/yankees/2026/04/02/yankees-opening-day-2026-tickets-time-tv-weather-lineups/89433752007/). Such a wind direction at Yankee Stadium would typically result in a component blowing out towards right-center field, potentially aiding batted balls hit in that direction [[^]](https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/884337/Yankee+Stadium).

Historically, Yankee Stadium significantly favors home runs and extra-base hits. According to Baseball Savant, the stadium has a multi-year park factor of 109 for home runs (HR), indicating it is **9%** above the league average for home run production [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=3313). Similarly, for extra-base hits (XBH), the stadium boasts a park factor of 104, signifying it is **4%** above the league average [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=3313). This data suggests the stadium inherently favors offensive power outcomes [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=3313).

The forecasted winds could further amplify Yankee Stadium's inherent power bias. The anticipated winds blowing out to right-center field could enhance the stadium's historical tendency to produce power outcomes for the specific game on April 3, 2026, potentially increasing the likelihood of deep fly balls carrying for extra bases or home runs [[^]](https://windy.app/forecast2/spot/884337/Yankee+Stadium), [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=3313).

## What Are Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez's Batting Order and Roles?

Xavier Edwards Batting Order | 9th (last 10 games) [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/41326/xavier-edwards) |
Otto Lopez Batting Order | 8th (last 10 games) [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/player/otto-lopez-94234/game-log?seasonYear=2026) |
Primary Platoon Role | Edwards (LHH) vs RHP; Lopez (RHH) vs LHP [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/marlins) |

**Edwards and Lopez have consistently secured starting positions in the Marlins' lineup**

Edwards and Lopez have consistently secured starting positions in the Marlins' lineup. Over his last 10 games leading up to April 3, 2026, Xavier Edwards consistently started for the Miami Marlins, primarily at second base and batting ninth in the order. During this period, Edwards averaged between 3 and 4 plate appearances per game [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/41326/xavier-edwards). Similarly, Otto Lopez has been a regular fixture in the lineup over his last 10 games, predominantly playing shortstop and batting eighth, also averaging 3-4 plate appearances per game [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/player/otto-lopez-94234/game-log?seasonYear=2026). Both players have secured positions in the Marlins' middle infield [[^]](http://tigers.mlb.com/news/otto-lopez-xavier-edwards-make-marlins-middle-infield).

A clear platoon strategy dictates the roles of Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez. As a left-handed hitter, Edwards typically starts against right-handed pitchers [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/marlins). Conversely, Otto Lopez, a right-handed hitter, is generally utilized as a starter when the opposing team fields a left-handed pitcher [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/marlins). This consistent batting order and documented platoon lineups strongly suggest their roles are determined by the opposing pitcher's handedness, though specific manager statements regarding their usage were not explicitly found [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/marlins).

## What is the Line Movement for Marlins vs. Yankees on April 3, 2026?

Yankees Run Line | -1.5 (-118 odds) [[^]](http://foxsports.com/mlb/miami-marlins-vs-new-york-yankees-apr-03-2026-game-boxscore-94822?tab=odds) |
Marlins Run Line | +1.5 (-102 odds) [[^]](http://foxsports.com/mlb/miami-marlins-vs-new-york-yankees-apr-03-2026-game-boxscore-94822?tab=odds) |
Game Total (Over/Under) | 8.5 runs (-110 odds) [[^]](http://foxsports.com/mlb/miami-marlins-vs-new-york-yankees-apr-03-2026-game-boxscore-94822?tab=odds) |

**Future game lacks immediate line movement data or public betting insights**

Future game lacks immediate line movement data or public betting insights.
For the Miami Marlins versus New York Yankees game scheduled for April 3, 2026, specific line movement during the final four hours before first pitch and detailed public betting percentages are not yet available because the game is in the future. Current odds indicate the New York Yankees as a -1.5 run line favorite with odds of -118, and the Marlins are +1.5 with odds of -102 [[^]](http://foxsports.com/mlb/miami-marlins-vs-new-york-yankees-apr-03-2026-game-boxscore-94822?tab=odds). The game total (Over/Under) is set at 8.5 runs, with odds of -110 for both the Over and Under [[^]](http://foxsports.com/mlb/miami-marlins-vs-new-york-yankees-apr-03-2026-game-boxscore-94822?tab=odds).

Line movement typically occurs closer to game time as **market** activity increases.
Significant line movement, including shifts in the run line and game total, often occurs closer to game time as betting volume increases and professional money enters the **market** [[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/betting/news/how-sportsbooks-set-betting-lines/06bbb4dfdd9b14f04abed737). Sharp offshore sportsbooks continuously adjust their betting lines in response to **market** activity, breaking news, injuries, and weather conditions [[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/betting/news/how-sportsbooks-set-betting-lines/06bbb4dfdd9b14f04abed737). Without observed line movement data for the final hours before this future game, it is not possible to determine if there will be a significant deviation from public betting percentages, which reflect where the majority of individual bets are being placed [[^]](https://pregame.com/game-center). Specific public betting percentages for this game are not yet available from reporting sources [[^]](https://pregame.com/game-center).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 06, 2026
- **Closes:** April 06, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Related Research Reports

- [Milwaukee vs Kansas City](/markets/exotics/milwaukee-vs-kansas-city/)
- [Indiana at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/indiana-at-charlotte/)
- [San Diego vs Boston](/markets/exotics/san-diego-vs-boston/)
- [Indiana at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/indiana-at-charlotte/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20267F3B9E4ED16-96CE5EF74A4: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026D6DD6213825-7FED7B6FD95: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026CCB5148CC84-1195E5E9899: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026735E10E7D93-7DE0683C00F: NO (Apr 03, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20269A023CA7F2D-702B5CA4591: NO (Apr 03, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.