# Combo MVE Updated: April 3, 2026 Category: Exotics HTML: /markets/exotics/combo/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect yes TB Lightning,yes DAL Stars, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Jeremy Swayman demonstrates superior recent goaltending performance for the Bruins.** - Detailed Stanley Cup futures odds data is currently unavailable. - Colorado Avalanche project a favorable path through early playoff rounds. - A positive goal differential gap indicates higher risk of negative regression. - Specific playoff matchups and detailed player data remain undetermined. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** At 32c, the **market** (**31.6%**) prices higher than the **25.3%** **model** estimate, despite favorable Avalanche projections. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | yes TB Lightning,yes DAL Stars | 31.6% | 25.3% | The evidence shows both Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars have goaltenders performing above expected and no significant key skater injuries, supporting a higher probability for them to win, while the counterpoint is that their goaltenders are not identified as superior compared to all others in the provided research. | | yes BOS Bruins,yes DAL Stars | 0.0% | 0.7% | Jeremy Swayman's superior goaltending for Boston and the absence of key skater injuries for both teams provide strong positive indicators, shifting the probability higher than the 0.0% market anchor, which implies the outcome is extremely unlikely without considering these factors. | | yes TB Lightning,yes COL Avalanche | 0.0% | 0.5% | The evidence, while high-quality, presents neutral information regarding the combined outcome of TB Lightning and COL Avalanche winning, primarily highlighting a superior goaltender for another team (Boston) and confirming no key injuries for the teams in question, which does not shift probability from the debiased anchor of 0.0%. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | yes TB Lightning,yes DAL Stars | 31.6% | 25.3% | | yes BOS Bruins,yes DAL Stars | 0.0% | 0.7% | | yes TB Lightning,yes COL Avalanche | 0.0% | 0.5% | | yes BOS Bruins,yes COL Avalanche | 0.0% | 0.5% | - Expiration: April 18, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market, "Combo," shows no price history or discernible trend, as it has only one recorded data point. The price has remained static at its opening value of 31.6% YES probability. Consequently, there have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. The market's price action is completely flat, reflecting a lack of trading activity since its inception. The total volume is extremely low at just 30 contracts traded. This indicates very limited participation and a lack of market conviction around the initial price. With only a single price point, it is impossible to identify any support or resistance levels. The chart suggests that market sentiment is untested; while the opening price implies traders see a roughly one-in-three chance of a "YES" outcome, this assessment has not been challenged or validated by subsequent trading. The market is effectively inactive. ## Contract Snapshot This Kalshi market resolves "Yes" if the specific outcome "BOS Bruins, COL Avalanche" occurs and is verified by the leagues governing the game (NCAA Football and NFL). It resolves "No" if this condition is not met or verified by the specified leagues. The market opens on April 3, 2026, at 12:23 PM EDT, closes on April 18, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, with the projected payout occurring at the market's close. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | yes TB Lightning,yes DAL Stars | 0% | 100% | 31.6% | $30 | $30 | | yes BOS Bruins,yes DAL Stars | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | yes BOS Bruins,yes COL Avalanche | 0% | 21.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | yes TB Lightning,yes COL Avalanche | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 | ## Which Goaltender Has Superior Performance and What are Key Skater Injury Updates? Jeremy Swayman GSAx | +5.1 (over last 10 games) [[^]](https://www.moneypuck.com/goalies.htm), [[^]](https://hockeygraphs.com/nhl?pos=G&view=metrics) | Jeremy Swayman HDSV% | .895 (over last 10 games) [[^]](https://www.moneypuck.com/goalies.htm), [[^]](https://hockeygraphs.com/nhl?pos=G&view=metrics) | Key Skater Injuries (non-top 6F/4D) | None 'day-to-day' or worse for specified teams [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-april-2-2026), [[^]](https://nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-april-1-2026) | **Jeremy Swayman excels in recent goaltending performance** Jeremy Swayman excels in recent goaltending performance. Among the listed starting goaltenders, Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins demonstrates the superior combination of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and High-Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%) over his last 10 games. Swayman recorded a GSAx of +5.1 and an HDSV% of.895 during this period and is confirmed as the starter for April 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.moneypuck.com/goalies.htm), [[^]](https://hockeygraphs.com/nhl?pos=G&view=metrics), [[^]](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-04-03). Other goalies present varied performance over their last ten games. In comparison, Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning) posted a GSAx of +4.5 and an HDSV% of.880. Jake Oettinger (Dallas Stars) had a GSAx of +3.2 and an HDSV% of.865, while Alexandar Georgiev (Colorado Avalanche) recorded a GSAx of +2.8 and an HDSV% of.850 over their respective last 10 games [[^]](https://www.moneypuck.com/goalies.htm), [[^]](https://hockeygraphs.com/nhl?pos=G&view=metrics). No relevant key skaters are currently listed with injuries. For the Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, or Tampa Bay Lightning, no key skaters outside the top-six forwards or top-four defensemen are presently listed as 'day-to-day' or worse, according to available status reports [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-april-2-2026), [[^]](https://nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-april-1-2026). Although Brandon Hagel of the Tampa Bay Lightning is listed as 'day-to-day' as of April 1, 2026, he is a top-six forward and therefore does not meet the criteria of being outside the top-six forwards or top-four defensemen [[^]](https://nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-april-1-2026). ## Why is Detailed Stanley Cup Futures Odds Data Unavailable? Teams for Analysis | Specific 'four teams' not identified in prompt (Research Findings) [[^]](http://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/hockey-stanley-cup-odds/) | Proprietary Betting Metrics | Percentage of handle vs. tickets not publicly available [[^]](http://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/hockey-stanley-cup-odds/) | Historical Odds Shifts | Comprehensive historical data from playoff start for all teams not available [[^]](http://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/hockey-stanley-cup-odds/) | **Specific teams and proprietary data prevent answering the research question** Specific teams and proprietary data prevent answering the research question. A direct answer regarding which of four unspecified teams saw the most significant positive shift in Stanley Cup futures odds, or if this correlates to a higher percentage of handle versus tickets, cannot be provided. This is primarily due to the prompt not identifying the specific teams for analysis. Furthermore, public sources generally do not disclose proprietary betting metrics like the percentage of money (handle) compared to the percentage of bets (tickets) for individual teams from sportsbooks such as Pinnacle and Circa Sports [[^]](http://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/hockey-stanley-cup-odds/). Publicly available sources do not offer the required historical data. While available sources offer general Stanley Cup odds for the 2026 season, including overall favorites and betting lines, they typically present current or snapshot odds rather than comprehensive historical data that tracks shifts from the exact start of the playoffs for all potential teams [[^]](http://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nhl/hockey-stanley-cup-odds/). Information from Pinnacle and Circa Sports, although providing previews or current odds, does not publicize detailed historical odds movement or the specific handle-to-ticket ratios required for this analysis [[^]](https://www.pinnacle.com/betting-resources/en/hockey/nhl-stanley-cup-betting-preview-2025-2026-odds-futures). To accurately answer the question, specific teams would need to be identified, and access to proprietary betting data detailing historical odds movements and handle-versus-tickets breakdown from the beginning of the playoffs would be necessary, which is not publicly available. ## Do Colorado Avalanche Have Favorable Playoff Path in 2025-26? Avalanche 5-on-5 xGD | +32.5 [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm) | Avalanche Combined Special Teams % | 112.6% [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm) | Vegas Golden Knights 5-on-5 xGD | -8.9 [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm) | **Colorado Avalanche project a favorable path through early playoff rounds** Colorado Avalanche project a favorable path through early playoff rounds. Based on projected playoff brackets for the 2025-26 NHL season, the Colorado Avalanche project a particularly favorable path, holding substantial statistical advantages over their most probable first and second-round opponents [[^]](http://more.bleacherreport.com/articles/25413025-updated-2026-nhl-playoffs-bracket-predictions-2-weeks-postseason). As a top seed, the Avalanche could anticipate facing teams with statistically weaker profiles, such as the Vegas Golden Knights in the first round and potentially the Edmonton Oilers or Dallas Stars in the second round [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/48331880/nhl-playoffs-bracket-standings-2026-wild-card-bracket-games-matchups). Avalanche show strong statistical superiority in expected goal differential and special teams. The Colorado Avalanche are projected to have a 5-on-5 expected goal differential (xGD) of approximately +32.5 and a combined special teams percentage (Power Play % + Penalty Kill %) of about **112.6%** for the 2025-26 season [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm). In contrast, their probable opponents generally exhibit lower projected statistical standings. For instance, the Vegas Golden Knights could have an xGD around -8.9 and a combined special teams percentage of **99.1%** [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm). The Edmonton Oilers might exhibit an xGD around +15.1 and a combined special teams of **107.0%** [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm), while the Dallas Stars could be around +10.2 xGD and **103.0%** combined special teams [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm). Analysis suggests Avalanche's statistical advantages provide a strong early-round edge. This analysis highlights the Avalanche's projected superiority in underlying offensive and defensive metrics, as well as special teams play, suggesting a more advantageous statistical landscape in the early rounds of the playoffs. This assessment is based on overall season projections for 2025-26, as specific head-to-head regular season matchup statistics are not extensively detailed in the provided sources [[^]](http://more.bleacherreport.com/articles/25413025-updated-2026-nhl-playoffs-bracket-predictions-2-weeks-postseason). ## How to Assess NHL Teams for Regression Risk and Line Reliance? Highest Regression Risk Indicator | Largest positive gap between a team's actual 5-on-5 goal differential and its expected goal differential (xGD) [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm), [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php) | Reliance on Single Line Indicator | Proportion of total offensive production contributed by primary scoring line [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=nhl+team+stats+5x5+goals+2025-2026), [[^]](https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2025-26/) | Required Data for Analysis | Granular team and individual player statistics, aggregated for line-level insights [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=nhl+team+stats+5x5+goals+2025-2026), [[^]](https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2025-26/) | **A positive goal differential gap indicates higher regression risk** A positive goal differential gap indicates higher regression risk. To identify which team faces the highest risk of negative regression, one should analyze the positive gap between their actual 5-on-5 goal differential and their expected goal differential (xGD). A larger positive gap indicates that a team has been outperforming its underlying expected statistics, suggesting a higher likelihood of regression towards the mean in future performance [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm), [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php), [[^]](https://medium.com/@noahowsh/the-nhls-most-unpredictable-teams-in-2026-9e138037614a). This metric is calculated by comparing actual 5-on-5 goals for minus goals against with expected 5-on-5 goals for minus expected goals against (xGF-xGA). Detailed team statistics, including 5-on-5 goal differentials and expected goal differentials, can be found on resources such as Moneypuck.com [[^]](https://moneypuck.com/teams.htm) and Natural Stat Trick [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php). Heavy reliance on one line increases team vulnerability. To determine the team most reliant on a single forward line for its total offensive production, one must examine the distribution of goal scoring and offensive contributions across a team's different lines. This involves identifying what percentage of a team's total goals or offensive output originates from its primary forward unit [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=nhl+team+stats+5x5+goals+2025-2026), [[^]](https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2025-26/). Teams with a disproportionately high percentage of their scoring coming from one line are considered more reliant and potentially vulnerable if that line experiences slumps, injuries, or strong defensive matchups. Analyzing this typically requires granular data beyond simple team totals, looking at individual player contributions and how they aggregate into lines. Sources like StatMuse [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=nhl+team+stats+5x5+goals+2025-2026) and Quanthockey [[^]](https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2025-26/) offer team and individual player statistics that can form the basis for such an analysis. ## Can NHL Playoff Matchups and Player Data Be Determined? Statistically Even Matchups | Not available for specific teams [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/2026-nhl-playoff-picture-standings-schedule-bracket-seedings-stanley-cup-playoff/) | Goaltender Injury Status | Not available [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401803452) | Goaltender GSAx (Last 5 Games) | Not available [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401803452) | **The research could not fully address the detailed request** The research could not fully address the detailed request. The investigation was unable to identify the most statistically even matchup for specific teams, nor could it provide current injury status or recent performance (last 5 games GSAx) for an opposing team's starting goaltender. A comprehensive answer was not feasible from the given sources due to a lack of the necessary detailed information. Available sources primarily focused on the general 2026 NHL playoff picture, including standings, bracket projections, and overall team analysis [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/2026-nhl-playoff-picture-standings-schedule-bracket-seedings-stanley-cup-playoff/). Sources lacked specific data for detailed matchup analysis. While general playoff information was present, these sources did not offer the granular statistical breakdowns required to pinpoint a 'most statistically even matchup' among unspecified teams. Furthermore, the web research did not contain specific information regarding individual players' current injury status or advanced goaltending metrics like Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) for recent games [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401803452). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 18, 2026 - **Closes:** April 18, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [Milwaukee vs Kansas City](/markets/exotics/milwaukee-vs-kansas-city/) - [Indiana at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/indiana-at-charlotte/) - [San Diego vs Boston](/markets/exotics/san-diego-vs-boston/) - [Indiana at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/indiana-at-charlotte/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S20266C5B8D84837-9CEF95C0777: NO (Apr 03, 2026) - KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S20267B662188113-EACB55456E0: NO (Apr 03, 2026) - KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S202684C72D78C8B-B4E3D8EDE6F: NO (Apr 03, 2026) - KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S2026158238610AD-6AC9F9BC671: NO (Apr 03, 2026) - KXMVESPORTSMULTIGAMEEXTENDED-S202617C3E8DF853-9FE4310B5C8: NO (Apr 03, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.