# Colorado at Calgary MVE Updated: April 14, 2026 Category: Exotics HTML: /markets/exotics/colorado-at-calgary/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the Colorado Avalanche to win, New Jersey not to win by over 1.5 goals, Winnipeg not to win by over 1.5 goals, and over 5.5 total goals to be scored, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Confirmed starting goaltenders are set for Avalanche and Flames.** - Professional money shows significant betting interest on the Avalanche. - Avalanche show strong power play efficiency in their last ten games. - Colorado's lineup remained stable, indicating no strategic shifts. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **25.8%** for Colorado vs 20c **market**, implying 5.0x payout, supported by sharp money and strong power play. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | yes COL Avalanche,no New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals,no Winnipeg wins by over 1.5 goals,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 4.5 goals scored | 20.2% | 25.8% | This market outcome predicts a Colorado Avalanche victory and a high-scoring game with over 5.5 goals. | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 25.8% (Yes) - Market Probability: 20.2% (Yes) - Yes refers to: yes COL Avalanche,no New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals,no Winnipeg wins by over 1.5 goals,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 4.5 goals scored - Edge: +5.6pp - Expected Return: +28.0% - R-Score: 0.56 - Total Volume: $23 - 24h Volume: $0 - Open Interest: $23 - Expiration: April 29, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics No historical price data available. ## Contract Snapshot The provided content does not specify the exact conditions that trigger a 'YES' or 'NO' resolution for the "Colorado at Calgary" market. Outcomes will be verified by the NCAA Football and NFL leagues. The market opens on April 14, 2026, at 2:37 am EDT, closes on April 28, 2026, at 9:00 pm EDT, with a projected payout on the same closing date. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | yes COL Avalanche,no New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals,no Winnipeg wins by over 1.5 goals,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 4.5 goals scored | 0% | 100% | 20.2% | $23 | $23 | ## What are the Confirmed Lineup Updates for Avalanche vs. Flames? Avalanche Starting Goalie | Alexandar Georgiev [[^]](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-04-14) | Flames Starting Goalie | Jacob Markstrom [[^]](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-04-14) | Cale Makar Status | Officially in the lineup [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/preview/NHL_20260414_COL@CGY/) | **Starting goaltenders for Avalanche and Flames are now confirmed** Starting goaltenders for Avalanche and Flames are now confirmed. For the game between the Colorado Avalanche and the Calgary Flames on April 14, 2026, Alexandar Georgiev has been confirmed as the starting goaltender for the Avalanche, while Jacob Markstrom will start in net for the Flames [[^]](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-04-14). Game-time decisions updated for Makar and Kylington. Following their morning skates, Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar, who was previously listed as a game-time decision after returning to full practice, is officially confirmed to be in the lineup [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/preview/NHL_20260414_COL@CGY/). In contrast, Calgary Flames defenseman Oliver Kylington, also a game-time decision due to an illness, has been ruled out and will not play in the game [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/preview/NHL_20260414_COL@CGY/). ## How Have Betting Lines Shifted for Avalanche vs. Flames Game? Colorado Avalanche Moneyline | Opened -115, Current -125 [[^]](https://www.oddstrader.com/nhl/event/calgary-flames-vs-colorado-avalanche/matchup/?eid=4772424) | Calgary Flames Moneyline | Opened -105, Current +105 [[^]](https://www.oddstrader.com/nhl/event/calgary-flames-vs-colorado-avalanche/matchup/?eid=4772424) | Over 5.5 Goals Total | Opened -110, Current -115 [[^]](https://www.oddstrader.com/nhl/event/calgary-flames-vs-colorado-avalanche/matchup/?eid=4772424) | **Moneyline shifts indicate significant professional money on the Avalanche** Moneyline shifts indicate significant professional money on the Avalanche. Since the **market** opened, sharp-tracking sportsbooks have adjusted the Colorado Avalanche's moneyline from an opening of -115 to -125, while the Calgary Flames' odds moved from -105 to +105 [[^]](https://www.oddstrader.com/nhl/event/calgary-flames-vs-colorado-avalanche/matchup/?eid=4772424). This movement strongly suggests a substantial influx of money backing the Avalanche, aligning with public betting trends that show **70%** of moneyline wagers are placed on Colorado [[^]](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nhl/public-betting-trends/). The consistency between the line movement and public interest implies that the **market** has adjusted to considerable betting engagement from both the public and potentially early professional wagers favoring the Avalanche. The 5.5 goal total also moved with public sentiment. The Over 5.5 goals total opened at -110 and subsequently shifted to -115, whereas the Under 5.5 goals total moved from -110 to -105 [[^]](https://www.oddstrader.com/nhl/event/calgary-flames-vs-colorado-avalanche/matchup/?eid=4772424). This line adjustment indicates a clear **market** preference for the Over. Public betting percentages further support this trend, with **65%** of all wagers on the total being placed on the Over 5.5 goals [[^]](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nhl/public-betting-trends/). Overall, the line movement observed for both the moneyline and the total suggests that the **market** has responded to significant betting interest that aligns with public sentiment, consequently making the Colorado Avalanche and the Over 5.5 goals less attractive in terms of potential return. ## How Do Avalanche and Flames Special Teams Compare? Avalanche PP Efficiency | 27.5% [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/colorado-avalanche-power-play-last-10-games) | Flames PK Efficiency | 79.2% [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/flames-penalty-kill-percentage-last-10-games-this-season) | Flames Power Play Conceded Rate | 20.8% [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/colorado-avalanche-power-play-last-10-games) | **The Colorado Avalanche exhibit strong power play efficiency recently** The Colorado Avalanche exhibit strong power play efficiency recently. Over their last 10 games, the Avalanche achieved a power play efficiency of **27.5%**, a rate considered robust within the NHL [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/colorado-avalanche-power-play-last-10-games). Conversely, the Calgary Flames recorded a penalty kill efficiency of **79.2%** over the same 10-game period, which aligns with the league average [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/flames-penalty-kill-percentage-last-10-games-this-season). It is important to note that the available sources do not provide specific road or home splits for these team metrics [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/colorado-avalanche-power-play-last-10-games). A significant special teams mismatch appears to favor Colorado. The Avalanche's **27.5%** power play success rate notably surpasses the Flames' effective penalty kill rate. This means the Flames allow goals on **20.8%** of power play opportunities faced (calculated as **100%** minus their **79.2%** penalty kill efficiency) [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/colorado-avalanche-power-play-last-10-games). This disparity suggests a potential advantage for Colorado, indicating that if awarded multiple power play opportunities, their efficiency could contribute to a higher overall goal total in a game against Calgary [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/colorado-avalanche-power-play-last-10-games). ## What Are Avalanche Back-to-Back Road and Flames Home Records? Avalanche 2024-25 Road Record | 23-17-1 [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=avalanche+away+record+this+season+2024-2025) | Avalanche Back-to-Back Road Stats | Not directly available in research [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/avalanche-back-to-back-games-stats) | Flames Home Record vs. B2B Opponent | Not directly available in research [[^]](http://hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/2026_games.html) | **Specific Avalanche back-to-back road statistics were not directly available in research** Specific Avalanche back-to-back road statistics were not directly available in research. The provided web research did not directly present pre-compiled statistics detailing the Colorado Avalanche's win/loss record or average goals for/against exclusively in the second game of a road back-to-back over the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. While sources such as "Avalanche Back To Back Games Stats" [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/avalanche-back-to-back-games-stats) and team game logs for 2025-26 [[^]](https://quanthockey.com/nhl/team-game-logs/colorado-avalanche-2025-26-nhl-game-log.html), [[^]](http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/COL/2026_gamelog.html) were identified, extracting this precise scenario would require detailed analysis. A general statistic noted the Avalanche held a 23-17-1 road record during the 2024-25 season [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=avalanche+away+record+this+season+2024-2025). Flames' specific home record against fatigued teams remains uncompiled. Similarly, the research did not yield direct, pre-compiled data for the Calgary Flames' record when playing at home against a team specifically completing the second game of a road back-to-back. Although the 2025-26 Flames schedule [[^]](http://hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/2026_games.html), head-to-head results [[^]](http://hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/2026_headtohead.html), and splits [[^]](http://www.statmuse.com/nhl/team/calgary-flames-21/splits/2026) were accessible, identifying these highly specific opponent situations and calculating corresponding Flames' statistics would necessitate extensive cross-referencing and data compilation from individual game details. Therefore, a direct statistical comparison for this specific scenario cannot be made based on the provided research. ## What Were Avalanche and Flames Line Combinations April 9, 2026? Avalanche Projected First Forward Line | Artturi Lehkonen - Nathan MacKinnon - Mikko Rantanen [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/) | Avalanche Projected First Defensive Pair | Devon Toews - Cale Makar [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/) | Calgary Flames Line Data Reliability | Not reliably determinable due to significant inaccuracies [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/) | **Colorado's lineup remained stable, showing no strategic shifts** Colorado's lineup remained stable, showing no strategic shifts. The Colorado Avalanche's projected forward lines and defensive pairings for April 9, 2026, were consistent with recent game previews, indicating no apparent strategic shifts from their most recent games [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/). Their key projected first forward line featured Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen, while the second line included Jonathan Drouin, Casey Mittelstadt, and Valeri Nichushkin. Defensive pairings consisted of Devon Toews with Cale Makar, and Samuel Girard with Josh Manson [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/). These projections were identical to their reported lines from March 30, 2026, suggesting stability in their lineup structure [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/). Calgary's lineup data was unreliable due to significant inaccuracies. Conversely, available game previews for the Calgary Flames for April 9, 2026, contained substantial inaccuracies, making it impossible to reliably determine their final line combinations or assess any strategic shifts from their most recent games [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/). These errors included listing defensemen as forwards, incorporating players not on the team roster such as A. Cirelli and N. Ehlers, and listing players known to have been traded by early 2026 like Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, and Chris Tanev [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/). Due to these significant discrepancies and inconsistencies, a reliable assessment of the Flames' final line combinations or strategic changes could not be made from the provided information [[^]](https://insidetherink.com/nhl-game-preview-calgary-flames-at-colorado-avalanche-with-line-combinations-04-07-2026/). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 29, 2026 - **Closes:** April 29, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [Portland at Phoenix](/markets/exotics/portland-at-phoenix/) - [Miami at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/miami-at-charlotte/) - [Boston at New York](/markets/exotics/boston-at-new-york/) - [East Play-In](/markets/exotics/east-play-in/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20269E2D44215C4-D0ADB8B0090: NO (Apr 14, 2026) - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20262915524527E-CF09835BB7C: NO (Apr 14, 2026) - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026E633E6A1686-B234D4BBB32: NO (Apr 14, 2026) - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026B09C602F8D9-9A13F2D22F7: NO (Apr 14, 2026) - KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026B09C602F8D9-21915F87200: NO (Apr 14, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.