# Carolina at Philadelphia

MVE

Updated: April 14, 2026

Category: Exotics

HTML: /markets/exotics/carolina-at-philadelphia/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect yes PHI Flyers,yes DAL Stars,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Carolina goalies have a significantly higher 5-on-5 high-danger save percentage.** - Carolina's bottom-six forwards show stronger expected goals for percentage.
- Flyers demonstrated strong home underdog puck line cover performance in 2025-26.
- Carolina exhibits a performance advantage from goalie and forward metrics.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **5.1%** **probability** vs 0c **market**, a +5.1 point gap, due to Carolina's goalie and depth advantage.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| yes CAR Hurricanes,yes TOR Maple Leafs,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,yes Over 4.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored | 4.8% | 5.1% | Model higher by 0.3pp |
| yes PHI Flyers,yes DAL Stars,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,no Over 5.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored | 1.5% | 1.2% | Carolina's goalies and bottom-six forwards demonstrate a performance advantage over Philadelphia. |
| yes PHI Flyers,yes DAL Stars,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored | 0.0% | 5.1% | Carolina's goalies and bottom-six forwards demonstrate a performance advantage over Philadelphia. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| yes CAR Hurricanes,yes TOR Maple Leafs,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,yes Over 4.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| yes PHI Flyers,yes DAL Stars,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,no Over 5.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| yes PHI Flyers,yes DAL Stars,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| yes CAR Hurricanes,yes TOR Maple Leafs,yes DET Red Wings,yes NYR Rangers,no Over 9.5 goals scored,no Over 9.5 goals scored,no Over 9.5 goals scored,no Over 9.5 goals scored | 0.0% | 0.7% |

- Expiration: April 27, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves to YES if the Philadelphia Flyers, Dallas Stars, Tampa Bay Lightning, and New York Rangers all win their respective games, and four distinct outcomes of "Over 3.5 goals scored" are also met; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and closes at 7:00 PM EDT on April 27, 2026, with a projected payout at the same time. Outcomes are verified based on official results from the leagues governing the respective games.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| yes CAR Hurricanes,yes TOR Maple Leafs,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,yes Over 4.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored,yes Over 5.5 goals scored | 0% | 100% | 4.8% | $585 | $585 |
| yes PHI Flyers,yes DAL Stars,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,no Over 5.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored,no Over 6.5 goals scored | 0% | 100% | 1.5% | $27 | $27 |
| yes CAR Hurricanes,yes TOR Maple Leafs,yes DET Red Wings,yes NYR Rangers,no Over 9.5 goals scored,no Over 9.5 goals scored,no Over 9.5 goals scored,no Over 9.5 goals scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes PHI Flyers,yes DAL Stars,yes TB Lightning,yes NYR Rangers,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored,yes Over 3.5 goals scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What are the 5-on-5 HDSV% for goalies in the Carolina at Philadelphia game?

Samuel Ersson (PHI) 5-on-5 HDSV% | Approximately.765 [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g) |
Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) 5-on-5 HDSV% | Approximately.805 [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g) |
Frederik Andersen (CAR) 5-on-5 HDSV% | Approximately.803 [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g) |

**Information regarding Carolina's starting goalie and specific HDSV% was limited**

Information regarding Carolina's starting goalie and specific HDSV% was limited. The confirmed starting goalie for Carolina in the "Carolina at Philadelphia" match could not be determined from the provided sources [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g), [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/), [[^]](https://benchrates.com/player/105/frederik-andersen/skills), [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/samuel-ersson-stats), [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/pyotr-kochetkov-last-10-games), [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/frederik-andersen-last-5-games), [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask?q=pyotr+kochetkov+save+percentage+since+**12%**2F14%2F23). Furthermore, data for a goalie's 5-on-5 high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) specifically for their last five starts was not directly available through the provided links, which primarily offer season-to-date statistics [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g), [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/).

Season-to-date statistics reveal differing 5-on-5 high-danger save percentages. According to Natural Stat Trick, Samuel Ersson of Philadelphia has an approximate 5-on-5 HDSV% of.765 [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g). In contrast, Carolina's potential starting goalies, Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen, show higher season-to-date 5-on-5 HDSV% values, with Kochetkov at approximately.805 and Andersen at approximately.803 [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g).

Carolina's potential goalies currently outperform Ersson in 5-on-5 HDSV%. Based on these current season figures, both of Carolina's potential starting netminders exhibit a better 5-on-5 HDSV% compared to Samuel Ersson of the Philadelphia Flyers [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g).

## Why is Hurricanes vs Flyers Power Play Differential Data Unavailable?

Hurricanes PP Goals | Available for last 5 games [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/hurricanes-power-play-goals-last-5-games) |
Hurricanes PP Opp. | 26 in last 10 games [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/carolina-hurricanes-powerplay-last-10-games) |
Flyers PP Stats | General 2025 season summary available [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/philadelphia-flyers-team-summary-stats?category=powerplays&season=2025&seasonType=reg) |

**The net power-play goal differential for the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers over their last 15 games cannot be fully determined from the available sources**

The net power-play goal differential for the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers over their last 15 games cannot be fully determined from the available sources. Information regarding Power Play Goals For (PPGF) and Power Play Goals Against (PPGA) specifically for this 15-game period is limited, preventing a direct comparison of recent special teams advantage.

For the Carolina Hurricanes, comprehensive data for their last 15 games is not explicitly available. While statistics are provided for shorter periods, such as power-play goals over their last 5 games [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/hurricanes-power-play-goals-last-5-games) and 26 power-play opportunities across their last 10 games [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/carolina-hurricanes-powerplay-last-10-games), direct counts of both PPGF and PPGA for the specific 15-game span are not stated. Penalty kill performance data for their last 10 games [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/hurricanes-penalty-kill-last-10-games) and opponent power-play opportunities for their last 5 games [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/hurricanes-opponent-power-play-opportunities-against-last-5-games) are also available, but do not complete the picture for the requested metric.

Similarly, the Philadelphia Flyers lack directly available comprehensive power-play statistics covering their last 15 games. The provided sources include general season summary statistics for power plays from the 2025 season [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/philadelphia-flyers-team-summary-stats?category=powerplays&season=2025&seasonType=reg) and a team gamelog for the 2025-26 season [[^]](https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/PHI/2026_gamelog.html). However, these resources do not offer the specific 'last 15 games' data points required to calculate their current power-play goal differential for the requested period.

## How Do Flyers And Hurricanes Puck Lines Compare 2025-26?

Flyers Home Puck Line Cover Rate | 66.7% (12 qualifying games) [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/gamelog/hockey/nhl/16589) |
Hurricanes Road Puck Line Cover Rate | 60.0% (15 qualifying games) [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/gamelog/hockey/nhl/16600) |
Flyers Puck Line Cover Instances | 8 out of 12 games (Flyers) [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/gamelog/hockey/nhl/16589) |

**During the 2025-2026 NHL season, the Philadelphia Flyers have shown strong home underdog puck line cover performance**

During the 2025-2026 NHL season, the Philadelphia Flyers have shown strong home underdog puck line cover performance. Up to April 12, 2026, when playing at home as betting underdogs with a moneyline greater than +120, the Flyers covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 out of 12 identified games, achieving a **66.7%** cover rate [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/gamelog/hockey/nhl/16589). This indicates that in these scenarios, the Flyers either won the game outright or lost by a single goal.

In contrast, the Carolina Hurricanes exhibited a notable road favorite puck line cover rate in the same season. When playing as road favorites, the Hurricanes attempted to cover the -1.5 puck line, doing so in 9 of their 15 road games, which resulted in a **60.0%** cover rate [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/gamelog/hockey/nhl/16600). For the Hurricanes to cover this puck line, they were required to win the game by two or more goals.

Comparing these specific scenarios reveals the Flyers' home underdog cover rate slightly surpasses the Hurricanes' road favorite performance. The Philadelphia Flyers' **66.7%** cover rate as home underdogs is marginally better than the Carolina Hurricanes' **60.0%** cover rate when playing as road favorites attempting to cover the -1.5 puck line.

## How do Hurricanes' and Flyers' bottom-six forwards compare in xGF%?

Hurricanes Bottom-Six xGF% | Approximately 54.69% [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=CAR) |
Flyers Bottom-Six xGF% | Approximately 40.98% [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=PHI) |
Hurricanes Overall 5-on-5 xGF% | 59.5% [[^]](https://www.moneypuck.com/t.htm?t=CAR) |

**Over the past month in 5-on-5 play, the Carolina Hurricanes' depth forwards significantly drive play, tilting the ice**

Over the past month in 5-on-5 play, the Carolina Hurricanes' depth forwards significantly drive play, tilting the ice. Their bottom-six forwards, including players such as Seth Jarvis, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jordan Martinook, Jack Drury, Stefan Noesen, and Brendan Lemieux, achieved an average expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of approximately **54.69%** [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=CAR). This robust percentage indicates that these depth players create a significantly higher proportion of expected goals relative to their opponents, effectively driving play in their favor [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=CAR). This strong performance from the Hurricanes' depth contributes to the team's overall excellent 5-on-5 xGF% of **59.5%** during the same period [[^]](https://www.moneypuck.com/t.htm?t=CAR).

In contrast, Philadelphia's depth lines struggled to control expected goal share. The Philadelphia Flyers' bottom-six forwards, which include Garnet Hathaway, Noah Cates, Ryan Poehling, Morgan Frost, Tyson Foerster, and Cam Atkinson, recorded an average xGF% of approximately **40.98%** over the past month in 5-on-5 play [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=PHI). This figure suggests that Philadelphia's depth has consistently struggled to generate more expected goals than they concede. The Flyers' overall team 5-on-5 xGF% for the period was **43.8%** [[^]](https://www.moneypuck.com/t.htm?t=PHI), reflecting a general challenge in controlling expected goal share across the team.

Carolina's bottom-six forwards demonstrate superior effectiveness compared to Philadelphia's. Based on these advanced metrics, the Carolina Hurricanes' depth forwards are significantly more effective at driving play and tilting the ice than their Philadelphia counterparts [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=CAR). This indicates a substantial advantage for Carolina in terms of depth performance when comparing the two teams' bottom-six lines [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=CAR).

## What is the average shift in Carolina Hurricanes moneyline and total goals pre-game?

Average Moneyline Shift | Not quantifiable due to lack of specific historical time-stamped odds data [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl/odds/carolina-hurricanes) |
Average Total Goals Shift | Not quantifiable due to lack of specific historical time-stamped odds data [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl/odds/carolina-hurricanes) |
Required Data | Detailed historical betting logs with time-stamped odds from multiple sportsbooks are needed for analysis [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl/odds/carolina-hurricanes) |

**The average shifts in consensus betting lines could not be determined**

The average shifts in consensus betting lines could not be determined. The research was unable to quantify the average shifts in the consensus moneyline and total goals lines within the final two hours before puck drop for the last five Carolina Hurricanes road games. Consequently, it is not possible to infer how late sharp money reacted to lineup confirmations and travel factors based on this specific analysis.

Specific historical betting line movement data was unavailable. The granular historical betting line movement data required for this analysis, particularly time-stamped historical odds showing precise line movements two hours before puck drop for past games, was not found in the available web research. While sources such as Action Network, Odds Shark, and SportsBettingDime provided general odds, schedules, and team statistics [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl/odds/carolina-hurricanes), they did not offer the detailed historical betting logs necessary to answer the question. Quantifying these average shifts would necessitate access to such detailed historical betting logs from multiple sportsbooks.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 27, 2026
- **Closes:** April 27, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Related Research Reports

- [Portland at Phoenix](/markets/exotics/portland-at-phoenix/)
- [Miami at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/miami-at-charlotte/)
- [Boston at New York](/markets/exotics/boston-at-new-york/)
- [East Play-In](/markets/exotics/east-play-in/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S202621AF182429D-C085DE20646: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026151C91D18C2-E9815ABFD0D: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026D845C31900E-51CB1540E41: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20264487BF4D546-CF3F6DD16B5: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S20264487BF4D546-4BD075ADEFB: NO (Apr 14, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.