# Arizona vs Baltimore

MVE

Updated: April 14, 2026

Category: Exotics

HTML: /markets/exotics/arizona-vs-baltimore/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect that yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Both starting pitchers show significant recent improvement in advanced metrics.** - Key high-leverage relievers are unavailable for both bullpens.
- Bullpen issues increase later-inning run risk for higher thresholds.
- Home plate umpire Brennan Miller's record leans slightly towards unders.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **0.3%** **probability** is **0.1%** above 0c **market**, implying 500x payout potential due to bullpen unavailability risk.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0.2% | 0.3% | Improved starters suggest fewer runs, though bullpen issues heighten late-game run risk. |
| yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0.3% | 0.3% | Improved starters suggest fewer runs, though bullpen issues heighten late-game run risk. |
| yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0.2% | 0.3% | Improved starters suggest fewer runs, though bullpen issues heighten late-game run risk. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored | 0.0% | 0.3% |

- Expiration: April 17, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, this market displays a completely flat price trend. Trading opened at a 0.2% probability for a "YES" outcome, and the price has remained static at this level throughout its history. With only a single data point recorded, there have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. The price action is entirely sideways, indicating a complete lack of change in the market's perceived probability since trading began.

Given the absence of any price fluctuations, there are no market movements to correlate with any news or developments. A total of 909 contracts have been traded, which suggests a degree of participant activity. However, the fact that this volume has failed to cause any price change indicates a stable equilibrium. This suggests that buy and sell interest is perfectly matched at the 0.2% level, reflecting a strong consensus among traders.

The 0.2% price point is the only key level established in this market, acting as both the definitive support and resistance for all trading activity so far. This extremely low and stable price suggests a very strong market sentiment that the event is highly unlikely to resolve to "YES". The market's conviction appears firm, as the existing volume has not been able to shift the probability from this initial, deeply pessimistic forecast.

## Contract Snapshot

A 'Yes' resolution for the "Arizona vs Baltimore" market is triggered if the condition "yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored" is met, otherwise it resolves to 'No'. The market opens on April 14, 2026, at 1:05 AM EDT, and closes on April 17, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, with a projected payout on the same closing date. The outcome's verification will be sourced from the NCAA and NFL.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored | 0% | 0% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0% | 100% | 0.3% | $3,030 | $3,030 |
| yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0% | 100% | 0.2% | $909 | $909 |
| no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 9.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,no Over 8.5 runs scored,no Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored | 0% | 100% | 0.2% | $3,636 | $3,636 |
| yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 7.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 8.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 6.5 runs scored,yes Over 5.5 runs scored,yes Over 4.5 runs scored | 0% | 100% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## How Have Brandon Pfaadt and Cole Irvin's Pitching Metrics Improved Recently?

Brandon Pfaadt Recent xFIP | 3.25 (May 2024 data) [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brandon-pfaadt/27782/stats/pitching) |
Brandon Pfaadt Recent Hard-Hit% | 30.7% [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-pfaadt-694297) |
Cole Irvin Recent xFIP | 3.65 (May 2024 data) [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cole-irvin/19244/stats/pitching) |

**Brandon Pfaadt recently shows significant improvement in advanced pitching metrics**

Brandon Pfaadt recently shows significant improvement in advanced pitching metrics. The probable starter for Arizona, Pfaadt's Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP) for the 2024 season is 3.73 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brandon-pfaadt/27782/stats/pitching), but it improved to 3.25 for May 2024 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brandon-pfaadt/27782/stats/pitching). Regarding batted ball quality, his season-long Barrel% stands at **7.1%**, with a Hard-Hit% of **35.8%**. Over the last 30 days (approximately May 10 - June 9, 2024), these figures decreased to **5.9%** for Barrel% and **30.7%** for Hard-Hit% [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-pfaadt-694297), indicating greater effectiveness in limiting hard contact.

Cole Irvin also demonstrates a positive trend in his recent pitching profile. The probable starter for Baltimore, Irvin's season-long xFIP is 3.91 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cole-irvin/19244/stats/pitching), improving to 3.65 for May 2024, which covers a significant portion of his last 30 days [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cole-irvin/19244/stats/pitching). His season average for Barrel% is **4.9%**, and his Hard-Hit% is **34.6%**. Over his last 30 days (approximately May 10 - June 9, 2024), Irvin's Barrel% slightly improved to **4.1%**, and his Hard-Hit% reduced to **30.6%** [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cole-irvin-608344). These statistics suggest Irvin has also been effective in limiting quality contact from opposing hitters in recent starts.

## How Do Diamondbacks And Orioles Bullpens Compare In Availability?

Arizona D-Backs Top Relievers Total Pitches | 81 pitches (over past three days) [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/bullpen-usage.php?team=ARI) |
Baltimore Orioles Top Relievers Total Pitches | 80 pitches (over past three days) [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/bullpen-usage.php?team=BAL) |
Baltimore Orioles Key Unavailable Relievers | Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/bullpen-usage.php?team=BAL) |

**Arizona's bullpen shows high workload for two key relievers**

Arizona's bullpen shows high workload for two key relievers. The Arizona Diamondbacks' top four high-leverage relievers—Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel, Scott McGough, and Miguel Castro—have combined for 81 pitches thrown over the last three days [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/bullpen-usage.php?team=ARI). Among these, Kevin Ginkel is on a 'red flag' list, making him likely unavailable today due to pitching on back-to-back days. Paul Sewald is also flagged as 'High Usage/Likely Unavailable' for similar reasons. Conversely, Scott McGough, who last pitched one day ago, and Miguel Castro, whose most recent appearance was three days ago, are anticipated to be available for today's game [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/bullpen-usage.php?team=ARI).

Baltimore's high-leverage bullpen also has two relievers with heavy recent usage. For the Baltimore Orioles, the top four relievers—Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Anthony Nunez, and Rico Garcia—have accumulated a collective 80 pitches over the past three days [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/bullpen-usage.php?team=BAL). Both Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe are on 'red flag' lists, indicating 'High Usage/Likely Unavailable' due to consecutive appearances and high recent pitch counts. Anthony Nunez and Rico Garcia, recognized as newer high-leverage arms after recent performances [[^]](https://thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-giants-game-2-anthony-nunez-rico-garcia-3CXXI56C5VFVRALDKRPZH66TEE/), appear available today, having pitched two and three days ago, respectively [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/bullpen-usage.php?team=BAL).

## Are recent Diamondbacks and Orioles offensive splits available?

Diamondbacks ISO vs Lefties | Referenced for last 20 games [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/diamondbacks-iso-vs-lefties-last-20-games) |
Diamondbacks wOBA vs Lefties | Not explicitly detailed for last 21 days [[^]](https://www.espn.go.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/ari) |
Orioles wOBA/ISO vs Righties | Not directly indicated for last 21 days [[^]](https://www.espn.go.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/ari) |

**Arizona Diamondbacks' specific offensive platoon splits are partially available**

Arizona Diamondbacks' specific offensive platoon splits are partially available. Specific Isolated Power (ISO) data for the Arizona Diamondbacks against left-handed pitching for the last 20 games is available through web research [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/diamondbacks-iso-vs-lefties-last-20-games). However, specific weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) data for the Diamondbacks against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days is not explicitly detailed in the provided source titles or descriptions.

Baltimore Orioles' specific offensive splits for the past 21 days are not available. For the Baltimore Orioles, neither the wOBA nor the ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days are directly indicated as available in the provided source titles [[^]](https://www.espn.go.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/ari). While general team statistics and splits are noted to be available, these sources do not explicitly offer the precise wOBA or ISO metrics for the requested 21-day timeframe for either team.

## How Do Umpire Records and Weather Affect MLB Game Totals?

Umpire Brennan Miller O/U Record | 15-18-1 (Over-Under-Push) [[^]](https://oddsshark.com/stats/referee/baseball/mlb/4652) |
Average Runs in Miller's Games | 8.24 total runs [[^]](https://oddsshark.com/stats/referee/baseball/mlb/4652) |
Humidity Effect on Ball Flight | Slightly reduced ball flight [[^]](https://mlbprediction.com/weather-effects-mlb.html) |

**Home plate umpire Brennan Miller has an Over/Under record of 15-18-1 [[^]](https://oddsshark.com/stats/referee/baseball/mlb/4652)**

Home plate umpire Brennan Miller has an Over/Under record of 15-18-1 [[^]](https://oddsshark.com/stats/referee/baseball/mlb/4652). In games he has umpired, the average total runs scored is 8.24, which provides a comprehensive overview of his career trends [[^]](https://oddsshark.com/stats/referee/baseball/mlb/4652).

At Oriole Park at Camden Yards, wind significantly influences run-scoring [[^]](https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/using-wind-speed-and-direction-to-predict-mlb-scoring-736733). Wind blowing out from home plate towards the outfield typically increases batted ball distance, leading to more home runs and a higher total run count [[^]](https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/using-wind-speed-and-direction-to-predict-mlb-scoring-736733). Conversely, wind blowing in from the outfield can suppress offense by keeping balls in the park, thereby reducing extra-base hits and overall runs [[^]](https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/using-wind-speed-and-direction-to-predict-mlb-scoring-736733). The open design of Camden Yards makes it particularly susceptible to these wind effects [[^]](https://www.ballparkpal.com/Parks/Oriole-Park.php).

Humidity also affects game outcomes by creating denser air [[^]](https://mlbprediction.com/weather-effects-mlb.html). Higher humidity can slightly reduce the distance a batted ball travels, generally leading to a minor decrease in offensive production, making extra-base hits and home runs less frequent compared to games played in drier conditions [[^]](https://mlbprediction.com/weather-effects-mlb.html).

## Are Betting Lines Established for Arizona vs. Baltimore MLB Game?

Opening Total Runs Line | Not yet established (sharp sportsbooks and public tracking sites) [[^]](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/matchup/diamondbacks-orioles-2026-04-14) |
Current Public Betting Percentage | Not yet established (sharp sportsbooks and public tracking sites) [[^]](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/matchup/diamondbacks-orioles-2026-04-14) |
Sharp Money Indication | Divergence between public bet percentage and total money wagered [[^]](https://actionnetwork.com/mlb/public-betting) |

**Initial betting lines for future MLB games are not yet available**

Initial betting lines for future MLB games are not yet available. For the "Arizona vs Baltimore" MLB game scheduled for April 14, 2026, specific opening total runs lines are currently not established at sharp sportsbooks or accessible via public tracking sites [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/arizona-baltimore-odds-april-14-2026-2499861). Sharp sportsbooks, such as Circa | Sports, play a key role in setting initial lines that can significantly influence the broader betting **market** [[^]](https://www.circasports.com/). The consensus total runs line adjusts based on several factors, including the volume and distribution of early wagers, injury reports, pitching matchups, and prevailing weather forecasts [[^]](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/matchup/diamondbacks-orioles-2026-04-14). Tracking services often provide data on these initial lines and their subsequent movements, offering insights into **market** reactions [[^]](https://www.vegasinsider.com/).

Professional betting syndicates are identified by analyzing wagering discrepancies. To determine where professional betting syndicates are placing their capital, analysts typically examine the divergence between the public bet percentage and the money percentage on the Over/Under [[^]](https://actionnetwork.com/mlb/public-betting). The public bet percentage represents the proportion of individual betting tickets placed, which reflects general public sentiment, whereas the money percentage indicates the total dollar amount wagered [[^]](https://actionnetwork.com/mlb/public-betting). A notable difference, such as a high public bet percentage on one side (e.g., Over) while the majority of the money percentage is on the opposing side (e.g., Under), frequently signals the presence of professional betting syndicates or "sharp money" placing larger wagers against the public consensus [[^]](https://actionnetwork.com/mlb/public-betting). This strategy, often referred to as "fading the public," suggests that sophisticated bettors perceive value in the less popular outcome, which can lead to subsequent line movements that reflect the influx of professional capital [[^]](https://actionnetwork.com/mlb/public-betting).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 17, 2026
- **Closes:** April 17, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Related Research Reports

- [Portland at Phoenix](/markets/exotics/portland-at-phoenix/)
- [Miami at Charlotte](/markets/exotics/miami-at-charlotte/)
- [Boston at New York](/markets/exotics/boston-at-new-york/)
- [East Play-In](/markets/exotics/east-play-in/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S202636FC1A17389-6F53D1DA461: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026104E0EEF86B-F6D012600AF: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S202636FC1A17389-901910058E7: NO (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026D556A7EBCC2-29BF581FA3E: YES (Apr 14, 2026)
- KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-S2026D556A7EBCC2-F7B3F2FF627: YES (Apr 14, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.