# Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?

In 2026

Updated: May 11, 2026

Category: Entertainment

HTML: /markets/entertainment/who-will-win-the-nobel-peace-prize/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) at **17.2%** **model** **probability** versus **28.0%** **market** **probability**.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Geopolitical events are identified as key catalysts for market shifts.** - Diplomatic resolutions could serve as catalysts for leading contenders.
- Nobel Committee historically honors both individuals and large organizations.
- Prediction **market** odds vary significantly across different platforms.
- ICJ rulings would not directly change its Nobel candidacy standing.
- **Market** volatility may be exacerbated by asymmetry and manipulation risks.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 4c, the **market** prices 2.5 points higher than the **1.5%** **model** estimate, despite 2026 nominations already closed.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Donald Trump | 4.0% | 1.5% | His past presidency and diplomatic efforts have led to nominations for the prize. |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | 28.0% | 17.2% | They are involved in critical humanitarian aid and crisis response in Sudan. |
| Minneapolis | 3.0% | 1.0% | The city has been a focal point for movements addressing peace and justice issues. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Donald Trump | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | 28.0% | 17.2% |
| Minneapolis | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 6.0% | 2.6% |
| Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | 21.0% | 10.8% |
| Elon Musk | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| International Court of Justice (ICJ) | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Francesca Albanese | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Narges Mohammadi | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| European Union | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Dario Amodei | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Altman | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: January 1, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price action for this market has been largely sideways, trading within a narrow band between 3.0% and 7.0% probability. The contract began trading at a high of 7.0% before experiencing a significant drop to a low of 3.0%. This decline corresponds with the period when news emerged about the total number of nominees for the 2026 prize. Reports that the field consisted of 287 candidates, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations, and that Donald Trump was "likely" among them, appear to have caused traders to reassess his individual chances, resulting in the price falling by more than half.

Since hitting its low, the price has stabilized around the 4.0% level, suggesting the market has found a temporary equilibrium. The 3.0% mark has established itself as a support level, while the initial 7.0% price serves as a historical resistance point. The total volume of over 22,000 contracts indicates a fair amount of interest in the market over its lifetime, although the sample data points show periods of low activity. Overall, the consistent trading at a low single-digit probability suggests that market participants view this outcome as a long shot, with sentiment having turned more bearish after the full scope of the competition became clearer.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, otherwise it resolves to No. The outcome will be verified by the Nobel Prize organization ([nobelprize.org](https://www.nobelprize.org/)). The market opens on October 13, 2025, and closes after the award announcement or by December 31, 2026, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited for persons employed by Source Agencies or those with material, non-public information.

## Market Discussion

The discussion among traders primarily centers on a desire to see additional candidates listed for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, specifically "the Pope." While Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (28%) and Doctors Without Borders (21%) currently show the highest predicted probabilities, traders also reference figures like Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and humorously, "Minneapolis." There are no detailed arguments for or against the leading contenders, but rather an expressed interest in expanding the pool of tradable nominees.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | 2% | 7% | 2% | $260 | $110 |
| Dario Amodei | 1% | 3% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Donald Trump | 3% | 4% | 4% | $435,419.9 | $156,166.97 |
| Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | 17% | 20% | 21% | $6,043.03 | $3,849.79 |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 2% | 1% | $4,209 | $1,945 |
| European Union | 1% | 3% | 1% | $400.37 | $176.37 |
| Francesca Albanese | 3% | 6% | 6% | $2,233 | $1,949 |
| International Court of Justice (ICJ) | 4% | 5% | 4% | $2,780 | $1,749 |
| Minneapolis | 2% | 3% | 3% | $10,795.35 | $6,965.41 |
| Narges Mohammadi | 6% | 7% | 7% | $1,066.83 | $833.83 |
| Sam Altman | 1% | 3% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | 23% | 29% | 28% | $12,925.11 | $5,670.61 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 5% | 6% | 6% | $10,099.01 | $7,475.01 |

## What geopolitical events or diplomatic resolutions before the October 2026 announcement could serve as catalysts for frontrunners like Donald Trump or Volodymyr Zelenskyy?

Ceasefire proposal date | May 9 [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/05/01/g-s1-119659/zelenskyy-seeking-details-of-putins-ceasefire-proposal)[[^]](https://www.rferl.org/a/trump-putin-temporary-cease-fire-ukraine/33745527.html) |
Ceasefire duration | Three days (May 9–11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.wcvb.com/article/trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-prisoner-exchange/71255001) |
Prisoner exchange | 1,000 prisoners by each side [[^]](https://www.wcvb.com/article/trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-prisoner-exchange/71255001) |

**Geopolitical events and diplomatic resolutions influence Nobel Peace Prize candidacies before October 2026**

Geopolitical events and diplomatic resolutions influence Nobel Peace Prize candidacies before October 2026. Geopolitical events and diplomatic resolutions involving Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy could position them as frontrunners for the Nobel Peace Prize before its October 9, 2026, announcement [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139). Developments occurring leading up to this date significantly influence public and prediction-**market** narratives regarding potential laureates [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139). Key events, such as a reported May 9 ceasefire proposal and ongoing peace effort discussions, could strengthen their respective "peace" narratives.

Donald Trump spearheaded a May 9 ceasefire proposal in 2026. Donald Trump was reportedly involved in a May 9 ceasefire proposal, which was discussed via a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/05/01/g-s1-119659/zelenskyy-seeking-details-of-putins-ceasefire-proposal)[[^]](https://www.rferl.org/a/trump-putin-temporary-cease-fire-ukraine/33745527.html). Trump publicly announced that Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, alongside an exchange of 1,000 prisoners by each side [[^]](https://www.wcvb.com/article/trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-prisoner-exchange/71255001). This episode, combining de-escalation with diplomatic deliverables, could significantly enhance "peace" narratives associated with Trump [[^]](https://www.wcvb.com/article/trump-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-prisoner-exchange/71255001).

Volodymyr Zelenskyy engaged in ongoing diplomatic efforts and discussions. Following Trump's role as the US interlocutor, Zelenskyy is reported to be seeking details of Putin’s May 9 ceasefire proposal [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/05/01/g-s1-119659/zelenskyy-seeking-details-of-putins-ceasefire-proposal). Furthermore, Zelenskyy stated he had spoken with Trump about current peace efforts and anticipated progress toward leaders-level talks [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/zelenskyy-speaks-with-trump-about-peace-efforts-eyes-leaders-level-talks). These discussions were linked to upcoming trilateral meetings, including diplomacy in the Geneva area, highlighting sustained diplomatic activity that could contribute to the peace-related narratives of both Trump and Zelenskyy [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/25/zelenskyy-speaks-with-trump-about-peace-efforts-eyes-leaders-level-talks).

## Why do prediction market odds for candidates like Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) and Yulia Navalnaya vary significantly between platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket?

Yulia Navalnaya Implied Probability | ~8¢/8% (Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 market) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139) |
Order Book Status | Independent for Kalshi and Polymarket [[^]](https://blog.polytrage.com/why-the-same-market-trades-at-different-prices-on-polymarket-and-kalshi/) |
Liquidity and Spreads | Differ by venue and market [[^]](https://polymarkets.co.il/en/guide/polymarket-vs-kalshi/) |

**Prediction market odds for candidates such as Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) and Yulia Navalnaya vary significantly between platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket primarily because each platform maintains an independent order book**

Prediction **market** odds for candidates such as Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) and Yulia Navalnaya vary significantly between platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket primarily because each platform maintains an independent order book. This means there is no shared information or automatic synchronization of prices between platforms; instead, individual pricing is exclusively shaped by the order flow and trading activities of its own users [[^]](https://blog.polytrage.com/why-the-same-**market**-trades-at-different-prices-on-polymarket-and-kalshi/). Further contributing to these discrepancies are differences in liquidity and spreads across various venues and specific markets [[^]](https://polymarkets.co.il/en/guide/polymarket-vs-kalshi/).

Polymarket's deeper liquidity often impacts candidate odds, especially for Nobel Peace Prize contenders. Polymarket is frequently recognized for possessing deeper liquidity, particularly within political and geopolitical markets [[^]](https://polymarkets.co.il/en/guide/polymarket-vs-kalshi/). For candidates publicly described as front-runners for awards like the Nobel Peace Prize, such as Sudan's ERRs, swift re-pricing can occur based on evolving humanitarian or geopolitical developments, and these changes may not be uniform across different platforms [[^]](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/10/11/g-s1-92906/nobel-peace-prize-nominee-sudan-emergency-response-rooms)[[^]](https://www.olbg.com/news/2026-nobel-peace-prize-odds-sudans-emergency-response-rooms-lead-trump-4-1-second-favourite). As an example, Polymarket's "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" **market** indicated Yulia Navalnaya at an implied **probability** of approximately **8%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139).

## How do the Nobel Committee's historical selection patterns compare between individual political figures (like Trump/Zelenskyy) and large-scale organizations (like the EU/ICJ)?

Recipient Categories | Individual political figures and large-scale organizations [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/history/)[[^]](https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/nobel-peace-prize)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/facts/facts-on-the-nobel-peace-prize-2/) |
Nomination Secrecy Period | 50 years [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/nomination/) |
Organizational Recognition Examples | European Union (2012), International Atomic Energy Agency (2005) [[^]](https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-list-of-nobel-peace-prize-winners/)[[^]](https://www.voanews.com/a/fact-box-organizations-that-have-won-nobel-peace-prize/1525287.html) |

**The Nobel Committee consistently honors both individual political figures and large-scale organizations for their significant contributions to peace, aligning with Alfred Nobel's will [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/history/)[[^]](https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/nobel-peace-prize)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/facts/facts-on-the-nobel-peace-prize-2/)**

The Nobel Committee consistently honors both individual political figures and large-scale organizations for their significant contributions to peace, aligning with Alfred Nobel's will [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/history/)[[^]](https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/nobel-peace-prize)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/facts/facts-on-the-nobel-peace-prize-2/). Both types of recipients fulfill the broad criteria of promoting fraternity between nations and peace, though their specific contributions generally differ in scope and method [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/history/)[[^]](https://quakernobel.org/criteria).

Individual political figures are frequently honored for their critical roles in peace treaties or international diplomacy. Notable examples include Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, and Yasser Arafat, who were recognized in 1994 for their efforts in the Middle East peace process [[^]](https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-list-of-nobel-peace-prize-winners/)[[^]](http://www.almaz.com/nobel/peace/alpha.html). Similarly, Nelson Mandela and Frederik de Klerk received the prize in 1993 for their work in ending apartheid [[^]](https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-list-of-nobel-peace-prize-winners/)[[^]](http://www.almaz.com/nobel/peace/alpha.html). Other individuals acknowledged for their diplomatic efforts or peace initiatives include Barack Obama in 2009 and Jimmy Carter in 2002 [[^]](https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-list-of-nobel-peace-prize-winners/)[[^]](http://www.almaz.com/nobel/peace/alpha.html)[[^]](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Winners-of-the-Nobel-Prize-for-Peace-1856940).

Conversely, organizations receive recognition for collective work in cooperation, aid, and disarmament. Large-scale organizations have been recognized for their collective efforts in broader areas, such as fostering international cooperation, humanitarian aid, and disarmament, since early in the prize's history [[^]](https://quakernobel.org/criteria)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Peace_Prize_laureates)[[^]](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Winners-of-the-Nobel-Prize-for-Peace-1856940). Examples include the European Union, honored in 2012 for advancing peace and reconciliation, and the International Atomic Energy Agency, recognized in 2005 for preventing the military use of nuclear energy [[^]](https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-list-of-nobel-peace-prize-winners/)[[^]](https://www.voanews.com/a/fact-box-organizations-that-have-won-nobel-peace-prize/1525287.html). Organizations like the International Committee of the Red Cross have been honored multiple times for their humanitarian work [[^]](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/10/complete-list-of-nobel-peace-prize-winners-1901), and environmental groups such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change received the prize in 2007 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Peace_Prize_laureates)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-peace-prizes/)[[^]](https://charterforcompassion.org/news-events/special-events/world-summit/organizations-awarded-the-nobel-peace-prize.html). The Nobel Committee maintains strict secrecy around all nominations for 50 years [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/nomination/).

## What is the official timeline and set of procedures the Norwegian Nobel Committee will follow from the nomination deadline to the October 9, 2026 announcement?

Nomination Deadline | January 31, 2026, with 287 valid nominations [[^]](https://www.thelocal.no/20260430/norwegian-nobel-institute-receives-287-peace-prize-nominations)[[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2026) |
Announcement Date | October 9, 2026 (11:00 CEST) [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/kiniyoutube/posts/2026-prize-will-be-announced-on-october-9-in-oslo287-candidates-in-the-runninggr/1495162345736450/)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/press-release/the-2026-nobel-prize-announcements/) |
First Committee Meeting | February 26, 2026 [[^]](https://www.thelocal.no/20260430/norwegian-nobel-institute-receives-287-peace-prize-nominations)[[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2026) |

**The Nobel Peace Prize process begins with nominations and initial committee review**

The Nobel Peace Prize process begins with nominations and initial committee review. The official timeline for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize commenced with the nomination deadline on January 31, 2026, which yielded 287 valid nominations [[^]](https://www.thelocal.no/20260430/norwegian-nobel-institute-receives-287-peace-prize-nominations)[[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2026). Following the receipt of submissions in mid-February, the Norwegian Nobel Committee holds its first meeting on February 26, 2026, where it considers additional nominations and establishes an initial shortlist of 20-30 candidates for expert review [[^]](https://www.thelocal.no/20260430/norwegian-nobel-institute-receives-287-peace-prize-nominations)[[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2026)[[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/nomination/the-nomination-process)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/).

A rigorous expert review process significantly narrows the candidate pool. From mid-February through September, the Committee conducts regular meetings and commissions multiple expert reports. This continuous evaluation progressively reduces the number of candidates under consideration [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/nomination/the-nomination-process)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize)[[^]](https://nobelprize.org/nomination/questions-and-answers-about-the-nomination-process-for-a-nobel-peace-prize).

The final laureate decision in September precedes the public announcement. The ultimate selection of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate typically occurs through a simple majority vote between mid-September and late September. This decision is final and cannot be appealed [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize)[[^]](https://nobelprize.org/nomination/questions-and-answers-about-the-nomination-process-for-a-nobel-peace-prize). The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner will be officially announced at 11:00 CEST on October 9, 2026, from the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/kiniyoutube/posts/2026-prize-will-be-announced-on-october-9-in-oslo287-candidates-in-the-runninggr/1495162345736450/)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/press-release/the-2026-nobel-prize-announcements/).

## Could a major ruling or intervention by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) before October 2026 directly impact its own standing as a Nobel Peace Prize candidate?

Nobel Nomination Deadline | Before 1 February of the award year [[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/about/special-regulations-for-the-award-of-the-nobel-peace-prize/) |
ICJ Impact on Nobel Standing | No direct impact on its own Nobel Peace Prize candidate standing before October 2026 [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-committee/the-committee-s-mission) |
ICJ Members as Nominators | Eligible nominators for the Nobel Peace Prize [[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/about/special-regulations-for-the-award-of-the-nobel-peace-prize/)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/peace/) |

**A major ruling or intervention by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) before October 2026 would not directly alter its standing as a Nobel Peace Prize candidate**

A major ruling or intervention by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) before October 2026 would not directly alter its standing as a Nobel Peace Prize candidate. The documentation regarding the Nobel Peace Prize does not outline any mechanism through which a future ICJ ruling would automatically change the ICJ’s candidacy status [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-committee/the-committee-s-mission).

Nobel Peace Prize eligibility centers on nominators, not ICJ rulings. Nominations must be submitted to the Norwegian Nobel Committee by February 1st of the award year [[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/about/special-regulations-for-the-award-of-the-nobel-peace-prize/). Members of the International Court of Justice in The Hague are themselves eligible to submit nominations, which highlights that eligibility criteria pertain to the qualifications of the nominator, rather than requiring a re-evaluation of the ICJ’s own status following specific court rulings [[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/about/special-regulations-for-the-award-of-the-nobel-peace-prize/)[[^]](https://www.nobelprize.org/peace/). The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s primary objective is to grant the prize to the individual or organization that has delivered the most substantial benefit to humankind in the field of peace during the preceding year [[^]](https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-committee/the-committee-s-mission).

ICJ rulings indirectly influence prediction **market** beliefs, not rules. For prediction markets, such as those for the “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026” that resolve based on the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s official announcement, an ICJ ruling before October 2026 could only have an indirect effect. This impact would be through shifting public or trader beliefs about potential winners, rather than by modifying any formal eligibility regulations [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139/will-pope-leo-xiv-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-698)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Geopolitical events are identified as key catalysts, with the potential to shift market odds by 8-15% [[^]](https://www.predictionmarketnews.co/2026-nobel-peace-prize-predictions-analyzing-market-odds/).** An illustrative example of such an event is a 'Trump charter' [[^]](https://www.predictionmarketnews.co/2026-nobel-peace-prize-predictions-analyzing-**market**-odds/). Additionally, **market** volatility can be exacerbated by information asymmetry and the risks of manipulation [[^]](https://www.predictionmarketnews.co/2026-nobel-peace-prize-predictions-analyzing-**market**-odds/).

**While certain candidates like Yulia Navalnaya, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Donald Trump currently hold notable implied probabilities on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictionHunt [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139/will-julian-assange-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-899)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139/will-pope-leo-xiv-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-698)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139/will-khaled-mashal-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-787)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnobelpeace/nobel-peace-prize/kxnobelpeace-26)[[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026), future major geopolitical developments involving these figures or other nominated individuals and organizations could serve as significant catalysts [[^]](https://www.daily-sun.com/world/871980/287-nominations-for-nobel-peace-prize-2026-institute)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/some-287-nominated-2026-nobel-peace-prize-trump-likely-among-them-2026-04-30/).** For example, Donald Trump has already received nominations from leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan [[^]](https://www.daily-sun.com/world/871980/287-nominations-for-nobel-peace-prize-2026-institute)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/some-287-nominated-2026-nobel-peace-prize-trump-likely-among-them-2026-04-30/). Any newsworthy actions or shifts in global affairs related to the 287 total nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations) could alter **market** probabilities leading up to the resolution period [[^]](https://www.daily-sun.com/world/871980/287-nominations-for-nobel-peace-prize-2026-institute)[[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/some-287-nominated-2026-nobel-peace-prize-trump-likely-among-them-2026-04-30/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** December 31, 2026
- **Closes:** January 01, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Geopolitical events are identified as key catalysts, with the potential to shift **market** odds by 8-**15%** [^] .
- An illustrative example of such an event is a 'Trump charter' [^] .
- Additionally, **market** volatility can be exacerbated by information asymmetry and the risks of manipulation [^] .
- While certain candidates like Yulia Navalnaya, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Donald Trump currently hold notable implied probabilities on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictionHunt [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] , future major geopolitical developments involving these figures or other nominated individuals and organizations could serve as significant catalysts [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

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