# Who will be Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift? Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift wedding Updated: April 27, 2026 Category: Entertainment Tags: People HTML: /markets/entertainment/people/who-will-be-groomsman-for-the-wedding-of-travis-kelce-and-taylor-swift/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Patrick Mahomes to be a groomsman, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Travis Kelce served as Best Man at his brother Jason Kelce's wedding.** - Patrick and Brittany Mahomes have the most documented interactions with the couple. - Aric Jones and Kumar Ferguson are deeply integrated childhood friends of Travis. - Jason Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are expected to acknowledge an engagement first. - The **market** has seen significant **probability** declines in recent trading periods. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** At 86c, **market** prices Jason Kelce 4.5pp higher than the **81.5%** **model** estimate, suggesting overvaluation. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Patrick Mahomes | 87.0% | 82.9% | Patrick Mahomes is Travis Kelce's star quarterback and close personal friend. | | Jason Kelce | 86.0% | 81.5% | As Travis Kelce's brother, Jason is an obvious and traditional choice for a groomsman. | | Austin Swift | 85.0% | 80.2% | Austin Swift, as Taylor Swift's brother, is a highly probable choice for a groomsman. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Patrick Mahomes | 87.0% | 82.9% | | Jason Kelce | 86.0% | 81.5% | | Austin Swift | 85.0% | 80.2% | | Aric Jones | 56.0% | 44.1% | | Kumar Ferguson | 46.0% | 33.1% | | Harrison Butker | 1.0% | 0.3% | - Expiration: January 1, 2030 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This analysis interprets the price action for the prediction market concerning Jason Kelce being a groomsman at the potential wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. The market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern since its inception, with prices confined to a narrow 8-point range between 86% and 94%. The price opened at 88%, briefly peaked at 94%, and currently trades near the bottom of its range at 86%. This price action establishes a clear support level around the 86% mark and a resistance level at 94%. The overall stability and high probability indicate that traders entered the market with a strong baseline assumption of this outcome. The minor fluctuations within this range, such as the rise to 94% and the subsequent fall to 86%, occurred without any specific corresponding news or developments provided in the market context. Therefore, these price movements cannot be attributed to external events and likely reflect internal market dynamics, such as traders testing the market's limits or reacting to small shifts in order flow. The total traded volume of 1,278 contracts suggests moderate interest, but the sample data points show zero volume, indicating that trading activity is likely sporadic and occurs in bursts rather than consistently day-to-day. Overall, the chart reflects a market with a very high and unwavering conviction that Jason Kelce will be a groomsman. The price has never dipped below 86%, signaling a strong consensus and a collective belief that this is an almost certain event. The tight trading range suggests that the market is mature and has fully priced in the high likelihood of this outcome, with current activity consisting of minor adjustments rather than significant shifts in sentiment. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: Kumar Ferguson #### 📉 April 27, 2026: 35.0pp drop Price decreased from 81.0% to 46.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 21, 2026: 11.0pp drop Price decreased from 56.0% to 45.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Austin Swift #### 📉 April 25, 2026: 8.0pp drop Price decreased from 93.0% to 85.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 19, 2026: 37.0pp spike Price increased from 56.0% to 93.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: Patrick Mahomes #### 📉 April 15, 2026: 9.0pp drop Price decreased from 77.0% to 68.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot A "Yes" resolution occurs if Aric Jones serves as a Groomsman at the actual wedding ceremony of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift before January 1, 2030, including as a substitute or in one of multiple ceremonies. A "No" resolution is triggered if he does not serve in the specified role, is listed but doesn't participate, if the wedding is canceled or indefinitely postponed beyond the deadline, or if only a legal marriage without a ceremony takes place. The market opened September 3, 2025, and will close by January 1, 2030, or earlier if the outcome is confirmed, with resolution based on official announcements and major media reports like The New York Times, People Magazine, and Vogue. ## Market Discussion Traders are actively discussing potential groomsmen for Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's wedding, with Austin Swift currently favored at 85%. Key arguments against Austin Swift serving cite a lack of tradition for the bride's brother in that role, while some traders express general doubt about whether the wedding itself will occur. There were also questions about whether a best man counts as a groomsman, and suggestions for adding other potential candidates to the market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Aric Jones | 56% | 57% | 56% | $4,584.31 | $2,562.3 | | Austin Swift | 83% | 88% | 85% | $5,259.46 | $2,713.16 | | Harrison Butker | 1% | 5% | 1% | $650.22 | $534.22 | | Jason Kelce | 87% | 93% | 86% | $6,107.79 | $3,972.33 | | Kumar Ferguson | 52% | 63% | 46% | $3,811.72 | $548.44 | | Patrick Mahomes | 90% | 93% | 87% | $12,460.18 | $5,657.11 | ## What Was Travis Kelce's Role at Jason Kelce's Wedding? Jason Kelce's Wedding Date | April 2018 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23216316/philadelphia-eagles-center-jason-kelce-gets-married) | Travis Kelce's Attendance | Confirmed [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23216316/philadelphia-eagles-center-jason-kelce-gets-married) | Travis Kelce's Wedding Role | Not specified [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23216316/philadelphia-eagles-center-jason-kelce-gets-married) | **Jason Kelce married Kylie McDevitt in April 2018** Jason Kelce married Kylie McDevitt in April 2018. The wedding took place in April 2018, and his brother, Travis Kelce, was confirmed to be among the attendees [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23216316/philadelphia-eagles-center-jason-kelce-gets-married). Travis Kelce's specific role in the wedding remains undisclosed. While his presence at the event is confirmed, the available sources do not provide details on his particular capacity within Jason Kelce's wedding party, such as whether he served as a groomsman, Best Man, or in another defined role [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23216316/philadelphia-eagles-center-jason-kelce-gets-married). Information regarding Jason Kelce's Best Man and groomsmen is unavailable. The research does not specify who Jason Kelce chose as his Best Man or other groomsmen for his wedding to Kylie McDevitt. Consequently, a direct family precedent for these specific roles cannot be established from the provided sources [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23216316/philadelphia-eagles-center-jason-kelce-gets-married). ## How Many Groomsmen Do High-Profile NFL Players Typically Have? Specific Groomsmen Count | Not consistently available in research [[^]](https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/josh-allen-wedding-multiple-bills-players-appear-standing-as-groomsmen-hailee-steinfeld-ceremony) | Josh Allen's Teammate Groomsmen | Multiple/several Bills' players [[^]](https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/josh-allen-wedding-multiple-bills-players-appear-standing-as-groomsmen-hailee-steinfeld-ceremony) | Patrick Mahomes Best Man | Brother, Jackson Mahomes [[^]](https://people.com/sports/patrick-mahomes-brittany-matthews-wedding-married-kansas-city-chiefs-quarterback/) | **High-profile NFL players often include teammates in their wedding parties** High-profile NFL players often include teammates in their wedding parties. While specific numerical data regarding the exact number of groomsmen for high-profile NFL players over the last five years is not consistently available, research indicates a clear trend of including current teammates in their wedding parties. For instance, at Bills quarterback Josh Allen's wedding, multiple Bills players were observed standing as groomsmen [[^]](https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/josh-allen-wedding-multiple-bills-players-appear-standing-as-groomsmen-hailee-steinfeld-ceremony). Similarly, Patrick Mahomes selected his brother, Jackson Mahomes, as his best man [[^]](https://people.com/sports/patrick-mahomes-brittany-matthews-wedding-married-kansas-city-chiefs-quarterback/), and Eagles teammates attended Jordan Mailata's wedding [[^]](https://www.brides.com/philadelphia-eagles-jordan-mailata-romantic-northern-california-wedding-greg-finck-8285881), further supporting the inclusion of professional peers. A substantial groomsmen count allows for diverse relationship representation. The qualitative descriptions of "multiple" or "several" teammates being included suggest that the total number of groomsmen for high-profile NFL players is likely substantial. This approach allows for a blend of relationships, accommodating both long-standing childhood friends and significant figures from a player's current professional life, such as teammates. The capacity to include numerous teammates implies a larger wedding party size, enabling players to recognize key individuals from different chapters of their lives without severe limitation. ## Which Couple Most Interacts with Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce? Documented Double Dates | Las Vegas [[^]](https://people.com/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-patrick-brittany-mahomes-las-vegas-date-night-8640095), New Orleans [[^]](https://people.com/inside-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-double-date-with-brittany-patrick-mahomes-new-orleans-exclusive-8788516), Pre-Super Bowl 2025 [[^]](https://www.eonline.com/news/1413210/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-double-date-with-brittany-and-patrick-mahomes-ahead-of-super-bowl-2025), New York City [[^]](https://clutchpoints.com/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-enjoy-double-date-out-in-nyc-with-patrick-brittany-mahomes) | Other Shared Events | Epic charity gala [[^]](https://people.com/brittany-mahomes-reflects-on-charity-gala-with-husband-patrick-travis-kelce-taylor-swift-photos-8640169), Brittany's 30th birthday [[^]](https://gridironheroics.com/look-taylor-swift-joins-brittany-mahomes-party/) | Mahomes' Stance | Expressed happiness and support for the relationship [[^]](https://people.com/patrick-and-brittany-mahomes-react-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-engagement-11797926) | **Patrick and Brittany Mahomes demonstrate the most documented, non-obligatory social interactions with Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, indicating a strong 'couple-friend' relationship** Patrick and Brittany Mahomes demonstrate the most documented, non-obligatory social interactions with Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, indicating a strong 'couple-friend' relationship. These interactions include multiple double dates and group outings since Swift and Kelce's relationship began. Specific instances highlight this dynamic, such as a date night in Las Vegas [[^]](https://people.com/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-patrick-brittany-mahomes-las-vegas-date-night-8640095), a double date in New Orleans [[^]](https://people.com/inside-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-double-date-with-brittany-patrick-mahomes-new-orleans-exclusive-8788516), another double date ahead of Super Bowl 2025 [[^]](https://www.eonline.com/news/1413210/taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-double-date-with-brittany-and-patrick-mahomes-ahead-of-super-bowl-2025), and an outing in New York City [[^]](https://clutchpoints.com/taylor-swift-travis-kelce-enjoy-double-date-out-in-nyc-with-patrick-brittany-mahomes). These engagements collectively underscore a robust couple-to-couple connection. Brittany Mahomes also has a significant individual friendship with Taylor Swift, extending beyond the group settings. A documented timeline chronicles their developing bond [[^]](https://www.today.com/popculture/taylor-swift-brittany-mahomes-rcna121662), which includes Swift joining Brittany Mahomes to celebrate her 30th birthday [[^]](https://gridironheroics.com/look-taylor-swift-joins-brittany-mahomes-party/). Brittany has also reflected on an 'epic' charity gala attended by both couples [[^]](https://people.com/brittany-mahomes-reflects-on-charity-gala-with-husband-patrick-travis-kelce-taylor-swift-photos-8640169). Furthermore, Patrick and Brittany Mahomes have openly expressed their happiness and support for the relationship between Swift and Kelce [[^]](https://people.com/patrick-and-brittany-mahomes-react-taylor-swift-travis-kelce-engagement-11797926). While a friendship timeline for Taylor Swift and Kylie Kelce is available [[^]](https://www.elle.com/culture/celebrities/a67951431/taylor-swift-kylie-kelce-relationship-timeline/), research indicates that Patrick and Brittany Mahomes have the most extensively detailed and numerous publicly documented couple-friend interactions with Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. ## How Involved Are Aric Jones and Kumar Ferguson in Travis Kelce's Life? Relationship to Kelce | Childhood best friends and part of inner circle [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/travis-kelce-friends-wedding-groomsmen/) | Event Presence | Frequently attend NFL games in Kelce's suite [[^]](https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/entertainment/article/3257071/who-are-travis-kelces-6-bffs-fellow-kansas-city-chiefs-teammate-patrick-mahomes-childhood-friends?module=inline&pgtype=article) | Public Engagement | Aric Jones celebrated Taylor Swift's album in April 2024 [[^]](https://people.com/travis-kelce-close-friend-aric-jones-celebrates-taylor-swift-new-album-8636193) | **Aric Jones and Kumar Ferguson remain deeply integrated into Travis Kelce's life** Aric Jones and Kumar Ferguson remain deeply integrated into Travis Kelce's life. These childhood friends are consistently referred to as central figures, "longtime best friends," and among Kelce's "closest confidantes" [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/travis-kelce-friends-wedding-groomsmen/). Their active involvement is demonstrated by their consistent presence in Kelce's suites at NFL games, where they are seated alongside his family members and girlfriend, Taylor Swift [[^]](https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/entertainment/article/3257071/who-are-travis-kelces-6-bffs-fellow-kansas-city-chiefs-teammate-patrick-mahomes-childhood-friends?module=inline&pgtype=article). This regular visibility at high-profile events, in the company of his closest relations and current partner, underscores their ongoing integration into his personal and social life. Specific recent actions highlight their active involvement in Kelce's life. Within the past 24 months, Aric Jones publicly celebrated Taylor Swift's album release via Instagram in April 2024, showcasing his engagement with significant aspects of Kelce's current personal life [[^]](https://people.com/travis-kelce-close-friend-aric-jones-celebrates-taylor-swift-new-album-8636193). Jones has also been quoted discussing Kelce's relationship with Swift, providing insights that suggest ongoing close communication and a shared personal connection [[^]](https://people.com/meet-aric-jones-travis-kelce-longtime-best-friend-exclusive-8572364). Furthermore, Jones and Ferguson are identified as "potential groomsmen" and "prominent figures in any future wedding" for Travis Kelce, indicating a deep and lasting commitment to these relationships [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/travis-kelce-friends-wedding-groomsmen/). Their consistent identification as integral members of Kelce's "inner circle" and their physical presence at high-profile events alongside his family emphasize the enduring strength of these pre-fame friendships [[^]](https://people.com/meet-aric-jones-travis-kelce-longtime-best-friend-exclusive-8572364). ## Who Would Be First to Know About a Travis Kelce Engagement? Top Groomsman Candidate Odds | Patrick Mahomes up to 98% or 95 cents [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtraviskelcewedding/travis-kelce-wedding/kxtraviskelcewedding-30jan01) | Brother's Groomsman Status | Jason Kelce considered a 'shoe-in' [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/travis-kelce-friends-wedding-groomsmen/) | Immediate Awareness & Presence | Jason Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Aric Jones, Anthony Stolar [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/travis-kelce-friends-wedding-groomsmen/) | **Jason Kelce and Patrick Mahomes will likely lead immediate public acknowledgements** Jason Kelce and Patrick Mahomes will likely lead immediate public acknowledgements. Upon a hypothetical engagement announcement, Travis Kelce's older brother Jason Kelce and close friend Patrick Mahomes are the most likely individuals to be immediately present for any celebration and among the first to acknowledge the news publicly. Jason Kelce is described as a 'shoe-in' for a groomsman and co-hosts a podcast with Travis, providing a direct public platform [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/travis-kelce-friends-wedding-groomsmen/). Similarly, Patrick Mahomes, a close friend and teammate, is a leading candidate for a groomsman, with prediction markets indicating odds as high as **98%** or trading at 95 cents for him to serve in the role [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtraviskelcewedding/travis-kelce-wedding/kxtraviskelcewedding-30jan01). Close childhood friends Aric Jones and Anthony 'Tony' Stolar are also part of Kelce's inner circle and would be expected to be informed quickly and potentially attend immediate private celebrations [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/meet-travis-kelce-inner-circle-120416413.html). Key individuals will utilize public platforms for early announcements. Jason Kelce is highly probable to be among the first to post or comment due to his public platform via the 'New Heights' podcast and active social media presence, where he often reflects on Travis's personal life [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/travis-kelce-friends-wedding-groomsmen/). Patrick Mahomes, as a high-profile athlete, would also be a central figure whose reaction would be widely sought by media, potentially leading to an early public statement or social media post. All individuals in Travis Kelce's close inner circle—including Jason Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Aric Jones, and Tony Stolar—could be featured in 'insider' media reports, as their proximity to Kelce would make their insights valuable for news outlets seeking details about the engagement [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/travis-kelce-friends-wedding-groomsmen/). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** January 08, 2030 - **Closes:** January 01, 2030 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [GTA 6 release date?](/markets/entertainment/video-games/gta-6-release-date/) - [Who will be cast in the next Miami Vice?](/markets/entertainment/movies/who-will-be-cast-in-the-next-miami-vice/) - [Will Tom Cruise be cast in another Film With Ana de Armas?](/markets/entertainment/movies/will-tom-cruise-be-cast-in-another-film-with-ana-de-armas/) - [2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Castilian Spanish)?](/markets/entertainment/anime-awards/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-voice-artist-performance-castilian-spanish/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.