# When will Young Thug and Gunna make a song together? Before 2030 Updated: April 27, 2026 Category: Entertainment Tags: Music HTML: /markets/entertainment/music/when-will-young-thug-and-gunna-make-a-song-together/ ## Short Answer **The model sees potential mispricing: Young Thug and Gunna making a song together before 2030 at 38.5% model versus 57.0% market.** This suggests that significant obstacles, including Young Thug's feelings of betrayal, his ongoing legal trial, and YSL's distancing from Gunna, make a collaboration unlikely before 2030. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Young Thug explicitly communicated feelings of betrayal towards Gunna.** - YSL has publicly distanced itself from Gunna, creating collaboration obstacles. - Young Thug's ongoing YSL RICO trial lacks a definitive timeline. - Gunna's recent album "The Last Wun" signals his YSL departure. - Significant reconciliation is required to overcome current collaboration obstacles. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** Despite a 3.8x payout at 26c, Young Thug's betrayal feelings and ongoing trial make collaboration before 2030 unlikely. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Before 2027 | 26.0% | 15.4% | Young Thug's betrayal feelings, ongoing trial, and YSL's distancing make near-term collaboration very unlikely. | | Before 2028 | 45.0% | 28.4% | Significant reconciliation is needed to overcome Young Thug's betrayal and his ongoing legal challenges. | | Before 2029 | 40.0% | 28.4% | Overcoming Young Thug's betrayal, his trial, and YSL's distancing requires substantial time and effort. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Before 2027 | 26.0% | 15.4% | | Before 2028 | 45.0% | 28.4% | | Before 2029 | 40.0% | 28.4% | | Before 2030 | 57.0% | 38.5% | - Expiration: January 1, 2030 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market, which asks if Young Thug and Gunna will release a song together before 2030, has shown a distinct downward trend since its inception. The market opened with a 33.0% probability, which served as the initial high point. A significant price drop occurred around April 25, 2026, when the probability fell from 33.0% to 26.0%. Since this drop, the price has stabilized, trading within a narrow range between 25.0% and its current level of 26.0%. The initial 33.0% price acts as a resistance level, while a new support level appears to have formed around the 25.0% to 26.0% mark. The cause for the significant drop in perceived probability is not apparent from the provided context. Without any specific news or external events to correlate with the price action, the shift in sentiment appears to be driven by internal market dynamics rather than a reaction to a public development. The market's trading volume is extremely low, with only 15 contracts traded in total across all data points. This suggests very limited participation and low liquidity. Such low volume means that price movements can be caused by a very small number of trades and may not reflect a broad consensus. Overall, the chart indicates a pessimistic shift in market sentiment. The initial one-in-three chance of a collaboration has fallen to roughly a one-in-four chance. However, the lack of significant trading volume suggests that this sentiment is held by only a few market participants, and there is not strong conviction behind the current price. The market's stability at the 26.0% level indicates a pause in bearish activity, but the low liquidity makes the current price sensitive to even minor trading activity in the future. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if Young Thug and Gunna release a song together between September 30, 2025, and January 1, 2030, verifiable by a specified list of music and media sources. If no such song is released within this timeframe, the market resolves to NO. The market closes early upon the event's occurrence, or otherwise by January 1, 2030, at 10:00 am EST. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Before 2027 | 26% | 36% | 26% | $261 | $219 | | Before 2028 | 35% | 45% | 45% | $93 | $28 | | Before 2029 | 40% | 50% | 40% | $52.66 | $15.66 | | Before 2030 | 46% | 56% | 57% | $46 | $36 | ## What is Young Thug's Inner Circle Sentiment Towards Gunna? Young Thug's Stance | Explicitly expressed feelings of betrayal [[^]](https://rollingstoneindia.com/young-thug-tearfully-speaks-on-gunnas-betrayal-in-new-interview/) | Young Thug's Association | Cannot be around Gunna due to situation [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/music/rb-hip-hop/young-thug-gunna-relationship-2025-1236078373/) | YSL Records Action | Removed all references to Gunna from Instagram [[^]](https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/903421-ysl-removes-gunna-instagram-hip-hop-news) | **Young Thug directly communicated feelings of betrayal towards Gunna’s plea deal** Young Thug directly communicated feelings of betrayal towards Gunna’s plea deal. He has explicitly expressed these sentiments regarding the YSL RICO case, tearfully speaking about Gunna's "betrayal" in interviews [[^]](https://rollingstoneindia.com/young-thug-tearfully-speaks-on-gunnas-betrayal-in-new-interview/). Furthermore, Young Thug stated he cannot be around Gunna due to the situation that followed the plea deal [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/music/rb-hip-hop/young-thug-gunna-relationship-2025-1236078373/). This strong personal stance from Young Thug, a central figure, indicates a negative private sentiment among his closest associates, including family members and his legal team, who are likely to align with his perspective. YSL Records’ public actions reflect a clear sentiment of disapproval. The label, founded by Young Thug, reportedly removed all references to Gunna from its official Instagram page [[^]](https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/903421-ysl-removes-gunna-instagram-hip-hop-news), effectively erasing his presence from their social media. This move by YSL Records serves as a significant coded signal, indicating a collective negative sentiment or a decision to separate ties. Such a sentiment would likely be shared by YSL artists like Strick and other individuals affiliated with the label. ## What is the commercial impact of Gunna and Young Thug's albums, and reunion efforts? Gunna Album Debut | No. 3 on the Billboard 200 with 74,000 equivalent album units [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/pro/gunna-gift-and-a-curse-number-1-rb-hip-hop-albums-chart/) | Young Thug Album Debut | No. 2 on the Billboard 200 with 89,000 equivalent album units [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/pro/young-thug-business-is-business-number-1-top-rb-hip-hop-albums-chart/) | Label Reunion Effort | 300 Entertainment CEO Kevin Liles desires reconciliation, but Young Thug rejected it [[^]](https://www.xxlmag.com/kevin-liles-interview-inside-track-podcast/) | **Both Gunna's and Young Thug's albums achieved significant commercial success** Both Gunna's and Young Thug's albums achieved significant commercial success. Gunna's 'A Gift & a Curse' debuted at No. 1 on Billboard’s Top R&B/Hip-Hop Albums chart and No. 3 on the all-genre Billboard 200, moving 74,000 equivalent album units in its first week [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/pro/gunna-gift-and-a-curse-number-1-rb-hip-hop-albums-chart/). Similarly, Young Thug's 'Business Is Business' premiered at No. 1 on the Top R&B/Hip-Hop Albums chart and No. 2 on the Billboard 200, earning 89,000 equivalent album units in its first week [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/pro/young-thug-business-is-business-number-1-top-rb-hip-hop-albums-chart/). These strong chart debuts and sales figures demonstrate that both artists retain substantial commercial appeal, bolstering the financial calculus and **market** relevance for their shared record label ecosystem, including YSL Records, 300 Entertainment, and Atlantic Records [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.com/wiki/A_Gift_%26_a_Curse). A prominent label executive has publicly expressed a desire for a reunion. Kevin Liles, CEO of 300 Entertainment, conveyed his hope for reconciliation, stating, "I think people have to realize that this is a family... And families go through things. But families always make up... I love both of them and it breaks my heart to see them at odds" [[^]](https://www.xxlmag.com/kevin-liles-interview-inside-track-podcast/). While this statement from a senior label figure indicates a wish for their resolution, it does not specify active steps or a concrete strategy by the labels to "engineer" a reunion. Furthermore, any such efforts face significant hurdles due to the artists' personal stances; Young Thug has explicitly rejected a reunion with Gunna [[^]](https://balleralert.com/profiles/blogs/young-thug-breaks-ties-with-gunna/), despite Gunna affirming his continued affiliation with YSL and expressing love for Young Thug [[^]](https://hiphopdx.com/news/gunna-young-thug-ysl-label-relationship). Therefore, immediate prospects for a commercially engineered reunion appear constrained by the artists' current public positions. ## What is the Latest Update on Young Thug's YSL RICO Trial? Young Thug's Plea Status | Trial ongoing; no plea deal taken [[^]](https://www.mensjournal.com/news/young-thug-guilty-receives-sentence-in-rico-case) | Gunna's Plea Status | Entered Alford plea and released (December 2022) [[^]](https://rollingstone.com/music/music-news/gunna-plea-ysl-gang-case-release-from-jail-1234647626) | Young Thug Trial Timeline | No definitive resolution timeline provided [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/lists/young-thug-ysl-rico-trial-timeline/) | **The Young Thug YSL RICO trial currently lacks a definitive timeline** The Young Thug YSL RICO trial currently lacks a definitive timeline. Young Thug's racketeering case is ongoing, and despite some misleading reports, he has not accepted a plea deal [[^]](https://www.mensjournal.com/news/young-thug-guilty-receives-sentence-in-rico-case). Jury selection for the trial commenced in January 2023 [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/lists/young-thug-ysl-rico-trial-timeline/). Given the intricate nature of the racketeering allegations, which involve multiple defendants and witnesses, the available sources do not provide a clear timeframe for a resolution, whether through a verdict, plea, or mistrial [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YSL_Records_racketeering_trial). Gunna's Alford plea contains no explicit professional collaboration restrictions. Sergio Kitchens, known as Gunna, entered an Alford plea on December 14, 2022, which led to his release from jail [[^]](https://rollingstone.com/music/music-news/gunna-plea-ysl-gang-case-release-from-jail-1234647626). This type of plea permits a defendant to assert innocence while still pleading guilty and acknowledging that the prosecution possesses sufficient evidence for conviction [[^]](https://rollingstone.com/music/music-news/gunna-plea-ysl-gang-case-release-from-jail-1234647626). Following his release, Gunna publicly affirmed that he did not cooperate with prosecutors or "flip" on Young Thug [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/business/legal/gunna-pleads-guilty-hasnt-flipped-young-thug-1235187008/). The available research does not detail any specific no-contact provisions or other legal stipulations within Gunna's plea agreement that would overtly complicate a professional collaboration with Young Thug after his case concludes. However, Young Thug reportedly intended to request a stipulation allowing collaboration if he had taken a plea deal [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/young-thug-allowed-collab-gunna-153512761.html). ## Is Gunna Moving Toward Independence From YSL? Album Status | "The Last Wun" characterized as "final YSL album" [[^]](https://www.revolt.tv/article/gunna-makes-statement-with-final-ysl-album-the-last-wun) | New Collaborations | Confirmed joint album with Offset [[^]](https://thesource.com/2025/09/23/gunna-confirms-joint-album-with-offset-its-already-in-the-works/) | Independent Touring | Announced global "Wun World Tour" for 2025/2026 [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/music/rb-hip-hop/gunna-dates-2025-2026-wun-world-tour-1236082516/) | **Gunna's recent album, "The Last Wun," signals his departure from YSL** Gunna's recent album, "The Last Wun," signals his departure from YSL. The album, released as "The Last Wun" [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Wun), is widely described as his "final YSL album" [[^]](https://www.revolt.tv/article/gunna-makes-statement-with-final-ysl-album-the-last-wun), explicitly closing his professional chapter with the YSL brand [[^]](https://allhiphop.com/news/gunna-the-last-wun-possible-farewell-ysl-records/). Reviews characterize the album as both a "farewell" and a "flex" [[^]](https://au.rollingstone.com/music/music-album-reviews/gunna-the-last-wun-review-81334/), emphasizing a narrative of self-reliance where Gunna is depicted "all alone and feeling the pressure" [[^]](https://au.rollingstone.com/music/music-album-reviews/gunna-the-last-wun-review-81334/). This lyrical and thematic framing directly implies a reduced incentive or desire to reunite professionally under the YSL brand. Gunna is strategically building an independent career through new collaborations and tours. He has publicly confirmed an upcoming joint album with Offset, a prominent artist from Migos, indicating a significant collaboration outside the YSL collective [[^]](https://thesource.com/2025/09/23/gunna-confirms-joint-album-with-offset-its-already-in-the-works/). This partnership with an established industry figure distinct from YSL demonstrates an active effort to expand his professional network and artistic partnerships independently. Furthermore, Gunna's announcement of his "Wun World Tour," a global outing scheduled for 2025/2026, showcases his capacity to headline a large-scale international tour as a solo artist [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/music/rb-hip-hop/gunna-dates-2025-2026-wun-world-tour-1236082516/). This independent touring strategy, without overt YSL affiliations, reinforces his self-sufficiency and dedication to an autonomous career. ## What Are Key Indicators for Young Thug and Gunna's Reconciliation? 21 Savage's Mediation Role | Actively attempting to mediate between Young Thug and Gunna, previously resolved Young Thug/YFN Lucci feud [[^]](https://www.rap-up.com/article/21-savage-gunna-young-thug-beef-reconciliation). | Young Thug's Father's Efforts | Reportedly attempted to mediate the dispute [[^]](https://www.rap-up.com/article/21-savage-gunna-young-thug-beef-reconciliation). | Strongest Reconciliation Signal | Release of a new track featuring both artists, joint public appearance, or direct co-sign from Young Thug [[^]](https://musicbrainz.org/artist-credit/4541922). | **21 Savage is a credible mediator for Young Thug and Gunna** 21 Savage is a credible mediator for Young Thug and Gunna. He is a high-profile industry figure with documented trust and influence to help resolve the dispute between the two artists [[^]](https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/964790-21-savage-conflicted-thoughts-young-thug-gunna-beef-hip-hop-news). 21 Savage has openly shared his conflicted feelings about the situation but maintains optimism that Gunna can repair his relationship with Young Thug [[^]](https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/964790-21-savage-conflicted-thoughts-young-thug-gunna-beef-hip-hop-news). Critically, 21 Savage, alongside Young Thug's father, has reportedly intervened, urging reconciliation with the statement, "Y'all love each other" [[^]](https://www.rap-up.com/article/21-savage-gunna-young-thug-beef-reconciliation). His strong credibility is further established by his past success in mediating a significant feud between Young Thug and YFN Lucci [[^]](https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/964843-21-savage-helped-end-young-thug-yfn-lucci-feud-hip-hop-news). A new song featuring both artists signals active reconciliation. The most credible leading indicator that reconciliation between Young Thug and Gunna is actively in progress, particularly for a prediction **market** focused on a song together, would be the release of a new track featuring both artists. A definitive signal of collaboration would be a verified artist credit, such as "21 Savage & Gunna feat. Young Thug" or a similar combination [[^]](https://musicbrainz.org/artist-credit/4541922). Other strong indicators that would visibly demonstrate a mended relationship include a joint public appearance or a direct co-sign from Young Thug. While Young Thug's prior removal of a Gunna diss from a Lil Baby collaboration track might suggest a willingness to ease tensions, it does not confirm active reconciliation or future collaboration [[^]](https://hotnewhiphop.com/962874-young-thug-removes-gunna-diss-lil-baby-hip-hop-news). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** January 01, 2027 - **Closes:** January 01, 2030 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [GTA 6 release date?](/markets/entertainment/video-games/gta-6-release-date/) - [Who will be cast in the next Miami Vice?](/markets/entertainment/movies/who-will-be-cast-in-the-next-miami-vice/) - [Will Tom Cruise be cast in another Film With Ana de Armas?](/markets/entertainment/movies/will-tom-cruise-be-cast-in-another-film-with-ana-de-armas/) - [2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Castilian Spanish)?](/markets/entertainment/anime-awards/2026-crunchyroll-anime-award-for-best-anime-voice-artist-performance-castilian-spanish/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.