# What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?

At launch

Updated: April 27, 2026

Category: Entertainment

Tags: Music
Video games

HTML: /markets/entertainment/music/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** assigns meaningfully lower odds than the **market** for Despacito being on the GTA 6 radio at launch, predicting **35.2%** compared to the **market**'s **48.0%** for the most likely outcome.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Grand Theft Auto V launched with few Billboard Top 10 hits.** - GTA Online's radio diversified, embracing electronic subgenres and global music.
- Specific music licensing deal details for game soundtracks are unavailable.
- Rockstar Games consistently chooses cinematically prominent songs for its games.
- Grand Theft Auto soundtrack details historically emerge from pre-launch leaks.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** prices 19.8pp higher than **33%** **model**, despite GTA V launching with few mega-hits.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Despacito | 48.0% | 35.2% | "Despacito" was an iconic global hit, making it a strong candidate for a "modern classic" on a GTA 6 radio station, especially given the likely presence of a Latin-themed station in the Vice City setting; however, the background research indicates that only a small percentage (10.26%) of GTA V's contemporary launch songs were Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits, suggesting high selectivity and the song's 2017 release date might place it slightly outside the prime "contemporary hit" window for a 2025 GTA 6 launch. |
| Blinding Lights | 53.0% | 33.2% | While "Blinding Lights" is a monumental #1 hit and a strong candidate for inclusion, the historical precedent from GTA V indicates that Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits constituted only 10.26% of songs on its contemporary launch radio stations, making a 40.7% probability for a single specific track seem comparatively high. |
| Shape of You | 26.0% | 14.5% | The evidence shows that over 10% of GTA V's launch songs on contemporary stations were Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits, lending plausibility to "Shape of You," a global number one hit, being chosen; however, this 10% figure is an aggregate across many songs, and there are numerous other major hits that could also be selected, making a 14.5% probability for this specific song difficult to assess definitively from this data alone. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Despacito | 48.0% | 35.2% |
| Blinding Lights | 53.0% | 33.2% |
| Shape of You | 26.0% | 14.5% |
| God’s Plan | 35.0% | 22.2% |
| Look at Me! | 37.0% | 18.7% |
| Mask Off | 41.0% | 27.9% |
| Sicko Mode | 38.0% | 25.0% |
| XO Tour Llif3 | 26.0% | 14.5% |
| Rockstar | 36.0% | 23.1% |
| Bad and Boujee | 47.0% | 34.1% |
| Pepas | 33.0% | 20.4% |
| Mo Bamba | 34.0% | 21.3% |
| As It Was | 37.0% | 24.1% |
| Stay | 24.0% | 13.0% |

- Expiration: January 1, 2030

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market shows a clear upward trend, with the perceived probability rising from a low of 41.0% to a high of 53.0%. The most significant price action was a sharp 12.0 percentage point spike on April 15, which single-handedly moved the market from a pessimistic outlook to an optimistic one. The provided context does not contain any specific news or developments that would explain the catalyst for this sudden increase in probability. The price has since consolidated at this new, higher level, suggesting the market has accepted this re-evaluation for the time being.

The market is characterized by very low liquidity, with only 33 contracts traded in total. This suggests that the price movements, including the major spike, could be the result of a small number of trades or traders. Volume appears to have increased alongside the price, with recent trading days showing more activity than the market's inception. This indicates that conviction may be growing, but the low overall volume means the market's price could still be highly sensitive to new participants or information. The starting price of 41.0% has established itself as a clear support level, while the current price of 53.0% acts as the immediate resistance and all-time high.

Overall, the price action indicates a definitive shift in sentiment. Traders have moved from believing the event is unlikely (below 50%) to believing it is more likely than not. The sustained price level above 50% suggests a bullish sentiment among the current participants. However, the thin trading volume implies this sentiment is not widely held or tested, and the market could experience significant volatility if new information emerges or trading activity increases.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Despacito

#### 📈 April 25, 2026: 37.0pp spike

Price increased from 12.0% to 49.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 24, 2026: 47.0pp drop

Price decreased from 59.0% to 12.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Blinding Lights

#### 📈 April 15, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 41.0% to 53.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if "Despacito" is playable on at least one in-game radio station in Grand Theft Auto VI at launch; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome will be verified by Kotaku and Rockstar Games. The market opens on June 12, 2025, at 10:00 AM EDT, and closes early if the event occurs, or by January 1, 2030, at 10:00 AM EST if it doesn't. Trading is prohibited for those employed by the source agencies or holding material, non-public information.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| As It Was | 25% | 35% | 37% | $130.52 | $76.52 |
| Bad and Boujee | 38% | 47% | 47% | $223.1 | $115.1 |
| Blinding Lights | 43% | 54% | 53% | $1,565.85 | $681.21 |
| Despacito | 48% | 52% | 48% | $1,629.46 | $933.18 |
| God’s Plan | 35% | 47% | 35% | $665.34 | $381.34 |
| Look at Me! | 27% | 39% | 37% | $635 | $358 |
| Mask Off | 30% | 42% | 41% | $601.71 | $343.71 |
| Mo Bamba | 34% | 46% | 34% | $131 | $47 |
| Pepas | 33% | 45% | 33% | $196.02 | $59.02 |
| Rockstar | 36% | 46% | 36% | $237 | $95 |
| Shape of You | 21% | 26% | 26% | $1,364.81 | $1,083 |
| Sicko Mode | 38% | 49% | 38% | $368.97 | $216.97 |
| Stay | 24% | 36% | 24% | $120 | $40 |
| XO Tour Llif3 | 26% | 38% | 26% | $359.52 | $297.52 |

## What Percentage of GTA V Launch Songs Were Billboard Top 10 Hits?

Top 10 Hits Percentage | 10.26% ([[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/soundtrack-radio-stations/non-stop-pop-fm), [[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/radio-stations/radio-los-santos), [[^]](http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2013/09/17/grand-theft-auto-v-gtav-radio-station-soundtrack/), [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Only_Girl_(In_the_World))) |
Radio Los Santos Tracks | 19 tracks [[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/radio-stations/radio-los-santos), [[^]](http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2013/09/17/grand-theft-auto-v-gtav-radio-station-soundtrack/) |
Non-Stop-Pop FM Tracks | 20 songs [[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/soundtrack-radio-stations/non-stop-pop-fm), [[^]](http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2013/09/17/grand-theft-auto-v-gtav-radio-station-soundtrack/) |

**Grand Theft Auto V launched with a small percentage of mega-hits**

Grand Theft Auto V launched with a small percentage of mega-hits.
At its 2013 launch, Grand Theft Auto V's main contemporary pop and hip-hop stations, Radio Los Santos and Non-Stop-Pop FM, collectively featured 39 songs. Of these, **10.26%** were Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits released between 2010 and 2013. This percentage represents four songs across both stations that met the specified criteria.

Radio Los Santos included just one top ten hit from the period.
Radio Los Santos contributed 19 tracks to the game's launch soundtrack [[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/radio-stations/radio-los-santos), [[^]](http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2013/09/17/grand-theft-auto-v-gtav-radio-station-soundtrack/). Among these, only one song achieved Billboard Hot 100 top 10 status from the 2010-2013 period: "Fuckin' Problems" by A$AP Rocky featuring 2 Chainz, Drake, and Kendrick Lamar, which peaked at number 8. Other tracks like Kelly Rowland's "Motivation," which peaked at number 17, did not reach the top 10.

Non-Stop-Pop FM featured three qualifying top ten Billboard hits.
Non-Stop-Pop FM's 2013 launch tracklist included 20 songs [[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/soundtrack-radio-stations/non-stop-pop-fm), [[^]](http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2013/09/17/grand-theft-auto-v-gtav-radio-station-soundtrack/). This station featured three Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits from 2010 to 2013: Rihanna's "Only Girl (In the World)," which peaked at number 3 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Only_Girl_(In_the_World)); Lady Gaga's "Applause" (peaked at number 4); and Swedish House Mafia's "Don't You Worry Child" (peaked at number 6). Conversely, songs such as Britney Spears' "Work Bitch," which peaked at number 12, did not make it into the top 10.

## How Have GTA Online Radio Stations' Music Tastes Evolved?

Cayo Perico Heist Stations | Still Slipping Los Santos, Kult FM, The Music Locker Radio (December 2020) [[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/news/grand-theft-auto-v/gta-online-new-radio-stations-and-existing-radio-stations-addittion-coming-with-the-cayo-perico-heist-update) |
MOTOMAMI Los Santos Genres | Reggaeton, experimental pop, hyperpop, electronic music, Latin trap [[^]](https://gta.wiki/w/MOTOMAMI_Los_Santos/Tracklist) |
Still Slipping Los Santos Genres | UK electronic, house, techno, garage, jungle, electro, UK drill [[^]](http://gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/radio-stations/still-slipping-los-santos) |

**GTA Online's radio curation has diversified significantly since December 2020**

GTA Online's radio curation has diversified significantly since December 2020. The game has embraced diverse electronic subgenres, contemporary global pop with strong Latin influences, and a focus on curated classic underground and alternative music. With The Cayo Perico Heist update in December 2020, three new stations were introduced: Still Slipping Los Santos, Kult FM, and The Music Locker Radio [[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/news/grand-theft-auto-v/gta-online-new-radio-stations-and-existing-radio-stations-addittion-coming-with-the-cayo-perico-heist-update). This evolution blends current tracks with influential older recordings selected for their cultural impact rather than mainstream appeal.

Each new station offers a distinct genre focus and curatorial style. Still Slipping Los Santos, hosted by Joy Orbison, primarily features UK electronic music, encompassing house, techno, garage, jungle, electro, and UK drill [[^]](http://gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/radio-stations/still-slipping-los-santos). MOTOMAMI Los Santos, hosted by ROSALÍA, showcases a blend of reggaeton, experimental pop, hyperpop, electronic music, and Latin trap [[^]](https://gta.wiki/w/MOTOMAMI_Los_Santos/Tracklist). Kult FM, curated by Julian Casablancas, emphasizes post-punk, no-wave, psych-rock, synth-punk, and industrial music, including artists like A.R. Kane, The Velvet Underground, and Iggy Pop [[^]](https://gta.wiki/w/Kult_FM/Tracklist). The Music Locker Radio focuses on club-oriented electronic music, specifically house, techno, and disco, highlighting residencies from DJs such as Moodymann [[^]](https://www.gtabase.com/grand-theft-auto-v/radio-stations/the-music-locker).

This selection reflects specific priorities of the current music supervision team. Still Slipping Los Santos and MOTOMAMI Los Santos demonstrate a strong interest in current electronic sounds and global pop trends. Kult FM, conversely, highlights a curated appreciation for historically significant artists from the 1970s, 80s, and 90s alternative and underground scenes. This approach marks a departure from the broader, often more mainstream-accessible focus of Grand Theft Auto V's original soundtrack, favoring deeper explorations into specific electronic subcultures, contemporary international sounds, and a thoughtfully chosen collection of foundational, niche alternative music.

## Can Preferential Music Licensing Deals Be Identified for Game Soundtracks?

New Songs in GTA Online DLC | 77 [[^]](https://rockstarintel.com/gta-online-the-contract-update-all-music-revealed/) |
RDR2 Music Composition | Original score, licensed songs, vocal tracks [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_of_Red_Dead_Redemption_2) |
Publishing Group Information | Not specified for individual licensed tracks [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_of_Red_Dead_Redemption_2) |

**Precise music publishing breakdowns for game soundtracks are not available**

Precise music publishing breakdowns for game soundtracks are not available. The research does not provide a precise breakdown of licensed tracks by major music publishing groups such as UMG, Sony, or Warner Chappell for either Red Dead Redemption 2 or the 'The Contract' DLC for GTA Online. This absence of specific publishing details for individual tracks prevents the identification of any potential preferential or large-scale licensing deals that might favor artists from a particular catalog.

Red Dead Redemption 2 features an original score and licensed tracks. The game's music consists of an original score combined with various licensed songs and vocal tracks [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_of_Red_Dead_Redemption_2). Daniel Lanois, whose work is associated with Concord Music Publishing, was a significant contributor, producing and co-writing several featured vocal tracks [[^]](https://concord.com/news/red-dead-redemption-2-soundtrack-produced-and-co-written-by-concord-music-publishings-daniel-lanois-is-available-now/). Noteworthy licensed vocal tracks include "Unshaken" by D'Angelo and "Cruel World" by Willie Nelson, along with other licensed songs like "The House That Built Me" by Miranda Lambert [[^]](https://www.ireddead.com/reddeadredemption2/soundtrack/). However, the specific publishing groups for these artists and their respective tracks are not detailed in the provided sources.

GTA Online's 'The Contract' DLC added 77 diverse new songs. This substantial update introduced 77 new songs across several radio stations [[^]](https://rockstarintel.com/gta-online-the-contract-update-all-music-revealed/). These tracks feature a diverse array of artists, including Dr. Dre, Anderson.Paak, and Freddie Gibbs [[^]](https://rockstarintel.com/gta-online-the-contract-update-all-music-revealed/). While comprehensive lists of these artists and song titles are accessible [[^]](https://rockstarintel.com/gta-online-the-contract-update-all-music-revealed/), the research materials do not specify the corresponding music publishing groups for each of these licensed tracks. Without this crucial information, analyzing the distribution of licensing deals among major publishing groups or determining preferential treatment is not feasible.

## How Does Cinematic Appeal Influence Grand Theft Auto VI Song Choices?

Rockstar's Song Preference | Tracks with proven "cinematic" appeal for trailers and in-game moments [[^]](https://www.nomansplanet.co.uk/what-song-is-playing-in-the-new-gta-6-trailer/) |
Example Cinematic Track | Travis Scott's "The Plan" (from Christopher Nolan's Tenet) [[^]](https://rollingstone.com/music/music-news/travis-scott-the-plan-song-tenet-soundtrack-1047792) |
Broader Selection Trend | "Epic trailer songs" and tracks from major film/TV campaigns (2020-2024) [[^]](https://akos.ma/blog/epic-trailer-songs/) |

**Rockstar Games favors cinematically prominent songs for its high-budget productions**

Rockstar Games favors cinematically prominent songs for its high-budget productions. The company consistently selects tracks with proven cinematic appeal for its high-budget trailers and in-game sequences, as demonstrated by the inclusion of Tom Petty's "Love Is a Long Road" in the Grand Theft Auto VI trailer [[^]](https://www.nomansplanet.co.uk/what-song-is-playing-in-the-new-gta-6-trailer/). While specific GTA 6 radio station outcome lists are not detailed in available prediction **market** research, an analysis of tracks prominently featured in major film and TV campaigns between 2020 and 2024 offers insight into the type of songs with strong cinematic resonance that Rockstar might consider [[^]](https://www.predictionswap.ai/kalshi/KXGTA6SONGS-30). Rockstar's selections often go beyond simple popularity, opting for songs that have gained significant cultural cachet through impactful placement in other media, underscoring their suitability for Grand Theft Auto VI [[^]](https://akos.ma/blog/epic-trailer-songs/).

Travis Scott's "The Plan" exemplifies a track with strong cinematic appeal. This song serves as a prime example, having been specifically created for and featured in Christopher Nolan's film *Tenet* in 2020 [[^]](https://rollingstone.com/music/music-news/travis-scott-the-plan-song-tenet-soundtrack-1047792). This bespoke composition for a cinematic experience and its direct association with a high-profile film's marketing campaign illustrates the kind of track Rockstar Games might select for its in-game radio stations. Given its demonstrated ability to evoke a specific mood and achieve cultural recognition, any songs on a potential GTA 6 radio list with a similar history of significant feature in major film or TV trailers and marketing campaigns from 2020 to 2024 would align well with Rockstar's established preference for tracks with cinematic gravitas.

## How Are Grand Theft Auto Soundtrack Details Typically Revealed?

Leak Lead Time | Approximately one month before launch [[^]](https://musicfeeds.com.au/news/grand-theft-auto-v-soundtrack-details-leak-online/) |
Primary Leak Source | Game pre-loads/files [[^]](https://www.ign.com/articles/2013/08/24/grand-theft-auto-v-soundtrack-leaks-via-ps3-pre-load) |
Official Tracklist Release | Post-launch [[^]](https://consequence.net/2013/10/grand-theft-auto-v-the-official-final-tracklist-is-here/) |

**Grand Theft Auto soundtrack details often emerge from pre-launch leaks**

Grand Theft Auto soundtrack details often emerge from pre-launch leaks. Historically, confirmed Grand Theft Auto (GTA) soundtrack information has primarily surfaced through pre-launch leaks from game files and official announcements following the game's release. Significant leaks typically occur approximately one month before a game's launch, often stemming from users accessing game pre-loads to extract tracklists. Music industry databases, such as ASCAP or BMI, along with traditional "insider leaks" distinct from extracted game data, are not explicitly noted as initial sources for these public revelations. For Grand Theft Auto V, a substantial portion of the soundtrack details leaked online in August 2013, roughly one month prior to its September 17, 2013 launch [[^]](https://musicfeeds.com.au/news/grand-theft-auto-v-soundtrack-details-leak-online/). These leaks predominantly originated from PlayStation 3 pre-loads, enabling users to access and reveal tracklists, which were then reported by gaming news outlets such as IGN and GodisaGeek [[^]](https://www.godisageek.com/2013/08/grand-theft-auto-soundtrack-info-leaked/). The complete, official tracklist for Grand Theft Auto V was subsequently released in October 2013, after the game had already been launched [[^]](https://consequence.net/2013/10/grand-theft-auto-v-the-official-final-tracklist-is-here/).

Official soundtrack information typically follows unofficial leaks or game launch. Official announcements from Rockstar Games regarding comprehensive in-game tracklists generally do not occur in the final months leading up to a game's release. Instead, these disclosures often follow unofficial leaks or are released post-launch, frequently alongside physical media such as soundtrack box sets or compilation albums. For instance, Rockstar Games and Interscope Records provided details for Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas soundtrack box sets [[^]](https://www.gamesindustry.biz/rockstar-games-and-interscope-records-announce-box-set-soundtrack-details-for-grand-theft-auto-san-andreas). While there were earlier reports of partial tracklist revelations for Grand Theft Auto IV, the specific source and exact lead time for these details are less definitively documented compared to the pre-load leaks seen for Grand Theft Auto V [[^]](https://www.psu.com/news/gta-iv-partial-track-list-revealed/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 01, 2030
- **Closes:** January 01, 2030

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.