# #2 Song on Spotify in 2026?

In 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Entertainment

Tags: Music

HTML: /markets/entertainment/music/2-song-on-spotify-in-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect End of Beginning to be the #2 song on Spotify in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Bruno Mars's 2026 global stadium tour provides significant new music engagement.** - Ed Sheeran's "Loop Tour 2026" also supports new music streaming and promotion.
- "End of Beginning" by Djo lacks confirmed major media licensing for 2025/2026.
- Drake's "ICEMAN" buzz lacks comparative TikTok/Reels adoption velocity data.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **15.5%** **probability** vs 10c **market** price (10x payout multiple), driven by Bruno Mars' 2026 global tour.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BIRDS OF A FEATHER | 7.0% | 11.1% | Model higher by 4.1pp |
| Golden | 10.0% | 15.5% | Model higher by 5.5pp |
| End of Beginning | 11.0% | 16.9% | Model higher by 5.9pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| BIRDS OF A FEATHER | 7.0% | 11.1% |
| Golden | 10.0% | 15.5% |
| End of Beginning | 11.0% | 16.9% |
| DtMF | 7.0% | 11.1% |
| Manchild | 5.0% | 8.1% |
| Ordinary | 7.0% | 11.1% |
| Die With A Smile | 4.0% | 6.5% |
| Don’t Say You Love Me | 4.0% | 6.5% |
| APT. | 2.0% | 3.3% |
| Your Idol | 1.0% | 1.7% |
| back to friends | 1.0% | 1.7% |
| Soda Pop | 4.0% | 6.5% |
| Man I Need | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SWIM | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Babydoll | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Raindance (feat. Tems) | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stateside + Zara Larsson | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| So Easy (To Fall in Love) | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: December 31, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if "Babydoll" is the #2 most streamed song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart, as released in 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opens on April 7, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT, and closes either after the outcome occurs or by December 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST. Outcomes are verified from Spotify's newsroom, and the market can close and expire early if the event occurs.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| APT. | 0% | 4% | 2% | $137 | $131 |
| Babydoll | 30% | 45% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| back to friends | 1% | 3% | 1% | $102 | $60 |
| BIRDS OF A FEATHER | 0% | 5% | 7% | $1,211 | $929 |
| Die With A Smile | 0% | 3% | 4% | $221 | $215 |
| Don’t Say You Love Me | 0% | 4% | 4% | $192 | $186 |
| DtMF | 1% | 6% | 7% | $513.41 | $493.41 |
| End of Beginning | 11% | 20% | 11% | $1,164 | $328 |
| Golden | 2% | 6% | 10% | $1,208 | $714 |
| Manchild | 0% | 3% | 5% | $407 | $401 |
| Man I Need | 1% | 7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ordinary | 0% | 3% | 7% | $309 | $303 |
| Raindance (feat. Tems) | 1% | 6% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Soda Pop | 0% | 4% | 4% | $99 | $93 |
| So Easy (To Fall in Love) | 1% | 6% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Stateside + Zara Larsson | 2% | 15% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| SWIM | 10% | 25% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Your Idol | 0% | 4% | 1% | $113 | $97 |

## What Are Major Label Promotional Budgets for Spotify Playlists in 2025-2026?

Bad Bunny 2025 Global Spotify Streams | Over 19.8 billion streams [[^]](https://haporium.com/p/bad-bunny-vs-taylor-swift-the-unseen-engine-of-a-streaming-war) |
Major Label Competition | Engaged in an 'arms race' for streaming platform attention [[^]](https://trapital.co/2021/06/21/inside-universal-sony-and-warners-arms-race-for-your-attention/) |
Specific 2025-2026 Song Budgets | Not publicly disclosed for individual songs or playlist placements [[^]](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZF1DXcBWIGoYBM5M?nd=1&dlsi=c7a92b323f774332) |

**Specific data on individual song promotional budgets for 2025-2026 is unavailable**

Specific data on individual song promotional budgets for 2025-2026 is unavailable. The research does not provide specific information on individual song promotional budgets from major record labels, such as Universal, Sony, or Warner, for the 2025-2026 period [[^]](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZF1DXcBWIGoYBM5M?nd=1&dlsi=c7a92b323f774332). This includes data for securing top-tier placement on Spotify's editorial playlists, like 'Today's Top Hits' [[^]](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZF1DXcBWIGoYBM5M?nd=1&dlsi=c7a92b323f774332). Precise dollar figures for song-specific promotional budgets, especially for future periods and particular playlist placements, are proprietary and generally not disclosed in public sources [[^]](https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZF1DXcBWIGoYBM5M?nd=1&dlsi=c7a92b323f774332).

Major labels significantly invest in top artists to influence streaming platforms. While specific song budgets are not publicly disclosed, major record labels like Universal, Sony, and Warner are engaged in an "arms race" to capture audience attention and shape the musical agenda on streaming platforms [[^]](https://www.playmysong.com/understanding-spotifys-partnerships-major-labels-streamings-gatekeepers-set-musical-agenda.html). These labels make substantial investments in their leading artists, underscoring the intense "streaming war" where securing prominent playlist placements for key artists is a priority [[^]](https://haporium.com/p/bad-bunny-vs-taylor-swift-the-unseen-engine-of-a-streaming-war).

High-performing artists receive substantial, implicit promotional backing from labels. Artists who consistently achieve high streaming numbers are implicitly supported by considerable promotional efforts to maintain their visibility and secure leading positions on platforms such as Spotify [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/music/articles/2025-top-earning-artists-spotify-143103697.html). For instance, Bad Bunny was Spotify's most-streamed artist globally in 2025 with over 19.8 billion streams, and Taylor Swift also represents an artist backed by extensive label promotion [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/music/articles/2025-top-earning-artists-spotify-143103697.html). These efforts are designed to ensure their presence on influential platforms.

## Which Song Shows Highest TikTok/Reels Adoption Velocity?

Primary Song Snippet Focus | Drake's "ICEMAN" (snippet) [[^]](https://hotnewhiphop.com/975826-drake-akademiks-previews-new-iceman-snippet-hip-hop-news) |
Snippet Description | "Bold bars" [[^]](https://hotnewhiphop.com/975826-drake-akademiks-previews-new-iceman-snippet-hip-hop-news) and "impressive" [[^]](https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/962384-drake-previews-new-song-iceman-release-hip-hop-news) |
Comparative Adoption Data | Not available for multiple songs' adoption velocity [[^]](https://hotnewhiphop.com/975826-drake-akademiks-previews-new-iceman-snippet-hip-hop-news) |

**Comparative data is unavailable for snippet adoption on TikTok and Instagram Reels**

Comparative data is unavailable for snippet adoption on TikTok and Instagram Reels. The provided research does not contain the specific information required to determine which pre-release song snippet is currently demonstrating the highest rate of adoption and user-generated content creation on TikTok and Instagram Reels, as measured by the velocity of new videos using the sound. The available research focused primarily on Drake's "ICEMAN" snippet and its associated rollout, rather than offering comparative metrics across multiple songs or specific statistics on video velocity.

Drake's "ICEMAN" snippet generated considerable pre-release attention. Details regarding the "ICEMAN" snippet indicate it was previewed by Akademiks [[^]](https://hotnewhiphop.com/975826-drake-akademiks-previews-new-iceman-snippet-hip-hop-news), [[^]](https://mybigplunge.com/drake-ignites-buzz-with-new-iceman-snippet-previewed-by-akademiks/) and described as featuring "bold bars" [[^]](https://hotnewhiphop.com/975826-drake-akademiks-previews-new-iceman-snippet-hip-hop-news) and being "impressive" [[^]](https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/962384-drake-previews-new-song-iceman-release-hip-hop-news). Its rollout, which prominently featured a Toronto ice structure [[^]](https://www.mneemo.com/post/drake-iceman-rollout-toronto-ice-structure), garnered significant interest and was widely discussed as an event or meme [[^]](https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/events/drakes-iceman-structure), with Drake noted for "igniting buzz" [[^]](https://mybigplunge.com/drake-ignites-buzz-with-new-iceman-snippet-previewed-by-akademiks/) surrounding the release. However, the sources did not provide specific metrics or statistics on the velocity of new videos utilizing the "ICEMAN" sound, nor any other song's sound, on TikTok or Instagram Reels.

## Is 'End of Beginning' Licensed for 2025/2026 Media Releases?

Song in Question | End of Beginning [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Beginning) |
Licensing Confirmation | No explicit information found [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Beginning) |
Target Release Window | Late 2025 or early 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Beginning) |

**No licensing confirmed for 'End of Beginning' in upcoming major productions**

No licensing confirmed for 'End of Beginning' in upcoming major productions. Research sought to confirm if the song 'End of Beginning' [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Beginning) has been licensed for a significant placement, such as a main theme or critical scene, in a major global film, streaming series, or video game franchise. The specified release schedule for these productions was late 2025 or early 2026. A comprehensive review of available sources revealed no explicit information confirming such a licensing agreement for the song.

Research involved a comprehensive review of diverse public information sources. To investigate, various sources were examined, including the Wikipedia page for 'End of Beginning' [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Beginning). Additional data points involved several prediction **market** events related to the song's Spotify chart performance for 2025 and 2026 [[^]](https://worldcoin.polymarket.com/event/1-song-on-us-spotify-this-week-april-24). Information regarding potential soundtracks for upcoming media was also considered, such as 'The Best Video Game Soundtracks Of 2026 (So Far)' [[^]](https://www.gamespot.com/articles/the-best-video-game-soundtracks-of-2026/1100-6538590/), 'The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (soundtrack)' [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_Mario_Galaxy_Movie_(soundtrack)), and 'Superman (2025 soundtrack)' [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superman_(2025_soundtrack)).

Sources reviewed did not provide specific licensing details. Despite examining these materials, no explicit confirmation was found for a licensing agreement concerning 'End of Beginning' [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Beginning) in any major global film, streaming series, or video game franchise scheduled for release in late 2025 or early 2026. While some sources mentioned projects within the relevant timeframe, they lacked specific details regarding the inclusion or licensing of the song [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Beginning). The prediction **market** sources [[^]](https://worldcoin.polymarket.com/event/1-song-on-us-spotify-this-week-april-24) primarily focused on chart performance and did not contain relevant licensing information.

## Which Major Artists Have Confirmed Global Tours for 2026?

Bruno Mars Tour | "The Romantic Tour" Global Stadium Tour in 2026 [[^]](https://www.sofistadium.com/news/detail/bruno-mars-announces-the-romantic-tour-first-global-headline-tour-in-nearly-a-decade-and-first-global-stadium-outing) |
Ed Sheeran Tour | "Loop Tour 2026" confirmed [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loop_Tour) |
Guns N' Roses Tour | "2026 World Tour" announced [[^]](https://newsroom.livenation.com/news/guns-n-roses-announce-2026-world-tour/) |

**Bruno Mars confirmed a significant global stadium tour for 2026**

Bruno Mars confirmed a significant global stadium tour for 2026. Titled "The Romantic Tour," this event marks his first global headline tour in nearly a decade and his inaugural global stadium outing [[^]](https://www.sofistadium.com/news/detail/bruno-mars-announces-the-romantic-tour-first-global-headline-tour-in-nearly-a-decade-and-first-global-stadium-outing). Explicitly announced as a "2026 World Stadium Tour" [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/music/music-news/bruno-mars-2026-world-tour-stadiums-opening-acts-dates-1236151128/), this tour provides a powerful, sustained catalyst for streaming numbers during the critical charting period. The tour is scheduled for 2026 [[^]](https://www.sofistadium.com/news/detail/bruno-mars-announces-the-romantic-tour-first-global-headline-tour-in-nearly-a-decade-and-first-global-stadium-outing).

Several other artists have confirmed global tours for the 2026 period. Ed Sheeran has announced his "Loop Tour 2026" [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loop_Tour), and Guns N’ Roses have also revealed a "2026 World Tour" [[^]](https://newsroom.livenation.com/news/guns-n-roses-announce-2026-world-tour/). These confirmed global arena or stadium tours, running between October 2025 and June 2026, offer significant opportunities for sustained engagement and potential boosts to streaming numbers during critical charting periods.

## What Are the Musical Characteristics of Recent Global Hit Songs?

Top Global Song 2024 (Tempo, Key) | Espresso by Sabrina Carpenter, 108 BPM, F minor [[^]](https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/) |
Top Global Song 2025 (Tempo, Key) | Die With A Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, 140 BPM, C minor [[^]](https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/) |
Billie Eilish Song (Tempo, Key) | Birds of a Feather, 85 BPM, C# minor [[^]](https://songdata.io/track/6dOtVTDdiauQNBQEDOtlAB/BIRDS-OF-A-FEATHER-by-Billie-Eilish) |

**Top global songs exhibit varied tempos and frequent minor keys**

Top global songs exhibit varied tempos and frequent minor keys. Analysis of top Spotify songs from 2024 and 2025 reveals successful variations in tempo and a prevalence of minor keys among global hits. In 2024, Sabrina Carpenter's "Espresso" was the leading global song, featuring a moderate tempo of 108 BPM and an F minor key [[^]](https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). For 2025, the top global track was "Die With A Smile" by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, which has a faster tempo of 140 BPM and is in C minor [[^]](https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). Specific data regarding BPM, key, or hook placement for the top global songs of 2023 is not available, preventing a comprehensive historical characteristic analysis for that year [[^]](https://peachpopfive.com/the-top-global-songs-of-2023/).

"Espresso" and "Die With A Smile" exemplify successful sonic profiles. Both tracks were leading global songs in their respective years, directly aligning with successful sonic profiles for top-charting music [[^]](https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). "Espresso" demonstrates a highly successful mid-tempo pop sound with its 108 BPM and F minor key [[^]](https://songdata.io/track/2qSkIjg1o9h3YT9RAgYN75/Espresso-by-Sabrina-Carpenter). "Die With A Smile" represents an effective uptempo pop-soul approach, characterized by its 140 BPM and C minor key [[^]](https://songdata.io/track/2plbrEY59IikOBgBGLjaoe/Die-With-A-Smile-by-Lady-Gaga-Bruno-Mars). In contrast, Billie Eilish's "Birds of a Feather" features a C# minor key, similar to many hit songs, but its significantly slower tempo of 85 BPM [[^]](https://songdata.io/track/6dOtVTDdiauQNBQEDOtlAB/BIRDS-OF-A-FEATHER-by-Billie-Eilish) contrasts with the documented top global songs of 2024 and 2025.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** January 07, 2027
- **Closes:** December 31, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.