# Where will Folded chart on the Apr 18, 2026 Billboard Hot 100? On Apr 18, 2026 Updated: April 12, 2026 Category: Entertainment Tags: Music charts Music HTML: /markets/entertainment/music-charts/where-will-folded-chart-on-the-apr-18-2026-billboard-hot-100/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing: Folded charting in the Top 10 at **72.3%** **model** vs **61.0%** **market**, suggesting Kehlani's established track record offers a stronger chance for a Top 10 placement despite other factors. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - 'Folded' peak performance occurred well in advance of April 2026.** - No major media features or significant Q1 2026 UGC identified for 'Folded'. - Snoop Dogg and BTS release new albums competing on the April 18 chart. - Kehlani's established artist status suggests a baseline of listenership. - 'Folded' achieved significant early Spotify editorial playlist support. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **2.0%** for Top 10 charting, a +2.0 ppt gap from 0c **market**, reflects no catalysts or competition. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 | 61.0% | 72.3% | Initial radio peaks were not Top 10, and success peaked well before April 2026 without new catalysts. | | 9 | 11.0% | 12.7% | Initial radio peaks were not Top 10, and success peaked well before April 2026 without new catalysts. | | 1 | 0.0% | 2.0% | Initial radio peaks were not Top 10, and success peaked well before April 2026 without new catalysts. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | 10 | 61.0% | 72.3% | | 9 | 11.0% | 12.7% | | 1 | 0.0% | 2.0% | | 2 | 0.0% | 2.0% | | 3 | 0.0% | 2.0% | | 4 | 0.0% | 2.0% | | 5 | 0.0% | 2.0% | | 6 | 0.0% | 2.0% | | 7 | 0.0% | 2.0% | | 8 | 0.0% | 2.0% | - Expiration: April 13, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics The price action for this market has been entirely static, exhibiting a flat, sideways trend since its inception. The probability for a "YES" outcome has consistently been priced at 0.0% across all 13 data points. There have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. The market opened at 0.0% and has not deviated, establishing this price as the only key level observed. Given the complete lack of price changes, there are no market reactions to correlate with any external events. The total trading volume for this market is zero contracts. This absence of trading activity indicates a complete lack of market participation and conviction from traders. The 0.0% price level is the definitive floor or support, though no resistance level has ever been tested. Overall, the chart suggests market sentiment is unanimously positioned against a "YES" outcome, with the combination of a 0.0% price and zero volume indicating a strong consensus that "Folded" is extremely unlikely to chart on the Billboard Hot 100 on the specified date. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if the song "Folded" is ranked #10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Apr 18, 2026, with the outcome verified from Billboard's official website; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on Apr 3, 2026, at 3:05 pm EDT. It will close and expire early if the relevant Billboard chart is released on their official website; otherwise, it closes by Apr 12, 2026, at 11:59 pm EDT. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | 10 | 5% | 93% | 61% | $2,889.92 | $1,777.92 | | 2 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | 3 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | 4 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | 5 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | 6 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | 7 | 0% | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | 8 | 0% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | 9 | 2% | 96% | 11% | $85.54 | $85.54 | ## Has Kehlani's 'Folded' Met Spotify and Radio Airplay Goals? Spotify Editorial Playlists | Included in 'Today's Top Hits', 'RapCaviar', and '¡Viva Latino!' [[^]](https://kworb.net/spotify/track/0bxPRWprUVpQK0UFcddkrA.html) | US Mainstream Top 40 Peak | Number 18 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folded_(song)) | US Top 40/CHR Stations | Confirmed airplay on more than 20 stations [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folded_(song)) | **Kehlani's 'Folded' secured significant Spotify editorial playlist placements early** Kehlani's 'Folded' secured significant Spotify editorial playlist placements early. The song was officially added to multiple top Spotify global editorial playlists, notably including 'Today's Top Hits', 'RapCaviar', and '¡Viva Latino!' [[^]](https://kworb.net/spotify/track/0bxPRWprUVpQK0UFcddkrA.html). This widespread inclusion indicates strong editorial support and broad exposure on major streaming platforms, fulfilling the specified conditions well in advance of the April 1, 2026, deadline. 'Folded' achieved extensive U.S. Top 40/CHR radio airplay. The track reached number 18 on the US Mainstream Top 40 (Pop Airplay) chart, confirming its broadcast on more than 20 U.S. Top 40/CHR stations [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folded_(song)). Additionally, the song peaked at number 7 on the US Rhythmic chart and number 8 on the US Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs chart, with Billboard highlighting its success [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folded_(song)). These achievements confirm widespread radio support significantly before the set deadline. ## What Is 'Folded' UGC Velocity on TikTok and Instagram Reels? Folded' UGC Daily Velocity Q1 2026 | Not available for TikTok or Instagram Reels (Research) [[^]](https://soundcamps.com/blog/tiktok-statistics/) | Primary Research Focus | Billboard Hot 100 predictions for 'Folded' [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EsRLIfgSR0) | General TikTok Music Data | General marketing statistics in 2026 available [[^]](https://soundcamps.com/blog/tiktok-statistics/) | **Specific 'Folded' UGC creation velocity data for Q1 2026 is unavailable** Specific 'Folded' UGC creation velocity data for Q1 2026 is unavailable. The average daily creation velocity of new User-Generated Content (UGC) on TikTok and Instagram Reels for the 'Folded' audio during Q1 2026 could not be determined from the research. Consequently, a direct comparison of this rate to the UGC velocity of other electronic songs that previously entered the Billboard Hot 100 top 10 also could not be provided. Research sources primarily focused on predictions and general song information. The available materials mainly centered on future Billboard Hot 100 chart predictions for 'Folded' [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EsRLIfgSR0), general details about the song itself [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folded_(song)), and Kehlani's social media presence [[^]](https://www.tiktok.com/@kehlani/video/7518234839271722253). While one source offered general TikTok statistics relevant to music marketing in 2026 [[^]](https://soundcamps.com/blog/tiktok-statistics/) and another highlighted the success of Clean Bandit & Zara Larsson's 'Symphony' on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 [[^]](https://billboard.com/music/chart-beat/clean-bandit-zara-larsson-symphony-tops-tiktok-billboard-top-50-third-week-1235772378), none of these sources provided the granular daily UGC creation velocity metrics specifically required for 'Folded' or for a comparative analysis with other electronic songs. Consequently, precise comparative analysis of 'Folded' UGC velocity is not possible. The absence of specific daily UGC creation velocity figures means that the exact rates for 'Folded' on TikTok and Instagram Reels in Q1 2026, and a comparative analysis against similar electronic tracks, cannot be established based on the research provided. ## Has Knock2 Released Music with #1 Billboard Artist Recently? Knock2 Debut LP Release Date | January 26, 2025 [[^]](https://www.thenocturnaltimes.com/trailblazing-producer-knock2-unveils-highly-anticipated-debut-lp-nolimit/) | RL Grime Collaboration Mention Date | November 7, 2024 [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/music/music-news/best-dance-songs-rebecca-black-rl-grime-1235843311/) | New Tracks/Albums with #1 Artists (April 18, 2025 - April 18, 2026) | No evidence found [[^]](https://www.beatport.com/artist/knock2/768818/releases) | **There is no evidence of Knock2 releasing or being officially featured on a new track or album with a collaborator who has previously achieved a #1 single on the Billboard Hot 100 within the 12 months preceding April 18, 2026** There is no evidence of Knock2 releasing or being officially featured on a new track or album with a collaborator who has previously achieved a #1 single on the Billboard Hot 100 within the 12 months preceding April 18, 2026. This specified period covers releases from April 18, 2025, to April 18, 2026. Key Knock2 releases and collaborations predate the relevant timeframe. Knock2's debut LP 'nolimit' was released on January 26, 2025 [[^]](https://www.thenocturnaltimes.com/trailblazing-producer-knock2-unveils-highly-anticipated-debut-lp-nolimit/). Additionally, a collaboration between Knock2 and RL Grime was highlighted in a Billboard article published on November 7, 2024 [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/music/music-news/best-dance-songs-rebecca-black-rl-grime-1235843311/). Both of these events occurred before the beginning of the defined 12-month period, and no other relevant releases or featured collaborations by Knock2 within the designated timeframe are indicated by the provided sources. ## Has Kehlani's Song 'Folded' Been Featured in Major Media (2025-2026)? Song 'Folded' Confirmation | Confirmed existence via official music video [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFMYx1TibeQ) | Film 'Folded in Grey' (2025) | Listed on The Movie Database, no song feature details provided [[^]](https://tmdb.org/movie/983758-folded-in-grey) | Feature in Major Media (Jan 2025 - Apr 2026) | No explicit features in major global media releases identified (Comprehensive web research findings) [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFMYx1TibeQ) | **The song 'Folded' by Kehlani has not been featured in major media** The song 'Folded' by Kehlani has not been featured in major media. As of the available research, the song has not been explicitly identified in a key scene or official trailer for a major global media release between January 1, 2025, and April 1, 2026. This includes films with over **$200** million worldwide box office, streaming series exceeding 1 billion minutes viewed in their first week per Nielsen, or video games selling more than 10 million units. The existence of the song 'Folded' by Kehlani is confirmed by its official music video [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFMYx1TibeQ). No evidence found for 'Folded' in specific media releases. While a film titled 'Folded in Grey (2025)' is listed in The Movie Database (TMDB) with a release year within the specified timeframe [[^]](https://tmdb.org/movie/983758-folded-in-grey), this entry solely refers to the movie's title and provides no details about the song 'Folded' being included in its soundtrack, trailer, or any promotional materials. Other reviewed sources also did not indicate any feature of the song. These sources encompassed trailers for 'Mother Mary' [[^]](https://thefilmstage.com/mother-mary-trailer-david-lowery-returns-with-pop-melodrama-starring-anne-hathaway-and-michaela-coel/), the Netflix series 'Building the Band' [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGKr14AuJ1c), soundtrack guides for 'Adolescence' [[^]](https://www.soapcentral.com/shows/adolescence-soundtrack-guide-a-complete-list-music-netflix-series) and 'You' Season 5 [[^]](https://www.thewrap.com/you-season-5-soundtrack-all-the-songs-list/), and discussions about video game music in 2025 [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/comments/1pt2z2i/this_is_the_best_video_game_music_of_2025_as/). None of these investigations revealed the inclusion of 'Folded' in a key scene or official trailer that meets the criteria for major global media releases during the January 1, 2025, to April 1, 2026, period. ## Which superstar artists are releasing albums in April 2026? Superstar Artist 1 | Snoop Dogg (Confirmed April 10, 2026 release) [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/09/new-music-friday-release-radar-for-april-10-2026-top-albums-song-releases/) | Superstar Artist 2 | BTS (Confirmed April 10, 2026 release) [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/09/new-music-friday-release-radar-for-april-10-2026-top-albums-song-releases/) | Superstar Artist Definition | At least two #1 albums on the Billboard 200 chart [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/09/new-music-friday-release-radar-for-april-10-2026-top-albums-song-releases/) | **Two superstar artists will release albums during April 10-16, 2026** Two superstar artists will release albums during April 10-16, 2026. For the chart tracking week of April 10-16, 2026, Snoop Dogg and BTS are confirmed to release albums [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/09/new-music-friday-release-radar-for-april-10-2026-top-albums-song-releases/). A superstar artist is defined as an artist with at least two #1 albums on the Billboard 200 chart. While Melanie Martinez also has an album release scheduled for April 10, 2026, her discography does not meet the superstar criteria; her highest-charting albums, "Portals" (2023), "K-12" (2019), and "Cry Baby" (2015), reached #2, #3, and #6 respectively, but none achieved the #1 position [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melanie_Martinez_discography). Therefore, Snoop Dogg and BTS are the confirmed superstar artists releasing albums during this period. Snoop Dogg's discography includes multiple chart-topping Billboard 200 albums. He is scheduled to release an album on April 10, 2026 [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/09/new-music-friday-release-radar-for-april-10-2026-top-albums-song-releases/). He qualifies as a superstar artist due to his past success on the Billboard 200, which includes #1 albums such as "Doggystyle" (1993) and "Tha Doggfather" (1996) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snoop_Dogg_albums_discography). Global sensation BTS consistently achieves multiple chart-topping albums. The group also has a confirmed album release for April 10, 2026 [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/09/new-music-friday-release-radar-for-april-10-2026-top-albums-song-releases/). BTS has achieved numerous #1 albums on the Billboard 200, including "Love Yourself: Tear", "Love Yourself: Answer", "Map of the Soul: Persona", "Map of the Soul: 7", "Be", "Proof", and their most recent, "ARIRANG" [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BTS_albums_discography). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 02, 2026 - **Closes:** April 13, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [GTA 6 release date?](/markets/entertainment/video-games/gta-6-release-date/) - [Who will be cast in the next Miami Vice?](/markets/entertainment/movies/who-will-be-cast-in-the-next-miami-vice/) - [Where will ARIRANG chart on the Apr 18, 2026 Billboard 200?](/markets/entertainment/music-charts/where-will-arirang-chart-on-the-apr-18-2026-billboard-200/) - [Where will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS chart on the Apr 18, 2026 Billboard 200?](/markets/entertainment/music-charts/where-will-deb-tirar-m-s-fotos-chart-on-the-apr-18-2026-billboard-200/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.