# Runner-up USA Song on Spotify on Apr 10, 2026? On Apr 10, 2026 Chart Updated: April 10, 2026 Category: Entertainment Tags: Music charts HTML: /markets/entertainment/music-charts/runner-up-usa-song-on-spotify-on-apr-10-2026/ ## Short Answer **The model forecasts "Babydoll" as the most likely runner-up USA Song on Spotify, but assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market, showing a divergence in certainty.** While the **market** predicts **98.0%**, the **model**'s **probability** is **83.2%** for "Babydoll", despite its anticipated viral resurgence extending into 2026. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Harry Styles' album "Kiss All the Time" debuted at #1 in Q1 2026.** - Dominic Fike's "Babydoll" maintains a significant viral resurgence into 2026. - "Choosin' Texas" saw rapid chart ascent, but no new external boosts. - "Luther" won 2026 Record of the Year, but streaming boost peaked early. - Q1 2026 album release schedules and marketing budgets remain unavailable. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **0.4%** **probability** for Choosin' Texas creates a +0.4 point gap vs 0c **market**, due to no confirmed boosts. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Be Her | 17.0% | 16.4% | A track from Harry Styles' highly dominant album "Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally." | | Babydoll | 98.0% | 83.2% | "Babydoll" by Dominic Fike is expected to continue its viral resurgence into 2026. | | Choosin' Texas | 0.0% | 0.4% | Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" has shown rapid chart ascent and strong momentum. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Be Her | 17.0% | 16.4% | | Babydoll | 98.0% | 83.2% | | Choosin' Texas | 0.0% | 0.4% | | Stateside + Zara Larsson | 0.0% | 0.0% | | iloveitiloveitiloveit | 0.0% | 0.0% | | E85 | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Man I Need | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Earrings | 0.0% | 0.0% | | So Easy (To Fall In Love) | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Dreams - 2004 Remaster | 0.0% | 0.0% | | DtMF | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Risk It All | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Mr. Brightside | 0.0% | 0.0% | | weren't for the wind | 0.0% | 0.0% | | I Got Better | 0.0% | 0.0% | - Expiration: April 11, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics Based on the provided chart data, this market shows a complete lack of price movement and trading activity. The price has remained static at a 0.0% probability since its inception, resulting in a perfectly flat, sideways trend. There have been no price spikes, drops, or any significant movements to analyze. As there has been no price action and no external context was provided, it is not possible to correlate any events with market behavior. The most telling feature of this chart is the trading volume, which stands at zero contracts. This indicates that no shares have been bought or sold, signifying a total absence of market participation. The lack of volume suggests there is currently no conviction among traders regarding the outcome. The market is entirely illiquid, meaning no support or resistance levels have been established through trading. The 0.0% price point serves as a de facto floor and ceiling simply because the market has never moved. Overall, the chart suggests an absence of market sentiment. The combination of a static 0.0% price and zero volume implies that traders are either completely uncertain about an event so far in the future or that the market has not yet attracted any interest. At present, the market is dormant and does not reflect any collective opinion or speculation on which song will be the runner-up on Spotify on April 10, 2026. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves to "Yes" if the song "Be Her" is ranked #2 on the Daily Top Songs USA chart for April 10, 2026, with the outcome verified from Spotify Charts; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes upon data release or by April 10, 2026, at 11:59 PM EDT, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. Trading is prohibited for persons employed by source agencies or possessing material, non-public information related to the underlying. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Babydoll | 0% | 99% | 98% | $1 | $1 | | Be Her | 13% | 96% | 17% | $631 | $631 | | Choosin' Texas | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Dreams - 2004 Remaster | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | DtMF | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | E85 | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Earrings | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | I Got Better | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | iloveitiloveitiloveit | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Man I Need | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Mr. Brightside | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Risk It All | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | So Easy (To Fall In Love) | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Stateside + Zara Larsson | 0% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | weren't for the wind | 0% | 20% | 0% | $0 | $0 | ## Are Q1 2026 Album Release Schedules and Budgets Publicly Available? Post Malone Q1 2026 Album Release | Not available [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/lists/new-albums-2026-calendar-new-music-releases-this-year/albums-expected-in-2026/) | Camila Cabello Q1 2026 Album Release | Not available [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/lists/new-albums-2026-calendar-new-music-releases-this-year/albums-expected-in-2026/) | Q1 2026 Album Marketing Budgets | Not available (proprietary information) [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/lists/new-albums-2026-calendar-new-music-releases-this-year/albums-expected-in-2026/) | **Q1 2026 album release schedules and marketing budgets are unavailable** Q1 2026 album release schedules and marketing budgets are unavailable. Web research did not yield specific Q1 2026 album release schedules or associated marketing budgets for leading **market** artists such as Post Malone, Camila Cabello, or the artist behind 'Choosin' Texas'. Forward-looking release dates for these artists were not found, nor were any details regarding their potential marketing expenditures for that period. Specific Q1 2026 album release dates remain undisclosed. Sources consulted, including Billboard's 'New Albums in 2026' calendars [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/lists/new-albums-2026-calendar-new-music-releases-this-year/albums-expected-in-2026/), do not list specific Q1 2026 album release dates for artists like Post Malone or Camila Cabello. While Ella Langley has been identified as the artist for 'Choosin' Texas' [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choosin'_Texas), the research similarly lacks any information concerning her future album release schedule for the first quarter of 2026. Marketing budget information for Q1 2026 releases is not public. The web research did not provide any details regarding associated marketing budgets from major labels, such as Interscope, Republic, or Columbia, for any Q1 2026 album releases, including those potentially by the mentioned artists. This type of financial information, particularly marketing budgets for album releases, is typically proprietary business data and is not publicly disclosed in the types of sources that were available. ## Are specific songs in advanced sync negotiations for 2026 placements? Sync Placement Negotiations | No advanced negotiations found for major film, TV, or national ad placements (Jan-Mar 2026) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/1-song-on-us-spotify-this-week-april-10). | Ella Langley - Choosin' Texas | Rapid ascent to top of charts and cultural impact [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choosin'_Texas). | Dominic Fike - Babydoll | Significant viral resurgence, with trending status extending into 2026 [[^]](https://www.aceshowbiz.com/news/view/00249132.html). | **No specific synchronization placements are confirmed for the listed songs** No specific synchronization placements are confirmed for the listed songs. Web research did not identify information indicating that any of the listed songs, including 'Choosin' Texas' by Ella Langley or 'Babydoll' by Dominic Fike, are in advanced negotiations for key synchronization placements. These placements would typically involve major films, TV series finales, or national advertising campaigns (e.g., Super Bowl LX) set to air between January and March 2026. The available sources primarily focus on the current or recent commercial success and viral trends of these tracks, rather than future licensing agreements or confirmed placements. Both songs demonstrate significant current commercial success and viral engagement. Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' has garnered attention for its rapid ascent to the top of music charts and its cultural impact [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choosin'_Texas). Similarly, Dominic Fike's 'Babydoll,' an older track, has experienced a notable viral resurgence. This resurgence has led to significant surges on streaming platforms and chart placements years after its initial release, with its trending status noted to extend into 2026 [[^]](https://www.aceshowbiz.com/news/view/00249132.html). Current popularity does not confirm future synchronization licensing agreements. While these trends indicate significant audience engagement and potential for future opportunities, the research does not directly address confirmed or advanced negotiations for synchronization placements in major media for the specified timeframe. Furthermore, prediction **market** sources mentioned in the research, such as those on Polymarket [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/1-song-on-us-spotify-this-week-april-10), pertain to potential chart performance rather than specific licensing agreements. ## How Do Reunion Tours Boost Artist Streaming and Future Tour Plans? Oasis Spotify Stream Surge | 320% (following reunion tour concerts) [[^]](https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/oasis-streams-surged-320-on-spotify-globally-after-first-reunion-tour-concerts-in-cardiff/) | Q1 2026 Tour Kickoffs | No information available for listed artists (from provided sources) [[^]](https://www.trapital.com/chartmetric) | Cross-Platform Engagement Example | Oasis demonstrated significant historical track record following tour events (Chartmetric analysis) [[^]](https://hmc.chartmetric.com/oasis-reunion-tours-effect-on-streaming/) | **Oasis exemplifies strong cross-platform engagement following major tour events** Oasis exemplifies strong cross-platform engagement following major tour events. While specific "cross-platform performance scores" for artists directly following tour announcements were not provided in the research, Oasis demonstrated a significant historical track record in this area, with their global Spotify streams surging by **320%** after their first reunion tour concerts in Cardiff [[^]](https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/oasis-streams-surged-320-on-spotify-globally-after-first-reunion-tour-concerts-in-cardiff/). This highlights the potent digital impact that major tour announcements and subsequent performances can have on an artist's reach and listenership, with Oasis serving as a prominent example of strong fan re-engagement driven by reunion tours [[^]](https://hmc.chartmetric.com/oasis-reunion-tours-effect-on-streaming/). Music analytics platforms like Chartmetric analyze such phenomena through "cross-metric analysis" to add context to artist statistics and features [[^]](https://hmc.chartmetric.com/oasis-reunion-tours-effect-on-streaming/). Brent Faiyaz is another artist listed on Chartmetric for analytics, though specific tour-related performance metrics were not detailed for him [[^]](https://app.chartmetric.com/artist/207300). No artists mentioned are planning Q1 2026 tour kickoffs. The provided web research does not contain information indicating that any artists discussed, including Oasis or Brent Faiyaz, are planning a tour kickoff during Q1 2026. The available sources primarily focus on music analytics, chart performance data, and the impact of past tours, rather than detailing future tour scheduling [[^]](https://www.trapital.com/chartmetric). ## Which Superstar Artist Achieved #1 Album in Q1 2026? Superstar Artist with #1 Album | Harry Styles [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/lists/new-albums-2026-calendar-new-music-releases-this-year/) | Album Title and Release Date | "Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally." on February 14, 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiss_All_the_Time._Disco,_Occasionally) | Peak Chart Performance | Debuted at No. 1 on Billboard 200, held top spot for week ending Feb 28, 2026 [[^]](https://ca.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/2026-02-28) | **Harry Styles released a dominant album in Q1 2026** Harry Styles released a dominant album in Q1 2026. His album, "Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally.," was released on February 14, 2026, falling squarely within the first quarter of the year [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiss_All_the_Time._Disco,_Occasionally). This significant release quickly ascended the charts, debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 [[^]](https://www.songfacts.com/articles/harry-styles-kiss-all-the-time-disco-occasionally-hits-no-1-on-billboard-200/). The album maintained its strong performance, holding the top position for the chart week ending February 28, 2026 [[^]](https://ca.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/2026-02-28). This high-profile debut and sustained chart presence from Styles created an "album bomb" scenario, effectively securing the No. 1 spot. Other superstar artists lack confirmed Q1 2026 album releases. While Bruno Mars has a confirmed album titled "The Romantic" [[^]](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/bruno-mars-new-album-done-1235494480), the provided research does not specify a Q1 2026 release date for this project. Furthermore, general lists of upcoming music releases or highest-selling artists through Q1 2026 do not explicitly name other superstar artists, such as Taylor Swift, Drake, or Bad Bunny, with confirmed album releases and chart-topping potential during Q1 2026 based on the available information [[^]](https://www.billboard.com/lists/new-albums-2026-calendar-new-music-releases-this-year/). ## Did 'Luther' Grammy Win Impact Streaming by April 2026? Record of the Year Winner | 'Luther' by Kendrick Lamar and SZA [[^]](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/kendrick-lamar-sza-record-of-the-year-luther-2026-grammys-1235508452/) | Grammy Awards Year | 2026 [[^]](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/kendrick-lamar-sza-record-of-the-year-luther-2026-grammys-1235508452/) | Post-Grammy Boost by April 2026 | Likely peaked or subsided before April 10, 2026 [[^]](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/kendrick-lamar-sza-record-of-the-year-luther-2026-grammys-1235508452/) | **Kendrick Lamar and SZA's 'Luther' secured the Record of the Year award** Kendrick Lamar and SZA's 'Luther' secured the Record of the Year award. At the 2026 Grammy Awards, 'Luther' by Kendrick Lamar and SZA received this top honor [[^]](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/kendrick-lamar-sza-record-of-the-year-luther-2026-grammys-1235508452/). Kendrick Lamar was a leading figure in the overall nominations for the 2026 Grammy Awards [[^]](https://thin.npr.org/2025/11/07/nx-s1-5600968/2026-grammys-complete-list-of-nominations). While a comprehensive list of nominees was confirmed to exist [[^]](https://grammy.com/news/2026-grammys-nominations-full-winners-nominees-list), the research did not provide specific song titles for other contenders in the Record of the Year category beyond the winner. Any post-Grammy streaming surge would precede the April 10th chart week. Historically, a significant increase in streaming for Grammy-nominated or winning songs generally occurs immediately following the awards ceremony. Given that 'Luther' by Kendrick Lamar and SZA won Record of the Year at the 2026 Grammys [[^]](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/kendrick-lamar-sza-record-of-the-year-luther-2026-grammys-1235508452/), the ceremony would have concluded well in advance of the chart week leading up to April 10, 2026. Consequently, any initial streaming boost resulting from this win or other nominations would most likely have peaked or begun to significantly decline prior to April 10, 2026 [[^]](https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/kendrick-lamar-sza-record-of-the-year-luther-2026-grammys-1235508452/). The available research does not detail specific historical data regarding the typical duration or impact timeline of a post-Grammy streaming boost [[^]](https://kworb.net/spotify/country/us_daily.html). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 24, 2026 - **Closes:** April 11, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [GTA 6 release date?](/markets/entertainment/video-games/gta-6-release-date/) - [Who will be the next James Bond?](/markets/entertainment/movies/who-will-be-the-next-james-bond/) - [2026 Grammy nominations for Album of the Year?](/markets/entertainment/awards/2026-grammy-nominations-for-album-of-the-year/) - [2026 Grammy nominations for Song of the Year?](/markets/entertainment/awards/2026-grammy-nominations-for-song-of-the-year/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXSPOTIFY2D-26APR08-WHI: NO (Apr 09, 2026) - KXSPOTIFY2D-26APR08-WER: NO (Apr 09, 2026) - KXSPOTIFY2D-26APR08-STA: NO (Apr 09, 2026) - KXSPOTIFY2D-26APR08-SOE: NO (Apr 09, 2026) - KXSPOTIFY2D-26APR08-RIS: NO (Apr 09, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.