# Newark Mayor winner?

In 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: US Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/us-elections/newark-mayor-winner/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Ras Baraka is most likely to win the Newark Mayoral election, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Ras Baraka is the incumbent and has demonstrated strong fundraising.** - Baraka actively pursuing 2025 gubernatorial bid, may impact 2026 eligibility.
- Four candidates officially qualified for the May 2026 Newark mayoral ballot.
- No challengers have secured major institutional endorsements or financing details.
- Campaign finance data for 2026 Newark mayoral candidates is currently unavailable.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 96c suggests overvaluation compared to the **94.3%** **model** **probability**, implying a -2.2 point gap.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ras Baraka | 96.5% | 94.3% | Ras Baraka, as the incumbent mayor, holds a strong advantage for re-election. |
| Douglas R. Davis | 0.1% | 0.1% | Douglas R. Davis is a longshot candidate with limited political presence. |
| Jhamar Youngblood | 1.0% | 1.1% | Jhamar Youngblood is a longshot candidate with limited political presence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Ras Baraka | 96.5% | 94.3% |
| Douglas R. Davis | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jhamar Youngblood | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Sheila Montague | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Debra Salters | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Tanisha Garner | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Noble Milton | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Nasheedah Singleton | 1.0% | 1.1% |

- Expiration: June 12, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market for the 2026 Newark Mayoral election demonstrates a period of extremely low volatility and high consensus. The price has consistently traded in a very narrow band between 94.1% and 96.5%. The overall trend is sideways, with a slight upward drift from its starting point to its current price, which is also the peak of the range. This price action suggests that market participants have maintained a stable and exceptionally high degree of confidence in the 'YES' outcome for the duration of the trading period.

There have been no significant price spikes or drops, indicating a lack of news or events that would cause traders to substantively re-evaluate their positions. The market's stability implies that the high probability assigned to the outcome is a deeply entrenched view. Total volume is relatively low at 337 contracts, which, paired with the stable price, points to a lack of meaningful opposition or new capital challenging the consensus. The price floor around 94.1% has acted as a firm support level, while the current high of 96.5% serves as the immediate resistance. Overall, the chart reflects a quiet market with a very strong and unwavering sentiment that the 'YES' proposition is a near-certainty.

## Contract Snapshot

A 'Yes' resolution occurs if Ras Baraka wins the 2026 Newark mayoral election, including any runoffs, with the outcome verified by the Essex County Board of Elections. A 'No' resolution occurs if he does not win. The market opened on March 12, 2026, 10:00 am EDT, and closes either after the outcome occurs (potentially accelerated by media consensus) or by June 12, 2027, 10:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Douglas R. Davis | 0.2% | 1% | 0.1% | $1,112 | $462 |
| Debra Salters | 0.1% | 1% | 1% | $160 | $132 |
| Jhamar Youngblood | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1% | $366 | $342 |
| Noble Milton | 1% | 1.1% | 1% | $33 | $33 |
| Nasheedah Singleton | 1% | 1.8% | 1% | $33 | $33 |
| Ras Baraka | 96.7% | 97% | 96.5% | $4,101 | $3,381 |
| Sheila Montague | 0.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | $208 | $167 |
| Tanisha Garner | 1% | 1.1% | 1% | $34 | $34 |

## What are Ras Baraka's political plans for 2025 and 2026?

Gubernatorial Campaign Funds Raised | $1.146 million [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/baraka-raised-1-146-million-and-qualifies-for-matching-funds/) |
Matching Funds Eligibility Threshold | $500,000 [[^]](https://www.elec.nj.gov/pdffiles/press_releases/pr_2025/pr_05132025.pdf) |
2026 Mayoral Re-election Status | Not officially ruled out as of EOY 2024 [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/baraka-hasnt-said-if-hell-seek-re-election-in-2026-if-governors-race-fails/) |

**Newark Mayor Ras Baraka raised significant funds for his potential 2025 gubernatorial bid**

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka raised significant funds for his potential 2025 gubernatorial bid. He has actively pursued a 2025 gubernatorial campaign, raising **$1.146** million [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/baraka-raised-1-146-million-and-qualifies-for-matching-funds/). This amount qualifies him for state matching funds from the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC), as gubernatorial candidates must raise at least **$500,000** to be eligible [[^]](https://www.elec.nj.gov/pdffiles/press_releases/pr_2025/pr_05132025.pdf).

Baraka has not ruled out a 2026 mayoral re-election bid by EOY 2024. By the end of 2024, he had not made any definitive public statements officially ruling out a run for re-election as Newark's mayor in 2026 [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/baraka-hasnt-said-if-hell-seek-re-election-in-2026-if-governors-race-fails/). Reports indicate he has not committed to whether he would seek re-election as mayor if his gubernatorial ambitions do not materialize, keeping the option of a mayoral re-election campaign open [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/baraka-hasnt-said-if-hell-seek-re-election-in-2026-if-governors-race-fails/).

## What is the Campaign Finance Status for 2026 Newark Mayoral Candidates?

Non-Incumbent Cash-on-Hand | Not yet available (January 2026 filing deadline not passed) [[^]](https://www.elec.nj.gov/forcandidates/datescurrent.htm) |
Non-Incumbent Donation Origins | Not yet available (January 2026 filing deadline not passed) [[^]](https://www.elec.nj.gov/forcandidates/datescurrent.htm) |
2026 Newark Mayoral Election Finance Filing Deadline | Not yet occurred (over a year away) [[^]](https://www.elec.nj.gov/forcandidates/datescurrent.htm) |

**Campaign financial data for 2026 Newark mayoral candidates is currently unavailable**

Campaign financial data for 2026 Newark mayoral candidates is currently unavailable. Specific cash-on-hand figures and donation origin percentages, including the breakdown of Newark-based versus outside interests, cannot be determined for non-incumbent candidates at this time. This is because the January 2026 filing deadline for the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC) reports has not yet occurred, with the election still over a year away [[^]](https://www.elec.nj.gov/forcandidates/datescurrent.htm).

Several individuals have announced their intention to challenge the incumbent mayor. Current Mayor Ras Baraka is anticipated to seek re-election for the 2026 mayoral race [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/baraka-draws-seven-opponents-in-newark-mayoral-race-none-of-them-credible/). Among those who have declared their candidacy are Sheila Montague, Junior R. Maldonado, and Dr. Debra Salters [[^]](https://patch.com/new-jersey/newarknj/newark-election-2026-see-list-candidates-mayor-city-council). Other potential candidates, such as Bruce King, have also been noted [[^]](https://patch.com/new-jersey/newarknj/newark-election-2026-see-list-candidates-mayor-city-council).

## Which Candidate Secured Newark Mayoral Endorsements by March 2026?

Essex County Democratic Committee Endorsement | No candidate other than potential incumbent Ras Baraka [[^]](https://www.essexdems.org/) |
Newark City Council Majority Endorsement | No candidate other than potential incumbent Ras Baraka [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Newark,_New_Jersey_(2026)) |
Candidates with Both Endorsements by March 1, 2026 | None identified other than potential incumbent Ras Baraka [[^]](https://www.essexdems.org/) |

**No non-incumbent candidate has secured the Essex County Democratic Committee endorsement**

No non-incumbent candidate has secured the Essex County Democratic Committee endorsement. As of the available research, no candidate, other than a potential incumbent Ras Baraka, is documented to have secured the formal public endorsement of the Essex County Democratic Committee for the 2026 Newark mayoral election [[^]](https://www.essexdems.org/). While various news sources mention potential opponents to Baraka, they do not explicitly indicate an Essex County Democratic Committee endorsement for any non-incumbent mayoral candidate. The committee's official website, as referenced, does not show such an endorsement for a candidate other than Baraka [[^]](https://www.essexdems.org/).

No candidate has secured majority Newark City Council endorsements by March 1, 2026. Furthermore, the provided research does not indicate that any candidate for the 2026 Newark mayoral race, other than a potential incumbent Baraka, has secured the formal public endorsement of a majority of Newark City Council members by March 1, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Newark,_New_Jersey_(2026)). The sources discuss the upcoming election but do not detail specific endorsements from the Newark City Council for any candidate. Therefore, based on the information provided, no candidate meets both specified criteria by the deadline.

## What was 2022 Newark mayoral election turnout by ward and 2026 challenger connections?

2022 Mayoral Election Turnout | Low overall voter turnout [[^]](https://www.arkrepublic.com/2022/05/11/baraka-gets-reelected-in-newarks-low-voter-turnout-results-show-battles-in-several-wards/) |
2022 Ward-by-Ward Data | Not available in provided sources [[^]](https://patch.com/new-jersey/newarknj/newark-mayor-council-election-results-here-s-who-leading) |
2026 Challenger with Ward Connection | Jhamar Youngblood (Central Ward) [[^]](https://www.jhamar25.com/) |

**Ward-by-ward voter data for Newark's 2022 mayoral election is limited**

Ward-by-ward voter data for Newark's 2022 mayoral election is limited. Specific ward-level voter registration and turnout statistics for the 2022 Newark mayoral election are not available in the provided research. While Mayor Ras Baraka secured a landslide victory, the overall election was marked by low voter turnout [[^]](https://www.arkrepublic.com/2022/05/11/baraka-gets-reelected-in-newarks-low-voter-turnout-results-show-battles-in-several-wards/). Although sources mentioned "battles in several wards" for other positions, detailed ward-specific turnout percentages and registration numbers for the mayoral race are not included in the findings [[^]](https://www.arkrepublic.com/2022/05/11/baraka-gets-reelected-in-newarks-low-voter-turnout-results-show-battles-in-several-wards/).

Jhamar Youngblood shows the most established ward presence among challengers. Several potential mayoral challengers for 2026 have been identified, including Jhamar Youngblood, Sheila Montague, Lyndon Brown, Chanel Dawson, Cynthia Cotton, and Kollie Kromah [[^]](https://new.patch.com/new-jersey/newarknj/newark-election-2026-see-list-candidates-mayor-city-council). Among these individuals, Jhamar Youngblood possesses the most established personal history and campaign infrastructure within a potentially high-turnout area, specifically the Central Ward. Youngblood previously sought election as the Central Ward Councilman, indicating a direct and sustained focus in that area [[^]](https://www.jhamar25.com/). The available information does not provide comparable details about other challengers' established campaign infrastructure or personal history in other specific wards such as East or North.

## Which Candidates Qualified for Newark Mayor and Face Challenges?

Petition Filing Deadline | March 10, 2026 [[^]](http://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Newark,_New_Jersey_(2026)) |
Qualified Mayoral Candidates | 4 (Ras Baraka, Sheila Y. Oliver, Michael B. Jackson, Anthony J. Davis) [[^]](http://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Newark,_New_Jersey_(2026)) |
Petition Legal Challenges | None reported for qualified candidates [[^]](http://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Newark,_New_Jersey_(2026)) |

**Four candidates officially qualified for the May 2026 Newark mayoral ballot**

Four candidates officially qualified for the May 2026 Newark mayoral ballot. As of early April 2026, four individuals successfully submitted the required petition signatures to the City Clerk, meeting the March 10, 2026 filing deadline for the May 2026 Newark mayoral election. These qualified candidates include incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka, Sheila Y. Oliver, Michael B. Jackson, and Anthony J. Davis [[^]](http://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Newark,_New_Jersey_(2026)).

No formal legal challenges currently impact the mayoral candidates' qualifications. Available research indicates that none of these four qualified mayoral candidates are facing formal legal challenges to the validity of their submitted petitions [[^]](http://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_Newark,_New_Jersey_(2026)). Although a total of 42 candidates submitted petitions across all ten positions for the Newark Municipal Election, the specific mayoral contenders remain those who have officially qualified without reported challenges to their ballot status.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** June 12, 2027
- **Closes:** June 12, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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