# Iowa's 3rd District margin of victory

Iowa's 3rd District

Updated: May 10, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: US Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/us-elections/iowa-s-3rd-district-margin-of-victory/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing: Democrats, 2+ pts at **57.9%** **model** vs **75.0%** **market**, suggesting the **market** may be underpricing the likelihood of wider Democratic victory margins.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- The incumbent Republican faces a complicated environment in 2026.** Prediction markets currently suggest a Democratic victory in IA-03.
   National economic pressures likely influence 2026 midterm voter turnout.
   Incumbent Zach Nunn's record shows partial alignment with Democratic priorities.
*   The June 2026 Democratic primary outcome will influence general election strategy.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 75c is 17.1pp above the **57.9%** **model**, suggesting overvaluation despite Nunn securing 2024 victory.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | The incumbent Republican faces a more complicated environment in 2026, leading markets to suggest a Democratic victory. |
| Democrats, 14+ pts | 7.9% | 4.6% | The incumbent Republican faces a more complicated environment in 2026, leading markets to suggest a Democratic victory. |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 13.0% | 7.5% | The incumbent Republican faces a more complicated environment in 2026, leading markets to suggest a Democratic victory. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% |
| Democrats, 14+ pts | 7.9% | 4.6% |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 13.0% | 7.5% |
| Democrats, 5+ pts | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Democrats, 8+ pts | 0.0% | 7.5% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price chart for this market shows a dramatic upward trend, beginning at a low of 1.1% and climbing to its current price of 75.0%. The most significant movement was a rapid increase in early May 2026, where the probability jumped from 1.1% to 60.0% and then experienced a further 15.0 percentage point spike to 75.0% on May 10. According to the provided context, there is no clear event or news driver identified that would explain this sharp price increase. The current price of 75.0% represents the peak trading level and acts as a key resistance point for the market.

Despite the significant price appreciation, the volume data suggests limited market participation during these key shifts. The sample data points show that the price increases from 1.1% to 60.0% and then to 75.0% all occurred on zero volume. While the total volume traded is 2,462 contracts, the lack of volume during these spikes indicates that the price movement may be the result of low liquidity or significant order book changes rather than a broad wave of trading activity. This pattern suggests that while market sentiment has clearly shifted to strongly favor a "YES" outcome, the conviction behind this price level may not be supported by heavy trading.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 10, 2026: 15.0pp spike

Price increased from 60.0% to 75.0%

**Outcome:** Democrats, 2+ pts

**What happened:** The provided web research does not identify a clear primary driver for the 15.0 percentage point spike in the "Democrats, 2+ pts" outcome on May 10, 2026. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives related to this specific market movement was found in the available sources. While a May 10, 2026, news article discussed Iowa Democrats' campaign strategy, the search results available do not surface any stated numeric 15.0pp change or specific spike in the Iowa 3rd District Democratic margin attributable to that day’s event [[^]](https://www.thegazette.com/news/elections/iowa-democrats-target-trump-rising-costs-in-us-house-race/article_6a89943c-4609-40f0-9bcd-2494775fbdfe.html). Therefore, social media activity cannot be assessed as a primary driver or contributing accelerant due to a lack of relevant information.

## Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House election in Iowa's 3rd District by 5 percentage points or more, with the margin calculated as their vote percentage minus the runner-up's, applied without rounding. A "No" resolution triggers if this condition is not met. The market opened on May 5, 2026, and will close after the election outcome is certified, but no later than November 3, 2027, with an option for early closure if certified results are published sooner.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 13% | 16% | 13% | $1,234 | $162 |
| Democrats, 14+ pts | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | $1,345 | $157 |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 68% | 75% | 75% | $2,462 | $352 |
| Democrats, 5+ pts | 48% | 56% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Democrats, 8+ pts | 28% | 36% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## Which national political issues, as identified by the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, are most likely to influence voter turnout in Iowa's 3rd District for the 2026 midterms?

Key IA-03 Turnout Issues | National economic cost pressures, especially affordability [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/video/first-person/amy-walter-what-year-voter-turnout-could-mean-2026) |
2026 Midterm Engagement Drivers | Voters’ assessments of party performance and presidential approval trajectories [[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-midterm-loss-rule-what-do-voters-expect-in-2026/) |
Typical Midterm Turnout | Lower than the prior presidential election, with demographically different electorates [[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/three-things-that-usually-happen-in-midterms/)[[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rust-on-the-midterm-iron-law-voter-expectations-for-2026/) |

**National economic pressures significantly influence 2026 midterm voter turnout**

National economic pressures significantly influence 2026 midterm voter turnout. Affordability and broader economic cost pressures are identified as key national political issues likely to influence voter turnout in Iowa's 3rd District for the 2026 midterms [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/video/first-person/amy-walter-what-year-voter-turnout-could-mean-2026). The Cook Political Report indicates these economic pressures are crucial turnout levers, affecting voter enthusiasm and anger [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/video/first-person/amy-walter-what-year-voter-turnout-could-mean-2026). Issues most likely to influence turnout in IA-03 are those that dominate nationalized campaign messaging for competitive seats, as identified by the Battleground Issue Tracker [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/toolbox/battleground-issue-tracker/2026)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/toolbox/battleground-issue-tracker/2026/house-trendlines).

Broader voter assessments and presidential approval impact midterm engagement. Turnout is also likely to be influenced by voters’ assessments of party performance, presidential approval trajectories, and national issues that energize or "corrode" perceived incumbent momentum [[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-midterm-loss-rule-what-do-voters-expect-in-2026/)[[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rust-on-the-midterm-iron-law-voter-expectations-for-2026/)[[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/three-things-that-usually-happen-in-midterms/). Sabato’s Crystal Ball links 2026 midterm electoral engagement to these voter assessments [[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-midterm-loss-rule-what-do-voters-expect-in-2026/). Research notes an expectation of a drop in Trump’s approval and that the Republican lead on control expectations eroded from spring to fall, patterns consistent with shifting enthusiasm that can affect turnout [[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-midterm-loss-rule-what-do-voters-expect-in-2026/)[[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rust-on-the-midterm-iron-law-voter-expectations-for-2026/). Furthermore, structural midterm turnout patterns typically show lower turnout than in the prior presidential election, and midterm electorates differ demographically. This implies that any national issue that energizes or "corrodes" perceived incumbent momentum can have an outsized effect on whether supporters vote in 2026 [[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rust-on-the-midterm-iron-law-voter-expectations-for-2026/)[[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/three-things-that-usually-happen-in-midterms/).

## How does incumbent Zach Nunn's voting record in the 119th Congress align or conflict with the stated policy priorities of the Iowa Democratic Party's 2026 platform?

Total Votes Cast | 424 in the 119th Congress [[^]](https://www.usquery.com/member-query/results/?chamber=House+of+Representatives&congress=119&member=N000193) |
ACA Subsidies Extension Vote | Passed 230-196 on January 8, 2026 [[^]](http://www.thenorthwestern.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/08/zach-nunn-us-house-vote-aca-subsidies/88083249007/) |
Farm, Food, and National Security Act Vote | Passed 224-200 [[^]](https://nunn.house.gov/2026/04/30/farm-bill-passes-u-s-house-with-21-priorities-secured-by-rep-nunn/)[[^]](https://nunn.house.gov/2026/03/05/nunn-secures-21-wins-for-iowa-producers-in-committee-passed-farm-bill/) |

**Incumbent Zach Nunn's record shows partial alignment with Iowa Democratic priorities**

Incumbent Zach Nunn's record shows partial alignment with Iowa Democratic priorities. Zach Nunn's voting record in the 119th Congress indicates partial alignment with certain stated policy priorities of the Iowa Democratic Party's 2026 platform, particularly in the agricultural sector. However, a comprehensive assessment is challenged by the limited availability of specific roll-call evidence for many key policy areas, allowing for the analysis of only a small subset of his 424 total votes [[^]](https://www.usquery.com/member-query/results/?chamber=House+of+Representatives&congress=119&member=N000193). For civil rights, reproductive rights, and environmental stewardship, the retrieved sources did not provide specific roll calls directly addressing the Iowa Democratic platform's commitments, making it difficult to conclusively determine alignment or conflict in these areas [[^]](https://iowademocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Final-State-Platform-Report-2024.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/zachary_zach_nunn/456898)[[^]](https://iowademocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2024-Statement-of-Principles-4.docx.pdf).

Nunn aligns partially on healthcare, more substantially on agriculture. On health care, Nunn supported the extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, a measure that passed the House 230-196 on January 8, 2026 [[^]](http://www.thenorthwestern.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/08/zach-nunn-us-house-vote-aca-subsidies/88083249007/). While this action aligns with the Iowa Democratic platform's emphasis on health care cost-affordability, it does not directly address the party's explicit commitments to expanding and guaranteeing broader health access, including contraception, abortion access, and codifying Roe [[^]](https://iowademocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Final-State-Platform-Report-2024.pdf)[[^]](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/zachary_zach_nunn/456898). In the area of agriculture and rural priorities, Nunn demonstrated a more substantial alignment by securing the passage of the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 in a 224-200 House vote and advocating for "21 priorities" beneficial to Iowa producers, such as defending the food supply and rural communities [[^]](https://nunn.house.gov/2026/04/30/farm-bill-passes-u-s-house-with-21-priorities-secured-by-rep-nunn/)[[^]](https://nunn.house.gov/2026/03/05/nunn-secures-21-wins-for-iowa-producers-in-committee-passed-farm-bill/). This represents at least partial alignment with the Iowa Democratic platform’s goals for climate-smart and regenerative agriculture and a healthy food supply, though the precise degree of alignment hinges on the specific provisions of the bill, which were not detailed in the retrieved information [[^]](https://nunn.house.gov/2026/04/30/farm-bill-passes-u-s-house-with-21-priorities-secured-by-rep-nunn/)[[^]](https://nunn.house.gov/2026/03/05/nunn-secures-21-wins-for-iowa-producers-in-committee-passed-farm-bill/)[[^]](https://iowademocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Final-State-Platform-Report-2024.pdf).

## What is the expected release schedule for public, non-partisan polling for the IA-03 race between the June 2026 primary and the November 2026 general election?

IA-03 Primary Election Date | June 2, 2026 [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/cal3yr.pdf)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026) |
IA-03 General Election Date | November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/cal3yr.pdf)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026) |
Public Polling Release Schedule | No standardized schedule [[^]](https://www.bleedingheartland.com/static/media/2025/11/IA-03-Polling-Memo-October-2025-.pdf) |

**Public polling for IA-03 lacks a fixed release schedule**

Public polling for IA-03 lacks a fixed release schedule. There is no standardized, non-partisan public polling release schedule established for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District between the June 2, 2026 primary and the November 3, 2026 general election [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/cal3yr.pdf)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.bleedingheartland.com/static/media/2025/11/IA-03-Polling-Memo-October-2025-.pdf). Instead, the timing of poll releases is pollster-specific and occurs on ad hoc dates rather than following a fixed or expected timetable [[^]](https://www.bleedingheartland.com/static/media/2025/11/IA-03-Toplines-October-2025-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.bleedingheartland.com/static/media/2025/11/IA-03-Polling-Memo-October-2025-.pdf). An illustration of this ad hoc approach is a public IA-03 district poll by Change Research/Prometheus, which published toplines for likely 2026 voters based on fieldwork conducted from October 23–27, 2025, with results released on November 14, 2025 [[^]](https://www.bleedingheartland.com/static/media/2025/11/IA-03-Toplines-October-2025-1.pdf)[[^]](https://www.bleedingheartland.com/static/media/2025/11/IA-03-Polling-Memo-October-2025-.pdf).

Prediction **market** resolutions depend on official results, not poll releases. It is important to note that the resolution for prediction **market** items regarding the IA-03 race is tied to the publication of official certified results, rather than to the specific dates when polling data is released [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kxmidtermmov-ia03d)[[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/ia-03-house-election-winner).

## What fundraising and spending patterns from the 2024 Nunn vs. Baccam race provide a baseline for the financial requirements to win IA-03 in 2026?

Winning candidate disbursements (2024) | $5.86 million (Zach Nunn) [[^]](https://eu.fayobserver.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/05/zach-nunn-lanon-baccam-face-off-in-iowas-3rd-congressional-district/75777485007/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4IA03172/) |
Total outside spending (2024) | $15.7 million [[^]](https://eu.fayobserver.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/05/zach-nunn-lanon-baccam-face-off-in-iowas-3rd-congressional-district/75777485007/) |
Projected 2026 winning campaign disbursements | $5 million to $6 million [[^]](https://eu.fayobserver.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/05/zach-nunn-lanon-baccam-face-off-in-iowas-3rd-congressional-district/75777485007/) |

**The 2024 IA-03 race saw tight spending and a Nunn victory**

The 2024 IA-03 race saw tight spending and a Nunn victory. Republican incumbent Zach Nunn secured Iowa's 3rd Congressional District with a **52%**–**48%** margin against Lanon Baccam [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2024). Nunn's campaign recorded **$5.81** million in receipts and **$5.86** million in disbursements, while Baccam reported **$5.61** million in receipts and **$5.59** million in disbursements by the end of 2024 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4IA03172/). Although Baccam outspent Nunn in the final quarter, Nunn maintained a notable cash-on-hand advantage in the last month of the race, holding approximately **$1.8** million compared to Baccam's **$0.7** million [[^]](http://eu.progress-index.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/16/democrats-raise-spend-more-in-iowa-district-congressional-races-election-day-2024/75691690007/).

External funding significantly shaped the 2024 congressional election in IA-03. The overall financial environment included approximately **$15.7** million in outside spending [[^]](https://eu.fayobserver.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/05/zach-nunn-lanon-baccam-face-off-in-iowas-3rd-congressional-district/75777485007/). This external funding allocated around **$3.0** million to support Nunn and **$0.95** million to support Baccam. Concurrently, substantial opposition spending was observed, with over **$6** million spent against Baccam and **$5.7** million against Nunn [[^]](https://eu.fayobserver.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/05/zach-nunn-lanon-baccam-face-off-in-iowas-3rd-congressional-district/75777485007/). This financial pattern suggests that a candidate's late-campaign cash positioning, alongside external support and opposition, can be a decisive factor in closely contested elections [[^]](http://eu.progress-index.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/16/democrats-raise-spend-more-in-iowa-district-congressional-races-election-day-2024/75691690007/)[[^]](https://eu.fayobserver.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/05/zach-nunn-lanon-baccam-face-off-in-iowas-3rd-congressional-district/75777485007/).

Winning IA-03 in 2026 will demand substantial financial commitment. Based on the financial dynamics of the 2024 race, candidates in a similarly competitive district will likely need to budget for direct campaign disbursements ranging from **$5** million to **$6** million. This direct campaign spending is projected to be augmented by significant outside spending, estimated to fall between **$10** million and **$16** million [[^]](https://eu.fayobserver.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/05/zach-nunn-lanon-baccam-face-off-in-iowas-3rd-congressional-district/75777485007/).

## What impact will the outcome of the June 2, 2026 Democratic primary have on the party's general election strategy against Zach Nunn?

Sarah Trone Garriott Receipts | $3,080,897 (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sarah_Trone_Garriott)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary)) |
Sarah Trone Garriott Cash on Hand | $2,188,320 (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sarah_Trone_Garriott)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary)) |
Xavier Carrigan Financials | $0 receipts, disbursements, or cash (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sarah_Trone_Garriott) |

**The outcome of the June 2, 2026 Democratic primary will significantly influence the party's general election strategy in Iowa’s 3rd District**

The outcome of the June 2, 2026 Democratic primary will significantly influence the party's general election strategy in Iowa’s 3rd District. This primary will nominate either Sarah Trone Garriott or Xavier Carrigan, and the choice will notably impact post-primary fundraising and the rapid establishment of general election infrastructure. These factors are critical for effectively competing against Zach Nunn in this inherently competitive seat [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_Party_primaries_in_Iowa,_2026)[[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/cal3yr.pdf)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sarah_Trone_Garriott)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483096)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026).

Financial disparities significantly differentiate primary candidates' positions. As of March 31, 2026, Sarah Trone Garriott reported **$3,080,897** in receipts and held **$2,188,320** cash on hand. In contrast, Xavier Carrigan reported **$0** in receipts, disbursements, or cash [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Sarah_Trone_Garriott). This financial imbalance will necessitate distinct strategic considerations for the Democratic party depending on who wins the primary. The district's competitiveness is further highlighted by Zach Nunn’s 2024 victory by four points, a Cook PVI of R+2 for IA-03, and prediction markets indicating a narrow contest [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483096)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ia03r).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 2024 general election for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District was closely contested, with incumbent Zach Nunn (R) winning 51.8% of the vote against Lanon Baccam (D)'s 47.9%, a margin of 3.9 percentage points [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-iowa-us-house-3.html)[[^]](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/iowa-us-house-district-3-results).** This outcome highlights the competitive nature of the district, which has a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+2 ahead of 2026, indicating it is 2 points more Republican than the national average in 2024 and 2020 presidential elections [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026).

**Key upcoming dates for the 2026 election cycle include the candidate filing period from February 23 to March 13, 2026 (5:00 p.m.** deadline) [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/primary-election). The primary election is scheduled for June 2, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483096)[[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/three-year-election-calendar)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026), followed by the general election on November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://sos.iowa.gov/three-year-election-calendar)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa%27s_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Despite the district's slight Republican lean and the incumbent's 2024 victory, a Polymarket page published December 16, 2025, shows that trader consensus implied **probability** favors Democrats at approximately **53%** over Republicans at approximately **30%** for the "IA-03 House Election Winner" [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/ia-03-house-election-winner). This indicates a notable shift in prediction **market** sentiment towards Democrats.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 2024 general election for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District was closely contested, with incumbent Zach Nunn (R) winning **51.8%** of the vote against Lanon Baccam (D)'s **47.9%**, a margin of 3.9 percentage points [^] [^] [^] .
- This outcome highlights the competitive nature of the district, which has a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+2 ahead of 2026, indicating it is 2 points more Republican than the national average in 2024 and 2020 presidential elections [^] .
- Key upcoming dates for the 2026 election cycle include the candidate filing period from February 23 to March 13, 2026 (5:00 p.m.
- Deadline) [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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