# Idaho Governor winner?

In 2026

Updated: May 10, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: US Elections
Governor

HTML: /markets/elections/us-elections/idaho-governor-winner/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that the Republican party is most likely to win the Idaho Governor election, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Historical precedent strongly favors Republican gubernatorial control since 1995.** - Republicans hold a significant voter registration advantage, nearly **59%** statewide.
- Incumbent Governor Brad Little substantially out-fundraised his Democratic challenger.
- Experts consistently forecast a "Solid Republican" outcome for the election.
- A crowded Republican primary may disrupt Governor Little's nomination path.
- No historical precedent supports a third-party gubernatorial win in Idaho.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **3.1%** for 'Other Party' versus 5c **market** price implies a 19.2x payout multiple if correct.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republican party | 93.0% | 96.9% | Overwhelming historical precedent since 1995 and a significant Republican voter registration advantage are key factors. |
| Democratic party | 5.2% | 3.1% | The Democratic Party has not won an Idaho gubernatorial election since 1990. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Republican party | 93.0% | 96.9% |
| Democratic party | 5.2% | 3.1% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market, which tracks the probability of the Democratic party winning the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election, exhibits a complete lack of price movement. The chart shows a static, sideways trend, with the price holding steady at 5.2% since the market's inception. There have been no price spikes, drops, or any volatility whatsoever. The market's price has not reacted to any news or developments, including the emergence of several candidates for the Democratic primary nomination. The price of 5.2% serves as the only data point, making it impossible to identify any traditional support or resistance levels as it has never been tested by market activity.

The most significant technical indicator for this market is the trading volume, which stands at zero contracts traded. This complete absence of activity suggests a profound lack of market engagement and conviction. Traders have not taken any positions, indicating that the current low probability is not being challenged. The static price and zero volume combine to paint a clear picture of market sentiment. The market consensus is that a Democratic victory is a very low-probability event, reflecting Idaho's political landscape where an incumbent Republican is running. The lack of any trading suggests traders see little opportunity or reason to bet for or against this established outlook at the current price.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if a Republican party representative is inaugurated as the Governor of Idaho following the 2026 election; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified from US State Governments (usa.gov/state-governments). Trading opens on January 26, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST and closes upon the first person being sworn in as governor after the 2026 election, or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT, with payout projected one minute after closing. Insider trading by various specific groups, including public office holders and campaign staff, is prohibited.

## Market Discussion

Incumbent Governor Brad Little is running for re-election in the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, in what is considered a solidly Republican state [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Idaho_gubernatorial_election). Governor Little, a mainstream conservative, is expected to face his biggest challenge in the Republican primary on May 19, 2026, from other declared candidates on the right [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Idaho_gubernatorial_election).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democratic party | 0.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | $647.85 | $273.85 |
| Republican party | 92.7% | 97.5% | 93% | $1,472 | $1,396 |

## What potential primary challenges could disrupt incumbent Brad Little's path to the Republican nomination by the May 2026 primary?

Primary field size | Eight-way race [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/02/idahos-republican-state-officials-are-all-running-for-re-election-who-are-the-other-candidates/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_gubernatorial_election,_2026) |
Little's fundraising advantage | About 10x larger than next-leading fundraiser [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/news/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/analysis-gop-politics-and-little-have-changed-since-2018-this-election-proves-it/) |
Prediction market expectation | Heavily Republican (implying Little retains control unless significant shock) [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026) |

**Incumbent Brad Little faces a crowded primary but holds key advantages**

Incumbent Brad Little faces a crowded primary but holds key advantages. His path to the Republican nomination could be disrupted by an eight-way primary field, but only if anti-Little voters unify behind a single candidate rather than splitting their support across multiple campaigns [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/02/idahos-republican-state-officials-are-all-running-for-re-election-who-are-the-other-candidates/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_gubernatorial_election,_2026). Little possesses a substantial fundraising advantage, with his campaign funds approximately 10 times larger than the next-leading fundraiser, Mark Fitzpatrick [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/news/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/analysis-gop-politics-and-little-have-changed-since-2018-this-election-proves-it/). To overcome this, any challenger would need an "outlier" shock or a broadly resonating issue to diminish Little's advantages or quickly boost their ability to connect with GOP primary voters [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/news/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/analysis-gop-politics-and-little-have-changed-since-2018-this-election-proves-it/).

Challengers need unifying issues or significant events to disrupt Little. The critiques from Little's challengers vary in ideology and issue, covering topics such as education funding, local control, government transparency, immigration, and marijuana legalization [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/news/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/02/idahos-republican-state-officials-are-all-running-for-re-election-who-are-the-other-candidates/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/analysis-gop-politics-and-little-have-changed-since-2018-this-election-proves-it/). For disruption to occur, a specific issue must resonate broadly with a plurality of Republican primary voters, or a unifying narrative, such as "insider/RINO" or "outsider/change," would be needed to consolidate support into a single viable lane [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/news/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/02/idahos-republican-state-officials-are-all-running-for-re-election-who-are-the-other-candidates/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/analysis-gop-politics-and-little-have-changed-since-2018-this-election-proves-it/). Prediction markets currently indicate an expectation for Little to retain control unless a "significant shock" like a scandal or sudden credibility collapse occurs [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026). Visible forms of primary disruption include outsider-style bids based on local grievances, such as Ron James's argument that Little's actions on HB 583 harmed county revenue by limiting short-term rental taxation authority; such attacks could shift vote concentration if they resonate with GOP base voters [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/news/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/).

## What do historical election results and voter registration data reveal about the Republican Party's structural advantages in Idaho's 2026 gubernatorial race?

Republican Control Period | From 1995 onward [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Party_control_of_Idaho_state_government)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Idaho) |
Registered Republicans | Approximately 59% (early 2026) [[^]](https://www.thefutureparty.org/signal/idaho-closed-primary-problem)[[^]](https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/id) |
2026 Republican Victory Probability | 93.6% [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026) |

**Republican control of Idaho's governorship has been consistent since 1995**

Republican control of Idaho's governorship has been consistent since 1995. The state's gubernatorial office has been held by the Republican Party without interruption from 1995 through the current 2026 cycle [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Party_control_of_Idaho_state_government)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Idaho). This enduring Republican dominance is reinforced by current voter registration figures, which show a significant partisan lean. As of early 2026, Idaho has approximately 1,021,711 registered voters, with Republicans comprising about **59%**, Democrats **13%**, and unaffiliated voters **27%** [[^]](https://www.thefutureparty.org/signal/idaho-closed-primary-problem)[[^]](https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/id). This substantial Republican majority among registered voters provides a strong structural advantage in statewide plurality contests such as the gubernatorial race [[^]](https://www.thefutureparty.org/signal/idaho-closed-primary-problem)[[^]](https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/id).

Historical election results and prediction markets forecast a Republican win. Data from Ballotpedia indicates that Republican candidates have historically achieved an average vote-share of approximately **57.1%** in statewide contests [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(May_19_Republican_primary)). This strong historical performance is further supported by current prediction markets for the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial race. One **market** prices a Republican victory at **93.6%** [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026), while another projects it around **95%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026). The consistent trends observed in both historical outcomes and current **market** predictions firmly establish a high **probability** for the Republican Party to win the 2026 gubernatorial contest.

## How do the campaign fundraising totals of Governor Brad Little and leading Democratic challenger Terri Pickens compare as of the latest filing deadline?

Brad Little Total Raised | $1.5 million (February 24, 2026) [[^]](https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/idaho-governor-announces-bid-for-a-third-term-as-state-leader/277-0d9022d1-8685-4827-a78c-2c62e6d8a40e) |
Terri Pickens Total Raised | $68,251 (February 18, 2026) [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/where-things-stand-before-filing-week/) |
Brad Little Average Donation | $814 (January 20, 2026) [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/election-fundraising-surges-annual-campaign-reports-show/) |

**Governor Brad Little's campaign significantly out-raised his Democratic challenger for 2026**

Governor Brad Little's campaign significantly out-raised his Democratic challenger for 2026. Governor Brad Little's re-election campaign for a third term has notably out-raised his Democratic challenger, Terri Pickens, for the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election. As of February 24, 2026, Governor Little had amassed **$1.5** million, indicating a significant increase from the nearly **$1.3** million reported on January 20, 2026 [[^]](https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/idaho-governor-announces-bid-for-a-third-term-as-state-leader/277-0d9022d1-8685-4827-a78c-2c62e6d8a40e)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/election-fundraising-surges-annual-campaign-reports-show/). His campaign demonstrated broad financial support, reporting donations from all 44 counties in Idaho [[^]](https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/idaho-governor-announces-bid-for-a-third-term-as-state-leader/277-0d9022d1-8685-4827-a78c-2c62e6d8a40e), with an average donation amount of **$814** [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/election-fundraising-surges-annual-campaign-reports-show/).

Terri Pickens' campaign lags significantly in fundraising totals. In comparison, Terri Pickens' campaign reported raising **$68,251** by February 18, 2026, an increase from **$54,484** as of January 20, 2026 [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/where-things-stand-before-filing-week/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/election-fundraising-surges-annual-campaign-reports-show/). The financial disclosures also highlight a substantial difference in donation patterns, as Pickens' campaign averaged **$92** per donation, considerably less than Governor Little's average [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/election-fundraising-surges-annual-campaign-reports-show/). Both candidates are preparing for the 2026 election cycle, with primary elections scheduled for May 19, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026. Detailed campaign finance information for Idaho candidates is publicly available through the Idaho Secretary of State's Sunshine Campaign Finance Portal [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/where-things-stand-before-filing-week/)[[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/02/candidate-filing-period-for-federal-state-and-judicial-political-offices-is-now-open/)[[^]](https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/politics-government/2026-03-02/idaho-election-republican-governor-secretary-state)[[^]](https://sos.idaho.gov/elections-division/campaign-finance-data/)[[^]](https://voteidaho.gov/campaign-finance-portal/).

## What public polling data is available for the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial primaries, and what is the historical accuracy of pollsters in the state?

2026 Idaho Primary Date | May 19, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/governor/race/479496)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(May_19_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_gubernatorial_election,_2026) |
Republican Win Probability (2026 Governor) | 95% implied probability [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026) |
2022 Idaho Poll Accuracy | Very accurate (Idaho Dispatch) [[^]](https://idahodispatch.com/idaho-dispatch-to-release-prop-1-poll-results-next-week/) |

**Public polling for 2026 Idaho gubernatorial primaries remains unavailable**

Public polling for 2026 Idaho gubernatorial primaries remains unavailable. The Idaho governor primaries are scheduled to occur on May 19, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/governor/race/479496)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(May_19_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_gubernatorial_election,_2026).

Prediction markets suggest a high likelihood of Republican victory in 2026. Current pricing indicates a strong **probability** for a Republican winning the Idaho Governor position. Lines.com reports a **95%** implied **probability** for a Republican victory, with the contract resolving on November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026). Additionally, a Kalshi **market** is set to resolve based on which party's candidate is inaugurated as governor following the 2026 election [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartyid/idaho-governor/govpartyid-26).

Idaho Dispatch reported its 2022 primary poll was accurate. Regarding historical accuracy, Idaho Dispatch stated that its 2022 Zoldak Research-based poll results were "very accurate" [[^]](https://idahodispatch.com/idaho-dispatch-to-release-prop-1-poll-results-next-week/). This 2022 poll for the Idaho Republican governor primary sampled 549 likely Republican primary voters between April 9–12, 2022, and had a reported margin of error of approximately +/-**4%** [[^]](https://idahodispatch.com/2022poll/).

## Beyond the primary, what state-level issues or national trends could significantly impact the Republican margin of victory in the November 2026 general election?

Idahoans expect economy to worsen | 42% (2026 Idaho Public Policy Survey) [[^]](https://www.boisestate.edu/news/2026/01/23/latest-idaho-public-policy-survey-examines-citizens-attitudes-about-the-economy-education-housing/) |
Housing affordability top priority | 39% (2026 Idaho Public Policy Survey) [[^]](https://www.boisestate.edu/news/2026/01/23/latest-idaho-public-policy-survey-examines-citizens-attitudes-about-the-economy-education-housing/) |
ICE presence harms agriculture | 53% (2026 survey) [[^]](https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article314429894.html) |

**Idaho's state-level issues present varied challenges for Republican margins**

Idaho's state-level issues present varied challenges for Republican margins. Economic pessimism is notable, with **42%** of Idahoans expecting the state economy to worsen, and **39%** identify housing affordability as the top state-budget priority [[^]](https://www.boisestate.edu/news/2026/01/23/latest-idaho-public-policy-survey-examines-citizens-attitudes-about-the-economy-education-housing/). These dynamics might reduce the Republican margin if the incumbent governor is perceived as responsible for cost-of-living pressures [[^]](https://www.boisestate.edu/news/2026/01/23/latest-idaho-public-policy-survey-examines-citizens-attitudes-about-the-economy-education-housing/). Immigration enforcement is another key issue; **53%** of Idahoans believe increased ICE presence would harm Idaho agriculture [[^]](https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article314429894.html)[[^]](https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/04/08/immigration-bills-caused-big-stir-this-year-but-none-advanced-in-idaho-legislature/), which could either intensify GOP unity or create intra-Republican friction. Additionally, housing supply policies, including those expanding accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and "starter homes," could either improve Republican positioning or erode margins if perceived as insufficient [[^]](https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article315270215.html).

GOP primary challengers could complicate general election Republican support. The Republican primary landscape features challengers who emphasize issues such as education funding, local control, immigration, and marijuana legalization [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/news/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.lmtribune.com/northwest/little-fends-off-hard-liners-by-moving-their-way-aefaf7c9). The presence of these contested nominations or the potential for protest votes in the general election can directly affect the overall Republican vote share [[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/news/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.lmtribune.com/northwest/little-fends-off-hard-liners-by-moving-their-way-aefaf7c9).

National trends are unlikely to flip Idaho's solidly Republican governor's race. A national Republican 'collapse' scenario, potentially tied to federal policy or economic conditions, is identified as a macro shock that could influence Idaho's governor-**market** outcomes, though the state's deep-red lean constrains any significant downside [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026). Multiple 2026 midterm outlook analyses indicate that Democrats are likely to gain House seats and achieve some form of Democratic advantage in the 2026 elections nationally [[^]](https://www.economicmemos.com/p/the-2026-midterm-outlook-structural)[[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/it-dont-mean-a-thing-if-it-aint-got-that-swing-the-outlook-for-electoral-accountability-in-2026/)[[^]](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/just-how-badly-could-republicans-lose-the-midterms.html). However, due to high polarization and a limited number of competitive contests, any national headwind would more likely narrow Republican margins in Idaho than cause the governor's vote to flip [[^]](https://www.economicmemos.com/p/the-2026-midterm-outlook-structural)[[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/it-dont-mean-a-thing-if-it-aint-got-that-swing-the-outlook-for-electoral-accountability-in-2026/)[[^]](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/just-how-badly-could-republicans-lose-the-midterms.html).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Market contracts for the "Idaho Governor winner" as of late April 2026 indicate Republicans are priced at approximately $0.94–$0.95, implying a 93.6–95% probability, while Democrats are around ~$0.05–$0.06, or 5–6% probability [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026)[[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026).** The **market** is set to resolve on November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026)[[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026). The Idaho governor primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Idaho_gubernatorial_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Governor_of_Idaho)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Idaho_gubernatorial_election). Idaho is aware of prediction markets, which could influence election-related betting narratives [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/ballot-beat/prediction-markets-blur-the-line-between-gambling-and-elections-in-idaho/).

**A potential near-term bullish driver is Governor Brad Little, who launched and continued his 2026 re-election bid [[^]](https://idahonews.com/news/local/idaho-gov-brad-little-files-for-re-election-will-face-gop-primary-may-19).** He is expected to be on the May 19 GOP primary ballot, an event that markets appear to treat as sustaining Republican control [[^]](https://idahonews.com/news/local/idaho-gov-brad-little-files-for-re-election-will-face-gop-primary-may-19)[[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026).

**Conversely, a potential near-term bearish driver involves reports of a crowded field of GOP challengers against Governor Little [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/analysis-gop-politics-and-little-have-changed-since-2018-this-election-proves-it/)[[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026).** Sources suggest that a divisive or weak general-election nominee, or a scandal, could theoretically shift prediction-**market** odds away from the current Republican-heavy pricing [[^]](https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/analysis-gop-politics-and-little-have-changed-since-2018-this-election-proves-it/)[[^]](https://www.eastidahonews.com/2026/05/gop-challengers-take-aim-at-little-in-crowded-primary/)[[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/idaho-governor-winner-2026)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/idaho-governor-winner-2026).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- **Market** contracts for the "Idaho Governor winner" as of late April 2026 indicate Republicans are priced at approximately **$0.94**–**$0.95**, implying a 93.6–**95%** **probability**, while Democrats are around ~**$0.05**–**$0.06**, or 5–**6%** **probability** [^] [^] [^] .
- The **market** is set to resolve on November 3, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- The Idaho governor primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Idaho is aware of prediction markets, which could influence election-related betting narratives [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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