# Georgia's 13th District margin of victory

Georgia's 13th District

Updated: May 8, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: US Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/us-elections/georgia-s-13th-district-margin-of-victory/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Democrats are most likely to win Georgia's 13th District by 34 or more points, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - District's D+21 PVI and 2024 Democratic margin suggest a large 2026 victory.** - Republican candidates currently lack significant campaign funding, aiding Democrats.
- David Scott's April 22, 2026 death triggered a new House race.
- Jasmine Clark appears to be the likely Democratic nominee for the seat.
- July 28, 2026 special election results are not yet available.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 81c, the **market** prices 2.4 points higher than the **78.6%** **model** estimate, suggesting overvaluation in this Safe Democratic district.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 37+ pts | 78.0% | 75.4% | Strong Democratic lean (D+21 PVI) and 2024's 43.6-point margin indicate a large Democratic victory. |
| Democrats, 34+ pts | 81.0% | 78.6% | Strong Democratic lean (D+21 PVI) and 2024's 43.6-point margin indicate a large Democratic victory. |
| Democrats, 58+ pts | 25.0% | 23.0% | Strong Democratic lean (D+21 PVI) and 2024's 43.6-point margin indicate a large Democratic victory. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 37+ pts | 78.0% | 75.4% |
| Democrats, 34+ pts | 81.0% | 78.6% |
| Democrats, 58+ pts | 25.0% | 23.0% |
| Democrats, 55+ pts | 24.0% | 25.0% |
| Democrats, 52+ pts | 36.0% | 27.0% |
| Democrats, 40+ pts | 0.0% | 35.0% |
| Democrats, 43+ pts | 0.0% | 33.0% |
| Democrats, 46+ pts | 0.0% | 31.0% |
| Democrats, 49+ pts | 0.0% | 29.0% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price chart for this market is characterized by a powerful and abrupt upward trend. The market began with the YES probability priced at a low of 2.0% on May 05. It then experienced a massive spike over the next two days, reaching 80.0% and subsequently settling near its current price of 81.0%. This movement indicates a sudden and decisive repricing of the contract, shifting it from being viewed as a low-probability event to one the market sees as highly likely. The price action is almost entirely defined by this initial, sharp re-evaluation rather than a gradual climb.

The context provided notes that research found no specific news catalyst or identifiable driver for the significant price increase that occurred early in the market's history. The jump from 2% to the 80% range appears to be a rapid market correction to align with the district's fundamental political leanings. Total volume is moderate at 722 contracts, but the price spike itself occurred on what the sample data reports as zero volume, suggesting the shift may have been triggered by large orders that were filled instantly. The price has since established a stable new range around 81.0%, which acts as a strong support level. This price stabilization at a high probability indicates a firm market consensus that the Democratic margin of victory will be substantial, a sentiment that aligns with the district's D+21 PVI and the reported 43.6 point margin from the 2024 election.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 05, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 11.0%

**Outcome:** Democrats, 43+ pts

**What happened:** Research found no identifiable primary driver for the reported 10.0 percentage point spike in the "Democrats, 43+ pts" outcome for Georgia's 13th District on May 05, 2026. Available sources indicate no reported election spike or catalyst occurred on that date [[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/251604)[[^]](https://apps.npr.org/primary-election-results-2026/states/GA.html)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-19/georgia-us-house-13-democratic-primary). The Democratic primary election for the district, which would inform such margin predictions, is not scheduled until May 19, 2026, with results pending thereafter [[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/us-house-district-13-a-suddenly-wide-open-race-in-metro-atlanta/)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/251604)[[^]](https://apps.npr.org/primary-election-results-2026/states/GA.html)[[^]](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-05-19/georgia-us-house-13-democratic-primary). Therefore, based on the provided information, social media was irrelevant as no related activity or news was identified for the purported movement.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Georgia's 13th District by a margin of 46 percentage points or more. It resolves to NO if the Democratic Party wins by less than 46 percentage points, ties, or loses the election. The margin is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the closest opponent's vote percentage, with no rounding, and verified by official election authorities.

The market opened on May 5, 2026, and will close after the election outcome occurs, or by November 3, 2027. It can close early if certified election results are published, with projected payouts occurring 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

In the 2024 election, Georgia's 13th Congressional District saw Democrat David Scott win by a 43.6 percentage point margin, securing 71.8% of the vote [[^]](https://www.indystar.com/elections/results/2024-11-05/race/12238/georgia)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/elections/results/race/2024-11-05-house-GA-12238/). For 2026, prediction markets indicate a high likelihood of a Democratic Party victory in the GA-13 House seat, with one platform showing 94% odds [[^]](http://polymarket.com/event/ga-13-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/ga-13-house-election-winner-democratic-party-polymarket-0xe45a876d7a). Another prediction market offers options for the Democratic margin of victory, including a scenario of 34 or more points [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ga13d).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 34+ pts | 81% | 82% | 81% | $722 | $710 |
| Democrats, 37+ pts | 75% | 76% | 78% | $1,115 | $510 |
| Democrats, 40+ pts | 75% | 76% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Democrats, 43+ pts | 64% | 65% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Democrats, 46+ pts | 53% | 54% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Democrats, 49+ pts | 42% | 43% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Democrats, 52+ pts | 32% | 33% | 36% | $2 | $2 |
| Democrats, 55+ pts | 25% | 26% | 24% | $4 | $4 |
| Democrats, 58+ pts | 25% | 26% | 25% | $15 | $8 |

## How does the profile of the 2026 Democratic nominee compare to former Rep. David Scott's, and how might this shift the 43.6-point margin from 2024?

Democratic Probability (2026) | 94% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ga-13-house-election-winner) |
Jasmine Clark Q1 2026 Fundraising | Over $1 million [[^]](https://lmsh7.ggff.net/event/ga-13-democratic-primary-winner)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/the-money-race-house-incumbents-lead-in-georgia-with-one-exception/) |
Cook PVI | D+17 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) |

**Jasmine Clark is the likely Democratic nominee for the special election**

Jasmine Clark is the likely Democratic nominee for the special election. A 43-year-old current House Representative for District 108 since 2019 and an Emory University PhD holder, she is the anticipated Democratic nominee for the 2026 special election [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jasmine_Clark). She leads the primary **market** with a **78%** **probability** and has demonstrated strong financial backing, having raised over **$1** million in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://lmsh7.ggff.net/event/ga-13-democratic-primary-winner)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/the-money-race-house-incumbents-lead-in-georgia-with-one-exception/). The primary for this special election is scheduled for May 19, with the potential general election date set for July 28 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district_special_election).

The district is a reliably Democratic seat with high win **probability**. Georgia's 13th Congressional District maintains its status as a Solid/Safe Democratic seat for the 2026 general election, underscored by a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+17 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). This strong Democratic lean is further supported by **market** predictions, with a **94%** **probability** indicated for the Democratic Party winning the 2026 GA-13 House election [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ga-13-house-election-winner).

Impact on the 2024 margin is uncertain, but success expected. While the specific impact of the nominee's profile shift on the 43.6-point margin from the 2024 election remains unspecified [[^]](https://www.indystar.com/elections/results/2024-11-05/race/12238/georgia)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024), the district's consistent and strong Democratic lean suggests a continuation of the party's success in the upcoming election.

## What do the results of the July 28, 2026 special election signal for the Democratic margin of victory in the November 3 general election?

GA-13 District Rating | Solid Democratic (Cook Political Report) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district_special_election)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) |
2024 Democratic Margin of Victory | 43.6 points (David Scott D) [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District) |
2026 Democratic Win Probability | 94% (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ga-13-house-election-winner) |

**The special election results are not yet available**

The special election results are not yet available. The death of David Scott (D) on April 22, 2026, initiated a special election for Georgia's 13th District, scheduled for July 28, 2026. This nonpartisan election, which may include a runoff, features candidates such as Democrats Emanuel Jones and Marcye Scott [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district_special_election). Given that the district is consistently rated as Solid Democratic by the Cook Political Report, the results of this special election, once available, will inform further analysis [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district_special_election)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). However, as of now, the outcomes are not public, meaning there are no direct implications for the Democratic margin of victory in the November 3, 2026, general election [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district_special_election).

Democrats are strongly favored in the November general election. Despite the ongoing special election, the Democratic Party's prospects for the November 3, 2026, general election in GA-13 remain robust. Polymarket indicates a **94%** **probability** of a Democratic victory in the district [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ga-13-house-election-winner). This strong outlook is consistent with historical performance; in the 2024 general election, David Scott (D) secured a substantial 43.6-point margin, capturing **71.8%** of the vote against Jonathan Chavez (R) [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District). A Kalshi **market** is available to predict the precise margin of victory for the upcoming general election [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ga13d).

## What do historical results from comparable open-seat U.S. House elections in 'Safe Democratic' districts suggest for a baseline margin of victory in GA-13?

GA-13 Cook PVI | D+21 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District) |
GA-13 2002 Open-Seat Margin | 19.3-point Democratic victory [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district) |
Competitive Open Races D+20+ PVI | None found recently [[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/a-flood-of-open-house-seats-but-not-competitive-open-seats/)[[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/candidate-recruitment-2026/) |

**Georgia's 13th District is a strongly Democratic stronghold**

Georgia's 13th District is a strongly Democratic stronghold. This congressional district (GA-13) is classified as a Safe Democratic district, holding a D+21 Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) based on 2020 and 2024 presidential election results, which places it as the 50th most Democratic district nationally [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District). Recent election margins in GA-13 highlight its strong Democratic lean, including an estimated 72-28 split in 2024, a 63.6-point Democratic margin in 2022, and a 71.5-point Democratic margin in 2020 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district).

The 2002 open-seat election in GA-13 showed a substantial Democratic win. This contest, which occurred when the district was newly established, represents the closest historical comparison for an open-seat election in GA-13. In that race, the Democratic candidate secured **59.6%** of the vote against the Republican's **40.4%**, resulting in a 19.3-point Democratic margin of victory [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district). This outcome aligns with the broader trend indicating that open seats in Safe Democratic districts typically lead to significant Democratic wins [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/here-are-the-final-results-in-the-nj-11-special-election/).

Open-seat elections in very safe Democratic districts are rarely competitive. Further research into comparable open-seat U.S. House elections in districts with a D+20 or higher PVI has identified no recent instances of competitive races [[^]](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/a-flood-of-open-house-seats-but-not-competitive-open-seats/)[[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/candidate-recruitment-2026/). Even in a district considered less safe, such as NJ-11, a special open-seat election still resulted in a substantial 21-point Democratic victory [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/here-are-the-final-results-in-the-nj-11-special-election/).

## What public polling data is available for the GA-13 special or general election for the period between the May 2026 primary and the November 2026 election?

Special Election Call Date | May 1, 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia's_13th_congressional_district_special_election)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district_special_election)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/05/brian-kemp-sets-date-for-special-election-in-david-scotts-district/) |
Special Election Date | July 28, 2026 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia's_13th_congressional_district_special_election)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district_special_election)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/05/brian-kemp-sets-date-for-special-election-in-david-scotts-district/) |
Primary Election Date | May 19, 2026 [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(May_19_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://atlpresscollective.com/2026/04/21/georgia-13th-district/) |

**A special election is set for Georgia's 13th Congressional District**

A special election is set for Georgia's 13th Congressional District. This election was announced on May 1, 2026, following the passing of Representative David Scott (D) on April 22, 2026. The special election is scheduled for July 28, 2026, and will be nonpartisan, with the possibility of a runoff vote [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia's_13th_congressional_district_special_election)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia%27s_13th_congressional_district_special_election)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/05/brian-kemp-sets-date-for-special-election-in-david-scotts-district/).

Regular election primaries are scheduled with key candidates. Both the Democratic and Republican primaries for the general election are slated for May 19, 2026. Notable candidates in the Democratic primary include Jasmine Clark, Everton Blair Jr., and Emanuel Jones. Jonathan Chavez is one of the candidates participating in the Republican primary [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(May_19_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://atlpresscollective.com/2026/04/21/georgia-13th-district/).

No recent public polling data exists for GA-13 elections. As of the current research, no public polling data specifically dated after May 19, 2026, has been identified for either the special or general election in Georgia's 13th Congressional District. Public polling efforts have primarily focused on primary elections and other statewide contests, such as the U.S. Senate race [[^]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/georgia-us-house-13-polls-2026.html)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/05/georgia-2026-what-the-polls-say-about-the-us-senate-race/)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/05/ajc-poll-democrats-high-on-ossoff-heading-into-tough-election/)[[^]](https://click-em.ajc.com/s/c/MluR9wUtLDB-v5krEggZMPwcKZ_TDQbKezK6jVM1qmTJ9X37mmheA1a250eNvVrv55cBeNMyJ2S78mVRcrGPel1a-8l_m1sVjuOY0nrf-JidiLdg3oFfpQOrKI0N4UMHwJ7vKOQ9HWdBfW_nont1Q7Scv3XEucfolnwT7in3g3hr3lHubeoXEnIeO5jSElaFHti-4DQ97tKF0Td13ETTQ5wJAPY_6oUZWxEZFxLNytM0dRagLKmbRpvf9f5zwB67gHFgNb3timQLaL9sirDvhE0UK8K4VqtqX1mR-EuuTAPcPyzAecj-whbiG7VuxgHFbjvKR6UwlKrSl7JBe8FpOnvirrNkdFT15oAuIE2t72iV2ShwfQsAQEPl2paOVMhRiV3Jex30mIhM5h2pYg5-Gx6czjnSFKCON1-gFq4YP1hjpVoKVbS6-QWpsW5T6xqbMS55m__bdNoqG_lo4Ut7kck9i7LTi27snUE_TO0R0wvpxZRV2RU/cim_167AclpvUMpTJsZ_eLr6eYRIOtZG/18)[[^]](http://realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/democratic-primary/2026/georgia).

## How could the profile and campaign strength of the 2026 Republican nominee for GA-13 affect the final Democratic margin of victory?

Cook PVI | D+21 (50th most Democratic district) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District) |
2024 Democratic Margin of Victory | 43.6% [[^]](https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/elections/results/race/2024-11-05-house-GA-12238/) |
Polymarket Democratic Win Probability | 94% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ga-13-house-election-winner) |

**GA-13 is a reliably Democratic district, strongly favoring a Democratic victory**

GA-13 is a reliably Democratic district, strongly favoring a Democratic victory. This district holds a D+21 Cook PVI, ranking it as the 50th most Democratic district in the nation [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District). In the 2024 election cycle, the Democratic candidate secured a substantial **43.6%** margin of victory [[^]](https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/elections/results/race/2024-11-05-house-GA-12238/). Although the incumbent's passing in April 2026 created an open seat and a crowded Democratic primary where Jasmine Clark is favored, Polymarket forecasts a **94%** **probability** of a Democratic win for the district in 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ga-13-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://atlpresscollective.com/2026/04/21/georgia-13th-district/)[[^]](https://lmsh7.ggff.net/event/ga-13-democratic-primary-winner).

Republican candidates for GA-13 currently show no significant campaign strength. The 2026 Republican primary includes Jonathan Chavez, a previous nominee and likely frontrunner, alongside Peter Bourne and Simeon Nunnally [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(May_19_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://www.wabe.org/2026georgiacandidates/). However, Federal Election Commission (FEC) data indicates that all listed Republican candidates have reported **$0** in both contributions and expenditures [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Bourne)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Simeon_Nunnally). This present lack of financial campaigning, combined with the district's strong Democratic lean, suggests that the Republican nominee's profile or campaign strength is unlikely to significantly reduce the anticipated large Democratic margin of victory in this D+21 district [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Bourne)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Simeon_Nunnally).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The sudden death of David Scott on April 22, 2026, after he had filed for re-election, has triggered a new race for the Georgia’s 13th Congressional District House seat [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/david-scotts-death-triggers-new-race-for-his-deep-blue-house-seat/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/04/28/david-scotts-death-leaves-georgias-13th-congressional-district-vacant/).** The district is strongly Democratic, identified as the 50th most Democratic nationally, with CM Predictions indicating a Solid D and **100%** Democratic **probability** [[^]](https://www.cmelectionpredictions.com/house/district/GA-13)[[^]](https://atlpresscollective.com/2026/04/21/georgia-13th-district/). Prediction markets reflect this lean, with Polymarket showing Democrats at **94%** and Republicans at **4%** for the GA-13 House Winner as of May 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/ga-13-house-election-winner). Kalshi markets also predict a Democratic margin of victory of 34+ points and a Democratic House winner [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ga13d)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhouserace/house-race-winner/kxhouserace-ga13-26), consistent with a past median margin of victory of 43.4 points [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/04/david-scotts-death-triggers-new-race-for-his-deep-blue-house-seat/)[[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/04/28/david-scotts-death-leaves-georgias-13th-congressional-district-vacant/).

**The Democratic primary is a key event in this race, with Polymarket indicating Jasmine Clark at 78% and Everton Blair Jr.** at **17%** in the GA-13 Democratic Primary [[^]](https://lmsh7.ggff.net/event/ga-13-democratic-primary-winner). Primary elections are scheduled for May 19 and June 16, 2026, followed by a special election on July 28, and the general election on November 3 [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2026/05/01/metro-atlantas-13th-district-voters-will-be-polls-lot-2026/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). A potential redistricting catalyst post-SCOTUS VRA ruling was noted, though Governor Kemp has deferred action on this [[^]](https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2026/05/01/metro-atlantas-13th-district-voters-will-be-polls-lot-2026/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The sudden death of David Scott on April 22, 2026, after he had filed for re-election, has triggered a new race for the Georgia’s 13th Congressional District House seat [^] [^] [^] .
- The district is strongly Democratic, identified as the 50th most Democratic nationally, with CM Predictions indicating a Solid D and **100%** Democratic **probability** [^] [^] .
- Prediction markets reflect this lean, with Polymarket showing Democrats at **94%** and Republicans at **4%** for the GA-13 House Winner as of May 2026 [^] .
- Kalshi markets also predict a Democratic margin of victory of 34+ points and a Democratic House winner [^] [^] , consistent with a past median margin of victory of 43.4 points [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

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Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

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