# Florida's 13th District margin of victory Florida's 13th District Updated: May 8, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: US Elections HTML: /markets/elections/us-elections/florida-s-13th-district-margin-of-victory/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Democrats to win Florida's 13th District by 2 or more points, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Midterm effect likely reduces the Republican margin compared to 2024.** - District's Republican lean and past wins make a **7%**+ margin highly probable. - Exceeding the 2024 Republican margin of **9.6%** faces midterm headwinds. - Republicans currently hold a voter registration advantage in Pinellas County. - Two Democratic challengers are reported to lead early fundraising for 2026. - Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is positioned for the 2026 midterm campaign. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** At 24c, the **market** implies a 4.2x payout multiple based on the **16.2%** **model**, despite the district's strong Republican lean. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Democrats, 2+ pts | 24.0% | 16.2% | Strong Republican lean and recent Republican wins make a Democratic victory by 2+ points unlikely. | | Democrats, 5+ pts | 7.3% | 4.9% | A Republican win by at least 7 percentage points is highly probable given the district's strong lean. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Democrats, 2+ pts | 24.0% | 16.2% | | Democrats, 5+ pts | 7.3% | 4.9% | - Expiration: November 3, 2027 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics The price chart for this market shows a significant upward trend, beginning at a 2.0% probability and rising to its current level of 24.0%. The most dramatic movement occurred on May 06, 2026, when the price appears to have spiked by 13.0 percentage points, jumping from 10.0% to 23.0%. However, the provided context indicates this specific event and date are unverified, noting that the election for that year had not yet occurred. This suggests the sharp price increase may be attributable to an anomaly or a market overreaction to unconfirmed information rather than a verified fundamental shift in the race's outlook. Following this spike, the price has consolidated slightly higher at 24.0%. The market's total volume is relatively light at 2,621 contracts traded over 67 data points. Notably, the sample data shows zero volume during the period of the major price spike, which indicates the move was not supported by significant trading activity. This lack of volume suggests low market conviction behind the new price level. The chart has established a clear price floor at 2.0% and a current ceiling, or resistance level, at the 24.0% high. Overall, while the upward trend reflects a growing sentiment that the "YES" outcome is more likely than initially perceived, the low-volume nature of the key price spike indicates that this sentiment may not be strongly held or broadly shared among market participants. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 May 06, 2026: 13.0pp spike Price increased from 10.0% to 23.0% **Outcome:** Democrats, 2+ pts **What happened:** The reported 13.0 percentage point spike for Democrats in Florida's 13th District on May 6, 2026, cannot be verified by the provided sources, which indicate no such movement occurred and that the 2026 election has not yet taken place [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/FL/13/2026/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida's_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). On May 6, 2026, Leela Gray did announce her continued bid for CD-13 after Governor DeSantis signed a new congressional map, which her campaign argues aims to gerrymander the district [[^]](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/795068-redistricting-shuffle-leela-gray-doubles-down-on-cd-13-bid/). While this redistricting news could influence perceptions of the district's competitiveness, there is no evidence linking it to the specified price spike. Consequently, social media cannot be assessed as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or noise for an unverified market movement. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves to "Yes" if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 13th District by 2 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The margin of victory is calculated as the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus that of the candidate immediately behind them, with no rounding, and verified by an official election authority. Trading opened on May 5, 2026; the market will close early upon certified election results or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Prediction markets currently indicate a strong likelihood for the Republican Party to win Florida's 13th Congressional District in the 2026 House race, with Polymarket showing them at 68% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner). Other markets provide granular contracts on specific margins of victory, such as a Republican win by 7 percentage points or more, or a Democratic win by 2+ points [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kxmidtermmov-fl13r). For context, the incumbent Anna Paulina Luna (R) won the district's 2024 general election on November 5, 2024 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024). ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Democrats, 2+ pts | 24% | 25% | 24% | $2,621 | $1,536 | | Democrats, 5+ pts | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | $1,221 | $532 | ## Who are the potential Democratic challengers to Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in 2026, and what do their early fundraising filings reveal? Leela J. Gray Q1 2026 Receipts | $565K [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Earle_Ford)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13239/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)) | Earle Ford Oct 2025-Mar 2026 Receipts | $593K [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Earle_Ford)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13239/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)) | Anna Paulina Luna Cash on Hand | $1.38M [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13) | **Two Democratic challengers lead early fundraising efforts for 2026** Two Democratic challengers lead early fundraising efforts for 2026. Leela J. Gray, a retired Brigadier General, and Earle Ford, an Army veteran and attorney, appear to be the strongest Democratic contenders against Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida's 13th Congressional District for the 2026 election, according to initial fundraising reports. Gray recorded **$565,000** in receipts for the first quarter of 2026, while Ford reported **$593,000** in receipts collected between October 2025 and March 2026 [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Earle_Ford)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13239/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)). Leela Gray demonstrates strong initial financial backing with substantial cash on hand. Gray, who filed her candidacy in February 2026, showed a robust financial start with **$500,000** cash on hand, with **95.88%** of her first-quarter 2026 receipts originating from individual contributions [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13312/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)). Ford, who filed earlier in October 2025, reported **100%** of his receipts from individual contributions but held **$44,000** cash on hand [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Earle_Ford)[[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6FL13239/)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)). Another Democratic challenger, Timothy Brandt Robinson, a history teacher, reported approximately **$61,000** in first-quarter 2026 receipts and had **$33,000** cash on hand [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)). Other Democratic candidates, including John Fay, Karla Kemp, and Reggie Paros, reported much lower fundraising totals in 2025 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(August_18_Democratic_primary)). Incumbent Rep. Anna Paulina Luna reported first-quarter 2026 receipts of **$551,000,** placing her quarterly fundraising in a similar range to the top Democratic challengers. However, Luna maintains a significant financial advantage with **$1.38** million cash on hand [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13). The district's Republican lean presents a significant challenge for Democrats. Florida's 13th Congressional District is rated as Likely R with an R+5 PVI, indicating a challenging electoral environment for Democratic contenders [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Despite this, overall fundraising for the 2026 cycle is reportedly higher at this point compared to the 2024 cycle [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/FL/13)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). ## What voter registration and demographic shifts have occurred in Pinellas County since the 2022 redistricting, and do they favor Democrats or Republicans? Registered Republicans (Feb 2026) | 239,810 [[^]](https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/) | Registered Democrats (Feb 2026) | 191,441 [[^]](https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/) | FL-13 Election Winner Prediction (Republican) | 68% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner) | **Republicans currently hold a registration advantage in Pinellas County** Republicans currently hold a registration advantage in Pinellas County. As of February 28, 2026, active voter registration data indicates 239,810 registered Republicans compared to 191,441 Democrats [[^]](https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/). Additionally, 155,069 voters are registered as 'No Party Affiliation' [[^]](https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/). Another analysis of registered voters in Pinellas County shows 266,793 Republicans (**35.5%**) and 247,241 Democrats (**32.9%**) [[^]](https://floridaparcels.com/voter/PIN). Specific voter registration and demographic shifts since the 2022 redistricting are not detailed. The new 13th Congressional District within Pinellas County is designed to include voters from both major parties and those with 'No Party' affiliation, potentially affecting future election turnout [[^]](https://www.votepinellas.gov/DocumentCenter/View/316/November-5-2024---District-Voter-Turnout-Analysis-PDF?bidId=). Despite this, prediction markets for the FL-13 House Election Winner currently show Republicans favored at **68%** against Democrats at **27%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner). ## How do the 2022 and 2024 election results in FL-13 compare in terms of turnout and partisan margins, and what baseline do they set for 2026? 2024 Total Votes FL-13 | 411,593 votes [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2022)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024) | 2024 FL-13 Republican Margin | +9.6% [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024) | 2026 FL-13 Republican Winner Prediction | 68% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner) | **FL-13 saw increased turnout and a larger Republican margin in 2024** FL-13 saw increased turnout and a larger Republican margin in 2024. The 2024 election in Florida's 13th Congressional District (FL-13) experienced significantly higher voter participation compared to 2022. Total votes for the same office reached 411,593 in 2024, representing an approximately **20.5%** increase from the 341,546 votes cast in 2022 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2022)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024). The Republican party also expanded its partisan margin in 2024, securing **54.8%** of the vote against the Democratic party's **45.2%**, which translated to a +9.6 Republican margin. This was an increase from the +8.0 margin observed in 2022 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2022)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2024). These trends establish a strong Republican baseline for the 2026 election. The consistent electoral outcomes observed in 2022 and 2024 firmly establish FL-13 as a Republican-leaning district for the upcoming 2026 House election. **Market** sentiment further supports this expectation; the Kalshi **market** for "Florida's 13th District margin of victory" is trading in a manner indicative of a Republican win [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-fl13d)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kxmidtermmov-fl13r). Similarly, a Polymarket tracking the "FL-13 House Election Winner" currently shows the Republican outcome leading significantly at **68%**, compared to the Democratic outcome at **27%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner). ## How might national political trends, specifically the 'Presidential Midterm Effect,' influence the 2026 outcome in Florida's 13th District? Average House Seat Loss (Midterm) | 27 seats [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/midterm-patterns-history/) | FL-13 2024 GOP Margin | +9.6 points [[^]](https://nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-us-house-district-13-results) | FL-13 2026 Polymarket (GOP) | 68% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner) | **The Presidential Midterm Effect typically weakens the president's party nationally** The Presidential Midterm Effect typically weakens the president's party nationally. Historically, the president's party tends to lose House seats in midterm elections, with an average loss of 27 seats in 17 out of 19 midterms since 1946 [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/midterm-patterns-history/). This consistent pattern suggests a potentially more favorable environment for Democrats in 2026, which could directly influence Florida's 13th District [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/midterm-patterns-history/). While a significant marginal driver for a district's margin of victory, this effect is not considered the sole determinant [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576)[[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/house-2026-florida-competitive/). FL-13 saw a significant Republican victory in 2024. Anna Paulina Luna (R) secured the FL-13 seat with **54.8%** of the vote, defeating Whitney Fox (D) who received **45.2%**, resulting in a +9.6-point margin for the Republican Party [[^]](https://nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-us-house-district-13-results). Should the historical 'midterm curse' manifest in 2026, any national sentiment against the president or incumbents could potentially narrow this margin or even lead to the district flipping [[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/midterm-patterns-history/)[[^]](https://nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/florida-us-house-district-13-results). Despite the GOP win, FL-13 is highly competitive for 2026. Major political handicappers reflect this, with Cook Political Report rating the district as 'Likely R' and USPollingData categorizing it as a 'Toss-up' with a D+1 composite lean [[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/482576)[[^]](https://uspollingdata.com/news/house-2026-florida-competitive/). Polymarket's 'FL-13 House Election Winner' **market** also highlights this uncertainty, showing Republicans with **68%** and Democrats with **27%** odds, indicating an expected GOP hold but acknowledging considerable risk [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner). This **market** sentiment aligns with the idea that national midterm trends could shift the final outcome in FL-13 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner). ## How does Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's legislative and voting record since 2023 position her for the 2026 midterm campaign? Cook PVI Rating (2025) | R+5 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida's_13th_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida%27s_13th_congressional_district)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/custom_entity/482576)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) | Heritage Action Lifetime Score | 98% [[^]](https://thefreedomindex.org/legislator/l000596/votes/report-scorecard-118-2/) | Polymarket 2026 Republican Win Probability | 68% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner) | **Representative Anna Paulina Luna is positioned for the 2026 midterm campaign in Florida's 13th Congressional District, which is rated as Likely Republican** Representative Anna Paulina Luna is positioned for the 2026 midterm campaign in Florida's 13th Congressional District, which is rated as Likely Republican. The district holds an R+5 Cook PVI (2025), indicating a favorable environment for her re-election efforts [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida's_13th_Congressional_District)[[^]](https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida%27s_13th_congressional_district)[[^]](https://www.cookpolitical.com/custom_entity/482576)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). This Republican lean is further supported by Polymarket estimates, placing the Republican win **probability** at **68%** for the 2026 midterm [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner). Luna has demonstrated strong electoral performance in FL-13, securing an 8.1-point victory in 2022 and increasing her lead to 9.6 points in 2024 [[^]](https://www.fspolitics.com/post/2022-florida-13th-congressional-district-election-results)[[^]](https://www.rightdatausa.com/election_results?d=13&s=FL&t=H&y=2024). These results, combined with the district's inherent political alignment, position her advantageously for the upcoming 2026 campaign. Luna's legislative and voting record aligns with conservative principles since 2023. She has actively sponsored legislative efforts such as the Flood Insurance Affordability Act (HR 4686) to address local Pinellas concerns, alongside conservative bills like the Deporting Fraudsters Act [[^]](https://www.billsponsor.com/politicians/8661/anna-paulina-luna)[[^]](https://trackbill.com/bill/us-congress-house-bill-4686-flood-insurance-affordability-act/2439853/). Her voting record consistently reflects strong conservative scores, including a **98%** lifetime rating from Heritage Action and a **94%** score from the Freedom Index for the 118th Congress [[^]](https://thefreedomindex.org/legislator/l000596/votes/report-scorecard-118-2/)[[^]](https://heritageaction.com/scorecard/members/l000596). However, her political stance has drawn criticism, being described as extreme by PoliScore [[^]](https://poliscore.us/2024/legislator/L000596). ## What Could Change the Odds **Upcoming election milestones for Florida's 13th Congressional District in 2026 include the filing deadline on June 12, 2026, the primary on Aug.** 18, 2026, and the general election on Nov. 3, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). **Prediction markets currently indicate the Republican Party as the leading outcome for the FL-13 House Election Winner at 68%, with the Democratic Party at 27% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/fl-13-house-election-winner).** A Kalshi **market**, published 2026-05-05, explicitly references a Republican win by "7 percentage points or more" as a resolution condition for the FL-13 "margin of victory" **market** [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/kxmidtermmov-fl13r). ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** November 03, 2027 - **Closes:** November 03, 2027 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Upcoming election milestones for Florida's 13th Congressional District in 2026 include the filing deadline on June 12, 2026, the primary on Aug. - 18, 2026, and the general election on Nov. - 3, 2026 [^] . - Prediction markets currently indicate the Republican Party as the leading outcome for the FL-13 House Election Winner at **68%**, with the Democratic Party at **27%** [^] . ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/) - [Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/) - [Georgia Democratic Attorney General nominee?](/markets/elections/primaries/georgia-democratic-attorney-general-nominee/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/elections/us-elections/florida-s-13th-district-margin-of-victory If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.