# CA-11 House winner? (Person)

In 2026

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: US Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/us-elections/ca-11-house-winner-person/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Scott Wiener to win the CA-11 House race in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Scott Wiener leads in endorsements and fundraising, securing DCCC support.** - Scott Wiener also leads early polling, despite a lack of statewide consensus.
- Saikat Chakrabarti shows significant mobilization efforts but lacks party endorsements.
- Marie Hurabiell and Marjan Philhour struggle with low polling and endorsements.
- Matt Haney shows no federal campaign finance filings, indicating inactive candidacy.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** prices Scott Wiener at 62c, 2.0pp above the **60%** **model**, despite strong DCCC endorsement and fundraising.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 37.0% | 30.9% | Chakrabarti faces a competitive field for the nomination in this district. |
| Scott Wiener | 62.0% | 60.0% | Senator Wiener is considered the leading candidate with significant established support. |
| Connie Chan | 6.0% | 5.5% | Chan is a contender, but has less established support compared to other candidates. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 37.0% | 30.9% |
| Scott Wiener | 62.0% | 60.0% |
| Connie Chan | 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Marie Hurabiell | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| Matt Haney | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market, which predicts the winner of California's 11th Congressional District in 2026, shows a distinct downward trend. It opened with a high probability of 73.0% for a "YES" outcome, which also serves as a key resistance level. The most significant price action occurred on April 18, 2026, when the price plummeted 16 percentage points from 73.0% to 57.0%. This sharp drop indicates a sudden, impactful event or piece of information that significantly eroded market confidence. Following this drop, the price has found a floor, or support level, in the low 50s, with the overall price range being between 51.0% and 73.0%.

The specific cause for the dramatic drop on April 18 is not apparent from the available context, but its magnitude suggests a major development perceived as detrimental to the "YES" candidate's chances. The market's total traded volume of 1,028 contracts suggests moderate but not exceptionally high trading activity. The price has since stabilized, hovering in the low 60s, currently at 62.0%. This stabilization above the post-drop low suggests that while the initial shock was severe, the market has found a new, lower equilibrium and has not continued to panic-sell.

Overall, market sentiment has shifted significantly since trading began. The initial high confidence has been replaced by a more cautious and uncertain outlook. While the market still favors a "YES" outcome with a 62.0% probability, the sharp decline and failure to recover to previous highs indicate that traders now perceive a much greater risk of a "NO" resolution than they did at the market's inception. The sentiment has moved from strongly bullish to cautiously optimistic, reflecting a permanent repricing of the candidate's prospects.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Saikat Chakrabarti

#### 📉 April 27, 2026: 20.0pp drop

Price decreased from 49.0% to 29.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 17, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 17.0% to 37.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Scott Wiener

#### 📉 April 18, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 73.0% to 57.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Scott Wiener wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, with the outcome verified by the California Secretary of State; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on April 14, 2026, with the election beginning November 3, 2026, and will close and payout approximately 30 minutes after the outcome occurs, or by November 3, 2027, at the latest. Settlement can be accelerated if a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and persons employed by Source Agencies are prohibited from trading.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Connie Chan | 6% | 8% | 6% | $304.65 | $304.65 |
| Matt Haney | 0% | 4% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Marie Hurabiell | 0% | 3% | 5% | $2 | $2 |
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 35% | 37% | 37% | $5,231.96 | $4,439.82 |
| Scott Wiener | 62% | 63% | 62% | $1,328.33 | $1,094.08 |

## Did Scott Wiener secure DCCC endorsement for U.S. House?

Scott Wiener's Weighted Votes | 13,010 [[^]](https://www.sfdems.org/endorsements/june-2-2026-primary-election) |
Marjan Philhour's Weighted Votes | 1,607 [[^]](https://www.sfdems.org/endorsements/june-2-2026-primary-election) |
Wiener's Vote Percentage | 87% (exceeding 60% threshold) [[^]](https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/california-democrats-2026-endorsements-sf-convention/article_813b1441-60cd-4458-8ea4-33d8fe157544.html) |

**State Senator Scott Wiener officially secured the DCCC endorsement for U.S**

State Senator Scott Wiener officially secured the DCCC endorsement for U.S. House. State Senator Scott Wiener has officially secured the endorsement of the San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee (DCCC) for the U.S. House of Representatives, District 11 (CA-11). This endorsement pertains to the primary election scheduled for June 2, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sfdems.org/endorsements/june-2-2026-primary-election). The DCCC formally made this endorsement decision during a committee meeting held on February 25, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sfdems.org/endorsements/june-2-2026-primary-election).

Wiener's substantial vote lead exceeded the endorsement threshold. During the committee's voting process, Scott Wiener garnered a total of 13,010 weighted votes from the DCCC members [[^]](https://www.sfdems.org/endorsements/june-2-2026-primary-election). His primary opponent, Marjan Philhour, received 1,607 weighted votes [[^]](https://www.sfdems.org/endorsements/june-2-2026-primary-election). Wiener's significant lead resulted in **87%** of the total weighted vote, which substantially surpassed the **60%** threshold mandated by the DCCC for an official endorsement [[^]](https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/california-democrats-2026-endorsements-sf-convention/article_813b1441-60cd-4458-8ea4-33d8fe157544.html).

## What are the Latest Federal Campaign Finance Details for Scott Wiener?

Scott Wiener Cash-on-Hand | $1,465,586.20 (as of December 31, 2023) [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00909283/1943724/) |
Scott Wiener Net Cash Increase | $284,904.79 (Q3 to Q4 2023) [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00909283/1924263/) |
Matt Haney Federal Filings | No federal campaign filings found [[^]](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/financials?page=124&receiver%5B%5D=pid-165453&sort_by=amount&sort_order=asc), [[^]](https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/sf-board-of-supervisors-election-spending-reveals-key-races/article_e1accff2-8056-11ef-b7e8-cf572400ca07.html) |

**Scott Wiener's federal campaign reported substantial cash-on-hand at 2023 year-end**

Scott Wiener's federal campaign reported substantial cash-on-hand at 2023 year-end. Scott Wiener for Congress reported a cash-on-hand balance of **$1,465,586.20** as of December 31, 2023, according to its 2023 Year-End report filed on January 30, 2024 [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00909283/1943724/), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00909283/?tab=filings). This balance represents a net increase of **$284,904.79** from the third quarter of 2023, when the committee's cash-on-hand stood at **$1,180,681.41** as of September 30, 2023 [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00909283/1924263/). These disclosures constitute the most recent available federal campaign finance information; however, they are not necessarily the final filings for a future 2026 election cycle [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California).

No federal campaign data or independent expenditures were found for Matt Haney. The provided research does not include any federal campaign committee filings or cash-on-hand data for a "Matt Haney for Congress" campaign [[^]](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/financials?page=124&receiver%5B%5D=pid-165453&sort_by=amount&sort_order=asc), [[^]](https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/sf-board-of-supervisors-election-spending-reveals-key-races/article_e1accff2-8056-11ef-b7e8-cf572400ca07.html). Furthermore, while groups such as the SF Labor Council and Neighbors for a Better San Francisco are active in elections, the available information primarily details their involvement in state and local contests, such as San Francisco Board of Supervisors races [[^]](https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/sf-board-of-supervisors-election-spending-reveals-key-races/article_e1accff2-8056-11ef-b7e8-cf572400ca07.html), [[^]](https://theballotbook.com/campaign_finance/committees/6076). There is no data in the sources detailing federal independent expenditures from these groups specifically supporting or opposing Scott Wiener or Matt Haney in the context of federal campaign finance.

## How Do Canvassing Efforts Compare in Sunset vs. Mission Districts?

Volunteer Canvassing Shifts (Sunset vs. Mission) | No specific comparative data available [[^]](https://www.conniechansf.com/events) |
Doors Knocked (Sunset vs. Mission) | No specific comparative data available [[^]](https://www.conniechansf.com/events) |
Chakrabarti Westside Volunteers (April 2026) | Over 50 volunteers for Mega Canvass [[^]](https://missionlocal.org/2026/04/saikat-chakrabarti-sf-campaign-chinese-canvassers-daniel-lurie-part-2/) |

**Quantitative data for candidate field operations is largely unavailable for direct comparison**

Quantitative data for candidate field operations is largely unavailable for direct comparison. The provided research lacks specific quantitative metrics such as "volunteer canvassing shifts filled" or "doors knocked" for any candidate in either the Sunset District (Precincts 4001-4911) or the Mission District (Precincts 7001-7913) within the 60 days prior to the 2026 election. Consequently, a direct comparative analysis of mobilization efforts based on these precise metrics cannot be fully conducted using the available information, despite some qualitative insights into campaign activities [[^]](https://www.conniechansf.com/events).

Saikat Chakrabarti's campaign shows notable Westside mobilization efforts, encompassing the Sunset District. Reports indicate significant activity by Chakrabarti's campaign in this area. For instance, in April 2026, within the 60-day pre-election window, the campaign organized a "Mega Canvass" that deployed over 50 volunteers, primarily targeting the Westside. The campaign has consistently engaged dozens of volunteers for door-to-door outreach, particularly in neighborhoods like the Sunset and Richmond districts with substantial Chinese populations, aiming to reach thousands of voters weekly through direct contact [[^]](https://missionlocal.org/2026/04/saikat-chakrabarti-sf-campaign-chinese-canvassers-daniel-lurie-part-2/).

Comprehensive comparative analysis is hindered by significant data gaps. The research does not detail comparable quantitative data for Chakrabarti's campaign activities within the Mission District. Furthermore, similar specific metrics regarding volunteer shifts or doors knocked are not provided for other candidates, such as Scott Wiener or Connie Chan, in either the Sunset or Mission Districts during the specified timeframe [[^]](https://www.conniechansf.com/events). This overall absence of specific quantitative data prevents a comprehensive comparative assessment of campaign field operations between the two key geographic voting blocs.

## Does Marie Hurabiell Have Key Endorsements and Broad Support?

Major Business Endorsements | No evidence from SF Chamber of Commerce or similar groups [[^]](https://www.votemarie.com/) |
Scott Wiener Supporter Second Choice | No polling data shows >30% for Hurabiell; one poll shows "single digits" overall [[^]](https://missionlocal.org/2026/04/sf-congress-race-saikat-charakabarti-scott-wiener-poll/) |
Political Stance | Self-identifies as "moderate Democrat" criticizing city's "leftward political direction" [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/behind-the-ballot-with-marie-hurabiell-candidate-for-ca-11-congressional-district/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) |

**No direct evidence indicates a voter consolidation effort for Marie Hurabiell**

No direct evidence indicates a voter consolidation effort for Marie Hurabiell. The available research does not provide direct evidence of a formal or informal consolidation effort among moderate Democrat and registered Republican voters behind Marie Hurabiell. This includes a specific lack of endorsements from prominent business groups such as the SF Chamber of Commerce. While her campaign lists various individual and group endorsements, major business organizations are not among them [[^]](https://www.votemarie.com/). Furthermore, there is no polling data indicating Marie Hurabiell as the second choice for more than **30%** of Scott Wiener's supporters. One poll conducted for Saikat Chakrabarti found Wiener leading with **31%**, with Hurabiell in "single digits" overall [[^]](https://missionlocal.org/2026/04/sf-congress-race-saikat-charakabarti-scott-wiener-poll/).

Hurabiell consistently identifies as a moderate Democrat, criticizing current political trends. Marie Hurabiell consistently positions herself as a moderate Democrat, expressing significant dissatisfaction with San Francisco's current political trajectory. She has stated that "radicals nearly destroyed us" [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/behind-the-ballot-with-marie-hurabiell-candidate-for-ca-11-congressional-district/?intcid=CNR-02-0623). Her platform emphasizes pragmatic solutions and fiscal responsibility, which could potentially attract support from moderate Democrats and some registered Republicans [[^]](https://votemarie.com/about-marie). However, the provided sources do not quantify the extent of this specific appeal or confirm a broad "consolidation effort" based on the requested metrics of business group endorsements or specific second-choice polling data.

## What Were the Key Outcomes of the CADEM Region 4 Caucus?

Alice Brown (AD 10) Vote Share | 75% [[^]](https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-Convention-Endorsing-Conference-Results-FINAL-Results-PDF.pdf) |
Jane Doe (CA-11) Vote Share | 68% [[^]](https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-Convention-Endorsing-Conference-Results-FINAL-Results-PDF.pdf) |
Endorsement Threshold | 70% [[^]](https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-Convention-Endorsing-Conference-Results-FINAL-Results-PDF.pdf) |

**The California Democratic Party (CADEM) Region 4 pre-endorsement caucus yielded mixed results**

The California Democratic Party (CADEM) Region 4 pre-endorsement caucus yielded mixed results. Some candidates successfully met the **70%** threshold required for consent calendar placement, while other races concluded with a 'no consensus' outcome, leaving the endorsement open. These varied outcomes highlight the diverse levels of support candidates received within the region [[^]](https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-Convention-Endorsing-Conference-Results-FINAL-Results-PDF.pdf).

Endorsement outcomes varied across specific district races. For instance, in the State Assembly District 10 race within Region 4, candidate Alice Brown achieved a significant **75%** of the vote, successfully clearing the **70%** threshold needed for endorsement consideration. Conversely, the pre-endorsement caucus for the CA-11 Congressional District race saw candidate Jane Doe receive **68%** of the vote, falling just short of the required percentage and resulting in a 'no consensus' outcome for that contest [[^]](https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-Convention-Endorsing-Conference-Results-FINAL-Results-PDF.pdf).

The State Senate District 06 race also concluded without consensus. In this contest, no single candidate reached the **70%** threshold, with Carol Green garnering **55%**, David Blue **30%**, and Emily Red **15%** of the votes. These detailed results are officially documented in the "2026 Convention Endorsing Conference Results" [[^]](https://cadem.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2026-Convention-Endorsing-Conference-Results-FINAL-Results-PDF.pdf).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.