# UT-01 Democratic nominee? In 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: Primaries US Elections HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/ut-01-democratic-nominee/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Ben McAdams to be the UT-01 Democratic nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Liban Mohamed secured the UT-01 Democratic nomination outright.** - Mohamed won **70.4%** of delegate votes at the 2026 party convention. - This outright win bypassed a primary election for the nomination. - Other listed candidates cannot be the Democratic nominee. - Ben McAdams showed strong early fundraising, but this was superseded. - Nate Blouin received progressive endorsements, but also superseded. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** Liban Mohamed secured the nomination; the 76c **market** offers a 1.3x payout multiple for an **85.8%** likely outcome. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ben McAdams | 76.0% | 85.8% | Model higher by 9.8pp | | Nate Blouin | 24.0% | 8.3% | Market higher by 15.7pp | | Kathleen Riebe | 1.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 1.0pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Ben McAdams | 76.0% | 85.8% | | Nate Blouin | 24.0% | 8.3% | | Kathleen Riebe | 1.0% | 0.0% | | Brian King | 1.0% | 0.0% | | Jenny Wilson | 1.0% | 0.0% | | Erin Mendenhall | 1.0% | 0.0% | | Luz Escamilla | 4.0% | 4.0% | | Caroline Gleich | 1.0% | 0.0% | | Kael Weston | 1.0% | 0.0% | - Expiration: November 3, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics Based on the chart data, this market opened with a high perceived probability of 82.0% for the "YES" outcome. It quickly established a resistance level at 85.0%, which was tested early on with a small amount of volume. Since that peak, the market has entered a gradual but clear downward trend. A significant support level was found at 63.0%, which represents the lowest point in the trading range. The current price of 76.0% sits between this low and the opening price, indicating that while sentiment has cooled, the market still assigns a high probability to a "YES" resolution. The overall price action shows a market correcting from initial optimism. The available information does not provide specific news or external events to explain the price movements. The initial spike to 85.0% was accompanied by a modest increase in trading volume, suggesting some conviction behind the move. However, the broader decline has occurred over a longer period with inconsistent volume, indicating a slow erosion of confidence rather than a reaction to a single major event. The total volume of 2,078 contracts across the market's lifespan suggests moderate but not intense trading activity. Overall, the market sentiment began as highly confident in a "YES" outcome but has since become more uncertain. The price drop from a high of 85.0% to a low of 63.0% demonstrates significant doubt entering the market at one point. While the price has recovered to 76.0%, the long-term downward trend suggests that traders are less certain than they were when the market first opened. The market is still pricing a "YES" as the likely outcome, but with notably less conviction. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if Ben McAdams wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 UT-01 House seat, and to NO if he does not. The market opened on November 14, 2025, and closes either upon McAdams securing the nomination or by November 3, 2026, 10:00am EST, whichever comes first. The outcome will be verified using official information from the Democratic and Republican Parties, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brian King | 0% | 4.1% | 1% | $84 | $84 | | Ben McAdams | 69% | 73% | 76% | $13,291.24 | $7,393.38 | | Caroline Gleich | 0% | 4% | 1% | $1 | $1 | | Erin Mendenhall | 0% | 4% | 1% | $51 | $51 | | Jenny Wilson | 0% | 1% | 1% | $67 | $65 | | Kathleen Riebe | 0% | 4% | 1% | $162 | $95 | | Kael Weston | 0% | 4% | 1% | $1 | $1 | | Luz Escamilla | 0% | 1% | 4% | $2 | $2 | | Nate Blouin | 25% | 27% | 24% | $6,123.2 | $3,772.05 | ## Who Leads Democratic Fundraising in Utah's 1st District, Q1 2026? Q1 2026 Fundraising Lead (Democrats) | Ben McAdams significantly leads other Democratic candidates in Utah's 1st Congressional District [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/02/utah-democrats-fundraising-report/) | Overall Fundraising Lead (All Candidates) | Ben McAdams led all candidates as of February 2, 2026 [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/02/utah-democrats-fundraising-report/) | Lead Over Nate Blouin | Ben McAdams led Nate Blouin as of April 21, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2026/04/21/ben-mcadams-leads-nate-blouin/) | **Former U.S** Former U.S. Representative Ben McAdams shows strong financial backing from Utah Democratic leadership. Based on Q1 2026 FEC filings, McAdams has demonstrated the most significant financial backing among Democratic candidates in Utah's 1st Congressional District, indicating consolidation behind him by the state party establishment and historical "max-out" donors. As of February 2, 2026, McAdams was reported to lead all candidates, including those from other parties, in fundraising for the district [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/02/utah-democrats-fundraising-report/). His financial strength was further highlighted in reports from April 2026, which noted that incumbents—a category McAdams previously belonged to—dominated fundraising in the new congressional map, positioning him as a frontrunner in securing financial resources [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/04/07/incumbent-candidates-dominate-fundraising-in-redrawn-utah-congressional-map-amid-fight-over-endorsements-from-progressives-and-president-donald-trump/). McAdams' fundraising advantage highlights established party support for his Q1 2026 campaign. By April 21, 2026, he was explicitly reported to lead fellow Democrat Nate Blouin in the fundraising race [[^]](https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2026/04/21/ben-mcadams-leads-nate-blouin/). While Liban Mohamed was named the Utah Democratic convention pick for the new 1st district [[^]](https://www.kuer.org/politics-government/2026-04-25/liban-mohamed-is-the-utah-democratic-convention-pick-in-the-new-1st-district), the available sources do not detail his Q1 2026 financial backing from party leaders or max-out donors. McAdams' consistent and leading fundraising numbers, as detailed by multiple news outlets citing FEC reports, suggest a strong base of support from traditional party funding channels and donors familiar with his past campaigns [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/02/utah-democrats-fundraising-report/). ## What are Ben McAdams's Early Campaign Activities for UT-01? Campaign Launch | January 29, 2024 [[^]](https://benmcadamsutah.com/ben-mcadams-launches-campaign-for-utahs-first-congressional-district/) | FEC Committee Status | Active, "FRIENDS OF BEN MCADAMS," ID C00658633 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8UT04053?tab=summary) | Total Raised (as of Dec 31, 2023) | $523,989.02 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8UT04053?tab=summary) | **Ben McAdams officially launched his campaign and registered with the Federal Election Commission (FEC)** Ben McAdams officially launched his campaign and registered with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). He formally announced his candidacy for Utah's First Congressional District (UT-01) on January 29, 2024, filing a Statement of Candidacy with the FEC for the U.S. House [[^]](https://benmcadamsutah.com/ben-mcadams-launches-campaign-for-utahs-first-congressional-district/). His active FEC candidate committee, "FRIENDS OF BEN MCADAMS" (FEC ID C00658633), further confirms his intention to seek the Democratic nomination for the 2026 election cycle [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8UT04053?tab=summary). McAdams has demonstrated strong early fundraising capabilities since his campaign launch. He raised **$500,000** within 24 hours of his announcement [[^]](https://utahpolitics.news/mcadams-flexes-early-fundraising-muscle/). As of December 31, 2023, FEC data indicates his campaign had raised a total of **$523,989.02**, with **$503,634.37** cash on hand [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8UT04053?tab=summary). By February 2026, he was noted as leading the fundraising efforts for Utah's redrawn 1st District [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/02/utah-democrats-fundraising-report/). These concrete actions, including his official launch, FEC registration, and substantial initial fundraising, signal his strong intent to be the primary contender for the Democratic nomination in UT-01. ## Which UT-01 candidate has most public events and local official endorsements? Candidate with Most Documented Events/Endorsements (besides McAdams) | Nate Blouin (Web research by end of 2025) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Utah%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Democratic_primary)) | Nate Blouin's Public Campaign Events in Weber County | At least three [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/nate-blouin-kicks-off-campaign-030148455.html) | Nate Blouin's Local Official Endorsements in Weber County | At least three [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/nate-blouin-kicks-off-campaign-030148455.html) | **Nate Blouin held multiple public campaign events in Weber County** Nate Blouin held multiple public campaign events in Weber County. The Democratic candidate for Utah's 1st Congressional District officially launched his campaign with a kick-off event at Weber State University in Ogden, Weber County, on May 28, 2024 [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/nate-blouin-kicks-off-campaign-030148455.html). He also engaged with local Democrats by speaking at the Weber County Democratic Central Committee meeting in June 2024 and attending their annual fundraiser in July 2024. Both of these later events also took place in Weber County [[^]](https://www.weberdemocrats.org/post/exciting-times-for-weber-county-democrats), representing documented public appearances within the UT-01 geographic boundaries. Blouin secured several endorsements from local elected officials. Regarding support from local officials within Weber, Davis, and Cache counties, Nate Blouin has received endorsements from several individuals. Key endorsements include former Ogden City Councilmember Jesse Garcia, Riverdale City Councilmember Steve Jenkins, and former Ogden City Councilmember Angela Choberka, all of whom are from Weber County [[^]](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/nate-blouin-kicks-off-campaign-030148455.html). While Blouin's campaign website lists endorsements from county Democratic Party chairs, these were not included as the research specifically sought support from elected local officials [[^]](https://www.nateforutah.com/endorsements). ## Which National Progressive Organizations Support UT-01 Candidates? Blouin Endorsement | Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/19/nate-blouin-major-progressive-endorsement/) | Key Blouin Supporter | Senator Bernie Sanders [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/19/nate-blouin-major-progressive-endorsement/) | Fundraising Leader | Ben McAdams leads Nate Blouin [[^]](https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2026/04/21/ben-mcadams-leads-nate-blouin/) | **National progressive organizations have significantly endorsed Nate Blouin in the UT-01 Democratic primary** National progressive organizations have significantly endorsed Nate Blouin in the UT-01 Democratic primary. These endorsements highlight his alignment with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, suggesting a strategy focused on mobilizing this political base. Notably, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC officially endorsed Blouin [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/19/nate-blouin-major-progressive-endorsement/), and Senator Bernie Sanders, a prominent national progressive figure, also provided an endorsement [[^]](https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/02/19/nate-blouin-major-progressive-endorsement/). Specific financial commitment data from national progressive PACs is currently unavailable. The provided research does not offer specific data or statistics regarding early financial commitments or contribution amounts from national progressive PACs to either Nate Blouin or Caroline Gleich. Caroline Gleich is not mentioned in the sources as having received endorsements or financial commitments from national progressive PACs. Overall fundraising figures indicate that Ben McAdams leads Nate Blouin in the race for Utah’s 1st Congressional District [[^]](https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2026/04/21/ben-mcadams-leads-nate-blouin/). ## How did Liban Mohamed win the 1st Congressional District nomination? Candidate | Liban Mohamed [[^]](https://www.kpvi.com/news/regional_news/newcomer-liban-mohamed-wins-a-rowdy-utah-democratic-convention/article_0971b36e-8355-5728-a3d4-a6d8e184053b.html) | Delegate Vote Share | 70.4% [[^]](https://utahnewsdispatch.com/2026/04/25/liban-mohamed-wins-democrat-nomination-utah-1st-congressional-district/) | Event Date | April 25, 2026 [[^]](https://utahnewsdispatch.com/2026/04/25/liban-mohamed-wins-democrat-nomination-utah-1st-congressional-district/) | **Liban Mohamed secured a dominant share of the delegate vote at the Utah Democratic Party's 2026 nominating convention, earning 70.4% [[^]](https://utahnewsdispatch.com/2026/04/25/liban-mohamed-wins-democrat-nomination-utah-1st-congressional-district/)** Liban Mohamed secured a dominant share of the delegate vote at the Utah Democratic Party's 2026 nominating convention, earning **70.4%** [[^]](https://utahnewsdispatch.com/2026/04/25/liban-mohamed-wins-democrat-nomination-utah-1st-congressional-district/). This outcome positioned him as the party's nominee for Utah's 1st Congressional District [[^]](https://utahnewsdispatch.com/2026/04/25/liban-mohamed-wins-democrat-nomination-utah-1st-congressional-district/). The convention took place on Saturday, April 25, 2026 [[^]](https://utahnewsdispatch.com/2026/04/25/liban-mohamed-wins-democrat-nomination-utah-1st-congressional-district/), at Jordan High School [[^]](https://utahdemocrats.org/convention26). Mohamed's commanding victory allowed him to bypass a primary election directly. His success, achieving over **55%** of the delegate vote, demonstrated a strong consolidation of support at this pivotal procedural event. This performance meant he earned the nomination outright, bypassing the need for a primary election [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Utah%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_23_Democratic_primary)), which is consistent with the convention's role in advancing stronger candidates in the electoral process [[^]](https://www.kpvi.com/news/regional_news/newcomer-liban-mohamed-wins-a-rowdy-utah-democratic-convention/article_0971b36e-8355-5728-a3d4-a6d8e184053b.html). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** November 03, 2027 - **Closes:** November 03, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/) - [How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?](/markets/elections/how-many-aipac-endorsed-candidates-will-lose-their-primaries/) - [Alaska Senate winner? (Person)](/markets/elections/us-elections/alaska-senate-winner-person/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.