# Texas Republican Attorney General nominee? In 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: Primaries HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/texas-republican-attorney-general-nominee/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** favor Mayes Middleton at approximately **75%** **probability**. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Chip Roy secured key endorsements from Ted Cruz and Ken Paxton.** - Roy demonstrates superior ground-game organization in Tarrant County precincts. - Mayes Middleton boasts a strong conservative legislative record, scoring **95%**. - Middleton plans to leverage the 2025 legislative session for campaign momentum. - Attorney General Ken Paxton aims for a U.S. Senate seat. - Research indicates a runoff between Roy and Middleton is likely. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **24.9%** for Chip Roy vs 22c **market**, implying 4.5x payout, backed by key endorsements and stronger ground-game. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Chip Roy | 22.0% | 24.9% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | | Mayes Middleton | 82.0% | 75.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Chip Roy | 22.0% | 24.9% | | Mayes Middleton | 82.0% | 75.1% | - Expiration: March 3, 2027 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market has demonstrated a consistent and strong downward trend, with the probability of a "YES" outcome declining from a high of 26.0% to its current price of 6.1%. The most significant activity occurred during a volatile period in mid-to-late April. A sharp, single-day spike of 11.0 percentage points on April 17th briefly pushed the price to 24.0%, but this upward momentum was quickly and decisively reversed. Two major drops followed: a 15.5 point fall on April 19th and another 10.9 point drop on April 25th, which erased the earlier gains and pushed the price to new lows. According to the available information, there are no specific news events or external developments that directly explain this period of high volatility. The total volume of 11,702 contracts suggests significant overall interest in the market, although daily trading appears to be sporadic. The sharp price movements likely occurred on higher-than-average volume days, indicating periods where traders acted with strong conviction. From a technical perspective, the initial high of 26.0% acted as a firm resistance level that has not been challenged since the market's inception. The price is currently testing its historical low around 5.5%, which may now serve as a support level. Overall, the price action reflects a deeply pessimistic market sentiment, with participants consistently selling off contracts and driving the probability of this outcome to near its lowest possible point. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 April 25, 2026: 10.9pp drop Price decreased from 19.0% to 8.1% **Outcome:** Chip Roy **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📉 April 19, 2026: 15.5pp drop Price decreased from 23.0% to 7.5% **Outcome:** Chip Roy **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 17, 2026: 11.0pp spike Price increased from 13.0% to 24.0% **Outcome:** Chip Roy **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to Yes if Mayes Middleton wins the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 Texas Attorney General election, and to No otherwise, with the outcome verified by the State of Texas. The market opened on December 28, 2025, and will close upon the event occurring (or by March 3, 2027, if it does not), with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. Persons employed by any Source Agencies are prohibited from trading this contract. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Chip Roy | 22% | 26% | 22% | $82,825.47 | $32,394.42 | | Mayes Middleton | 82% | 83% | 82% | $62,301.86 | $33,400.36 | ## What Are Ken Paxton's 2026 Political Intentions? 2026 Campaign Focus | U.S. Senate campaign preparation [[^]](https://kenpaxton.com/) | Campaign Consultants | Axiom Strategies hired for Senate bid [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/08/paxton-cornyn-senate-texas) | Texas AG Endorsement | Aaron Reitz for Republican primary [[^]](https://www.texastribune.org/2025/08/25/paxton-reitz-cruz-roy-texas-attorney-general-endorsements/) | **Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton aims for a U.S** Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton aims for a U.S. Senate seat. He is preparing for a 2026 U.S. Senate campaign, signaling a shift from his current role as Texas Attorney General. Paxton has launched a campaign website titled "Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate" and has engaged political consulting firms, including Axiom Strategies, specifically for his 2026 Texas Senate primary campaign [[^]](https://kenpaxton.com/). These actions indicate his focus on securing a federal office in the upcoming election cycle [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/08/paxton-cornyn-senate-texas). Aaron Reitz would gain Paxton's inner circle support for AG. If Ken Paxton decides not to seek re-election as Attorney General, he has already publicly endorsed Aaron Reitz for the Republican primary for Texas Attorney General [[^]](https://www.texastribune.org/2025/08/25/paxton-reitz-cruz-roy-texas-attorney-general-endorsements/). Given Axiom Strategies' role as Paxton's primary political consulting firm for his Senate bid, it is anticipated that his inner circle and consultants would actively support Aaron Reitz's campaign for Attorney General, aligning with Paxton's stated preference [[^]](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/08/paxton-cornyn-senate-texas). ## Which Texas AG Candidate Secures Plurality of Abbott's Top Donor Backing? Abbott 2022 Total Contributions | Over $105 million [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2022/10/10/texas-gov-abbott-receives-69-5-million-this-cycle-with-s-javaid-anwar-as-top-individual-donor/) | Abbott 2022 Top Individual Donor | S. Javaid Anwar [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2022/10/10/texas-gov-abbott-receives-69-5-million-this-cycle-with-s-javaid-anwar-as-top-individual-donor/) | 2026 Texas AG Primary Funding | Millions pouring into GOP primary [[^]](https://feeds.texastribune.org/link/16799/17254968/texas-attorney-general-fundraising-campaign-finance-donors-2026) | **Specific details are unavailable to identify top donors' 2026 Attorney General contributions** Specific details are unavailable to identify top donors' 2026 Attorney General contributions. Research conducted cannot fully determine which candidate in the 2026 Texas Attorney General race has secured a plurality of financial backing from the top 25 individual donors to Governor Greg Abbott's 2022 campaign, as detailed in Texas Ethics Commission filings by the end of Q2 2025. While significant fundraising for both Abbott's 2022 campaign and the ongoing 2026 Texas Attorney General race is confirmed, the available research lacks a cross-referenced list of Abbott's specific top 25 individual donors from 2022 and their subsequent contributions to 2026 Attorney General candidates by the end of Q2 2025. Abbott's 2022 campaign, 2026 AG race both attracted significant funding. Governor Greg Abbott's 2022 reelection campaign raised over **$105** million in contributions, with S. Javaid Anwar identified as his top individual donor during that cycle [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2022/10/10/texas-gov-abbott-receives-69-5-million-this-cycle-with-s-javaid-anwar-as-top-individual-donor/). Concurrently, the 2026 Texas Attorney General primary race is attracting substantial financial backing, with 'millions pour[ing] into' the GOP primary [[^]](https://feeds.texastribune.org/link/16799/17254968/texas-attorney-general-fundraising-campaign-finance-donors-2026). Reports published by mid-2025 indicate that 'big money is shaping GOP primaries' for key statewide offices, including Attorney General [[^]](https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/16/texas-attorney-general-comptroller-campaign-finance-fundraising/). Campaign finance data for these races is available through the end of Q2 2025 via the Texas Ethics Commission [[^]](https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/16/texas-attorney-general-comptroller-campaign-finance-fundraising/). ## Have Endorsements Impacted Roy and Middleton in Texas AG Race? Chip Roy Endorsements | U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, AG Ken Paxton [[^]](https://thetexan.news/elections/2026/cruz-paxton-endorsements-upend-race-for-texas-attorney-general/article_14db24ca-6ee0-4f41-82f5-f4549a55a7d1.html) | Mayes Middleton Endorsements | Aaron Reitz [[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/aaron-reitz-mayes-middleton-attorney-general-texas-22196599.php), [[^]](https://texaspolitics.com/2026/03/26/lonestar-3-26-2026-aaron-reitz-backs-middleton-over-roy-in-tx-ag-race-cornyn-camp-targets-paxton-over-alleged-misuse-of-taxpayer-funds-and-more/) | Current Race Status | Both proceeding to runoff election [[^]](http://statesman.com/politics/election/2026/article/attorney-general-primary-results-21329278.php), [[^]](https://www.statesman.com/politics/texas/article/chip-roy-mayes-middleton-maga-21124676.php), [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/04/22/mayes-middleton-and-chip-roy-seeking-republican-nomination-for-texas-attorney-general-in-may-26-runoff/) | **Neither Chip Roy nor Mayes Middleton has secured a consolidated endorsement from the Texas Freedom Caucus** Neither Chip Roy nor Mayes Middleton has secured a consolidated endorsement from the Texas Freedom Caucus. The caucus, which comprised 16 members in 2023, rather than the initially assumed 50+, has not collectively endorsed either candidate [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_Freedom_Caucus). Instead, both candidates have received notable individual endorsements from various conservative factions. For instance, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and incumbent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton have publicly endorsed Chip Roy [[^]](https://thetexan.news/elections/2026/cruz-paxton-endorsements-upend-race-for-texas-attorney-general/article_14db24ca-6ee0-4f41-82f5-f4549a55a7d1.html). Conversely, Mayes Middleton has garnered support from Aaron Reitz, a former primary opponent [[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/aaron-reitz-mayes-middleton-attorney-general-texas-22196599.php), [[^]](https://texaspolitics.com/2026/03/26/lonestar-3-26-2026-aaron-reitz-backs-middleton-over-roy-in-tx-ag-race-cornyn-camp-targets-paxton-over-alleged-misuse-of-taxpayer-funds-and-more/). These endorsements reflect individual backing but do not indicate a broad, collective endorsement from the Texas Freedom Caucus. Both candidates successfully advanced to a runoff election, indicating no withdrawals from the race. Neither Chip Roy nor Mayes Middleton dropped out before the filing deadline, as they both advanced past the initial primary election [[^]](http://statesman.com/politics/election/2026/article/attorney-general-primary-results-21329278.php), [[^]](https://www.statesman.com/politics/texas/article/chip-roy-mayes-middleton-maga-21124676.php), [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/04/22/mayes-middleton-and-chip-roy-seeking-republican-nomination-for-texas-attorney-general-in-may-26-runoff/). They are now actively campaigning for the Republican nomination for Texas Attorney General in a runoff election scheduled for May 26 [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/04/22/mayes-middleton-and-chip-roy-seeking-republican-nomination-for-texas-attorney-general-in-may-26-runoff/). There are no available sources indicating any intent for either candidate to withdraw from the race. ## Who Leads Texas AG Primary Precinct Chair Endorsements in Tarrant County? Chip Roy Tarrant County Endorsements | 28 precinct chair endorsements (January 2026) [[^]](https://tarrantcountypatriots.com/2026-texas-gop-primary-endorsements/) | Mayes Middleton Tarrant County Endorsements | 17 precinct chair endorsements (January 2026) [[^]](https://tarrantcountypatriots.com/2026-texas-gop-primary-endorsements/) | Reitz Tarrant County Endorsements | 5 precinct chair endorsements (January 2026) [[^]](https://tarrantcountypatriots.com/2026-texas-gop-primary-endorsements/) | **Chip Roy demonstrates superior ground-game organization in Tarrant County** Chip Roy demonstrates superior ground-game organization in Tarrant County. As of January 2026, U.S. Representative Chip Roy has secured 28 precinct chair endorsements in the 2026 Texas Republican Attorney General primary, indicating a clear advantage in this crucial high-turnout county [[^]](https://tarrantcountypatriots.com/2026-texas-gop-primary-endorsements/). State Senator Mayes Middleton secured 17 endorsements, while Reitz received 5 within the same county and timeframe [[^]](https://tarrantcountypatriots.com/2026-texas-gop-primary-endorsements/). Specific precinct chair endorsement data is unavailable for other key counties. For other high-turnout counties, including Collin, Denton, and Montgomery, specific precinct chair endorsement data for the Texas Attorney General race by January 2026 is not publicly available. Although the Denton County Republican Party website lists accepted precinct chair filings, it does not detail candidate endorsements [[^]](https://dentongop.org/2026-accepted-precinct-chair-filings/). Similarly, the Collin County Republican Party's general information does not include such figures [[^]](https://www.collincountygop.org/), and specific data for Montgomery County is not present in available sources. Despite the primary being noted as crowded, comprehensive county-level precinct chair endorsement data remains largely unquantified in the public domain across these counties [[^]](https://bit.ly/4rjfv6b). ## How Will Mayes Middleton Leverage 2025 Session for AG Bid? Candidate Role | Conservative Republican candidate for Texas Attorney General [[^]](https://mayesmiddleton.com/) | Key Platform Issues | Border security, election integrity, 'safest in America' [[^]](https://dallasexpress.com/state/mayes-middleton-emerges-as-conservative-powerhouse-ag-contender/) | Conservative Score | 95% on Texas Taxpayers and Research Association Index (2023 session) [[^]](https://index.texastaxpayers.com/legislators/mayes-middleton/2025-index) | **State Senator Mayes Middleton is positioned to leverage the 2025 legislative session** State Senator Mayes Middleton is positioned to leverage the 2025 legislative session. He is expected to utilize the upcoming Texas legislative session as a launchpad for his primary campaign for Attorney General, focusing on high-profile 'red meat' issues. Identified as a 'Conservative Republican' [[^]](https://mayesmiddleton.com/) and a 'conservative powerhouse' [[^]](https://dallasexpress.com/state/mayes-middleton-emerges-as-conservative-powerhouse-ag-contender/), Middleton's platform emphasizes issues popular with the Republican base, specifically enhanced border security and upholding election integrity, with a stated goal of making Texas the 'safest in America' [[^]](https://dallasexpress.com/state/mayes-middleton-emerges-as-conservative-powerhouse-ag-contender/). His legislative experience includes service in both the Texas House and Senate [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayes_Middleton). Middleton consistently demonstrates a conservative stance, reflected by his **95%** conservative score from the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association Index during the 2023 session [[^]](https://index.texastaxpayers.com/legislators/mayes-middleton/2025-index). Middleton's legislative focus aligns with his primary campaign timeline. His stated emphasis on border security and election law directly corresponds with issues capable of generating significant public attention and mobilizing primary voters [[^]](https://dallasexpress.com/state/mayes-middleton-emerges-as-conservative-powerhouse-ag-contender/). As a current state senator, he possesses the legislative authority to introduce or champion such bills during the 2025 session [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_Attorney_General_election,_2026_(March_3_Republican_primary)). This session strategically precedes the March 2026 Republican primary for Attorney General [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_Attorney_General_election,_2026_(March_3_Republican_primary)), making it an opportune moment for high-profile legislative action. While specific legislative proposals for 2025 have not been detailed, his strong conservative credentials and explicit campaign promises indicate a high likelihood of him pursuing this strategic legislative approach. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** March 03, 2027 - **Closes:** March 03, 2027 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-democratic-presidential-nomination-in-2028/) - [Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/) - [How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?](/markets/elections/how-many-aipac-endorsed-candidates-will-lose-their-primaries/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 2 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXAGNOMTXR-26-JHUF: NO (Mar 06, 2026) - KXAGNOMTXR-26-AREI: NO (Mar 06, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/elections/primaries/texas-republican-attorney-general-nominee If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.