# SC-06 Democratic nominee? SC-06 (D) Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: Primaries HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/sc-06-democratic-nominee/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Jim Clyburn to be the SC-06 Democratic nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Jim Clyburn is the incumbent and sole listed Democratic candidate.** - No primary challengers, debates, or negative Super PACs target Clyburn. - Frederick Goodwin lacks campaign contributions, endorsements, or advertising. - Goodwin's reported candidacy is for a different local office. - No other major Democratic candidate has emerged for SC-06. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99%** for Clyburn is 3 points higher than **market** (1.0x payout), given he's the sole candidate. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jim Clyburn | 96.0% | 99.0% | Model higher by 3.0pp | | Frederick Goodwin | 9.0% | 1.0% | Market higher by 8.0pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Jim Clyburn | 96.0% | 99.0% | | Frederick Goodwin | 9.0% | 1.0% | - Expiration: November 3, 2027 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for the South Carolina 6th Congressional District Democratic nominee reflects a period of high stability and strong consensus. The price has traded in a very narrow 6-point range, from a low of 91.0% to a high of 97.0%, indicating overwhelming confidence in a "YES" outcome. The overall trend is sideways, with the price currently at 96.0%, suggesting the market has found an equilibrium at a very high probability. This tight trading channel establishes clear, albeit narrow, support around the 91.0% level and resistance near the 97.0% mark. There have been no significant price spikes or drops to analyze, as the market's movement has been confined to minor fluctuations within this established range. The market sentiment is unequivocally bullish on the "YES" outcome. The consistently high price, well above 90%, shows that participants strongly believe this candidate is the presumptive nominee. The total volume of 910 contracts, distributed across this stable price range, suggests that while there is activity, it primarily serves to reinforce the existing high probability rather than challenge it. The absence of volatility corresponds with the lack of new information or context provided, indicating that no recent events have occurred to disrupt the market's firm conviction. ## Contract Snapshot A "Yes" resolution occurs if Jim Clyburn wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 SC-06 House seat; otherwise, the market resolves to "No." The market opened on April 18, 2026, and will close either after the outcome occurs or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Outcomes are verified using the Republican and Democratic Party websites, and individuals employed by these source agencies are prohibited from trading this contract. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Frederick Goodwin | 1% | 7% | 9% | $1 | $1 | | Jim Clyburn | 96% | 97% | 96% | $910.01 | $455.01 | ## Are Frederick Goodwin's SC-06 U.S. House Contributions Known? Frederick Goodwin SC-06 U.S. House Total Contributions | Not reported in available research for 2024 election cycle [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/SC/06/2024/) | Frederick Goodwin Listing in FEC Data (SC-06 2024) | Not listed with reported campaign contributions [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/SC/06/2024/) | Primary Challenger Viability Threshold Assessment | Cannot be assessed from provided research [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/SC/06/2024/) | **Frederick Goodwin's campaign contributions are not reported in available research** Frederick Goodwin's campaign contributions are not reported in available research. Web research and Federal Election Commission (FEC) data do not list campaign contributions for a candidate named Frederick Goodwin specifically for the SC-06 U.S. House race in the 2024 election cycle [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/SC/06/2024/). A thorough review of other provided sources also failed to provide specific financial data for this candidate in the SC-06 U.S. House primary [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_South_Carolina). Without data, assessing viability against a **$100,000** threshold is impossible. Consequently, it is not possible to provide his total campaign contributions or to determine if any such amount would exceed the typical **$100,000** viability threshold for a primary challenger in a U.S. House race based on the available information [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/SC/06/2024/). The absence of reported contributions prevents an assessment of whether such an amount meets or surpasses the viability threshold. ## Has Frederick Goodwin Received Endorsements From Key SC Political Groups? SC Political Figure Endorsements | No formal endorsements listed [[^]](https://www.ballotready.org/people/frederick-r-goodwin-c8422748-d817-45d0-87ef-a5c4e783cd70) | SC Labor Union Endorsements | No endorsements from SC AFL-CIO or other unions found [[^]](https://aflciosc.org/) | Progressive Org. Endorsements | No such endorsements found, and organizations previously endorsing Jim Clyburn are not identified in sources [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_James_Clyburn) | **Frederick Goodwin has not secured key endorsements from South Carolina figures** Frederick Goodwin has not secured key endorsements from South Carolina figures. Available web research indicates he has not received formal endorsements from significant South Carolina political figures, labor unions, or progressive organizations that have previously backed Jim Clyburn [[^]](https://www.ballotready.org/people/frederick-r-goodwin-c8422748-d817-45d0-87ef-a5c4e783cd70). His online profiles on BallotReady and Ballotpedia do not list any such formal endorsements [[^]](https://www.ballotready.org/people/frederick-r-goodwin-c8422748-d817-45d0-87ef-a5c4e783cd70). Ballotpedia further specifies his current candidacy is for Santee Town Council At-large, South Carolina, in 2025 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Frederick_R._Goodwin_(Santee_Town_Council_At-large,_South_Carolina,_candidate_2025)). No significant labor unions have endorsed Frederick Goodwin for any office. While the South Carolina AFL-CIO actively endorses candidates, notably backing Michael B. Moore for Congress in the past, available research shows no indication that this union or any other significant labor organization has endorsed Frederick Goodwin [[^]](https://aflciosc.org/). Identifying progressive groups endorsing Clyburn proved challenging for comparison. The research could not identify specific progressive organizations that have previously endorsed Jim Clyburn [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_James_Clyburn). This lack of information prevents any cross-referencing to determine if Frederick Goodwin has received endorsements from such groups [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_James_Clyburn). ## Was There Significant Goodwin Campaign Advertising in SC-06 Primary? Goodwin Campaign SC-06 Ad Buy | No documented significant local media advertising found (Research findings summary) [[^]](https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article315207701.html) | Research Primary Focus | South Carolina gubernatorial race and statewide ad buys [[^]](https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article315207701.html) | SC-06 Election Ad Details | No specific advertising expenditures for individual campaigns mentioned [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_South_Carolina) | **No documented evidence of a significant local media advertising buy by a "Goodwin campaign" targeting voters in the SC-06 district was found** No documented evidence of a significant local media advertising buy by a "Goodwin campaign" targeting voters in the SC-06 district was found. This search focused on the 30 days leading up to the primary and included an examination of potential television, radio, or major digital outlet advertisements. The research did not uncover any specific information regarding such advertising expenditures from a campaign named "Goodwin." Most available sources focused on the South Carolina gubernatorial race rather than district-level House elections. These sources primarily detailed topics such as TV ad buys, statewide ad drops, and overall campaign fundraising efforts for the governor's contest [[^]](https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article315207701.html). While some references to the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in South Carolina, including district 6, were present, these sources did not provide specific advertising expenditures for individual campaigns or mention a "Goodwin campaign" [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_South_Carolina). Consequently, no specific advertising spending data for a "Goodwin campaign" was uncovered within the specified timeframe. The research did not yield any specific facts, data points, or statistics related to advertising spending by such a campaign in SC-06. ## Are Super PACs Targeting Jim Clyburn in the SC-06 Primary? Independent Expenditures Targeting Jim Clyburn | None identified in SC-06 primary [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) | SC-06 Democratic Primary Candidates | Jim Clyburn (sole candidate) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) | Election Cycle for Primary | 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) | **No independent expenditure campaigns, commonly known as Super PACs, target Jim Clyburn** No independent expenditure campaigns, commonly known as Super PACs, target Jim Clyburn. No such campaigns have been identified as specifically running negative advertising against Jim Clyburn in the South Carolina's 6th Congressional District (SC-06) primary. This finding is primarily due to current information indicating that Jim Clyburn is the only listed Democratic candidate for the 2026 primary election in this district [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Reputable sources including Ballotpedia [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2026), Wikipedia [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_South_Carolina), the South Carolina Democratic Party [[^]](https://scdp.org/2026-candidates/), and OpenCampaign [[^]](https://www.opencampaign.com/united-states-elections/3171/2026-u.s.-house-elections/south-carolina/district-6?district_name=district-6) consistently list James Clyburn as the incumbent and the sole Democratic candidate for the SC-06 seat for the 2026 cycle, without mention of primary challengers or associated negative campaigns. FEC records further confirm an absence of external negative advertising. A review of Federal Election Commission (FEC) records for "FRIENDS OF JIM CLYBURN" [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00255562/) and his candidate overview [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2SC02042/) details principal campaign committee finances. Schedule E entries for independent expenditures refer solely to internal campaign expenses, such as payroll and legal services made by "CLYBURN FOR CONGRESS INC." [[^]](https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00630665/1945174/se), rather than external groups or negative advertising efforts. ## Are 2026 SC-06 Democratic Primary Debates Currently Scheduled? 2026 SC-06 Primary Debates | None officially scheduled by major media or civic groups (Research findings) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_South_Carolina) | Jim Clyburn Debate Participation | No public agreement to participate (No debates scheduled) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_South_Carolina) | Jim Clyburn's Reelection Plan | Intends to seek another term [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/james-clyburn-campaign-announcement-sc/article_98f66fab-96fd-4a8b-87ee-bdd493c8ac9f.html) | **No official primary debates are currently scheduled for SC-06** No official primary debates are currently scheduled for SC-06. As of current research, no major South Carolina media outlets or civic groups have officially scheduled a televised or widely broadcasted primary debate for the 2026 South Carolina's 6th Congressional District (SC-06) Democratic primary. While South Carolina ETV (SCETV) has a history of hosting primary debates, such as the 2022 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Debate [[^]](https://www.scetv.org/2022-democratic-gubernatorial-primary-debate), there is no information indicating a debate schedule for the upcoming 2026 SC-06 primary. Similarly, the League of Women Voters of South Carolina, which engages in voter education [[^]](https://my.lwv.org/south-carolina-state), has not listed any scheduled debates for this specific race and election cycle. Representative Clyburn's campaign has not agreed to a debate. Representative Jim Clyburn has publicly announced his intention to seek another term in Congress, pledging to conduct a vigorous campaign for reelection [[^]](https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/james-clyburn-campaign-announcement-sc/article_98f66fab-96fd-4a8b-87ee-bdd493c8ac9f.html). However, in the absence of any officially scheduled primary debate for the SC-06 district, his campaign has not publicly agreed to participate in one. The available sources confirm Clyburn's intention to campaign again but do not address his stance on potential debates, as none appear to be scheduled at this time. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** November 03, 2027 - **Closes:** November 03, 2027 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?](/markets/elections/2028/who-will-run-for-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination/) - [How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?](/markets/elections/how-many-aipac-endorsed-candidates-will-lose-their-primaries/) - [Alaska Senate winner? (Person)](/markets/elections/us-elections/alaska-senate-winner-person/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.