# SC-01 Democratic nominee? In 2026 Updated: April 28, 2026 Category: Elections Tags: Primaries US Elections HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/sc-01-democratic-nominee/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** The **model** identifies Nancy Lacore as the most likely SC-01 Democratic nominee but sees potential mispricing, assigning a **69.2%** **probability** compared to the **market**'s **81.0%** and suggesting the **market** may be overestimating her chances. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Michael Moore holds stronger early financial backing and local legislative endorsements.** - Moore received prominent 2024 primary endorsements, indicating establishment support. - Mac Deford launched his 2026 campaign with majority county chair endorsements. - Deford's 2024 primary fundraising was competitive, demonstrating campaign viability. - Other candidates lack credible campaign infrastructure or significant party backing. - No strong unlisted candidate is likely to emerge and win. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** At 81c, the **market** prices the nominee higher than the **69.2%** **model** estimate, suggesting overvaluation given strong primary competition. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nancy Lacore | 81.0% | 69.2% | Specific campaign details, endorsements, or significant public activity are not detailed in available research. | | Mac Deford | 20.0% | 24.7% | Launched 2026 campaign, secured majority Democratic County Chair endorsements, and had competitive 2024 fundraising. | | Robert Beers | 4.0% | 3.5% | His campaign has not yet publicly demonstrated significant traction or detailed key endorsements. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Nancy Lacore | 81.0% | 69.2% | | Mac Deford | 20.0% | 24.7% | | Robert Beers | 4.0% | 3.5% | | Mayra Rivera-Vazquez | 1.0% | 0.9% | | KJ Atwood | 1.0% | 0.9% | | Max Diaz | 1.0% | 0.9% | - Expiration: June 9, 2027 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This analysis covers the prediction market for the "SC-01 Democratic nominee?". The market exhibits a clear and strong upward trend, with the probability for the "YES" outcome climbing from a starting price of 72.0% to its current level of 81.0%. This represents a significant 9-point increase over the observed period. The price action has been consistently positive, establishing new highs without any major pullbacks. The 81.0% mark currently serves as the peak price and immediate resistance level, while the initial price of 72.0% can be viewed as the foundational support for this trend. The provided context includes no specific news or external events that would explain this sharp rise in perceived probability. Therefore, the price movement appears to be driven by the market's internal assessment of the situation rather than a reaction to a public catalyst. While the sample data points show zero volume, the total traded volume of 4,879 contracts indicates that significant activity has occurred throughout the market's history. This suggests that the price increases were supported by meaningful trading, reflecting a growing conviction among participants. The absence of volume on specific price-setting days might indicate gapping movements or activity concentrated on days not shown in the sample. Overall, the chart indicates a strong and consolidating market sentiment in favor of the "YES" outcome. The steady ascent from 72.0% to 81.0%, backed by substantial total volume, suggests that traders are increasingly confident in this result. The market consensus has not only started at a high level of certainty but has consistently strengthened over time, pricing the "YES" side as a highly probable event. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to "Yes" if Nancy Lacore wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 SC-01 House seat, with the outcome verified by the South Carolina Election Commission. If she does not win the nomination, the market resolves to "No," as the event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on February 6, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST and will close either upon Nancy Lacore winning the nomination or by June 9, 2027, at 10:00 AM EDT. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after the market closes. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | KJ Atwood | 0.1% | 4% | 1% | $51 | $51 | | Mac Deford | 17% | 24% | 20% | $4,860 | $2,140 | | Max Diaz | 0.1% | 4% | 1% | $51 | $51 | | Mayra Rivera-Vazquez | 0.1% | 4% | 1% | $51 | $51 | | Nancy Lacore | 80% | 81% | 81% | $8,723 | $5,005.64 | | Robert Beers | 0.1% | 4% | 4% | $52 | $52 | ## Who Has Stronger Financial Backing and Local Endorsements? Michael B. Moore Cash on Hand | $104,117.89 (as of Dec 31, 2023) [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/SC/1) | Mac Deford Cash on Hand | $103,178.69 (as of Dec 31, 2023) [[^]](https://www.capitolhillaccess.com/tr/tr_CHA_PB1?sCandID=H6SC01227&sCycle=2026&sDistrict=01&sState=SC) | Moore's State Legislator Endorsements | 3 (from SC House Reps Spencer Wetmore, Krystle Matthews, Deon Tedder) [[^]](https://mytvcharleston.com/news/local/democrat-michael-b-moore-announces-slew-of-endorsements-in-bid-for-congress-south-carolina-abc-news-4-2024-democrat-republican-mac-deford-nancy-mace) | **Michael B** Michael B. Moore currently demonstrates a stronger combination of early financial power and local establishment backing. As of December 31, 2023, Moore's campaign reported **$104,117.89** in cash on hand, slightly surpassing Mac Deford's **$103,178.69** for the same period [[^]](https://www.capitolhillaccess.com/tr/tr_CHA_PB1?sCandID=H6SC01227&sCycle=2026&sDistrict=01&sState=SC). Both candidates have shown significant early fundraising, with Moore holding a marginal financial advantage. Moore secured more qualifying endorsements from Democratic state legislators. Michael B. Moore has received public endorsements from three current Democratic state legislators: South Carolina House Representatives Spencer Wetmore (District 115), Krystle Matthews (District 117), and Deon Tedder (District 109) [[^]](https://mytvcharleston.com/news/local/democrat-michael-b-moore-announces-slew-of-endorsements-in-bid-for-congress-south-carolina-abc-news-4-2024-democrat-republican-mac-deford-nancy-mace). In contrast, Mac Deford has secured endorsements from two state legislators: South Carolina House Representatives Marvin Pendarvis (District 113) and Wendell Gilliard (District 111) [[^]](https://defordforcongress.com/endorsements/). This indicates Moore has a greater number of qualifying endorsements from current Democratic state legislators representing parts of Charleston or Beaufort counties. ## How Did Mac Deford's 2024 Primary Campaign Fundraising Perform? Q1 2024 Fundraising Total | $130,000 [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/defords-130k-raised-in-q1-indicates-bipartisan-appeal-in-bid-for-congress-campaign-says-michael-b-moore-nancy-mace-democrat-republican-abc-news-4-south-carolina-1st-congressional-district) | Pre-Primary Funds Lead | Mac Deford and Catherine Templeton [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/mac-deford-catherine-templeton-lead-in-campaign-fundraising-for-pre-primary-election-filing-period-democrat-republican-nancy-mace-michael-b-moore-wciv-abc-news-4-2024) | Competitive Standing | Nearly even with top GOP fundraiser [[^]](https://holycitysinner.com/politics/new-fec-filings-show-deford-nearly-even-with-top-gop-fundrai/) | **Mac Deford's 2024 primary campaign demonstrated competitive fundraising performance** Mac Deford's 2024 primary campaign demonstrated competitive fundraising performance. His committee, "DEFORD FOR CONGRESS" (FEC ID C00836478), successfully raised **$130,000** in the first quarter [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/defords-130k-raised-in-q1-indicates-bipartisan-appeal-in-bid-for-congress-campaign-says-michael-b-moore-nancy-mace-democrat-republican-abc-news-4-south-carolina-1st-congressional-district). During the pre-primary filing period, Deford's campaign led in funds alongside Catherine Templeton [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/mac-deford-catherine-templeton-lead-in-campaign-fundraising-for-pre-primary-election-filing-period-democrat-republican-nancy-mace-michael-b-moore-wciv-abc-news-4-2024). New FEC filings further indicated that Deford nearly matched a top Republican fundraiser and positioned him ahead of the remaining Republican field at that time [[^]](https://holycitysinner.com/politics/new-fec-filings-show-deford-nearly-even-with-top-gop-fundrai/). Specific donor origin data and future strategy details are currently unavailable. The research does not provide a detailed percentage breakdown of Deford's 2024 donors from within SC-01 versus national donors. Similarly, despite Deford launching his 2026 congressional campaign for SC-01 [[^]](https://thepalmettoeye.com/veteran-mac-deford-launches-2026-congressional-campaign-for-south-carolinas-1st-congressional-district/), information regarding a potential shift in his future fundraising strategy to prioritize grassroots, in-district fundraising over national Political Action Committees (PACs) is not detailed in the available research. ## Who Endorsed Key Candidates in the 2024 SC-01 Primary? Michael B. Moore Key Endorsements | Rep. Jim Clyburn, Charleston County Democratic Party, Jaime Harrison [[^]](https://mytvcharleston.com/news/local/democrat-michael-b-moore-announces-slew-of-endorsements-in-bid-for-congress-south-carolina-abc-news-4-2024-democrat-republican-mac-deford-nancy-mace) | Mac Deford Endorsements | Secured key endorsements [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/charleston-county/deford-campaign-announces-wave-of-endorsements-in-south-carolinas-1st-district-race-congress-midterms) | 2026 SC-01 Primary Field Status | Currently open, no candidates listed (early 2024) [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026) | **Michael B** Michael B. Moore received substantial support from key figures and organizations in the 2024 South Carolina's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary. Notable endorsers included U.S. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, Charleston County Council Chairwoman Pamela Ravenell, North Charleston Mayor Keith Summey, and former U.S. Senate candidate Jaime Harrison [[^]](https://mytvcharleston.com/news/local/democrat-michael-b-moore-announces-slew-of-endorsements-in-bid-for-congress-south-carolina-abc-news-4-2024-democrat-republican-mac-deford-nancy-mace). Additionally, local Democratic groups such as the Charleston County Young Democrats, the South Carolina Young Democrats, and the Charleston County Democratic Party backed Moore [[^]](https://mytvcharleston.com/news/local/democrat-michael-b-moore-announces-slew-of-endorsements-in-bid-for-congress-south-carolina-abc-news-4-2024-democrat-republican-mac-deford-nancy-mace). Mac Deford, another candidate in the 2024 primary, also garnered his own significant endorsements [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/charleston-county/deford-campaign-announces-wave-of-endorsements-in-south-carolinas-1st-district-race-congress-midterms). Future "anti-Deford" endorsements before late 2025 remain uncertain, despite varied primary preferences. While distinct endorsement patterns in the 2024 primary indicated diverse preferences within the Democratic Party, the likelihood of public endorsements for an "anti-Deford" candidate before the end of 2025 is currently speculative. The field for the 2026 Democratic nomination for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District is presently open, with no specific candidates publicly identified by the South Carolina Democratic Party as of early 2024 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Any subsequent endorsements will largely depend on which individuals ultimately decide to run and the prevailing political landscape. ## Which Lesser-Known Candidates Have Credible SC Campaign Infrastructure? Campaign Manager Experience | No details on prior South Carolina congressional race experience for Rivera-Vazquez, Beers, or Atwood [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayra_Rivera-Vazquez). | Physical Campaign Office | No details on physical campaign offices in Charleston or Beaufort for Rivera-Vazquez, Beers, or Atwood [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayra_Rivera-Vazquez). | Diaz Campaign Infrastructure | No specific sources provided for evaluation of campaign manager or physical office [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayra_Rivera-Vazquez). | **Current research lacks details on candidate campaign infrastructure development** Current research lacks details on candidate campaign infrastructure development. The available information does not sufficiently indicate which of the lesser-known candidates—Mayra Rivera-Vazquez, Robert Beers, KJ Atwood, or Diaz—has established a credible campaign infrastructure [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayra_Rivera-Vazquez). A credible infrastructure is defined by the hiring of a campaign manager with prior South Carolina congressional race experience and the opening of a physical campaign office in either Charleston or Beaufort. Most candidates confirmed; infrastructure details remain elusive. While the candidacies of Mayra Rivera-Vazquez, Robert Beers, and KJ Atwood for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District are confirmed by the provided sources, some of which include links to their campaign websites [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayra_Rivera-Vazquez), these sources do not provide specific details on the requested campaign infrastructure elements. Information regarding campaign manager experience in prior South Carolina congressional races or the presence of physical offices in Charleston or Beaufort for these candidates is absent. For the candidate Diaz, no specific sources were available for evaluation. ## Have Mac Deford's Endorsements Cleared the SC-01 Democratic Field? Democratic County Chair Endorsements | Majority (five or six out of nine) in SC's 1st Congressional District [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/charleston-county/deford-campaign-announces-wave-of-endorsements-in-south-carolinas-1st-district-race-congress-midterms) | Rival Candidate Withdrawals | No indication of rivals dropping out due to endorsements [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026) | Polling-Based Withdrawals/Endorsements | No candidate has withdrawn due to low polling or officially endorsed a stronger rival [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026) | **Mac Deford has secured significant endorsements in the South Carolina's 1st Congressional District Democratic race** Mac Deford has secured significant endorsements in the South Carolina's 1st Congressional District Democratic race. His campaign announced support from a majority of the district's Democratic County Chairs, specifically five or six out of the nine chairs [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/charleston-county/deford-campaign-announces-wave-of-endorsements-in-south-carolinas-1st-district-race-congress-midterms). These endorsements include chairs from Charleston, Beaufort, Berkeley, Colleton, Dorchester, Georgetown, Horry, and Jasper counties [[^]](https://abcnews4.com/news/local/charleston-county/deford-campaign-announces-wave-of-endorsements-in-south-carolinas-1st-district-race-congress-midterms). Despite Deford's endorsements, no rival has yet withdrawn from the race. While Mac Deford has secured backing from over **50%** of the district's Democratic county chairs, the available sources do not indicate that this action has prompted any rival to drop out [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026). As of the latest information, Mac Deford and Mika G. Gadson are listed as the current Democratic candidates for the 2026 election [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026). Furthermore, no candidate has withdrawn or endorsed based on low polling. There is no information in the available research to support the occurrence of a candidate polling below **5%** in a public poll officially withdrawing and endorsing a stronger rival [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** June 09, 2027 - **Closes:** June 09, 2027 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [EU loses a member before 2030?](/markets/elections/international/eu-loses-a-member-before-2030/) - [Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?](/markets/elections/international/will-alberta-vote-to-secede-from-canada/) - [Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?](/markets/elections/trump/will-trump-be-allowed-to-run-for-a-3rd-term/) - [Brazil Presidential election winner?](/markets/elections/brazil/brazil-presidential-election-winner/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.