# NJ-12 Democratic nominee?

NJ-12 (D)

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/nj-12-democratic-nominee/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** assigns meaningfully lower odds than the **market** for Jay Vaingankar becoming the NJ-12 Democratic nominee, at **42.5%** compared to the **market**'s **81.0%**.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Bonnie Watson Coleman benefits from incumbency and progressive party backing.** - Verlina Reynolds-Jackson secured crucial Mercer County 'county line' endorsement.
- Sue Altman demonstrates strong grassroots and in-district financial support.
- Jamel Mapp gained the Union County Democratic 'county line' endorsement.
- Candidate endorsements are fragmented, lacking a unified progressive-union choice.
- Local "favorite son/daughter" dynamics significantly influence candidate viability.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** With **0%** **probability** for both **model** and **market**, a 0.0x payout reflects undefined outcomes in the provided data.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Adam Hamawy | 52.0% | 26.4% | Market higher by 25.6pp |
| Sue Altman | 15.0% | 9.1% | Market higher by 5.9pp |
| Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | 15.0% | 9.1% | Market higher by 5.9pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Adam Hamawy | 52.0% | 26.4% |
| Sue Altman | 15.0% | 9.1% |
| Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | 15.0% | 9.1% |
| Brad Cohen | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Jay Vaingankar | 81.0% | 42.5% |
| Sam Wang | 9.0% | 5.7% |
| Adrian Mapp | 6.0% | 3.9% |
| Matt Adams | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elijah Dixon | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Little | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shanel Robinson | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Squire Servance | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sujit Sign | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: November 3, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market for the NJ-12 Democratic nominee shows a complete lack of price movement. The probability has remained static at 0.0% since the market's inception. The overall trend is perfectly sideways, with no fluctuations, spikes, or drops to analyze. This indicates a dormant market where no price discovery has yet occurred.

The most significant feature is the total absence of trading activity, with volume at zero contracts. This lack of participation is the reason for the static price; without trades, there is no pressure to move the price up or down. Consequently, it is impossible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels, as the price is simply resting at its absolute floor by default. The zero volume indicates a complete lack of market conviction from any side. The chart currently reflects a lack of interest or participation rather than an active consensus. The market is not providing any predictive signal in its present inactive state.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Adam Hamawy

#### 📈 April 24, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 36.0% to 46.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 18, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 10.0% to 19.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Sue Altman

#### 📉 April 20, 2026: 73.0pp drop

Price decreased from 98.0% to 25.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Adam Hamawy wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 NJ-12 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on April 18, 2026, and will close when the outcome occurs or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Outcomes will be verified using the Republican and Democratic Party websites, and employees of these source agencies are prohibited from trading.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Adam Hamawy | 45% | 52% | 52% | $1,849.71 | $1,782.35 |
| Adrian Mapp | 0% | 5% | 6% | $62 | $62 |
| Brad Cohen | 5% | 11% | 5% | $468.55 | $347.55 |
| Elijah Dixon | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Jay Vaingankar | 5% | 12% | 81% | $400.96 | $400.96 |
| Kyle Little | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Matt Adams | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sue Altman | 15% | 17% | 15% | $1,690.78 | $1,683.78 |
| Shanel Robinson | 2% | 8% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Squire Servance | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sujit Sign | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sam Wang | 0% | 7% | 9% | $173.87 | $173.87 |
| Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | 8% | 15% | 15% | $509 | $509 |

## Who Received NJ-12 Democratic Endorsements in Mercer and Union Counties?

Mercer County Endorsement | Verlina Reynolds-Jackson [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/reynolds-jackson-clears-field-to-win-mercer-endorsement-on-first-ballot/) |
Union County Endorsement | Jamel Mapp [[^]](https://www.newsbreak.com/news/4483396535079-union-county-democrats-back-mapp-for-watson-coleman-s-house-seat) |
Dual County Endorsement | No single candidate secured both [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/reynolds-jackson-clears-field-to-win-mercer-endorsement-on-first-ballot/) |

**Verlina Reynolds-Jackson secured the crucial Mercer County 'county line' endorsement**

Verlina Reynolds-Jackson secured the crucial Mercer County 'county line' endorsement. For the upcoming NJ-12 Democratic primary, Reynolds-Jackson received the official backing from the Mercer County Democratic Committee [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/reynolds-jackson-clears-field-to-win-mercer-endorsement-on-first-ballot/). Reports indicate she cleared the field to win this endorsement on the first ballot [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/reynolds-jackson-clears-field-to-win-mercer-endorsement-on-first-ballot/). Furthermore, she also gained an endorsement from the Mercer County Executive for her congressional bid [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/verlina-reynolds-jackson-endorsed-by-mercer-county-executive-for-nj-12/).

Jamel Mapp received the official 'county line' endorsement from Union County. Conversely, in Union County, the Democratic Committee has officially backed Jamel Mapp for the congressional seat [[^]](https://www.newsbreak.com/news/4483396535079-union-county-democrats-back-mapp-for-watson-coleman-s-house-seat). The Union County Democratic Committee's official page lists endorsed candidates for 2026, which includes this significant endorsement [[^]](https://unioncountydems.com/ucdc-endorsed-candidates-2026/).

No single candidate secured both Mercer and Union County endorsements. It is important to note that for the NJ-12 Democratic primary, no candidate has won the official 'county line' endorsement from both Mercer and Union counties. Reynolds-Jackson successfully obtained the endorsement in Mercer County [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/reynolds-jackson-clears-field-to-win-mercer-endorsement-on-first-ballot/), while Mapp secured the endorsement in Union County [[^]](https://www.newsbreak.com/news/4483396535079-union-county-democrats-back-mapp-for-watson-coleman-s-house-seat).

## How Do Sue Altman and Verlina Reynolds-Jackson's Campaign Funds Compare?

Sue Altman - Individual Contributions Under $200 | 29.0% [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12) |
Verlina Reynolds-Jackson - Individual Contributions Under $200 | 22.7% [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12) |
Sue Altman - Contributions From NJ-12 Zip Codes | 59.5% [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12) |

**A direct combined percentage for specific contributions is unavailable**

A direct combined percentage for specific contributions is unavailable. The available web research does not provide a single, combined percentage for "total funds raised from individual contributions under **$200** originating from within NJ-12 zip codes" [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12). However, an assessment of two distinct metrics—the percentage of individual contributions under **$200** and the percentage of contributions from within NJ-12 zip codes—offers insight into the extent of grassroots financial support and local district engagement. Based on these indicators, Sue Altman demonstrates stronger signs of both grassroots financial support and in-district funding [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12).

Sue Altman's campaign shows higher grassroots and local support. Her campaign has successfully raised a total of **$244,792** [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12). From this total, individual contributions under **$200** comprise **$70,891,** which accounts for **29.0%** of her overall funds [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12). Additionally, contributions sourced from within NJ-12 zip codes total **$145,584,** representing **59.5%** of her total funds raised [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12).

Verlina Reynolds-Jackson's campaign shows comparatively lower percentages. She has raised a total of **$214,357** [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12). For Reynolds-Jackson, individual contributions under **$200** amount to **$48,784,** constituting **22.7%** of her total funds [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12). Contributions originating from within NJ-12 zip codes for her campaign total **$98,604,** making up **46.0%** of her overall funds [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12). While both candidates receive grassroots and local financial backing, Sue Altman's campaign exhibits a higher percentage in both categories, indicating superior grassroots financial support [[^]](https://www.quiverquant.com/election-fundraising/house/NJ/12).

## Which NJ-12 Democratic Primary Candidates Have Major Endorsements?

NJ Working Families Party Endorsement | Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman [[^]](https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/new-jersey-working-families-party-endorses-down-ballot-candidates/) |
CWA District 1 Endorsement | Daniel Reynolds-Jackson [[^]](https://cwa1036.org/news/2026CongressEndorsements) |
NJEA Endorsement | No candidate listed for NJ-12 [[^]](https://election.njea.org/endorsements2025/) |

**No single candidate has secured endorsements from both progressive and union groups**

No single candidate has secured endorsements from both progressive and union groups. In the NJ-12 Democratic primary, no individual candidate has successfully obtained endorsements from both a major progressive organization, such as the New Jersey Working Families Party, and a major trade union, like CWA District 1 or the New Jersey Education Association. The distribution of endorsements among different candidates within the district indicates a lack of a unified "establishment-outsider" coalition [[^]](https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/new-jersey-working-families-party-endorses-down-ballot-candidates/).

Endorsements reveal distinct choices among leading organizations. Specifically, the New Jersey Working Families Party announced its endorsement for Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman in NJ-12 [[^]](https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/new-jersey-working-families-party-endorses-down-ballot-candidates/). In contrast, CWA District 1 (Communications Workers of America) publicly endorsed Daniel Reynolds-Jackson for Congress in CD-12 [[^]](https://cwa1036.org/news/2026CongressEndorsements). Furthermore, the New Jersey Education Association (NJEA) did not list an endorsed candidate for NJ-12 in its 2024 federal endorsements [[^]](https://election.njea.org/endorsements2025/).

## Do local endorsements impact NJ-12 primary in a fractured field?

Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | Four-term Trenton lawmaker; endorsed by Mercer County Executive [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/verlina-reynolds-jackson-endorsed-by-mercer-county-executive-for-nj-12/) |
Adrian Mapp | Plainfield Mayor; backed by Union County Democrats [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/plainfield-mayor-will-run-for-nj-12/) |
NJ-12 Democratic Primary | Thirteen candidates are running [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/04/17/thirteen-candidates-are-running-in-the-democratic-primary-for-new-jerseys-12th-congressional-district-on-june-2-2026/) |

**Evidence suggests a 'favorite son/daughter' dynamic benefits specific candidates**

Evidence suggests a 'favorite son/daughter' dynamic benefits specific candidates. This dynamic is evident for both Verlina Reynolds-Jackson and Adrian Mapp in the NJ-12 Democratic primary, as they consolidate significant support within their home municipalities and surrounding counties. Verlina Reynolds-Jackson, a four-term lawmaker from Trenton, has secured the endorsement of the Mercer County Executive, demonstrating strong localized backing in Mercer County [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/fr/verlina-reynolds-jackson-endorsed-by-mercer-county-executive-for-nj-12/). Similarly, Adrian Mapp, the mayor of Plainfield, has garnered support from the Union County Democrats, reflecting substantial organized party backing in his home county [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/plainfield-mayor-will-run-for-nj-12/).

Consolidating local support is crucial in a fractured primary election. This strategy is particularly relevant in the New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District Democratic primary, which features thirteen candidates [[^]](https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/04/17/thirteen-candidates-are-running-in-the-democratic-primary-for-new-jerseys-12th-congressional-district-on-june-2-2026/). In such a crowded contest, candidates who can secure overwhelming support within a specific geographic stronghold, such as their home municipality or county, may be able to win a plurality of votes even without widespread support across the district. This strategic approach is also evident with other candidates, including Brad Cohen, who has secured the Middlesex Democratic endorsement and holds an early fundraising advantage [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/cohen-easily-wins-middlesex-dem-endorsement-for-nj-12/).

## When Will NJ-12 Primary Campaign Spending Data Be Public?

Primary Election Date | June 2, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary)) |
Specific Spending Data Unavailable | Final 45 days (April 19 - June 2, 2026) [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NJ/12/2026/), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/) |
Future Data Source | Federal Election Commission (FEC) [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NJ/12/2026/), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/) |

**Detailed spending reports for the 2026 primary are not yet available**

Detailed spending reports for the 2026 primary are not yet available. The Democratic primary for New Jersey's 12th Congressional District is scheduled for June 2, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary)). As of the current date, specific spending reports on direct voter contact services, such as mailers, canvassing payroll, and phone banking, for the final 45 days before this primary (April 19 - June 2, 2026) have not yet been made public [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NJ/12/2026/), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/). This makes it impossible to identify which campaign demonstrates the largest allocation of funds towards these professional Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) operations.

Campaign finance reports will be released closer to the election. These specific expenditure details for the final 45 days leading up to the June 2, 2026, primary will only be filed and subsequently made public by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) closer to or after the election date in 2026 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NJ/12/2026/), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/). While some candidates, including Brad Cohen and Hamawy, have garnered attention for their early fundraising efforts in the 2026 cycle [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/hamawy-is-indeed-best-funded-dem-in-packed-nj-12-race/), [[^]](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/brad-cohen-has-early-fundraising-edge-in-developing-nj-12-field/), the currently accessible data pertains to general fundraising totals from earlier reporting periods, not the direct voter contact expenditures in the specified pre-primary window. Therefore, it is presently not feasible to ascertain which campaign will ultimately show the highest commitment of funds to direct voter contact services for the 2026 primary [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/NJ/12/2026/), [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey%27s_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary)), [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 03, 2027
- **Closes:** November 03, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.