# ND-AL Republican nominee?

In 2026

Updated: May 18, 2026

Category: Elections

Tags: Primaries
US Elections

HTML: /markets/elections/primaries/nd-al-republican-nominee/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Julie Fedorchak to be the ND-AL Republican nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- Incumbent Julie Fedorchak maintains an overwhelming financial advantage over challengers.** Alex Balazs secured the significant North Dakota Republican Party endorsement.
   The primary candidate list appears finalized by the April 6, 2026 deadline.
   Other challengers lack reported campaign resources or public polling support.
*   Public polling data for the 2026 North Dakota primary is currently absent.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **92%** **probability** vs 97c **market**, offering 1.0x payout multiple, despite Fedorchak's overwhelming financial lead.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alex Balazs | 5.0% | 3.9% | He secured the NDGOP endorsement, historically a significant factor in statewide Republican primaries. |
| Julie Fedorchak | 97.0% | 92.0% | She is the incumbent and has an overwhelming financial advantage, with over $1.1 million cash-on-hand. |
| Ferris Broxton | 5.0% | 4.1% | As a listed challenger, he lacks significant campaign resources, party endorsement, or public polling support. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Alex Balazs | 5.0% | 3.9% |
| Julie Fedorchak | 97.0% | 92.0% |
| Ferris Broxton | 5.0% | 4.1% |

- Expiration: June 9, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market, which asks about Julie Fedorchak becoming the Republican nominee for North Dakota's at-large House seat, has been characterized by a stable but very high price, suggesting strong confidence in a "Yes" outcome. The market opened with a 94% probability and has since traded within a narrow, elevated range between 89% and 97%. The most significant movement was a brief dip to 89% before a sharp reversal to the current high of 97%. Given the context that Fedorchak is an incumbent facing two challengers, this price action reflects a market sentiment that she is the overwhelming favorite for the nomination, a common starting point for markets involving an incumbent.

The trading volume in this market is exceptionally low, with a total of only 107 contracts traded across a handful of data points. This low liquidity indicates that very few participants are actively trading, and price swings may not reflect a broad shift in sentiment but rather the impact of small, isolated trades. The sharp move from 89% to 97% occurred on a volume of just one contract, underscoring the market's thinness. Despite the low volume, the consistently high price level establishes a clear sentiment. The 89% mark has acted as a temporary price floor or support, while the current 97% level represents the peak price and resistance. Overall, the chart suggests a strong and stable, albeit thinly-traded, consensus that the incumbent is on track to secure the nomination.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Julie Fedorchak wins the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 North Dakota at-large congressional district House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The outcome will be verified using official sources from the Republican Party and North Dakota election results. The market opened on January 28, 2026, and will close either when the nomination is decided or by June 9, 2027, at 10:00 AM EDT, with payouts 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

The North Dakota Republican primary for the state's sole U.S. House seat, scheduled for June 9, 2026, features incumbent U.S. Representative Julie Fedorchak and challenger Alex Balazs [[^]](https://apps.npr.org/primary-election-results-2026/states/ND.html). Beyond this established primary contest, there is no widely reported, specific prediction market or significant social media discourse identifying a contested North Dakota At-Large (ND-AL) Republican nominee [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/elections/north-dakota/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alex Balazs | 1.2% | 7% | 5% | $992 | $842 |
| Ferris Broxton | 0.2% | 5% | 5% | $642 | $642 |
| Julie Fedorchak | 89% | 97% | 97% | $930.33 | $824 |

## How have Republican incumbents in North Dakota's at-large district historically performed when facing primary challenges?

Fedorchak 2024 Primary Vote | 45.9% [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_election_in_North_Dakota,_2024_(June_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/julie-fedorchak-wins-north-dakota-us-house-republican-primary/article_f9d7d964-146d-11ef-86e6-b7e3bef51844.html)[[^]](https://northdakotamonitor.com/2024/06/11/fedorchak-wins-by-double-digits-in-5-way-republican-house-primary/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julie_Fedorchak) |
Armstrong 2020 Primary Vote | 99.5% [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_election_in_North_Dakota,_2022_(June_14_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_North_Dakota,_2022)[[^]](http://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_North_Dakota,_2020)[[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_election_in_North_Dakota,_2020_(June_9_Republican_primary)) |
Fedorchak 2024 Primary Candidates | 5 candidates [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_election_in_North_Dakota,_2024_(June_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/julie-fedorchak-wins-north-dakota-us-house-republican-primary/article_f9d7d964-146d-11ef-86e6-b7e3bef51844.html)[[^]](https://northdakotamonitor.com/2024/06/11/fedorchak-wins-by-double-digits-in-5-way-republican-house-primary/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julie_Fedorchak) |

**Republican incumbents in North Dakota historically faced minimal U.S**

Republican incumbents in North Dakota historically faced minimal U.S. House primary opposition. This trend is exemplified by Kelly Armstrong, who, as an incumbent, ran unopposed in the 2022 Republican primary. In the 2020 primary, he secured **99.5%** of the vote, facing only nominal write-in opposition [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_election_in_North_Dakota,_2022_(June_14_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_North_Dakota,_2022)[[^]](http://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_North_Dakota,_2020)[[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_election_in_North_Dakota,_2020_(June_9_Republican_primary)).

The 2024 primary marked a competitive shift for Julie Fedorchak, who was considered incumbent-equivalent. Breaking from past patterns, she competed in a five-candidate Republican primary and ultimately secured the nomination with **45.9%** of the vote [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_election_in_North_Dakota,_2024_(June_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/julie-fedorchak-wins-north-dakota-us-house-republican-primary/article_f9d7d964-146d-11ef-86e6-b7e3bef51844.html)[[^]](https://northdakotamonitor.com/2024/06/11/fedorchak-wins-by-double-digits-in-5-way-republican-house-primary/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julie_Fedorchak). Her notable challengers included Rick Becker, who garnered **29.6%**, and Cara Mund, who received **19.5%** of the vote [[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_election_in_North_Dakota,_2024_(June_11_Republican_primary))[[^]](https://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/julie-fedorchak-wins-north-dakota-us-house-republican-primary/article_f9d7d964-146d-11ef-86e6-b7e3bef51844.html)[[^]](https://northdakotamonitor.com/2024/06/11/fedorchak-wins-by-double-digits-in-5-way-republican-house-primary/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julie_Fedorchak).

Julie Fedorchak is the current Republican nominee for the 2026 election. As of May 2026, the available information does not detail any specific primary challenges she has faced for the upcoming 2026 election cycle [[^]](https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/states/north-dakota)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxndalr/republican-nominee-for-ndal/kxndalr-26)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhouserace/house-race-winner/kxhouserace-ndal-26).

## How do the fundraising totals and cash-on-hand of Julie Fedorchak and Alex Balazs compare in the latest pre-primary FEC filings for 2026?

Julie Fedorchak Cash-on-Hand | $1,183,138.35 (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ND00061/)[[^]](https://fedorchaknd.com/congresswoman-julie-fedorchak-ends-a-big-fundraising-quarter-with-over-a-million-cash-on-hand/) |
Julie Fedorchak Q1 2026 Fundraising | $410,771.11 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ND00061/)[[^]](https://fedorchaknd.com/congresswoman-julie-fedorchak-ends-a-big-fundraising-quarter-with-over-a-million-cash-on-hand/) |
Alex Balazs Cash-on-Hand | $1,488.40 (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ND00079/?tab=other-spending) |

**Fedorchak significantly leads Balazs in fundraising and cash-on-hand**

Fedorchak significantly leads Balazs in fundraising and cash-on-hand. As of the latest pre-primary FEC filings covering the period ending March 31, 2026, incumbent U.S. Representative Julie Fedorchak reported a substantially stronger financial position compared to challenger Alex Balazs, demonstrating significantly higher cash-on-hand and a substantial fundraising total.

Julie Fedorchak reported strong first-quarter fundraising and significant cash. Her campaign announced a first-quarter 2026 fundraising total of **$410,771.11** and reported **$1,183,138.35** in cash-on-hand by the end of the reporting period [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ND00061/)[[^]](https://fedorchaknd.com/congresswoman-julie-fedorchak-ends-a-big-fundraising-quarter-with-over-a-million-cash-on-hand/). These figures indicate a robust financial standing for the incumbent.

Alex Balazs reported minimal cash-on-hand, with no fundraising total. In contrast to Fedorchak, Alex Balazs reported **$1,488.40** in cash-on-hand as of March 31, 2026 [[^]](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4ND00079/?tab=other-spending). The available research did not provide information regarding Alex Balazs's fundraising total for the first quarter of 2026.

## Which major national conservative figures or groups have endorsed a candidate, and what impact could a last-minute endorsement have before the June 2026 primary?

National Conservative Groups Endorsing | Club for Growth PAC, Turning Point Action, Grassroots America - We The People [[^]](https://www.clubforgrowth.org/club-for-growth-pac-endorses-jackson-lahmeyer-in-ok-01-race/)[[^]](https://www.wmur.com/article/turning-point-action-endorses-anthony-dilorenzo/71288721)[[^]](https://gawtp.com/2026-republican-primary-endorsements/) |
Club for Growth PAC Endorsement | Jackson Lahmeyer in OK-01 [[^]](https://www.clubforgrowth.org/club-for-growth-pac-endorses-jackson-lahmeyer-in-ok-01-race/) |
Impact of Last-Minute Endorsements | Varies; can be decisive in Republican primaries [[^]](https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-candidates-tout-endorsements-as-primary-season-heats-up) |

**Conservative groups have endorsed candidates for the 2026 primary cycle**

Conservative groups have endorsed candidates for the 2026 primary cycle. Major national conservative groups, including Club for Growth PAC, Turning Point Action, and Grassroots America - We The People, have actively issued endorsements for the upcoming primary cycle [[^]](https://www.clubforgrowth.org/club-for-growth-pac-endorses-jackson-lahmeyer-in-ok-01-race/)[[^]](https://www.wmur.com/article/turning-point-action-endorses-anthony-dilorenzo/71288721)[[^]](https://gawtp.com/2026-republican-primary-endorsements/). Specifically, Club for Growth PAC has endorsed Jackson Lahmeyer in the OK-01 race [[^]](https://www.clubforgrowth.org/club-for-growth-pac-endorses-jackson-lahmeyer-in-ok-01-race/), Turning Point Action has expressed support for Anthony DiLorenzo in the NH-01 race [[^]](https://www.wmur.com/article/turning-point-action-endorses-anthony-dilorenzo/71288721), and Grassroots America - We The People has backed Jace Yarbrough in TX-32 [[^]](https://gawtp.com/2026-republican-primary-endorsements/). The available research does not specify which national conservative figures have endorsed candidates for the June 2026 primary.

Last-minute endorsements offer strategic advantages in primary races. These endorsements are frequently employed as a strategic tool to provide a closing surge or a counterweight in competitive primaries [[^]](https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-candidates-tout-endorsements-as-primary-season-heats-up). The potential impact of such an endorsement before the June 2026 primary can vary significantly [[^]](https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-candidates-tout-endorsements-as-primary-season-heats-up)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/news/impact-trump-endorsement-race-next-175135954.html)[[^]](https://bayouprogressive.com/2026/04/john-bel-edwards-backs-nick-albares-ahead-of-may-16-primary/). While these endorsements can be decisive in Republican primaries, particularly when originating from high-profile figures, their overall effect is contingent upon the candidate's existing momentum, the precise timing of the endorsement, and the specific political context of the race [[^]](https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-candidates-tout-endorsements-as-primary-season-heats-up)[[^]](https://www.aol.com/news/impact-trump-endorsement-race-next-175135954.html)[[^]](https://bayouprogressive.com/2026/04/john-bel-edwards-backs-nick-albares-ahead-of-may-16-primary/).

## What public polling data is available for the 2026 North Dakota Republican primary, and what is its record of accuracy in past statewide races?

Public Primary Polling Data | Not available for 2026 North Dakota Republican primary [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/nd-al-house-election-winner) |
ND Primary Polling Accuracy Record | No established, publicly tracked record [[^]](https://www.kfyrtv.com/2024/05/30/how-accurate-is-statewide-polling-analyst-explains/) |
Republican General Election Probability | Over 90% in prediction markets [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/nd-al-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/de/event/nd-al-house-election-winner) |

**Public polling data for the 2026 North Dakota primary is currently absent**

Public polling data for the 2026 North Dakota primary is currently absent. There is a notable lack of significant public polling data concerning the 2026 North Dakota Republican primary for the U.S. House at-large seat [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/nd-al-house-election-winner). This absence is primarily attributed to the widespread perception that the race is non-competitive for the incumbent, Julie Fedorchak, who is seeking re-election [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_Party_primaries_in_North_Dakota,_2026)[[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/nd-al-house-election-winner). This sentiment is further supported by prediction markets, which assign a high **probability**, exceeding **90%**, to a Republican victory in the general election [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/nd-al-house-election-winner)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/de/event/nd-al-house-election-winner). The 2026 North Dakota Republican primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026 [[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_Party_primaries_in_North_Dakota,_2026).

Statewide polling in North Dakota serves as a campaign tool. The scarcity of available polling aligns with the general view of statewide polling in North Dakota, which analysts tend to consider more useful for campaign strategy than as a precise predictive metric [[^]](https://www.kfyrtv.com/2024/05/30/how-accurate-is-statewide-polling-analyst-explains/). Consequently, there is no established, publicly tracked record of high-accuracy polling specifically for North Dakota primary races [[^]](https://www.kfyrtv.com/2024/05/30/how-accurate-is-statewide-polling-analyst-explains/).

## What is the historical success rate of NDGOP-endorsed candidates in contested statewide Republican primaries since 2010?

NDGOP Endorsement Significance | Historically significant, but not absolute indicator of primary success [[^]](https://mydakotan.com/2022/05/is-the-dual-nomination-process-good-for-north-dakota/)[[^]](https://primacysg.com/north-dakota-republican-primary-election-result-summary/) |
Unendorsed Candidate Success | Notable instances, including Doug Burgum in 2016 [[^]](https://mydakotan.com/2022/05/is-the-dual-nomination-process-good-for-north-dakota/)[[^]](https://primacysg.com/north-dakota-republican-primary-election-result-summary/) |
2026 Endorsement Process Status | Significant internal disruption; incumbents opted out, party failed to endorse full slate for first time in years [[^]](https://www.grandforksherald.com/opinion/columns/port-none-of-north-dakotas-statewide-gop-incumbents-are-seeking-partys-endorsement)[[^]](https://www.inforum.com/news/north-dakota/north-dakota-republican-party-fails-to-endorse-full-slate-of-statewide-candidates-for-1st-time-in-years) |

**No specific success rate is available for NDGOP endorsements**

No specific success rate is available for NDGOP endorsements. While the North Dakota Republican Party (NDGOP) endorsement has historically served as a significant indicator of a candidate's potential for success, a specific numerical historical success rate for NDGOP-endorsed candidates in contested statewide Republican primaries since 2010 is not available. The impact of the endorsement has varied over time, with notable instances of unendorsed candidates, such as Doug Burgum in 2016, successfully overcoming endorsed opponents in primary elections [[^]](https://mydakotan.com/2022/05/is-the-dual-nomination-process-good-for-north-dakota/)[[^]](https://primacysg.com/north-dakota-republican-primary-election-result-summary/).

The NDGOP endorsement process faces significant recent disruption. As of 2026, the party's endorsement system has encountered substantial internal upheaval. Many statewide incumbents have chosen to bypass the party's endorsement process entirely, indicating a shift in its traditional function. This evolving situation led to the NDGOP failing to endorse a full slate of candidates for the first time in many years, highlighting changing dynamics within the party's endorsement system [[^]](https://www.grandforksherald.com/opinion/columns/port-none-of-north-dakotas-statewide-gop-incumbents-are-seeking-partys-endorsement)[[^]](https://www.inforum.com/news/north-dakota/north-dakota-republican-party-fails-to-endorse-full-slate-of-statewide-candidates-for-1st-time-in-years).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The North Dakota at-large congressional district Republican primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026 [[^]](https://www.kfyrtv.com/2026/03/09/fedorchak-forgoing-nd-gop-party-endorsement-focusing-primary/)[[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota%27s_At-large_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota%27s_At-Large_Congressional_District).** Incumbent Julie Fedorchak is running for re-election against challengers including Alex Balazs and Ferris Broxton [[^]](https://www.kfyrtv.com/2026/03/09/fedorchak-forgoing-nd-gop-party-endorsement-focusing-primary/)[[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota%27s_At-large_Congressional_District_election,_2026)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota%27s_At-Large_Congressional_District). A significant development is that Rep. Fedorchak has opted to bypass the North Dakota GOP party endorsement process, choosing instead to focus directly on the June 9, 2026, primary election [[^]](https://www.kfyrtv.com/2026/03/09/fedorchak-forgoing-nd-gop-party-endorsement-focusing-primary/)[[^]](https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/north-dakota/a-growing-number-of-republican-incumbents-in-north-dakota-arent-seeking-or-receiving-party-endorsements)[[^]](https://www.ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota%27s_At-large_Congressional_District_election,_2026).

**It should be noted that there are no regularly scheduled U.S.** House elections in North Dakota in 2027 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_United_States_electoral_calendar)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_United_States_elections)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2027). The 2027 U.S. electoral calendar is primarily limited to off-year elections, involving state legislative and local races in states such as Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_United_States_electoral_calendar)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_United_States_elections)[[^]](https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2027).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** June 09, 2027
- **Closes:** June 09, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The North Dakota at-large congressional district Republican primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Incumbent Julie Fedorchak is running for re-election against challengers including Alex Balazs and Ferris Broxton [^] [^] [^] .
- A significant development is that Rep.
- Fedorchak has opted to bypass the North Dakota GOP party endorsement process, choosing instead to focus directly on the June 9, 2026, primary election [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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